Bosox West

No Santana, No Worries - For Now

2007-12-08T10:37:00.000-08:00

The Red Sox and the Twins conspired together throughout the days and long nights of baseball's winter meetings. They conspired not, apparently, to make a blockbuster trade involving Johan Santana and several of Boston's bluechip prospects, but rather to waste countless hours of productivity in their respective markets. Fans around the country (and in the Sox's case at least, globe) checked media outlets with breathless regularity, waiting to learn the outcome of the "wag the dog" production that was the Trade That Never Was.

In most circles, even the rarified fanbase air that are the Sox Prospects and Sons of Sam Horn messageboards, the failure of the teams to pull the trigger on a trade has been met with a soft relief from many posters. The cost of acquisition for most of the packages being thrown around was too much for Boston fans; and for the Twins, the thought of prematurely losing the face of the franchise was too agonizing.

Given the situation, this probably means that a fair trade was in place. The Red Sox should have to suck it up if they want to acquire the best left-hander in the business, and the Twins need to understand that Santana is leaving them, and they need to get some value back.

Twins GM Smith is walking a fine line right now. It would be hugely irresponsible for him to fail to get an excellent package for Santana, and the fact is that with other top-tier starters like Haren, Bedard, and Lincecum being shopped - all of whom are younger and will cost significantly less - he could end up without a chair when the music stops. That would be an unmitigated disaster: even if Liriano returns to health, the Twins will not compete next year. They just won't. And the midseason return on Santana will be far less than what's being offered now.

Still, Smith wouldn't pull the trigger, thinking he can get one of NYY or Boston to panic down the road and meet his demands (they are realistically the only two teams at the table). So the meetings came and went, and here we are with no Santana. And if you're a fan of a "homegrown" Sox team; if you're a fan of keeping the young players you've watched rise through the minors - not so much for Winning reasons, but for baseball reasons - you're okay right now. The emotional price was pretty high, and after everything was said and done, the family's still together.

Now, this deal could still go through, and everyone will understand if it does, and even celebrate. Nobody in their right mind could complain if the Sox sign Santana; especially if he only costs one of Lester or Ellsbury. He's too good, and it makes the Sox too good, and no matter the cost, those points are inarguable. But to many of us who wanted to watch a team of "our guys" go out there and compete, the cost will have been steep.

Moreover, the acquisition will just seem a little too "Yankee". And that might just be the highest price to pay of all.

Chasing Santana

2007-11-29T12:55:00.001-08:00

No doubt everyone is closely following the quest for Johan Santana, the Holy Grail of lefthanded pitching. The prevailing wisdom is that the trade market for the Twins has been narrowed down to three teams; the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox. The Dodgers seem to be a distant third however, so it's basically Yanks versus Sox, again.

Before I get into who might be changing hands, let's look at the dynamics for a minute.

Santana becomes an FA after next year, and it's already been made clear that the Twins cannot afford him. They could try to keep him and take a flyer on running the table next year with he and Liriano as a solid one-two punch, but it's unlikely. If that doesn't fly and they try to deal him mid-season but this would lessen the return for him. So there is some incentive to deal him now, for sure.

The Twins, however, do not utterly control the terms of this deal. Santana is the best pitcher to come available in a long, long time, but there are the dual constraints of his ongoing cost, and the fact that Bedard, Haren, and Willis are hanging out there as well. Moreover, it is still a case of teams betting against each other. The Twins can demand player X all they want, but if the price is too steep, it's too steep. Both teams know they (the Twins) are not going let themselves end up with just the compensatory draft picks, and this mutual ceiling is to the benefit of the Sox.

The ceiling I'm referring to is the "untouchables". For the Sox, it's probably Buchholz and Ellsbury, and for the Yanks it's Joba and Hughes. The benefit to the Sox is that if that ceiling stays the same for both teams, the Sox proposed package of Lester, Crisp, Lowrie and Masterson/Bowden wins. And let me tell you, if that package brings back Santana (and there is no reason it shouldn't, working in a vacuum; Bill Smith is getting a lot of major-league ready talent there), we should just rejoice, plain and simple.

If it doesn't, because NYY dealt Hughes (Joba I think probably is untouchable), then it sticks in the craw, but it's not a total disaster. The package would likely be Hughes, Cabrera, Jackson and Tabata or Hughes, Jackson and Cano. That would mean that they dealt two or three of their top prospects/young players to get Santana, and that helps the Sox out to some degree in the long run.

The reason it's not a total disaster is because the Sox will have kept Ellsbury, arguably the most exciting homegrown position player to put on a Sox uniform since Yaz, and Buchholz, a pitcher who is simply a mind-boggling talent.

If the Sox have to give up Ellsbury, and Santana stays healthy for the duration of his contract (this aspect has been largely ignored in all the discussion I've read - Santana has a lot of wear and tear on the arm and stumbled badly in the last couple months of 2007), it's a palatable trade. However, if they give up Buchholz, I don't like the deal. Buchholz is pretty well past the prospect stage now, and has every indication of being the next Santana himself - Keith Law recently stated that right now CBuck has the best change-up in baseball. It should be noted that this pitch is how Santana makes his money, working off a fastball that he commands better than Buchholz does his, but with a curveball that is far inferior to CBuck's.

Giving up the talent currently on the table, possibly with Ellsbury over Crisp in the deal, plus paying the $20-25M per year to extend Santana, makes some sense, because a rotation with Beckett, Santana, Buchholz, and DiceK in it for the next 5 years is simply insane. But when you factor in that you are trading what is likely to be equivalent talent in the one arm (Buchholz), plus three other players, plus the cost/risk of the extension - then the Sox are getting screwed. I say hell no. Hell no.

Give Thanks, Red Sox Nation!

2007-11-23T20:45:00.000-08:00

The national day of thanks has come and gone, and it was a banner one for Boston sports fans in 2007, especially here at Bosoxwest HQ.

Our firstborn son Miller arrived in the very, very, silly early AM on October 19th (taking me out of the blogosphere for the ALCS and World Series thereafter, obviously). His mom did the Nation proud. He is a healthy and happy baby boy, and remarkably, he has never witnessed a Red Sox (or Patriots) loss. Beckett stopped Cleveland while he was making his way into the world, and as we know the Sox got hot and ran the table from there. We give thanks for him every day.

I've been explaining to him that past performance may not be indicative of future returns, but for now, we're enjoying it. A huge, heartfelt thanks to the Twenty-Five for bringing home the hardware in 2007. This team was incredibly easy and fun to root for.

Ah. Boston Red Sox, World Series Champions. It has a nice ring, doesn't it? No pun intended.

The organization wasn't done there though: this is a process. The front office has publicly stated that they try to manage the personnel of the team with the goal of winning 95-96 games. Get to the dance, and try to get hot in the postseason. Obviously, this year proved that this recipe can bring success, but it also acknowledges that in baseball anything can happen. We should take a minute to give thanks to the Yankees who proved beyond argument that you can't simply buy a championship. That axiom frames the Sox F.O.'s strategy and makes it palatable to the rabid fan base here in the Nation.

Given the success of the current group of guys, the F.O. had a fairly simple offseason mandate - sign Mike Lowell. We were all tempted by the shiny bauble that is A-Rod but that was a path fraught with peril. A Boras bidding war can destroy an offseason in it's entirety - they could have ended up with neither player, and Plan C really looked like shit (Joe Crede, anyone?). Then, assuming they "won" the A-Rod sweepstakes, the signing itself is a risky proposition. One, you've got 20% of your payroll tied up in a position player who's 32, and this goes on for 10 years (although the percentage maybe shrinks, the cost for production doesn't). Two, if he gets hurt you are screwed, because that contract is pretty much uninsurable after three years. And three, there are the character questions. It's hard to argue A-Rod makes any team worse in the short-term, but the equation did not include a short-term component.

So fan and clubhouse favorite Mikey Lowell returns, and on the terms the F.O. wanted, a three-year deal. Nearly every predictive analysis has Mike's production dropping off going forward, and I'm of the opinion he had a career year in 2007, but I think he's a very smart ballplayer who made some adjustments in his approach to the game this year. The home run power will almost certainly slide, as it has, but if he can continue to control the strike zone and improve in hitting to all fields, he'll still put up good offensive numbers. The second piece is the key: Lowell is an historic pull hitter who doesn't drive the ball the other way well, although he worked on that this year. He'll need to protect the outside half of the plate in order to get pitches he can put his power swing on. But he still has a short, compact swing, and I think he'll adjust okay. People are also forgetting that Drew should offer better protection next year, making Lowell's job easier.

Statistics aside, I'm a believer in "chemistry", or basically attitude, and I think it benefits the team to have a guy like Mike on the field and in the clubhouse who keeps guys focused on staying in the moment. It has to be incredibly difficult to stay focused on the task at hand in the Boston madhouse, and the team needs lodestones in order to succeed. Mikey is such a player.

So thanks to Mikey Lowell. As if it weren't enough he led us to a World Series victory, he took less money and fewer years to stay with the Nation. Regardless of what he does between now and 2010, he deserves a place in the pantheon.

The Hunt For Red Santana

The saga of the offseason will center around Johan Santana. The Yankess obviously cannot allow the Sox to acquire him, but the Sox, while they would hate for the Yankees to do so, would probably more easily see the silver lining in the price they paid. Having Crisp as a "surplus" trading piece makes the deal more palatable f or Boston - the MFYs would probably need to deal two of Joba/Hughes/Kennedy, plus a Tabata.

That said, I am on the fence. Santana has a lot of miles on him, will command a ridiculous salary, and we'd be letting go our best young arm (I cannot imagine any way they accept Lester over Buchholz, really). There are no guarantees in this game, so Buchholz may not be the ace we think he is, but also, as they say, TINSTAAPP.

There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect.

What that means is that by and large, pitchers are born not made. It is normally used to refute assertions that Player A will acquire pitching skills as he matures. Once a pitcher reaches a certain level, what you see is what you are getting. There is of course upside due to growth (and with CBuck this is the truly scary part), but you know if he's a pitcher or not. And we know Buchholz is a pitcher. There has never been any doubt of that. He may not be Santana, but he's much younger, cost-controlled, and doesn't cost other players.

I really am ambivalent. It would be pretty hard to complain about watching Santana in a Sox uniform. And yeah, it would suck pretty hard to see Johan in a MFY uni, but it would be pretty freaking cool to watch Buchholz take the majors by storm. Depending on how you look at it, I guess they call this a win-win.

I'll say thanks for that, too.

Sox Drop Game 3 To Indians, Gorman, God.

2007-10-16T09:10:00.000-07:00

If you're like me, you ended Saturday night saying to yourself "That was the worst fucking game I have watched since the talentless Aaron Boone ended the 2003 season". But then along comes Game 3, and it just blows Game 2 out of the water. In the future when mankind's brains and technology are developed enough that you can compress several hours of information into a single impression, this game will be in the dictionary next to "Murphy's Law".

Let's start with the basic, unassailable premise, which is this: in an Indians-Red Sox game where the starters are Jake Westbrook and DiceK, the Red Sox should win 9 of 10 matchups. This is unarguable, because while DiceK is a little shaky at times, Jake Westbrook absolutely sucks. No, really - he sucks.

So what went wrong?

Approach

Well, pretty much everything went wrong, but let's start with the approach at the plate. As an organization the Red Sox stress taking a lot of pitches and getting starters pitch counts up. This has the dual benefits of tiring the starter so they can get to him, get him out, and feast on the generally weaker middle relief. It worked well against CC and Carmona because they are both guys who throw hard with excellent stuff but shitty command. As we all know, the end result was disastrous on Saturday but the approach was correct.

Against a guy like Westbrook who has good command but crappy stuff, it's not the best idea to take a ton of pitches, because he NEEDS to pitch ahead in the count to be successful. If you give him strike one every at-bat, you're playing right into his hands. But that's exactly what the Sox did. Moreover, against Cleveland whose bullpen is fantastic, there is no advantage to getting to them early because Lewis and Betancourt will just shut down your weak-ass bats. The Sox should have been pounding a few first pitch strikes to make Westbrook nibble a bit and get behind in a few counts, but they didn't.

Adding the this mess was the execution. Westbrook, Lewis and Betancourt all threw quite a few mistakes that guys missed, although given the stuff the latter two have it's more forgivable. No matter what you're approach is, when you get your pitch, you need to hit it. And when you load the bases with nobody out against a guy as bad as Westbrook, that should be it - game over.

Home Plate Umpire Brian Gorman

And....speaking of bases loaded situations...the Sox would have had another bases loaded situation but for the simply unbelievable incompetence (or is it Tim Donaghy Redux?) of home plate umpire Brian Gorman, who called strike one on a ball four pitch to Manny that was so far off the plate that the Fox strike zone imaging software could barely register it in the graphic. He later screwed Coco Crisp on ball four on a pitch that was very nearly as bad. Both incidents resulted in rally-killing at-bats that can be laid squarely at the feet of an umpire who called one of the worst and most one-sided ball/strike games in recorded history. On the flip side, DiceK struck out Casey Blake in the fifth but Gorman called it ball three, and Blake went on to single on the next pitch, and then score what proved to be the winning run. With the exception of a terrible first strike call on Pronk, every bad call went against the Sox. Conspiracy theorists, get our your pens.

Let's go to the visual aid!

Here is the strike one pitch to Manny, which if called correctly, puts Manny on first to load the bases with one out and Mike Lowell, the team's best RBI man, stepping to the plate. As I call it, "Gorman's Coup de Grace":

Here is strike two (see #5) to Coco in the seventh, which if called correctly would have put him on first with one out (in front of a Lugo single although that can't be assumed once the Coco play has changed). Having the fastest player on the team on base with one out and the second fastest player at the plate might have changed the context of that inning, you think?

And, here is ball three to Blake (see #5 and note it's vertical match to strike one), which, had Gorman correctly rung him up, probably keeps the score tied at two. I'm thinking that's a significant missed call, especially in light of it being ball three, meaning Blake got to look strike-zone-only on the next pitch.

And, for those of you who might be wondering if the knees was too low to be considered within Gorman's strike zone, here is a strike call from two batters later:

Obviously, I am pissed that Gorman fucked over my team. That said, the Sox should have beaten the crap out of Jake Westbrook. Last night's loss is firmly on the offense. But how is it possible that in one of the most important games of the year, we have to put up with this shit? I mean, these are not tough calls, in most cases they are painfully obvious. The pitch to Manny was so far inside you'd think that Gorman would have to have an astigmatism or be on crack to call it a strike. It makes no sense that MLB can't remedy this situation because it detracts from the game and leaves everyone feeling cheated.

God, Karma, Elementary Particles - Whatever

Lastly, in our Perfect Storm of Suck, we have the current that runs through baseball like water, and the reason we have the term "small sample size" in discussing the game. Luck. A lot of people will be bitching about DiceK's inability to get out of the 5th again, and it is certainly true that he should never, ever, give up a dinger to the scrawny girlish corpse of Kenny Lofton, but as per usual DiceK died by the seeing-eye groundball.

The hit by Cabrera (which scored the should-have-been-sitting-in-the-dugout Casey Blake), by rights, should have been a routine out, but Pedroia wasn't positioned up the middle, which he should have been with Cabrera hitting with two strikes and Tek set up outside. That is on the first base coach Luis Alicea who as a former middle infielder should know better. The hit by Garko that put him on base for Lofton was a weak piece of shit that barely made it to the outfield. These are the breaks, and DiceK, for whatever reason, rarely gets them.

On the other hand, when Papi hits a screamer right on the screws, it goes directly into the face of the Indians' right fielder. That's baseball. At this level, you need some luck, and the Sox aren't getting it.

Final Analysis: DiceK

All things being said, and this is an ongoing source of frustration to everyone in Red Sox Nation, DiceK remains a mystery. He has never dominated like he should have this season. To some degree this is caused by the incredible hazing he has received from the umps all year. Nobody on the staff gets squeezed as harshly as DiceK does. To a greater extent, this is caused by the fact that the Sox have forced him to pitch off his fastball all year - his weakest pitch. It was good to see some at-bats last night where DiceK led off with a secondary pitch for a strike. When he does this it puts hitters at a real disadvantage. Overall, I didn't consider it a bad start at all. He made one mistake to Lofton, who correctly noted that Tek had started every hitter in the game off with a fastball, and he gave up a couple bleeders that put the game out of reach after Gorman squeezed him. If he gets one break we are not discussing him at all today.

Overall though, DiceK hasn't shown the ability to dominate hitters when he needs to. The expectations, which were unreasonably high, granted, were that when DiceK got in trouble he would simply confound batters so much that they would screw themselves into the ground striking out. That hasn't happened, clearly. I am in the camp that DiceK and Tek will reach a unified plan of attack for next season and we will see some great pitching by the young ace, but it would have been nice to see that last night.

Final Analysis: Sox Offense

What to say here? Everything is wrong. The biggest issue of course is this: all the runs come from 2-5. While Pedro is slumping pitchers are looking at 6 consecutive weak bats. That is just devastating. In games where Manny, Papi and Lowell are contained this team has literally zero shot of winning.

The double-plays of course are killing us too. The Sox just broke a record for most DPs in the first three games of a playoff series. That's not one teams have been chasing, people. That's like breaking the record for most times having explosive diarrhea during a sales presentation. No bueno. Some of this is Tito's ultra-conservative approach, some of this is the umps being awful, but mostly it's just sucking.

Last night came down to this: when Sox batters got their pitch they missed it. When you're behind in the count, as they were often enough, it gets tougher to be aggressive, but especially with Westbrook on the mound, there isn't much excuse.

Tonight

One of the problems with the Saturday game was that it was so long and physically exhausting, after a travel day. On average the Indians are a younger team than the Sox and probably bounced back quicker. But now the Sox are up against it. It's time to grind out a win.

I am in the minority that is OK with Wake starting tonight. Can he suck? Sure, we all know Bad Timmeh's dastardly resume. But Byrd's home ERA at the Jake is 5.68. If Wake sucks worse than that, if the offense doesn't come to life and score a bunch off a pretty bad starting pitcher, then this team doesn't deserve to advance. It's that simple people. Even if they threw Tavarez out there we should expect a win tonight. If they don't win, they are not good enough to win. End of story. And if they do win, it's pretty unlikely that Schill and DiceK would beat CC and Carmona. We'll need Beckett to take one of those games.

The bottom line is that the Sox are behind the eight-ball here. Cleveland is a well-constructed team who have taken advantage of a few breaks and a little help from the boys in blue. The Sox need to run uphill from here, but there will be no excuses if they don't get it done. There isn't a human being on earth that will feel badly to see a team paying J.D. Drew $14M a year go down to a spunky if less-heralded ballclub. That's the American dream. Time was, the Sox represented that, but now, love them though I might, they aren't any kind of underdogs any more.

Still, romance be damned: I expect these boys to go to work and get the job done.

ALDS Game 1: The Bosoxwest Live GameBlog

2007-10-03T15:35:00.000-07:00

6:05 That's all she wrote! Anderson drives one deep to center but Crisp is there to catch the flyball for the final out. Beckett with a dominant complete game shutout of the Angels to set the tone for the Sox. I disagree with the decision to send him back out there, but it worked out. Huge effort by the kid. If the bats come alive tomorrow we will be in good shape.

6:04 Vlad grounds one cleanly up the middle for a hit. Considering the location and flatness of the pitch, not a bad outcome.

6:04 OCab continues to help out with a first-pitch grounder to Lowell. Two down and the Beast approaching the plate.

6:02 Tito sends Beckett out for the 9th in an attempt to weaken him. He's good like that. Figgins again gets his pitch and lines it to left, but thankfully Ellsbury makes a diving catch to save the day. His cape is cool.

5:59 Santana hangs a curve to Manny and he pops it up. These guys have really cashed it in.

5:57 Ortiz rips two pitches foul to go 0-2, gets back to 3-2....and gets a good pitch to hit but pops up to center field. Huh? What just happened? Is Santa dead?

5:55 Youks does that slappy thing to fly weakly to right for the first out of the inning. The slappy thing doesn't work too often.

5:50 Kendry Morales pinch hits. You can tell by his gut that he has some power, and possibly some snacky cakes stored away in the uniform. This discombobulates Beckett to the point that he throws a wild pitch. Beckett crosses the 100-pitch mark for strike two, then backdoors him for his 8th strikeout of the night to close down the inning, and probably his night. Nasty stuff.

5:48 Beckett apparently hears the Announcer Corpse badmouthing the sharpness on his curveball and hits Admiral Aybar with a nasty one for strike one, then gets a quick strike two. The Admiral chops one to second and beats the DP throw for a tasty FC.

5:47 Kendrick battles to stay alive, then singles between a diving Lowell and a picking-his-glove-up-too-sooning Lugo. He really does it all.

5:45 Kotchman grounds to first, and the best First Baseman in baseball fields it cleanly and throws to Beckett for the first out. Youks.

5:41 Pedroia goes down on a nasty curveball, but has looked pretty bad tonight. He needs to get on track pronto. Heading into the eighth.

5:40 Watching Crisp and Lugo hit back to back is truly agonizing, isn't it? The difference is, at least with Lugo you could see how the mechanics could work; it's just that he doesn't understand hitting at all. Crisp's swing simply makes no physical sense. Anyway, Lugo shocks everyone by striking out. Two down.

5:37-9 My desire to light Dane Cook on fire reaches an almost irresistible fever pitch. Why? Why have they done this to us? TBS sucks. Ervin Santana, who was destroyed by being on two of my fantasy league teams this year, comes in. Crisp embarrasses the uniform again, popping to third. One down.

5:35 Beckett continues to shake off Tek (or appear to shake him off by design) and gets Izturis to ground into an FC by Pedroia on the cut fastball. Three down, and he's still under 90 pitches for the game.

5:33 Good-lookin'-out by Anderson who first-pitch pops up. Two down.

5:30 In a strange twist, Vlad appears to be swinging for the fences. Beckett stays away from him with repeated curveballs before trying to bust him inside, but Vlad uses his amazing powers of contact to stay alive before the umpire reverse fucks Beckett by not calling strike three on the same pitch that got Manny and Youks. Vlad singles on the next pitch, and Vegas Vice continues their investigation into home plate umpire Darling.

5:29 Beckett gets behind in the count to Cabrera 2-1 but gets him to ground to Lugo. One down. Amazingly, Lugo still alive.

The Sox appear to have taken a brief nap here, with the exception of Beckett. But I guess he's the one that counts. TBS does Lackey a favor by spending a few minutes in an horrifically unflattering camera portrait of him on the bench. John thanks you, guys.

5:25 After fouling off the hit'n'run pitch, Varitek looks nobly to the third base coach for a few minutes before hitting into another double-play. His beard was unavailable for comment.

5:21 Lowell breaks his bat on a grounder to O-Cab. Drew comes up in his most likely scenario to do well - a low pressure situation. He gets on with some help from Lackey. I so badly want him to play like he's able, but I guess that's his deal: not to.

5:20 Frank Thomas barely refrains from beating his co-anchor to death before Cal Ripken saves the day. When they cut back to the studio it's like watching The Office.

5:18 Figgins gets the one pitch he can hit (go figure how this happens again) but lines it to center field, where defensive genius Coco makes a sliding catch.

5:18 Beckett shakes off Tek a few times and gets Willits swinging on a nasty breaking pitch. Willitts vows revenge as he stalks off the field, then goes back to work on subject-verb agreement.

5:16 Napoli tries the "I Dare You To Throw It Where I'm Swinging" approach, and fails. One down.

5:11 Manny tries to pull an outside fastball and misses it. I get angry. Round two to Manny. Takes call three: count is full.....and ump fucks Manny on strike three. That is now three called strikes that were not really close, and it's time to start wondering if "Darling" is another word for "Donaghy".

5:10 Manny misses the best pitch he'll see to hit all playoffs. I get angry. Around we go.

5:09 Lackey dances around Ortiz, and eventually walks him to face Manny, who is, oddly, being Manny.

5:07 Youks gets fucked by the ump on strike two but works the count full. While battling Lackey during the AB he is also battling him for the crown of King Perspiration. He is later fucked by the ump on strike three; just a terrible, terrible call. Two down.

5:04 Pedroia still looking very uncomfortable at the plate, but gets a pitch he likes and puts good wood on it. Starting to come around, perhaps. One down for Youks.

5:01 After drilling a long strike into the RF seats, Kotchman non-drills a short strike into Tek's mitt to sit his ass back down. One pitch later Kendrick bounces out to Pedroia, and Beckett walks slowly back to the dugout after telling Lugo to fuck off (I assume).

4:58 As we listen to Corpse and Stone discussing the Beckett trade, the question really becomes: can Theo trade to get Ramirez back from Florida? Beckett gets Izturis to pop up for the first out, before TBS cuts over to their Announcing Sideline Puppet, with Moustache.

I, like the Angels, sit during the commercial break thinking that you couldn't draw up a better half inning to shift the momentum. I seriously hope Beckett is handing out nougies like candy in the dugout right now.

4:51 Lugo continues operation "Let Them Back Into The Game" by swinging at the first pitch and eventually striking out looking embarrassed. He'll be gone next year.

4:50 Tek idiotically avoids taking a pitch off the arm to get on base, then badly misses a ball way out of the strike zone to K. Just a painful, painful AB to watch. One second later Crisp puts together the worst AB of the season.

4:47 Ouch. Anderson looked silly on a swinging strike three. At least he can play the pinkeye card. It's a useful one.

4:45 Vlady-dady, he likes to party, and ground to short. Lugo makes the play and there is a puzzled muttering from the Fenway faithful.

4:44 O-Cab over-matched, Ks on a hard inside FB. Not a chance.

4:42 Beckett back out with a four run lead. He is throwing gas.

4:40 Drew infuriates everyone again by taking a perfect first pitch then hitting into an easy DP on the second. How does he do it? His every move is calculated to achieve maximum fan rage.

4:38 Lowell at 3-2 now, Manny on second.........soft liner to center - MANNY SCORES! 4-0 Sox!

4:36 Lowell takes a fist pitch hack, unwisely. Lackey badly overthrowing his pitches now, and appears to be really overheating. Bizarrely Manny takes second on a wild pitch.

4:34 Manny goes 3-2 in the count, making it a successful AB.....follows it up with foul ball and finally works the walk. Another batter in the inning for Lackey, who is nearing a gaseous state.

4:31 PAPI GOES YARD!! Lackey hangs the curve and Papi just lights it up. 3-0 Sox.

4:31 Youks shows the speed as he doubles to left. Takes a quick break for some oxygen and a sandwich. Papi up with a RISP.

4:29 Pedroia does the exact opposite of what he is supposed to do. It looks like another early season slump for DP. Popup, one out.

4:25 Figgins misses strike three by juuuuussst a tad. Beckett with a quick inning; rushes back to the dugout to let Lugo and Crisp out of their lockers so they can un-wedgie themselves.

4:23 Willitts doing exactly what he does: being a minor nuisance that you would like to crush, like a small, tic-lipped gnat. Manny makes a casual play on his lazy fly ball, proving that you don't have to use the word "lazy" twice in a sentence if you don't want to.

4:21 Lowell shows Lugo how baseball is played with a great play on a tough Napoli shot to the corner. Lugo calls home to make sure those damn kids are off his lawn.

4:17 Lugo Assassination Guild sets a timetable for their assault after Lugo makes a lazy slide and turns a stolen base into an out. Emulating Varitek, Lugo begins playing with a red dot on his uniform chest.

4:15 Lugo says "Look, Ellsbury fanclub, even I can hit this guy!" Ellsbury fanclub sets a timetable for their assault.

4:14 Crisp, being strictly a fastball hitter, gets down two on junk pitches then swings at a ball to create a doubleplay. The Ellsbury fanclub starts loading their weapons.

4:12 Varitek steps to the plate featuring his recently created beard made of iron filings, and uses the extra power to line a single to right. El Capitan!!

4:09 Proving that cheaters never win and winners never cheat, except in American business, politics, religion, and sport, Kendrick flies out to Crisp in center.

4:07 Kendrick A-Rods one, and gets another chance to hit after some timely cheating. Nicely done Howie! The kids appreciate you!

4:07 Thank you. Appreciate it. A curveball gets Kotchman to ground to Pedroia, who robot-shovels it up.

4:06 After getting ahead 0-2 Beckett inexplicably throws a reachable fastball. Again. Is it too much to ask to see a goddamn secondary pitch?

4:04 Announcer jinx rolls both ways. I am still trying to determine if Robinson or Stone is the Undead.

Couple commercial break thoughts here. One Lackey is a sweater. Jesus. I hope they have a spare uniform for him. He looks like the douchebag senator from the X-Men movie after Magneto got ahold of him. Two, he is not throwing the junk for strikes and isn't commanding the fastball well at all. The Sox need to sit on him until he gives them one.

4:01 Drew dribbles a ball (that he should have beat out) softly to short. Great. Much better Lord, thanks a bunch.

4:00 Please, Lord, do not let me see a 2-out, bases loaded at-bat for Tek, I am begging you.

3:58 Announcer jinx is set to High, as the Studio Corpse gets Lowell to pop tamely out into foul territory. Seriously, who the fuck is this guy?

3:57 Manny tells me to Suck It, rips one down the left-field line. Good job Manny.

3:57 Manny goes out of the strike zone early and gets behind 0-2. Good job Manny.

3:55 Lackey having a little trouble with the zone. If Papi can get on and extend the inning this could be a long inning for the kid. He beat me to it! Single, Big Boy!

3:54 Robinson and Stone talk briefly about Manny's defensive expertise, then go on to document Martha Stewart's history of philanthropy.

3:52 YOOOOUUUUUKKKKKK!! I guess my kid's first dad-made book will be entitled "The Hairy Mensch That Could".

3:50 Pedroia injudiciously swings at the second pitch. Hey, it's his first playoff game in the Bigs. Now he's so pissed he'll be fine.

3:46 I realize I had confused Kendrick with Anderson vis-a-vis the pinkeye. This now makes the Scioscia decision to bat Kendrick 7th completely flummoxing. Looking at him I can only surmise Olive Loaf had something to do with it.

3:45 Chone Figgins proves the awkward postulate that he can beat the Sox by himself.

3:44 Angels pull the old "run and hit", with OCab helping his old team out by swinging at a ball after Figgins had already stolen second. Gracias mi amigo.

3:41 Prediction here is stolen base, with Lugo attempting to catch the throw with his "prehensile nipple". He talks about it a lot in the offseason.

3:40 Six straight fastballs to start the game, ending predictably in a hit. Testicles crawling up into abdomen early tonight.

3:35 Will I be able to do this every game? No. But tonight I will. I have a fresh beer, Beckett's already up in the strike zone, what could go wrong? Living the dream!

Sox Take On The Halos: ALDS 2007

2007-10-03T12:56:00.000-07:00

After a truly agonizing 4 months our beloved / beloathed Red Sox held on both to clinch the AL East for the first time in 12 years and finish the season with the best record in the AL. This allowed them to set the tone for the playoffs by starting it up early, and Wednesday we begin the post-season agony in a familiar way: taking on the Angels.

While the Sox edged the Angels over the course of the year 6-4 in ten games (and correspondingly outscored them 64-42, largely on the basis of a few blowouts), the two teams are fairly well-matched, in spite of their opposing offensive philosophies. The Angels have very little power (less now that Matthews Jr. is out) and create runs by being extremely aggressive on the basepaths and playing a lot of small-ball. The Sox, obviously, do not. Both teams will put the theory that Championships are won with pitching and defense to the test - the Sox were #3 in the AL in Runs Scored and Anaheim (I refuse to call them Los Angeles due to the incredible douchiness of that move) is right behind them at #4.

Tonight's game will feature the aces of the respective staffs in Beckett and Lackey. Both pitchers will be looking to make amends; Lackey for his 0-2 record and 8.38 ERA in Fenway this year, and Beckett for the awful outing against Minnesota last week. The primary focus for Lackey will be overcoming the mental aspects of having taken such a beating in his last two starts at Fenway. Fortunately for him he doesn't seem too bright, so he can probably barely recall those outings. For Beckett, it's the same focus as every other outing: throw his secondary pitches for strikes to keep hitters honest on the fastball, and keep the fastball down. Oh, and not get so insanely filled with rage that all bets are off.

Anaheim will need Anderson to stay hot (September OPS .952) in order to protect Vlad and generate some quick offense, and they will need Izturis, slotted 5th in the order, to produce like a #5 hitter. At the bottom of the order they'll want Willitts to be the spark-plug he was earlier in the season. If he and Figgins can frustrate Beckett with long at-bats he may revert to overthrowing the fastball against the meat of the order, and Kotchman, Guerrero and Anderson will tee it up.

To me, the bizarre placement of Izturis in the 5-hole, with Kendrick batting 7th, is the X factor here. In spite of two pretty serious hand injuries Kendrick put up great numbers this year, and has been raking in August and September, but he has pinkeye. If this is affecting him to the extent that he has to move down in the order I guess I'm not sure why he's playing, but so be it. If he can see the ball, he can hit it, and he could do some damage. If not, we'll just be thankful we're not facing Morales.

The Sox are going to need to get to Lackey early while he's still thinking. This means Youkilis is going to have to ask someone in JP to sacrifice a fucking chicken or something to bring him back to life. He has struck out in nearly 30% of his at-bats since the beginning of August - not the mark of your typical #2. He historically has enjoyed hitting in the 2-hole but with his and Pedroia's total lack of speed at the top of the order, I could easily see myself ending the 2007 season by writing a kids book for my newborn son entitled "Everybody Poops... On His Team By Killing Innings With the DP". His performance will be a key to the series.

And why is that? That is because the 7-9 spots in the order can be devastatingly awful, like having three consecutive pitchers hitting. Only Crisp has shown any signs of life. Lugo and Varitek have combined since the ASB to put together the worst offense this team has seen from two players since the days of Buford and Lewis. The most amazing part? Lugo's September was worse than his April. I know I wasn't the only one hoping for him to blow a hammie on order to get Lowrie some September ABs and onto the 40-man. I've held out hope that he would figure it out for a long time, but I think it's time we accept Julio is a little too emotional for Fenway. On the plus side, much maligned iceman JD Drew definitely cometh, and not a month too soon.

So. At this point we've spent months watching a team that has been more frustrating than impressive in most cases. The blown 14.5 game lead, the LOB-fests, the bizarre management decisions - it's been a roller-coaster ride. But now it's a new season: the Post-Season. Manny's back, Schill's back, and despite a myriad of other question marks, you have to acknowledge that this team has a chance. I've moved from the ledge to a small portable camping chair a few feet away from the ledge, and I hope to stay there for a few days at least.

Faithless: The Final Chapter in the Saga of Roger Clemens

2007-05-07T10:31:00.000-07:00

The news came in yesterday: Clemens heads back to the Toilet. I was a little surprised, but only in that I thought it would be a few weeks until he made his decision. One thing I can say with certainty: I knew he would not be pitching for the Boston Red Sox in 2007.

It was always between the Yankees and Houston, and what they could offer the game's greatest (or most mercenary) arm-for-hire. And when I say offer, do not cloud the issue with things like "history" or "Championships" or "fans" - this was a retail decision. The Yankees would outbid everyone, that was a mortal lock. But Houston is in Clemens' back yard, and there was a convenience factor there. Unfortunately, they could not pony up the cash, and they suck. In the end, Roger went for the cash, as always.

The Sox were never really in the bidding - we didn't need him enough to mortgage the farm like New York did, we are inconveniently located, Dan Shaughnessy works in Boston, and Clemens hates Boston like Bush hates education. Sure, Clemens' uttered a few trite sentimental phrases, but at this point one can almost believe that was just to get the more gullible fans' hopes up so he could shatter them. Is it possible he was still exacting revenge on the Hub, after so much time?

The question I would ask is: why wouldn't he? The key tenet in understanding the mind of a top-level professional athlete is this - they are the center of the universe. Some people, especially in Boston, seem to feel that since they buy the tickets, memorabilia, and overpriced vittles that pay the athlete, this engenders a synchronous relationship between the player and the fans. And sometimes, like in the case of a Trot Nixon or Tim Wakefield, the player has enough moral fiber to make this true.

In the case of a Roger Clemens, this is not true. The fan perspective, rather finely put by Bill Simmons on numerous occasions, just doesn't seem to resonate with Roger. To Red Sox Nation, Clemens essentially tanked his last few years in Boston, boozing and whoring (according to many anecdotal references) his way through the season before moving on to Toronto and suddenly working his ass off to win Cy Youngs, and then committing the ultimate betrayal by going to New York. It was inexcusable, a shockingly vengeant "fuck you" to the fans who brought him into this world as a young rookie in 1984 at the tender age of 21, and lavished love and support on the pitcher through his 13 years in the organization.

To be fair to Clemens, there is a third person in the equation - our beloved, departed Dan Duquette, who after badly misjudging Clemens in the negotiations that allowed him to move to Toronto said that he would not give out long contracts to players in "the twilight" of their career. The bad blood between Duquette and Clemens probably eased the latter's transition to the Evil Empire. After his move to Toronto Clemens said of Duquette "He wanted his team and he wanted some other guys he brought in for Mo [Vaughn] and everybody. It was an easy decision. It wasn't a hard decision at all for me."

We all know the Duke could be a dick, and in the best of times came across as a robot invented to destroy the earth. But Clemens' sentiment points out to the average fan that in Clemens' mind there were only two factors involved in his decision - money, and Duquette. The fans were not at all an issue - they are not even mentioned here. Even if he thought the fans were a distant, distant third in the equation, he could have said "in spite of the way the negotiations panned out, I do have some regret for the fans of Boston" or something. But no - nothing. This is what galls us, years later. And having been called on it, many times in fact, a competitive, me-first guy like Clemens would be sure to take an aggressive stance against Boston as a whole. Which he appears to have done.

Make no mistake, if Theo and John Henry had opened the purse wide enough, ol' Roger would have come back, and in his cagier old age would be saying all the right things. But it would have been a stunning outlay of money; one that the current pitching staff simply does not warrant. In any case, you can be certain of this: even if Clemens were to have come back and pitched his final game as a member of the Boston Red Sox, you and I, the trusting fan, would not have factored into the decision.

Ellsbury Quickens

Jacoby Ellsbury was promoted to Pawtucker last week, after just destroying AA ball. He hit .452, with a .518 OBP, and .644 SLG in 17 games. In 3 games in AAA he is hitting .333 with a .467 OBP due to collecting 3 walks in 15 PAs. This probably spells r-e-l-e-a-s-e for Alex Ochoa, and a move to a corner OF position for Murphy. Also, Coco Crisp may see a sign posted in his locker shortly that reads "Objects in rear view mirror are closer than they appear".

Moss Rolls

Nearly forgotten man Brandon Moss has apparently made the decision to stand up. Through just over 100 ABs Moss's bat has shone. His 1.034 OPS leads the team by more than 100 pts. His 7 HRs are 4 more than the next highest total. Better yet, his 19/25 BB/K rate is balanced and reflective of the organization's principles of approach. A hundred-twenty plate appearances is not a buttload of data, but it's significant enough to surmise that Moss might be maturing into a real asset. He turns 24 in September, and could see the bigs late next year if this continues. The question is: will it be with the Sox?

Buchholz Who?

When Clay Buchholz was promoted to Portland, his rotation partner Michael Bowden was left to move to a hitter's dream park as a Lancaster Jethawk. The average ERA of the Jethawks' pitchers, not including that of Michael Bowden, is 5.57. Michael Bowden's ERA is 1.62 (4th best in the league), with a WHIP of 1.05 (5th best). His 9.1 K/9 is tied for third among the league's starters.

But Bowden is at a serious disadvantage.

The term "park factor" is used to indicate how a particular ballpark affects certain activities, with a 1.0 being average. Lancaster's run factor is 1.25, it's HR factor is 1.56, and the K factor is .81. It jacks up runs scored and HRs (obviously this is causal to the Runs factor), while depressing Ks. To put this in perspective, the Jethawks have 5 players with an OPS above 1.000, and 7 with an OPS above .950.

I probably would not argue that Buchholz has a higher ceiling than Bowden, based on his build and athleticism, but I might argue that Bowden has been more impressive this year given his situation in Lancaster. He really seems to understand how to pitch. I think we'll be seeing him in Portland shortly, and probably in Bostong ere long.

Well, that was crap.

2007-04-17T21:07:00.000-07:00

Is Daisuke Matsuzaka being hazed?
You could make the argument. Maybe he was too successful in his first start and his teammates decided to cut him down a notch. Let's see...

Against Seattle the Sox managed one hit versus the very talented - and morbidly obese - Felix Hernandez. Watching the game, one noted that King Felix was a very good pitcher, and one also noted that the Red Sox, as a team, were utterly incapable of doing anything with very hittable pitches, straight fastballs, on the inner half of the plate. This was easily explained away on Sportscenter by the pundits, who - using ESPN's cartoonishly juiced velocity gun (I mean, really people) - argued that his fastballs were consistently 99 MPH and his sliders consistently 93 and 94, and certainly unhittable. It should be noted that on various highlights the gun showed Hernandez's change-up to be clocked at 89-91 MPH. Credible? No. Nevertheless, one cannot argue that the kid has great stuff, and if his having the body and fortitude of a hippopotamus pinata doesn't cut his career short (say hello to your cousins, Colon and Sabathia!), he could really be one to reckon with. I'm betting he chunks out, though. He's only 21, and already one of the fattest non-comedians I have ever seen on live TV.

In the Seattle game, there was a weird dynamic on the Dice-K side. I only saw the innings 5-9, but I was absolutely shocked by the pitch selection I was seeing. When any pitcher gives up a hit to Adrian Beltre, it should be cause for concern. When someone of Dice-K's ability does, you know there is a specific reason (and you suspect Vegas is involved). And there was. Beltre sat on the very same pitch he had watched Dice-K throw as the last three consecutive offerings in the Ichiro at-bat. Change-up; low in the zone (Beltre's favorite). With Beltre on second, Jose "I Really, Really Prefer Fastballs" Vidro got a fastball up around the chest. To me, watching with the game on mute, this was plenty of information to have me indict Varitek, but I have since read that Matsuzaka was shaking him off. So the jury's out there.

Nevertheless, that game was just awful. Matsuzaka pitched well enough to win despite not having great stuff, and the bats were not there. Overmatched, maybe, but at that point there were doubts lingering from watching certain key at-bats. Was the offense overly concerned with going the other way? Why?

Cut to tonight. Matsuzaka again pitches more than well enought to win, but this time he's pitted against poorly respected shitbum Gustavo Chacin. So when he loses, and moreover, the Sox again appear to have a contagion the symptoms of which are attempting to take inside fastballs to right field - but instead miss them or pop them up - I become suspicious.

"Where have I seen this before?" I think. "Was it that episode of Kojak where he posed as a chubby bald lefty for a Canadian baseball team?" I queried. "No, that's not it, you idiot!" I then cruelly rejoindered, like a douche. But wait..."Of course!! They were missing fastballs middle inside last week too, as if they would be fined if they pulled a pitch down the left field line! especially that chubby bald righty, Youjak!"

Of course, I am being somewhat facetious, however, the fact remains - prior to the seventh inning, two balls were hit to left: a double by Crisp and a single by WMPK. Chacin operates in the low-90s at best, so I struggle to understand the desire to go the other way. All in all, the only logical conclusion I can come up with is that the guys are hazing Dice-K by losing him a couple of games they could have one. In the end, I think this will make a better guy, and will help him network for a sales job after baseball. So I guess I'm behind it, in a condescending sort of way.

Shhhh...here comes Hansack..

Sure, he looked great in Spring Training. Easy, repeatable delivery. Throws three pitches for strikes, apparently at will. No emotion to speak of. In short, he is the Anti-Tavarez. But what do a few spring training outings mean?

Well, at this point, Devern Hansack has pitched 10.2 innings in AAA. His strike to ball ratio is at nearly 70%. He has struck out 2o batters. He has allowed only one earned run. He is, in short, at this point ridiculous. Now, this is the smallest of sample sizes, possibly ever. But if like me you really like what the former Nicaraguan lobsterman looks like on the mound, buy your bandwagon seats now.

2007 Red Sox Pitching Staff

2007-04-08T17:56:00.000-07:00

A tardy closing to my look at the 25-man roster for 2007. It was helpful to have a few games I could watch to see the pitchers in game situations.

Starters:

Curt Schilling: 2007 ZiPS Projection 15-7 W-L | 3.98 ERA

This is a pretty standard projection for Schill, matching his three-year (2004-2006) averages very closely. At this point I think we all know what we can expect from a healthy Curt Schilling. The wrinkles this year are his advancing age (again), his attempt to work in a new change-up, and of course any stress that might result from the 2008 contract situation.

Curt's first start was an inmitigated disaster. He couldn't locate the fastball, which is absolutely necessary, and the experimental change was tattooed. The rumor based on the announcers was that he was tipping the change, and certainly that makes some sense. He looked much better tonight, obviously, and in spite of the dinger by Red Sox killer Frank Catalanotto (Catalanotto must have his hookers wear Sox gear before coming to bed, I swear to you, his OPS against us is 1.2 and change). the change over the course of the game looked useful. Still, it's not vintage.

The short story is this - Curt needs to win 15 for this team to have a chance. Even Joe Morgan recognizes this, which means it's a very simple thing.

Josh Beckett: 2007 ZiPS Projection 14-10 W-L | 4.55 ERA

Well, it probably goes without saying that if we get two years like this from Beckett, he is not worth Ramirez and Sanchez. I think we're going to see better than this from Beckett this year. He has had a year to adjust, should be a little more mature, and I think new pitching coach Farrell will be a benefit to him.

Beckett looked very good in his first start, keeping his mid-90s fastball down in the zone and complementing it with a hook that was just nasty at times. Beckett doesn't need to be as much of a "pitcher" as Schilling is, but he has to locate the fastball. That will be the key for him this year. That, and Archie comics.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 2007 ZiPS Projection 15-8 W-L | 3.44 ERA

At this point it's not surprising that Dice-K projects to have the best numbers on the team. He is the real deal. Sit back and enjoy the maestro.

Timmeh:2007 ZiPS Projection 11-12 W-L | 5.16 ERA

Are these crappy numbers? Hells yeah. Might this be just what Timmeh puts together this year? Yup. A healthy Wake should go about .500, mid-to-high 4s ERA. Knuckleballers shouldn't regress as other pitchers do as they age, and I suspect that regression is built into this projection, so I'm expecting a bit better. That being said, we are all familiar with Timmeh's Jekyll and Hyde act. It's a crapshoot.

Essentially you get a decent #4 at a good price with Timmeh, but of course you also get Doug Mirabelli, who is just awful in every way. I love Wake, and he is the consummate Boston guy, but if Snyder comes around, Lester comes back, and Hansack looks like he looks, it might be getting a little cramped for a pitcher who makes you waste a roster spot for his chubby binky.

Julian Tavarez: 2007 ZiPs...ahh, I'm not even gonna bother

Tavarez has no business being our #5 while Snyder and Hansack are available. He doesn't strike guys out, and just cannot consistently throw strikes. Unless the idea was to let him carry over his lucky streak from last year in order to trade him, I am insulted that he's in this position. Hansack throws three pitches for strikes regularly, has a smooth repeatable delivery, and looks pretty much unflappable. We should be watching him pitch every fifth day. Also, the guy was catching lobsters in Nicaragua like two years ago. "Yeah, hi, Disney?..."

(Note: I don't want people to think I'm anti-Tavarez. Sure, last year I referred to him as the Anti-Christ for several months, and repeatedly compare him to Popeye's dog-like creature The Jeep, but I can never turn my back on the man who punched a guy out at home plate just for scoring on him. Genius.)

Bullpen:

Let's work back from the top...

Jon Papelbon: 2007 Shea Projection 30 S | 2.10 ERA

It would be truly remarkable for Paps to duplicate his rookie season, but I think he clearly gives us what we need in the back of the bullpen - a reliable, intimidating closer. I think we probably see him in fewer games, and I think the league adjusts to him, and that (plus beer) is what is generating the line above.

Joel Pineiro: 2007 Shea Projections 4 S | 3.97 ERA

I am pulling this out of my ass. Basically, I think Pineiro sees a few low-lev save opportunities to see if he can bump up his trade value, or provide a safety option if Paps' shoulder twinges. He is a complete mystery right now. he has had a couple good outings where his stuff looked pretty good, and then of course sucked so badly tonight that the temperature dropped 5 degrees in the stadium while he was on the mound. Jury still out, but... I'm leaning towards shitbum. So I guess, really, he's not so much a complete mystery.

Mike Timlin (currently rehabbing): 2007 ZiPS Projection 6-4 W-L | 4.55 ERA

Like many of you, I am disturbed by the image of Timlin standing on the mound, staring into Varitek's crotch to get the call, unaware that there is a bony seven-foot figure in a dark cowl holding a giant scythe standing directly behind him. At some point a guy who makes his living in the upper half of the strike zone will run out of time, and you have to wonder if age 41 might be Mike's last call. This would really suck for us, because one thing is certain - Tito will be the last to know.

Brendan Donnelly: 2007 ZiPS Projection 4-4 W-L | 4.34 ERA

Donnelly is a classic case of getting a guy on the downslope and hoping he plateaus for a year or two while he's still pretty good (yes, this happens enough for there to be classic cases). And Donnelly was pretty good last year, despite having most of his peripherals drop. When you look at his delivery, it's difficult to understand why he hasn't exploded at some point, but he's been pretty healthy for the last few years. If Tito isn't a complete imbecile, Donnelly gets most of the 8th inning opportunities. Righties hit him pretty good (.861 OPS) last year, so that will be something to watch, but you'd rather see him out there than Timlin at this point.

J.C Romero: 2007 ZiPS Projection 4-3 W-L | 4.43 ERA

Romero is a reclamation project. Really, I guess he's a LOOGY, especially if you look at his 2006 splits (RHH went for a .1029 OPS against last year, so basically every righty was an all-star), although they were more severe than his historicals. Still, he is the absolute last guy you want pitching to a right-handed power hitter named Sammy Sosa. He was very good in 2004 and the Sox are hoping he figures out how to replicate that performance. With Lopez pitching as well as he has been, Romero is going to have to show improvement (caviat is that Lopez has a minor-league option left, but the Sox are still without a defensive OF which probably won't last).

Javier Lopez: 2007 ZiPS Projection 2-2 W-L | 4.82 ERA

Lopez was acquired as a LOOGY but has shown the ability to pitch to both sides of the plate with his underarm delivery. He doesn't get hit hard, but has command issues. If he can figure out how to throw strikes consistently he's a valuable bullpen piece with his pitch movement. Bottom line; he's another guy who is on the tightrope to stick. I tend to think unless Romero really collapses, Lopez will see one more stop in AAA.

Kyle Snyder: 2007 ZiPS Projection 7-6 W-L | 4.86 ERA

I believe this projection is for Snyder as a spot starter. Snyder is a compelling guy, a former first-rounder who has struggled with health issues for his career. As we saw in flashes last year, he can pitch, with a decent fastball and exceptional curve. He appears to struggle mentally at times, which working with Farrell and Tek can only help. I like Snyder but as the swing-man in the bullpen, if we see him coming in it means the game has gone sideways, in most cases. I find it an interesting side story to the season, watching his progression (or not).

Note: by all accounts new pitching coach John Farrell is doing a great job. I think we will look back at that decision with gratitude a few years from now. His methodologies are used throughout the organization, so when prospects get to the big league club they are already in synch. I really like the way he has gone about his business.

2007 Red Sox Outfield

2007-03-29T21:33:00.000-07:00

So we now know that the Sox have decided to go with another arm instead of a bench OF who can actually field a position. I think this is a temporary situation, and I think Alex Ochoa agrees with me. I expect the Sox will look to move either (or both) Romero or Pineiro at some point in the coming months, although to be honest I would expect Lopez to draw the most interest based on his contract and effectiveness. If Pineiro pitches lights-out in April, then, well, his contract looks pretty good too, and he might move. Ironically, if Putz's arm is gone, Seattle would be a team who needs a closer. Reitsma is not that guy, IMO.

So, what are we looking at?

J.D. Drew: 2007 ZiPS Projection BA .266 | OBP .383 | SLG .452

Here's where projections can be insane. Varitek projects to hit as well as Drew, and I think we all know that is about as likely as Varitek changing his haircut/goatee combo. I liked the Drew signing when we made it, and I really like it now. It goes without saying that he could blow his testicles out in a freak ferris wheel accident and be gone all season, but he is a true talent that is exactly what this ballclub needed. I personally think his line will look more like .290 | .390 | .510.

Coco Crisp: 2007 ZiPS Projection BA .299 | OBP .352 | SLG .456

So, naturally, when you look at Crisp's projection, you think "huh?" but this was the guy they signed (at a pretty reasonable rate I might add). I mean, we all loved the idea of Andy Marte hitting 84 dingers a year, but regardless of your feelings about the trade, it was never in question that Crisp was a young athletic kid who was trending the right way (also, Marte can't hit off-speed stuff yet, which can be a problem). I think his batting eye needs to improve for him to reach this level, but there is no reason a healthy Crisp doesn't have the above line by the end of 2007. Of course, the phrase "healthy Crisp" seems oxymoronic at this point doesn't it?

Still, I know we will all be rooting for Coco, if only to force piece of shit non-journalist Dan Shaughnessy to eat crow after his latest hatchet job, which was focused on Coco. What is the common thread of the Shaughnessy hatchet job? The player won't talk to him. What a ginger clam.

Manny Ramirez: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .299 | OBP .408 | SLG .600

Well, there are few players as easy to project as Manny. This is Manny with a more or less normalized BABIP, I suspect. The guy just hits. Defensively, the debate rages on - is Manny the worst fielder of all time, worth negative 20-plus runs over the course of a season? Is the Fenway Park left-field so twisted that all defensive metrics are crap with regard to playing it? Does it matter at all, as long as Manny shags extra flies during warmup and takes the occasional mid-game leak in the scoreboard? No.

Manny is Manny, and his flailing around the outfield allows Papi's knees to hold up as the DH, and this pretty much makes the whole thing work. Is he kind of nut-job? Sure, but he is a pretty lovable kook, and when his career is done, and CHB is putting the axe to someone ese, and some real journalist takes us back over Manny's career here, we will miss that crinkly-haired genius. If WMP (now known as WMPK) can't put it together, or we don't somehow acquire a Cabrera, an A-Rod, or a Pedro Alvarez in the draft, a Manny departure will be a crippler.

Wily Mo Pena: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .276 | OBP .331 | SLG .483

Well, the great debate rages on. I am in the camp that the Arroyo for Pena trade was a fair risk-reward deal. We have no power in the system right now, none, that has played a full year of ball (well, maybe Mike James). Arroyo is a fine NL pitcher, and can eat innings, but was a pretty damn craptacular AL East pitcher. Based on what the FO knew then, I think it made sense.

Whatever, it's done. As a quick glance at the names above will tell you, we have a very injury-prone outfield, still, so Wily Mo should get his cuts in. I think we're going to see a drop in his BA, simply because his .411 BABIP (41% of the balls he made contact with were hits!) is just unsustainable for his level of ability. That's Ruthian territory. If Wily Mo gets his 400 ABs, and makes some improvements - and that is the thing I like about the Super Genius, he truly seems to be able to make adjustments - we'll consider 2007 a success.

Good article on projecting Wily Mo here at Baseball Prospectus. It's never good to be compared to Pete Incaviglia, especially now, but still; interesting reading.

5th Outfielder TBD:

One wants to believe Murphy and Moss are in their plans for the near future, but I think Ochoa takes the spot until the late summer. Those two kids are guys that can still benefit from some AAA seasoning. They know there is no immediate spot for them on this roster, and that tearing it up in Pawtucket is their best chance to get a ticket to somewhere they can start (like Florida or Colorado). Ochoa is a good defensive outfielder with a cannon for an arm, and given the Ziegfeld-ian talents we have out there in WMP(K) and Manny, that will be much appreciated in some close games.

2007 Red Sox Infield

2007-02-22T11:36:00.000-08:00

I'll start with these guys since I'm predicting the least amount of flux in the infield throughout spring training, and I don't want to have to keep going back and forth with updates based on who's looking like the closer, or the 4th outfielder, or the Fat Elvis Presley, etc.

Catcher
Arguably the most important defensive position on the field when one takes game-calling into the picture.

Varitek: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .266 | OBP .357 | SLG .456

The Captain's offensive productivity dropped off last year, possibly as a result of injury, but he has come back this year stating he feels better than he has in years. Still, he's 35 years old playing a position that often correlates with steep performance declines for players older than 30. Varitek is not a normal athlete though, in terms of training and preparation. Until proven otherwise there is no reason to believe he cannot have a bounce-back year offensively.

Defensively, he remains the benchmark for game preparation and pitch-calling in the major leagues. With Matsuzaka coming on board for his first year in MLB, there can be no other catcher you would rather have behind the plate.

Good Herald article/puff piece on Varitek here. As one would expect he doesn't use the injuries last year as an excuse for the offensive struggles, and as usual he sounds like the kind of guy you just have absolute faith in. And, as usual, he doesn't seem like the guy you'd want with you in Vegas at 2am, unless of course you had attracted the unwanted attention of the security crew.

My personal prediction is that 'Tek ends up around where ZiPS has him. The swing is a little long, and the high inside heat will burn him a little more, but he will get on base, and when it's all said and done he is the Captain, and as long as he plays this team has a chance.

Doug Mirabelli: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .214 | OBP .304 | SLG .377

Doug Mirabelli is the long-snapper of MLB. He does exactly one thing, catch the knuckleball, and apparently he does it well enough that he makes 3/4 of a million dollars to do only that while causing people to suffer cerebral edema just watching him hit. I personally find it hard to believe that catching the knuckler is so difficult that no other catcher can learn to do it (since Varitek did it just fine before Dougie came along), but evidently there is some "comfort" level that helps Timmeh here, so we get another year of Mr. Chubs. If we only get Dougie once every 5 or 6 days it's a manageable hit, but anything beyond that is just brutal.

George Kottaras: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .241 | OBP .331 | SLG .374

Yes, the kid who's never been higher than AA is projected to hit better than Mirabelli. Shocking? No. My mom is projected to hit better than Dougie and she hasn't stepped into the batter's box since I bruised her ribs with an errant heater in 6th grade.

Kottaras is the heir-apparent to Varitek unless some odd things happen with Wagner, Weeden, Egan or Otness. That said, he does not project to approach Varitek's abilities defensively, at least at this point. The Sox obviously hope 'Tek can work with him to instill some of those traits, hence his invite to S.T. Kottaras is a cerebral hitter, though, and may be able to transform himself defensively through hard work and tutelage. It's something to watch this year. He'll play every day in Pawtucket. The interesting thing to note about Kottaras is that he does have some experience catching the knuckler (caught Steve Sparks for a bit in the minors) so if Dougie has an "incident" at the Pizzeria Regina, he might be able to caddy for Wake.

When all is said and done, we got Kottaras for a month of Fatty McFatfat. It's hard not to like that deal.

First Base
Typically an offensive position, the Sox do not have a typical solution in place.

Youks: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .276 | OBP .383 | SLG .428

Yes, Youks is not your prototpyical masher at first. His IsoP of .149 ranks 21st out of all MLB first basemen. But his Runs Created, which to some extent might be considered the "bottom line", is 12th in all MLB. Given what we're paying him, that is not a bad return. Nevertheless, the Sox are unusual for a big market club in that the two corner IF positions do not contribute a ton of slugging to the lineup. Ideally, we'd have Youks at 3rd and a Teixeira (or Papi, if his knees weren't the Caine Mutiny) at first. As discussed, however, it may be easier to upgrade at third.

Looking deeper on the bright side, Youks is a very mediocre defender according to the available metrics. So there's that. I'm kidding, of course, but I think it's important to recognize that while Youks is a very likeable, hard-working guy who maximized his talent, he is not a long-term solution at first for this club, in all likelihood. Still, I expect he puts up slightly improved numbers from last years', and is a solid all-around contributor to the 2007 effort.

Eric Hinske: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .256 | OBP .332 | SLG .406

Looking at the horrific mediocrity of these numbers, it is hard to understand why we would be paying Hinske $2.8M next year. The reason is that he hits right-handed pitching (OPS of .896 vs RHP last year), will take a lot of pitches, and can play 1B, 3B and OF (none particularly well, although the stats point to OF as his strongest). He is the uber-platoon player. Also, as previously mentioned in this space, he has a giant Rasputin head, and in tough times that can be used to instill fear into your opponent, or small children, as the situation dictates.

Second Base:
The red-headed stepchild of the infield. As Mark Loretta proved last year, you can get by with a gargoyle or lawn-gnome at second if they can turn the DP.

Dustin Pedroia 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .274 | OBP .347 | SLG .394

After being baptized by a 2005 that was characterized by injury and bad luck at the plate (his oft-harped upon - by me - .188 BABIP after his call-up), Pedroia dedicated himself to training in the offseason and revamped his body in preparation for his first year starting in the bigs. Frankly put, there are vastly differing opinions on what to expect out of Pedroia out there, but personally I think his glove is just fine for 2B, and I think he'll hit well. He's simply never not hit. Even when he struggled last year after the call-up he had the lowest K% on the entire team. The only real impact was that he became less selective and made poor contact on pitches he should have taken. I think he'll correct that this year, and hit a lot of line drives. This kid should be solid, and fun to root for.

Alex Cora 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .250 | OBP .333 | SLG .344

The most overpaid player on the team in terms of WARP-1 valuation is also the person most likely to become a solid coach in the organization (or worse, someone else's). This chat wrap excerpt from Gammons pretty much says it all:

Chris_2:	This Alex Cora for Kaz Matsui rumor sounds bogus to me. Is there any truth and/or logic to this rumor?
PeterGammons:	The Mets would love to do it but the Red Sox love Alex Cora, the manager agrees with Paul Lo Duca that he is the smartest player in the game. Matsui is a huge question mark. The Mets throw everything out there, so I'm sure they tried.

Cora is below average at two positions, but does the little things. He is a bench player and a good guy to have in the clubhouse. Not a problem.

Shortstop
The debate over defense vs. offense will rage on every time Lugo bobbles a ball, but no matter what side of the fence you're on SS is a lynchpin position.

Julio Lugo: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .292 | OBP .355 | SLG .407

Lugo is gonna be the guy to watch this year. His ZiPS projections are nice, nothing to write home about, but Eric Van over at SOSH (thread here) has put a lot more time into Lugo's projections and came up with .319 / .382 / .482 as his adjusted projection. That would obviously be a pleasant surprise to most of us, but there can be no question that Lugo is a gifted athlete who will fare better in Fenway (he always has) than at the Trop. If he stays healthy his production could well be the difference-maker for the team this season.

Lugo adds another dimension to the offense. He is a true lead-off hitter, having put up much better numbers in that role (career he's .291 / .352 / .434 leading off an inning and .271 / .335 / .391 otherwise), and even if he doesn't steal has the speed to make an impact on the basepaths. He also allows Crisp to move lower in the order, which may benefit the newly-fro'd one by allowing him to see more fastballs, and perhaps run more.

Cora is supposedly the back-up at SS but I can hardly credit that plan for any real length of time. I think it more likely Pedroia moves over and we deal for a Graffanino-type journeyman or may-have-missed prospect. At last glance our own Jed Lowrie was nowhere near ready for prime-time.

Third Base
The hot corner is another offensively minded position where the Sox are a little lacking with Lowell. However, Lowell's glove cannot be criticized.

Mike Lowell: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .277 | OBP .342 | SLG .465

Lowell is kind of a cottage speculation industry. Much about him is known: he's a great teammate, plays gold glove defense, is a hot 1st half-player, and sports an inexplicable John Waters moustache as part of his van dyke. However, ever since his mid-boggingly awful 2005, the vultures have been circling. He fell off a cliff in the second half of last year, as per usual, dropping 136 points in OPS after the All-Star break. Everyone is wondering - when will the slump become the norm (for reference see Millar, Kevin), or when will he figure out how to hit for a full season? Given his age, more of us are wondering the former.

Nevertheless, Lowell will be the third baseman until further notice, and frankly if he is not traded by the end of S.T. he probably won't be. You want him for the first part of the year, not the second. It's fun to conjecture that he might be better off with more days of rest earlier in the year, but what manager wants to sit a guy who's tearing it up? Ride the hot hand - that's the rule of thumb. Nevertheless, Hinske may see some action against LHPs to spell Youks and/or Lowell, and once again we will watch Mikey play with our fingers crossed, and play the conjecture game.

As an aside, there is no one in the minors who projects to be even close to matching Lowell's production. Top 3B prospect Chad Spann struck out in nearly 25% of his ABs in AA last year and was lackluster against AFL talent. Basically, root for Mikey.

Next....the outfield.

The 40-Man Roster

2007-02-21T20:05:00.000-08:00

Spring training is upon us! We will wish Lenny Dinardo well out here in the Bay Area as he leaves to make room for JD Drew. We can now look at the finalized Red Sox 40-man roster for 2007. I've compiled a quick view of the 2007 roster in the spreadsheet below, listing each player with their 2007 salary and ZiPS projection. ZiPS is a publicly shared projection methodology created by Dan Szymborski of the Baseball Think Factory. You can get them for all teams here.

You can enlarge the image by clicking on it. Obviously, this is a projection system, and as such is based on historical statistics. Therefore some of the numbers will not reflect the new reality. For example, Pineiro doesn't have enough history as a reliever to generate projections for that role, so his projections are as a starter. Szymborski knew late last season that Papelbon would go into '07 as a starter, so his numbers are a hybrid. Et cetera, et cetera, blah, blah, blah, what I'm saying is take these numbers with a grain of salt.

I'll be covering the various groups of players (SP, RP, OF, INF, UTIL)in more detail in upcoming entries. I just wanted to baseline things here, and ease into the mayhem. This has been a hectic offseason, a lot of drama, but all in all you have to feel pretty good about this team as it's built right now (did I say this in 2006?... you bet your sweet ass). At the very least, with El Guapo just up the highway in Nashua, there will be ample opportunity for amusement.

FA Signings by WARP-3 (Position Players)

2006-12-12T09:50:00.000-08:00

Quick post with some analysis of the FA signings this offseason, as promised in an earlier article. What I've done here is taken Baseball Prospectus's WARP-3 value, and weighted it 3-2-1 in favor of the most recent seasons - so 2006 has the most weight. WARP-1 is described as "The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done", but WARP-3 is adjusted for difficulty, and accounts for 162-game seasons (not really necessary since the seasons in question were 162 games). What I'm basically trying to show here is the amount of money teams paid per year (AAV = Average Annual Value) per WARP-3. This is quick and dirty, and doesn't take into account certain aspects of the player, but should serve as a baseline for analyzing some of these signings.

The graph file is pretty big, so hopefully it is readable. If you would like the original Excel email me for it at Bosoxwest@yahoo.com.

Spreadsheet here:

The interesting thing to note here for Sox fans is of course where Drew and Lugo fall in the mix. Drew is getting around $250K less per WARP-3 per year than Soriano, and about $100K more per year than Matthews Jr. In the abstract this isn't great in and of itself, except when you take into account the fact that Soriano's contract has three more years on it than Drew's and the fact that 2006 was Matthews Jr's career year almost by a factor of 2. In that upper echelon of AAV per WARP, outside of Soriano and perhaps Ramirez, there's no player I'd rather have than Drew, and given the years the contract looks pretty good. The Lee contract, as previously noted, is a fucking joke - pardon my french.

The Lugo signing, once again, looks very, very good. Look at the names above him, and it becomes pretty clear. Interestingly, the Cora signing looks absolutely ridiculous on paper. I guess they're paying for intangibles.

The best positional bargains of the offseason thus far? Kevin Millar, and Adam Kennedy. Of the guys who could play every day and help the team (Counsell and Clayton will be bench players), these guys signed for very short money in the current market. In baseball, as in all other areas of life, it does not pay to be an unathletic-looking white guy.

I'll try to take a look at pitchers in the coming weeks. It's a bit trickier, but we'll see how the trending works out.

Red Sox Select Nick Debarr in Rule 5 Draft

2006-12-07T09:12:00.000-08:00

In today's Rule 5 Draft the Sox picked up big righty reliever Nick Debarr. Debarr was a 14th round pick by Tampa Bay in the 2002 amateur draft. Debarr is 6' 4" 220 lbs. and pitched for Visalia in the California league last year. He came back last year from Tommy John surgery, apparently very well.

Here's a quick scouting blurb on him from Rays Baseball in 2004:

"DeBarr is a hoss; 6’4, 220, 20 years-old, possess a low-90’s fastball that BA thinks could improve as DeBarr continues to add strength, a plus splitter and a decent slider. He had better results when he became more aggressive, a trait he will need to keep as he moves up to Bakersfield this year."

What do we like about Nick? A good K rate (avg. 6.8 but nearly 8 last year), has fixed the K:BB rate (up to nearly 4:1 last year after a tough previous season), and a low WHIP (1.13 last year), and of course he has the prototypical "pitcher's build". What's not to like? Well, he's only had success at high-A, so he's a longshot to stick on the 25-man roster for the season. He'd really need to surprise.

Naturally, when your bullpen features Mike Timlin, you want to amass as many options as possible, and if Debarr can locate his fastball and in fact has a plus secondary pitch, he could help this team. Under normal circumstances we could decide we like him and trade or send cash to Tampa Bay to keep him, but since Tampa Bay despises our FO that might be tough. It may well be a situation where we throw him into the fire, and it's sink or swim. Or, I guess he might be a trading chip to be used in the near term, or kicked back to TB.

At any rate, for $50K, it seems like a reasonable chance to take. As I've always maintained, nothing's more fun than rooting for the longshot, so here's to Nick.

The other positive outcome from the Rule 5 Draft is that exposed Red Sox prospect Chad Spann was not claimed by any team. This probably explains why he was left unprotected. Spann has a ways to go yet, certainly defensively, but has the potential to be a big-league contributor, so I'm happy he stays with us. Moerover, Pawtucket already has a lot of holes on that team, and I don't want them to suck. So there's that.

And a week until the Matsuzaka deadline...

Sox Sign Two, Get Raped By Media

2006-12-06T11:12:00.000-08:00

It appears that Manny is staying, and Drew and Lugo are coming on board, and essentially the Sox are spending a boatload of money. Really, there should be no surprises here. They've looked at trading Manny for the past three years, and it hasn't happened, and their demands have escalated if anything, due to the absurd free agent costs in the current market. The reports on Drew and Lugo have positioned the Sox as the front-runners for weeks now. They had the biggest needs, the wherewithal, and they pulled the trigger.

First off, let me say that I haved mixed feelings about these signings but no doubt everyone does. What I am comfortable accepting is that given today's market these are not only fair, but probably good contracts. Before we start going berserk about Drew's injury history or Lugo's LA stint, which we can certainly do, we have to start with the new baseline: the contracts of Soriano and Lee.

Soriano signed an 8-year, $136 million contract. This contract is staggering, of course. Lee, who was signed to a simply terrible contract, will get $100 million for 6 years in Houston. Taking a WARP average of the last five years, those guys are getting paid roughly $2.5 Mil (Soriano) and $3.7 Mil (Lee) per WARP, or Win Above Replacement Player.

I am guessing that the average AAR per WARP at somewhere in the vicinity of $2.2 Mil, for this offseason, but I will research further. The Soriano deal makes some sense from this perspective, in that he was one of the best available players - it's really just the number of years that scare you. The Lee contract is ridiculous no matter how you slice it (and reportedly he turned down a fatter offer from SF because they completely and utterly suck). He hits. That's it.

Now, on to the Sox signings. Drew first. Drew is getting the same AAR as Soriano per WARP at $2.5 Mil per - again, using an average of his last five years. Here's the thing there - Drew's productivity was greatly hampered by injury. Taking an average of his three healthy years, he's only getting about $2.1 Mil per WARP. So, and this has also been discussed ad nauseam, if healthy Drew is a good signing, even looking at the big numbers in the contract, according to the current market cycle. Thanks to all the negative press, people are conveniently ignoring the fact that he is the closest thing to a 5-tool player to hit the market in years. If it weren't for the injury history, he simply couldn't be had. We're taking the risk. End of story.

So. The knocks on Drew of course are that he is injury-prone (which he is), and that he doesn't play with "passion". The first is a semi-legitimate beef, since he has missed a lot of time over the years. However, he's had two fluke bone breaks, and has also received praise from former managers for playing while hurt. I tend to think this is just bad luck for the most part. I mean, he's no Nomar, that's for goddamn sure. The second is just garbage. Sure, everybody loves Trot Nixon's dirty style of play (and media presence) but you'd be arguing pretty hard to convince me Manny's been "playing with passion" the past years. All we should concern ourselves with is the production. Their personalities are their own.

As an aside, the biggest complainers about Drew's lack of passion are the Dodger fans, who hail from Los Angeles, the most spiritually abject place on the planet. I mean, please. It's getting to the point where we should remove the word "irony" from the dictionary.

The Lugo signing, and I will be the first to point out that I was for keeping Gonzalez on the cheap when it was still an option, and before Soriano had destroyed the marketplace, may turn out to be a steal. He's only getting $1.9 Mil AAR per WARP, and by all accounts he will perform at a higher level in Fenway, and in this lineup, than he has historically. I don't know - I liked Gonzalez's glove a lot, but Lugo brings a lot of different facets to the team. We'll see, but again, based on his historical performance, and compared to the current market rates, he'll be underpaid! Insane.

Now, let me be clear: I've gone through this exercise just to make Sox fans feel better. Really, the Sox simply needed to sign both players since Manny was not going to bring their replacements back. We needed a right-fielder with some power and defensive ability. We needed a #5 hitter. We needed a SS. We're a big market team and we went out and bought the best we could find. That is all.

What we're seeing now in the media, and within the fanbase IMO, is a significant backlash due to the Matsuzaka posting outcome being followed by the Manny trade circus (and anti-climax) and the two big FA signings. Right now the Sox are the 800-lb. gorillas in the room at the winter meetings. The Yanks already have a massive lineup they could hardly expect to improve upon, and just needed to quietly acquire a couple of arms. Notice that the $26 Mil they shelled out to talk to future #4/#5 starter Igawa didn't cause even a ripple in the media. They'll probably sign Pettitte on a one-year deal to finish his career, and he'll be a key piece to what is looking on paper like a championship-caliber team. And nobody is saying anything because the Sox are stomping around the offseason table like Godzilla. Oh, and also, the stomping makes for good copy.

The position many of us will find ourselves in - even moreso than we do already - is that of Second Bully. For years we've defined ourselves as the Galahad of the baseball world: cursed, ever questing for the Holy Grail of a Series title while battling the Dragon from New York. Well, the grail is ours as of 2004, and with this offseason, the Sox have officially begun breathing fire in the eyes of the rest of baseball. This of course does not change our situation one bit - we are still chasing the biggest payroll in American sports in the toughest division in MLB, and we'll do what we have to do. When all is said and done, there's just one requirement: win. However, it's clear the days of sympathetic fans from other cities are long gone.

PLUGGIN'!

If you are at all interested in the future of the Red Sox roster, take a trip to the Sox Prospects Wiki: http://soxprospects.wikispaces.com/. One stop shopping.

Sox Hot Stove Is Cookin'

2006-11-21T09:10:00.000-08:00

Apologies for a long absence. Work is killing me, and I'm too damn prideful to post snippets. I should be able to post consistently in a couple weeks. For now, thought I'd share some thoughts on the offseason, an a couple quick Winter Ball updates.

Rolling the Dice

First, the offseason. The big splash has already been made with the Sox paying $51.1 Million just to speak to Daisuke Masuzaka and his miasmic agent Scott Boras. The media has made a big stink about the expenditure, especially in NY, and have tried to whip up an anti-Sox frenzy by calling this a crazy over-spend. It is not. It is a perfectly sensible, market-rate to below market-rate spend in the 2007 free agent world, even with the Sox overmatching the Mets' next-best bid by $10 Mil.

There are a lot of angles to this deal. The first is the Sox's need for an ace starting pitcher. In today's free agent market, that meant they had three choices: Matsuzaka, Zito, and Schmidt. Schmidt was probably not coming East, and Zito is nowhere near "ace" quality, certainly not against the AL East, and pitching in Fenway. But those two guys were expected to get something in the vicinity of 5/$90M contracts, and that was if you were able to actually sign them. Doing so would (will for the eventual team) take some time, because they will wait until the Padillas, Lillys, and Suppans of the world sign to set the market.

This brings us to the second angle. The Sox have numerous holes to fill, not just SP. Winning the bid on Matsuzaka means they 1) have a monopoly on he negotiations, so they don't have to worry about other teams' bids (or fabricated other teams' bids) and 2) are assured of knowing one way or the other in 30 days. This streamlines their offseason efforts and allows them to spend more energies filling the other holes - RF, SS, RP, b-C, possibly trading Manny, etc..

The next item to figure into the deal is the money. There's the Japanese market itself, where the Sox are looking to gain a foothold. This presence will serve two purposes - one, it makes prospecting easier and more productive, and two, it generates new revenue streams. Averaging all the back-of-the-envelope assessments I've read out there, the Sox should realize in the vicinity of $5-10 Mil annually in ancillary benefits. There's your posting fee, coming back pretty quickly.

The other part about the money is that the posting fee doesn't count against payroll, and so will not go towards incurring luxury taxation, as other signings will. People argue that it goes against Red Sox operations, but if you're JWH, there are countless ways to account for that money.

There is no way to apologize for the fact that the Sox are able to spend $51 Million to speak to Matsuzaka, and there is no reason to either. If they spent $90 Million to sign Zito, it would just be another big market signing, and they are a big marke tteam. If they spend $100 Mil to sign Dice, but $51M is just to talk to him, suddenly they're insane? He's just 26 years old, and by all accounts is one of the best pitchers in the world! He carries the same risk as any pitcher - injury, and league/division adjustment - but if you're talking about spending in that range, get the best guy out there, especially if only half the money goes against payroll, and the other half gets recouped by ancillary market revenue! Christ! Reports from MLB scouts state that he can throw 5 different pitches for strikes. Last year righties hit ~.208 off him, and lefties ~.205 - that is ridiculous. This signing is a smart move by a team that can afford to make big signings, and did.

JD and Julio

By all accounts, the Sox are major players for both of these guys. Sadly, the Cubs are too, although why any player would sign for a team that will destroy their careers is beyond me. If ever a team were truly cursed, the Cubbies are that team.

The shortstop dilemma is very real. With A-Gon having signed with the Reds, there is a lot more pressure to get Lugo signed. We probably don't want Craig Counsell patrolling short next year. In this market Lugo will get a ridiculous amount of money, and it will be an overpay, but the Sox don't have a clear SS replacement in the system. There is still hope for Lowrie, who came on strong in his last 100+ ABs, but whose defense has yet to be proven in the position. Negron is still in A-ball and has a long road to hoe. A team like Boston should not be trotting out a C-level shortstop, so I would expect they go the distance in the Lugo negotiations.

The JD Drew situation is a little different. There is no question he is the best all-around outfielder on the FA market, but after Soriano's clown-car contract (thanks a lot Cubs) he will be looking for something absurd like 5/$75M. If he were a guy without health issues you could probably make the argument that's not too untenable in the current MLB environment, but he's not. Still, Theo has wanted him for a while, he is an instant solution for the gaping 5-hole in the lineup, and defensively he takes care of RF and/or perhaps CF until Ellsbury lands in the event of a Crisp trade. The wrinkle in the Drew negotiations is that he makes Crisp or Super-Genius a 4th outfielder (and Murphy nothing, really) or trade bait unless the Manny trade happens.

I'm thinking if they sign Drew and Lugo they trade Manny. People are rightly pointing out that replacing Manny's production in the lineup, pound for pound, is impossible, and that's true. Drew is a good enough hitter to protect Papi, however, in my opinion (and folks will argue), and the fact is that all the "keep Manny" talk is predicated on the assumption that Manny was faking his injury(s) last year. If we were to take into account the fact that his knees might actually be going, Theo and Co. will never get back the value they can right now. This offseason is a perfect storm in terms of getting value back for Manny's bat, and I think they'll take advantage of that, if they can acquire two offensively productive positional players in Drew and Lugo.

AFL, HWL Notes

In the Arizona Fall League, which recently finished up, the Sox had a number of players suited up for the Peoria Javelinas. Ellsbury and Spann played the field and Dinardo, Hertzler, Jackson and Pauley were on the mound. Team stats are here, but for the most part everybody was average, with the exception of Kyle Jackson's luck - he was 6-0 with a 6.23 ERA, and last I heard was hitchhiking to Vegas. Dinardo impressed the most on the mound, with a 1.27 WHIP and 3:1 K:BB ratio. Neither Spann nor Ellsbury shone at the plate, but the raves about Ellsbury's defense continued. One study, which you can see here at SOSH, has Ellsbury at 65 plays above average for 150 games, which, while probably impossible, highlights the simply outstanding range and instincts. Even if he doesn't hit, there are a few scenarios which see him on the 40-man by end of 2007.

Meanwhile, out in Hawaii, Jeff Corsaletti and John Otness are playing for the West Oahu Cane Fires. Ryan Phillips went out there but pitched just once and hasn't been seen since, and no one knows why. Otness has really impressed, hitting .328 with an OPS of .845, and playing decent D. Corsaletti, on the other hand, is in a crushing slump, hitting .138 with an OPS of .500. He's not K-ing a ton, so either he's not making good contact or is incredibly unlucky. Impossible to know.

Cane Fires team stats are here. That league is still ongoing. I can't understand why there is no TV market for these leagues, because I for one would watch. There's an idea for any of you young entrepreneurs out there.

Whither Youks?

2006-10-30T21:14:00.000-08:00

One of the biggest discussion points in the world of Red Sox geeks recently has been the future of Kevin Youkilis. Youks is not a classic corner infielder due to his lack of power, and the Sox, with their payroll, should probably be able to upgrade. That said, Youks has a very favorable price-tag, plays hard, and maybe is just cursed with crappy accountant's body. Who's to say? Well, I took a look.

First, the bad news. Youks, as a first baseman, doesn't realy match up too well against other first basemen, when looking at the usual stats:

2006 stats:

Player A: AB 569 R 100 HR 13 RBI 72 AVG .279 OPS .381 SLG .429 OPS .810
Player B: AB 430 R 64 HR 15 RBI 64 AVG .274 OPS .374 SLG .437 OPS .811

Obviously, player A is Youks. The problem is, Player B is Millar. That's right, KFC-eating, JD-drinking, hair-highlighting Kevin Millar. Notice, I didn't say "fat", or "lumpy" - that description would have no business being in a Youkilis comparison.

Youks's thing was supposed to be strike-zone command, and contact. As we saw, it was middling, as he struck out 120 times. However, he walked nearly 91, and his Line Drive percentage at nearly 25% was good. He did was he was advertised to do.

Here's the thing. Youks' OBP is good, but it's 9th among starting first basemen in the majors. You have to get down to #20 on the list before you find a guy whose OBP is under .350 (Prince Fielder), which is still respectable given the power. Meanwhile, Youks SLG is #22 of 24 (just above Todd Walker and Jeff Conine). So the guy kind of averages out in the lower part of the middle of the pack. Not too good for a $130Mil payroll.

That said, Youks has impacts that are more than the sum of his parts, statistically speaking. His RC (Runs Created) for the season puts him at #12 overall (although his RC/Game or RC/27 is #15) for first baseman. He was also #3 on the Sox in WPA for the season, although to some degree this is injury-related. Still, at 1.94 he compared favorably to Overbay and Konerko (and Soriano) who were just above 2. I use those numbers to show that while he may not produce a lot in the way of the more typical numbers, he helps the team win (he led 1Bmen with 12 sac hits, for example).

Now, the other great things about Youks is he plays both positions. When you move Youks over to third his OBP becomes much more elite - he's at #5. His SLG is still poor at #17, but his OPS is still #13. However, his RC and RC/G move up to #8, and he shoots up to #6 in WPA for 3B. At third base, the argument can easily be made he's one of the top ten offensive producers in the game. That's more like it.

I think the position of many people is that the Sox should be able to afford a corner infielder who is higher than the 12-15 range at his position. And that's fair, if you look at Youks as a first baseman. The real issue is, how do we address that? The real impact first baseman playing today are not easily acquired, so we'd need to take a flyer on a Carlos Pena, or trade for an unproven up-and-comer, or give up some major prospects and put a ton of money into a Teixeira. Unlikely.

However, again, by some more "holistic" metrics, Youks is a top-10 producer offensively at the other corner (for example, he's 20+ runs better than Inge and Blalock). Of course, his glove won't match up with Lowell's, but his contract does, so that's another angle to consider. I guess it seems to me that this is a problem of perspective - I don't like thinking about keeping Youks at first when we break down the numbers, but it may be easier to find an impact bat at third and Youks plays first reasonably well.

If someone has to be dealt to create more offense, in the end, it will come down to the moving pieces. If not, and the Sox could acquire a bat at 1B, Youks makes an elite platoon guy, but I would think that's a last resort. The facts are, Youks is valuable enough at third to play there for the Sox, or be an important piece in a deal this offseason, with Lowell winning the job by default.

The Not Too Too Distant Future?

Chad Spann, a 22-year old third baseman in the Sox organization, has put up a .918 OPS in his first 43 ABs in the Arizona Fall League. This is a small sample size, but the AFL is a who's who of up and coming prospects. Spann, at a young age, is building on a pretty impressive year at Portland (.833 OPS), and if he can keep it up the Sox may have the corner position solved for some time to come. At this point he needs to cut down on the Ks, but at his age, discipline can still come.

Mannygate

2006-10-06T11:16:00.000-07:00

2006 is over, and good riddance. Regardless of where you choose to point your finger, the story remains the same

There is only one real story in Red Sox Nation right now, and that pertains, again, to the future of Manny Ramirez. Nearly all the offseason speculation could be said to hang on the outcome of a Manny trade, or non-trade. I am personally ambivalent about trading him, because it is very hard to duplicate the production of a 1.000+ OPS hitter, but of course it's not too hard to gain back some runs by putting someone in left field who has a clue.

Let's assume that Manny is serious this time, that Tito has had enough, and that the Sox have to make a trade. Next, we have to look at the dependencies around this deal. What are the keys to keeping the team competitive without one of it's most imperative offensive components?

The first goal will be to ensure Big Papi has some protection in the lineup. They will not be able to replace Manny with equal production from a single player, but they cannot detract from Papi's production. Adding two more good bats should accomplish this. I've discussed in this space before the fact the Sox production from the five-hole in 2006 was the worst in baseball - for the season they were the only team to have a sub-.700 OPS in the five spot. That is simply incredible, and in my opinion the strongest contributor to their abysmal performance with RISP (.748). They need a solid #4 with longball power and good strikezone judgement, and a number five who either crushes mistakes or has enough gap power to drive guys in regularly (at minimum). These things may not necessarily be achieved with the Manny trade itself, but the trade can't happen without these things also happening, unless they are tanking for 2007.

The second goal will be providing a similar degree of value to the club as Manny now provides. Manny is a lot of hit, no D, no speed corner outfielder who nonetheless has the second highest WPA on the team behind Ortiz, and is rated as having the 14th-highest VORP for positional players in all of baseball (just for fun, Hanley Ramirez was #22). Manny also has some negative "intangibles" that bring his value down, and of course his age and health need to be factored in. Nevertheless, getting value on the dollar is tough, even bearing in mind that the old adage "a penny saved is a penny earned" applies here due to his cost.

Given these two things, how does the FO manage the trade potentiality? First, off they look at the overall needs of the team. As I mentioned above they need a #4 and #5 hitter, but even more desperately they need pitching - at least one starter and a reliever or two. They need defense up the middle - Crisp is not a CF and AGon is on the market. These needs exist independent of the Manny trade, but the trade would need to address at least some of them.

The pitching situation doesn't sort itself out easily. So far they've got Schilling, Beckett, Wake, Paps, Snyder, and (gulp) Tavarez. We can assume they need one more. If the Sox were even to pursue Matsuzake, they would almost certainly be outbid by the MFYs, who can throw all the cash in the world at Seibu for the negotiating rights, and then it's a done deal. That leaves them either in a bidding war for Zito, or closing early on a Padilla or Wolf. My vote would be for Padilla, who put together some strong starts last year in Texas' bandbox. I like Zito a lot, but the price is going to get crazy. With regard to the Manny trade, it's been supposed that Anaheim would do Santana-plus for Manny, but that doesn't feel right to me. I don't think they need him enough.

Of course, the FO could trade the entire farm for Dontrelle Willis and watch all the players traded away excel for Florida, who then wins the Series in 2007. I suppose that's the most likely outcome. To be honest, pitching is too much of a premium in the AL for me to see Manny bringing back enough to make the deal work, unless the arm is not close to big-league ready. That doesn't seem to fit here, so I'm thinking the deal is for a positional player(s).

If the FO decides Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius is ready to hit fifth full-time, that creates one less issue to deal with. The fact that the SG does not hit lefties well is a problem though, because spare bat Eric Hinske also does not hit lefties well, which is presumably why he is a spare bat. Ideally the Sox move Lowell and pick up a true corner infielder with some power, who slots into one of these spots. Aramis Ramirez is the free agent solution, although one would have to assume he moves into the clean-up spot. I had another idea for the Manny trade though.

In spite of reports that the firing of Buck Showalter may have put to rest the Rangers' interest in trading for Manny, the best trade I see out there for the Sox is trading Manny and a so-so arm for Michael Young and a high-ceiling prospy, and sending Texas $6-7 million a year over the next two years. If they pick up Young's option for 2008 they would still be getting him at fair market value, and he brings a lot back in return. Replacing Gonzalez's bat with Young's means you can fill in the rest of the offensive gaps more easily, because Young is such an upgrade. His defense may not be as stellar: defensive ratings have him just below Gonzalez in UZR (.863 to .836) but having better RF (4.86 to 4.36) in 2006, and he had more errors. But sewing him up at short gives the team a solid option for a number of years at a prime position.

Texas has youngster Joaquin Arias ready to go: he has played well at AAA and is often cited as one of the most athletic players in the Ranger organization. He's a gifted, Hanley-type player who's just starting to put the ability and the experience together. Manny would destroy Arlington Stadium, just destroy it, and a Teixeira, Manny, Blalock line-up is pretty fearsome. Young has made it clear he wants to win (read, fix this mess or trade me), and while the Sox probably didn't impress him that much this year they would have every opportunity to do so next year provided they do things right in the offseason. He appears to be the type of player who would relish the passion in Boston.

In my opinion this deal leaves the Sox with the most flexibility in the near term, assuming that nobody knocks their socks off with MLB-ready talent (which I am assuming). They can afford to be over the luxury tax threshold under the current CBA, and a lot of money comes off the books after next season in Schilling. They can sign a couple of the free agent names if they need to. If they ponied up for Zito and a second-tier bat, or Ramirez and Padilla in addition to Young, and grabbed a decent reliever off the heap, it would be okay by me.

Next week: my latest crazy scheme.

Sox' Bloated Corpse Floats Down River Styx

2006-09-26T09:35:00.000-07:00

When Shaun Marcum took the mound, I know what you were all thinking: "This guy will probably two-hit us". And you were right. With Shaun's pedigree, it was perfectly reasonable to expect him to put together a 10 strike-out, one walk, two-hit shutout for 8 innings. I mean, up until yesterday he had a sparkling 1.8:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and a dominant ERA of 4.92. He is clearly one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Conversely, you might have been thinking: "This Red Sox team is pretty much done". And you'd also have been right. Right now there are very few storylines worth watching on the field, and for me they all revolve around seeing the young kids perform.

We should never see Gabe Kapler on the field in place of David Murphy - this is a useful time for Murphy's development (Tito loves his veterans, though). One has to assume he will make the team next year as the 4th/5th outfielder, and it would behoove the Sox to do everything in their power to get him comfortable in the bigs. He has looked good defensively, one gaffe aside, and he does have a nice swing. Not much you can say about a guy in 19 ABs, but all his peripherals are in line with a guy who isn't yet overmatched. One early-bird reported that he has tremendous batting practice power, so there's that. Not useful, but nice.

Pedroia has made some adjustments in his swing, holding his hands higher and loading the bat better, and has come alive a little bit at the plate. He continues to have simply awful luck, with a BABIP of just .183, despite a decent line-drive percentage at 22.5% (to give an example, Loretta's LD % is 27.2 but he's hitting 100 points better). His 7% K rate is the best on the team.

McAdam has a good story on the two positional players here. The Pawtucket Times has a heartwarming article on Loretta's helping Pedroia ease into the majors. Again, Loretta shows what a professional and stand-up guy he is. If only his legs weren't made of cement, I'd keep him on this team until he retires.

Another, less happy storyline that has come up in recent weeks revolves around the Red Sox coaches. There has been a lot of message-board speculation around the various coaches recently, mostly focused on the pitching coaches. The media (well, McAdam, with the Worcester G & T commenting also) have recently unearthed some comments pointing at Papa Jack, article here. It appears Papa Jack is not, um, helpful if you aren't hitting well, which, to me, is kind of important. When you are hitting well, one would sort of think the coach's job is pretty much just to say things like "good hit", which even I can probably do fairly well (my Meyers-Briggs test be damned). Personally, I've long thought his "one size fits all" hitting approach was particularly damaging to a guy like Crisp who got here by relying on his natural abilities and "doing his thing", as it were. We'll see; he strikes me as the Lee Trevino of the Red Sox.

The complaints against the pitching coaches stem from the frankly craptacular performances by players who fans felt should have done better. Craig Hansen in particular has looked like a shadow of the kid the Sox signed out of St. Johns, and has been tinkering with his mechanics essentially his entire time as a pro. Beckett has obviously struggled until recently making a couple changes (delivery, more two-seamers) that one could argue should have been made much sooner. And recently Cla Meredith attributed his success to moving away from what the Sox staff had indicated should be his approach. Link to the Olney blog is here (reg. required), but the highlight is:

"He decided to bag some of what the Red Sox development staff had tried to encourage him to do. Right-handed submarine pitchers often have trouble against left-handed hitters because the left-handers see the ball longer, and the Red Sox had pushed Meredith to focus on throwing the ball inside to lefties -- to jam them. After being dealt to the Padres, Meredith decided to go with his own approach: Keep the ball away from them, sinking the ball to the outside corner."

Currently the Sox have two heads in Nipper and Wallace, and one would expect in this case too many cooks can spoil the soup, as it were. That said, Wallace's health is a concern, although most folks would probably prefer him as the coach, anecdotally.

Apparently we will learn the day after the season ends who will stay and who will go. The "charges" against Papa Jack are pretty damning, and since he has about 47 hitting DVDs out there I'm sure he'll be all-right, so I'm guessing he's gone. I think I'd like to see some changes just to shake things up and add a little life. This was not an impassioned team this year, and while the White Sox have proven that even passion (or, depending on your perspective, insanity) doesn't win every year, it's kind of nice to have.

Sea Dogs clinch EL Title; Sox take two from NY

2006-09-18T09:46:00.000-07:00

Sea Dogs Win! Sea Dogs Win!

Yesterday the Sea Dogs beat Akron in Game 5 of the Eastern League championships to win their first title, behind an eight-inning, 3 ER start from Devern Hansack. It marked the first time Hansack had gone deeper than seven innings in his career. Immediately after the game Hansack was called up to Boston and has been added to the 40. A big day for the Nicaraguan. Game story is here.

Keoni De Renne's bases-loaded triple in the third turned out to be the back-breaker. It was De Renne's first triple of the season, and in fact just his eighth extra-base hit. After the game Keoni was notified that he would not be called up to Boston. Probably ever. Still, a clutch performance by the diminutive Hawaiian.

Personally, I think this is a huge victory for the Sea Dogs and the Sox organization. This sort of playoff experience is great for the prospects on that team, and there are a few who we are hoping will make an impression with the BoSox, notably Jacoby Ellsbury, Brandon Moss, and new guy George Kotteras. Edgar Martinez and Chad Spann are also MLB hopefuls but missed the series. It's even more impressive that Portland pulled off the win without these key cogs. I wish to god NESN would televise these games, but apparently they can't, because they are retarded. Or maybe there's a more technical reason.

Sox Sweep Doubleheader

Yesterday was kind of fun, although meaningless, wasn't it? Always nice to take two at the Toilet, even though the Yanks will shortly buy another division win. The reason it's nice is because the real losers are Yankee fans, and whenever they lose, I'm happy. I know there are good Yanks fans out there, because I've met some of them, but often even those guys are apologists for Yankee spending - the sense of entitlement is in their DNA, like expansive body hair. It makes me crazy. It annoys and embarrasses me that the Sox spend $70 Million more than Oakland and KC, and all the rest. I feel that each time we lose - especially to them - it adds insult to injury to everyone involved, to all of baseball. Not Yankee fans - they believe that not only is the fiscal lopsidedness their right, they believe it is a moral imperative. They're baseball's version of the Duke brothers in Trading Places.

Anyway, off the soapbox and back to baseball, or what passes for baseball in the Bronx. We probably won't get a salary cap imposed in this space. Torre didn't play his full contingent in either game yesterday, resting his players for the upcoming playoffs. So, we didn't really take down the $200 Million machine in all it's fullness. Still, there were a few high points for the Sox to take away from the wins.

Number one, Kyle Snyder put together another good start, going five innings, striking out seven, and only giving up a couple runs. Moreover, he bailed himself out of a couple jams, including a bases-loaded nightmare that would have caused him to implode just a few weeks back. I am starting to believe this kid can be a decent #5 starter. Certainly, for the money, we have to keep him next year. There doesn't seem to be a predictive "Kyle Snyder Face"; that's good.

Number two, Pedroia had a clutch pinch-hit double for an RBI, and looks much more comfortable at the plate. He also jacked a Mussina pitch about 400 feet down the line, just missing an HR, in the second game. Let the DPed are begin.

Number three, Crisp hit the ball well and made a spectacular catch to rob Mr. Potato Head Jorge Posada ("You say potato, I say Posada") of a tater. Everyone in this organization needs him to perform well, and I think he's finally settling in. I for one will be disappointed if we pull the plug on him in the offseason. He may (will) never be a superstar but we have not yet seen what he can bring to this ballclub.

Lastly, the Sox dingers. David Murphy hit his first ML homerun in the first game, and Big Papi hit his 49th of the season. With Manny out his quest for Fifty hit a bit of a snag, but he'll pull it off somehow. He's Big Papi, and if you won't give him strikes to hit, he'll golf your weak-ass junk pitches out of the yard. He is tired of walking. I can say this because he and I talk a lot, usually with me asking him questions and taking his non-responses for affirmatives.

The Twinkies are next, and this series is going to be the tough one. We are extremely fortunate they shut Liriano down. Let's hope Wake gets some of that old magic back tonight.

Pedroia Not Winning Lottery

2006-09-15T11:56:00.000-07:00

It goes without saying that when you come up and hit .122 in your first 18 games, people are going to go batshit and generally act like you molested their sister. Or, maybe that just happens around Fenway, or maybe it happens anywhere if you're ARod, regardless of your stats. At any rate, the Dustin Pedroia bandwagon has not left the carport.

Let's look at some of Pedroia's peripherals though. In point of fact, his low numbers can at least partially be attributed to simple bad luck. His BABIP (BPA), or Batting Average on Balls In Play, is just .119. Average is around .290. To some degree this can be explained by his not hitting the ball hard in some at bats - Wily Mo's BABIP is .410 for example, because even his grounders get through the infield in a hurry - but in many cases it's just bad luck, and some spectacular defensive plays. We all remember the Anaheim series.

Pedroia is only striking out once every 11 ABs, which at 9% ties him for best on the team. This is a key indicator. He's not walking as much as expected but once he settles down from this tough beginning he'll start taking more pitches and getting on base, and I think we'll all be satisfied with having him on the team. He has nothing left to prove in AAA, that much is certain.

This brings up the next question, which is what do we do with Loretta next year? Defensively he turns the double-play well but his range is atrocious. Still, he's far from the worst available. Offensively you know what you're going to get, but you'll probably get it with DP, and maybe a bit more. Loretta would really just be a back-up player next year, IMO, but would that be acceptable to him? There are probably 6-10 teams that would benefit more from having him start over their incumbent. He's a better bat than Cora, although Cora is better defensively, and they're both smart baseball guys who are great to have in the clubhouse. We'll see how it plays out.

Portland Game Three

At 6pm ET today Portland plays game three of their playoff series against Akron. The Sea Dogs lead 2-0 in the series and coule clinch the Eastern League title with a win today. Supposedly you can listen free from WBAE here.

Andrew Dobies gets the start for Portland. He was a 3rd round draft pick back in 2004 out of UVa. He's a work in progress who has a tendency to give up the big innings, but reports are he's recently added a cut fastball that has helped him mitigate this.

Sox Head Into Bronx

There isn't much to say about this mismatch. Really, the only game we should even have a chance at winning is the Tavarez start (I have stopped referring to him as the Anti-Christ after he told me it hurt his feelings and he couldn't face his kids - also after he stopped sucking). Tonight's "Tee-Ball By Beckett" start could be nigh on unwatchable. But I'll still watch it, because we repealed the Prohibition Act.

So, in absence of a win, here are a list of things you can still root for in the Sox-Spanks series:

Wily Mo Pena hits a 600-foot home run into the parking lot which strikes a Yankee fan in the head, thereby stopping an in-progress mugging.
Bobby Abreu's gigantic ass attacks and consumes Randy Johnson before it can be stopped.
ARod strikes out 5 times in a single game and is mauled by angry Yankee fans on his way out of the stadium. He placates them with free haircare products.
Kyle Snyder performs the Wizard of Oz number "If I Only Had A Brain" in between innings.
During a bench-clearing melee Don Zimmer appears from nowhere and attacks Julian Tavarez - you know how this ends.
Manny is called upon to pinch-hit and play an inning in left, and urinates against the left-field fence.
Jason Giambi spontaneously explodes into a massive liquid spray of equal parts HGH, grease, sweat, and guilt.
Derek Jeter comes out of the closet before the first game, saying "Some of you may think less of me now that you know I'm gay, but look at it this way - at least I don't throw like Damon."

Newsflash! Murray Chass Revealed To Be Twelve-Year Old Boy

2006-09-08T09:55:00.000-07:00

In a stunning series of events, it has been revealed that incompetent sports "writer" Murray Chass has been dead for years, and is in fact a twelve-year old Yankees fan who managed to hack into Chass' NY Times corporate network account.

Chass, best known while he was alive for his ability to like bagels AND donuts, made the sports scene while covering the Yankees (and to a lesser degree high society badminton) in 1969 with his article "Amazing Mets Win World Series; Yankees Still Better". Chass' ability to drive circulation allowed Times editors to dispense with the laborious processes involved in fact-checking and accountability, which just increased Chass' already prolific ability to spew forth poorly constructed drivel. New Yorkers could not get enough.

It has seemed that Murray ("Shiny Murray" as he's known to Mary Tyler Moore fans) would always be there for Yankees fans and others with a low-grade education, and in voice he has, but since the recent unmasking of twelve-year old Barry L. Iterrit, there are now more questions than answers.

Thus far Barry has refused to answer the question everyone is asking: "WHEN?" We don't know how long Barry has been churning out the spurious articles, but we do know his heart was in the right place. When asked why, he responded:

"When I found out, my first thought was that my Dad might go crazy and do something stupid, so I decided to just, you know, fake one article or maybe two to buy some time. I figured the paper would replace Murray with someone else my Dad could understand, like that guy who wrote 'Everybody Poops', or Joan Rivers. I was just trying to help. We Yankee fans need Murray to feel good."

At this point, we only know that the charade has been going on at least since 2003. That's when Barry hired James Avery, best known for his role as Will Smith's father on 'Fresh Prince", to portray Chass at a ceremony to receive the 2003 J.G. Taylor Spink Award. When investigators pointed out that Avery was African-American and Chass not, Iterrit replied "he was the best I could do". Low turnout and an open bar at the awards ceremony are attributed to the success of the impersonation.

For now, the investigation goes on, but that can't succor fans, players, and former clinch George Steinbrenner, who are reeling. One Yankee player who requested anonymity stated:

"I don't know what to think. For a while I wondered about the quotes, I mean, they made no sense and I couldn't remember saying any of them, but I just figured that was Murray's way. He was always pulling for us and bashing - I mean really, savagely bashing - the other teams, so it just seemed best to go with it. I guess in retrospect it should have been obvious that the writing, and the agenda, was juvenile, but it's tough enough remembering to take the HGH without...wait....ummmm...nevermind."

The stunning news of the hoax might have caused upheaval throughout Yankee-opolis, but once again a familiar face saved the day. Boss George Steinbrenner stepped up and reassured everyone, everywhere, that the organization would go on. He made a statement yesterday afternoon from his vacation bunker outside Berlin, saying:

"We acknowledge that this is a difficult time for the Yankee family. Rest assured that Murray - er, Barry - will remain on the Yankee payroll - er, New York Times payroll - until further notice. It is the message that is important, and the message will remain."

Follow-up questions, including "what is the message?", "is that a full turtleneck or a dickie?", and "do you ever shampoo?" were met with silence, and in one case, a hired thug beating.

Note from author: This is a parody. Murray is still with us, and sadly, still writing.

Fun On The Farm

2006-09-07T21:10:00.000-07:00

As the big league club re-enacts the Great London Fire, I hope people aren't missing the great stories we have going on in the minors. Currently Portland and Wilmington are in the playoffs with Lowell still fighting for a spot.

Tonight Portland evened up the series against Trenton by pounding the Yankee wannabees by a score of 10-3. New guy George Kottaras DHed and went 2-4 with a HR and a stolen base. Ellsbury went 2-4 with 2 RBIs, both hits coming in the 7th when Portland knocked out starter Tyler Clippard and scored six runs. Seadog starter (and resurgent semi-prospect) Tommy Hottovy pitched six innings and held the Thunder to 3 ER. The final game in the series is tomorrow.

In Wilmington, things didn't turn out so rosy. Michael Bowden pitched extremely well, but his team disappoints him as Wilmington fell to Frederick 2-1. Bowden went 5.1 IP, allowed just one hit (but gave up three walks), and struck out 5. Both runs scored were the result of errors, although Bowden was charged with the first run.

The first run scored when Mark Wagner committed a throwing error on a steal attempt by Paco "Don't Call Me Taco" Figueroa. Paco would score from third on a groundball single by the next batter. Bowden got out of the inning with a routine GB and then a swinging K.

The second run scored when a fielding error by second-baseman Iggy Suarez allowed Pete Maestrales to score from second (Iggy has been "wedgied" in punishment and may miss tomorrow's game after complaining of a "broken asscrack"). Justin Masterson, who was promoted two stops to Wilmington from Lowell, came in and induced the GDP to close out the inning, and went the next 3.2 innings without incident. He struck out 2, walked one, and allowed zero hits. If you haven't heard it elsewhere, let me be the first to say it: Masterson is the shit. I pray he can be developed into a starter, and then not traded (not necessarily in that order).

The Blue Rocks' bats were silenced by Frederick pitcher Craig Anderson, who at 5-1, 4.78 for the season wasn't supposed to pitch 7 innings and give up just 5 hits and a run, but Aussies are a crafty bunch, as we all know. Natale, Lowrie, Johnson, Wagner and Suarez all singled for Wilmington, and Suarez added a BB (not enough to save his asscrack, sadly).

Otness, Bell and Corsaletti went 0/3. Corsaletti also walked and scored. Easy Andy Pinckney took the 0/4 collar and struck out twice to earn the trip to Dairy Queen. Even as we speak, he is morosely eating his Dilly Bar and gearing up to have a huge day tomorrow.

In Lowell, the newly-enhanced Spinners team beat curious Scottish low-A team Aberdeen 6-1. Kris Johnson, Jordan Craft, Dustin Richardson and Josh Papelbon combined for the win, allowing no earned runs. Note: I linked to Johnson's Sox Prospects page instead of directly to the stats page because his picture looks like he's headed straight for Death Row.

Hot bat Mike Jones and Jonathan Still, who DHed, combined for 5 hits and 4 RBIs in the game. Manny Arambarris walked three times, which should only improve his .365 OBP. Little unusual in a #3 hitter, but at least he's showing patience.

In most cases, if we don't pay attention to these guys now we never will, since the vast majority will never make The Show. But for now, it's the perfect cure for a crappy Boston Red Sox season, and it might just be the light at the end of the tunnel.

Red Sox Nation: Civil War

2006-09-06T21:03:00.000-07:00

As if Theo Epstein weren't have a bad enough year already, the prospect he traded away (with another, higher-rated prospect) for under-achieving posterchild Josh Beckett (and $9 Million dollar pretty good guy Mike Lowell) threw a no-hitter tonight for the Florida Marlins. Anibel Sanchez, who also shut down the Spanks during his first start in Yankee Stadium, has the Nation in an absolute uproar. And who's fanning the flames? Official Theo-hater Ken Rosenthal, entitled tonight's episode of his "Drunk Alone" column "Sanchez has no-hitter; Red Sox have no clue". Interestingly, he also panned the Front Office for not trading any prospects at the deadline. I guess he just sucks.

However, Ken's ability to take both positions is schizophrenically representative of the civil war going on throughout Red Sox fandom in this, the Red Sox team's personal equivalent of the Chinese calendar's "Year of the Spastic Colon". Everywhere, sides are taken:

A) The front office are idiots! They keep trading away these great prospects for guys that suck. Beckett sucks, Crisp sucks, Mirabelli sucks. And, their free agent signings also suck! Renteria sucked, Seanez sucked; Tavarez sucks, Clement sucks! Meanwhile, Meredith, Bard, Sanchez and (um) Renteria are great!

and

B) You are an idiot. Proven MLB talent is extremely difficult to acquire. Most prospects flame out. These are the risks of doing business. Success in the NL means absolutely nothing in the AL East, as the aforementioned pitchers have proven so succinctly. It's far too early to decide on the recent trades, and at the time, nobody complained on any of these acquisitions, so kindly shut the fuck up.

Both sides are right, and both sides are wrong, and that will never change. The name of the game is talent evaluation, the key root word being "value". The FO determined that Josh Beckett's MLB-proven talent and upside (bear in mind he's 25) was worth more than the "raw" abilities of Hanley Ramirez and Anibel Sanchez. Ramirez had struggled at AA (.720 OPS his second go round) and Sanchez had an injury history, so they rolled the dice. Were they blinded by Beckett's Yankee-beating in the World Series? Maybe. Did they underestimate the abilities of the two young kids? At this point it sure looks that way.

It's going to come down to this, and correlatively, to hindsight. On every deal. Win-win deals appear to be a rare commodity these days, because you're trading apples and oranges (veteran for prospect, cheap for expensive, etc.), and because these deals don't go down in a vacuum, generally. The Crisp deal is a favorite for the prospy-lovers because Marte was so highly-touted and Crisp has struggled (I myself had difficulty with this one), but because Crisp was supposed to play up the middle, and Marte is a corner, the values are skewed.

In this particular case Crisp has revealed himself also to be a corner, but at the time the thinking was that we need a CF and he fit the bill. And this highlights the concerns we should have with the FO. Not that they trade prospects, or that they wouldn't trade prospects for proven vets, but that some of the guys they bring in don't perform as advertised. Are they accurately evaluating MLB talent?

It appears that they have a good eye for natural talent - take a look at how the prospects are performing; sadly for other teams in some cases. So why when they acquire guys who have had success elsewhere in the bigs do they shit the bed in Boston? Certainly to some degree it's the change in leagues. You could also argue it's the insane nature of the fans and media here, but the fans and media in New York are by and large career criminals who defy evolutionary theory, yet every player who goes to NY invariably improves unless he is a freakishly hideous beanpole redneck with a penchant for theatrics. Is it the coaching? Perhaps; I'm certainly beginning to wonder about the Sox coaches ability to help players improve at the big-league level, Papa Jack excluded. Is it the chemistry? Does this team require an "idiot leader" to succeed?

Honestly - who the hell knows? Personally I think it's a little of each. If you don't have $200Mil to spend on payroll winning the World Series truly is catching lightning in a bottle. And even if you do, there are no guarantees, thank Christ. This year just went to shit, end of story, and now we're pissed off, and everything sucks.

Let's look at the bright side though. If HanRam and Anibel continue to have success in Florida, in a few years we'll be able to trade for them during the Marlins fire sale. We'll still be able to afford them then. God help us if the guys we trade have a better first season, though. There will be hell to pay.

AA Red Sox vs. Yanks

In case you haven't been paying attention, the Portland Sea Dogs are struggling against the Trenton Thunder in the AA playoffs, almost even as we speak. They lost today 3-1. The positive was that Sox prospect Devern Hansack had a good outing with 2 ER in 6.1 IP. The negative was that Yankee uber-prospect Philip Hughes K'ed 13 while BBing one in 6 innings and basically dominated. When he arrives, we are in for bad times. Game Two is 7:05 PM EST tomorrow.

Ending on a High Note

Wilmington (High-A) is also in the playoffs. Clay Buchholz started today and here is his line:

6 IP / 3 H / 1 ER / 1 BB / 10 K

When he arrives, we are in for good times.

The Big Picture

2006-08-31T15:23:00.000-07:00

It's beyond argument now that the 2006 Red Sox season is over, in baseball terms. But Sox fans need to root harder than ever now. Now, we're simply rooting for the health of two of our most beloved players, heart and soul of the team David Ortiz and young gun Jon Lester.

Ortiz was re-admitted to the hospital with more heart arrhythmia, and thankfully appears to be well, but put quite a scare into the Fenway Faithful. As we've learned in the past, these things are tricky, and we should all keep Big Papi in our thoughts, if only to thank him for the truly amazing performances he's given over the past few years. There is no other player like him.

Lester was suffering back pain and swollen lymph nodes, and the Herald (perhaps irresponsibly) reported that he will be tested for cancer. This story made us all catch our collective breath, I'm sure. The kid is only 22 years old, in the prime of life with a starry career ahead of him. We all need him to be okay, to let us continue to believe that at it's heart, baseball is a healing game, a game of life and living in all it's nuanced, small breaths, motions, and pauses. Lymph nodes are used in fighting infection, and it's likely the swelling was due to infection: that is what I am keeping in my mind. Rebound, Jon.

Obviously this blog features none of my usual snarking, for which I apologize (to some degree). It is easy, especially doing this, to forget these guys are just people, just guys living their lives. In the end, I consider myself lucky to have this team, this fan family, and they and we deserve a few minutes of appreciation and hope.

Coming Soon: The trade of Fatty! Where will he be eating next?

Sox Worst in MLB In August

2006-08-27T21:58:00.000-07:00

We're all familiar with the old saying "missing the forest for the trees". Those of us in the habit of breaking the game down into it's myriad components certainly seem to be guilty of this right about now. We all know there are a lot of problems with this club, and the injuries are killing the Sox too, but they are the worst team in all of baseball this month, at 8-17.

The worst team in all of baseball for the month of August. I mean, I don't care what happens to you, you cannot be the worst team in baseball for an entire month at $120 Million a year. Okay, to be fair, they could possibly win the next few days and climb out, but this is truly a debacle. And it gets worse, because en route to accomplishing this feat they were swept by two of the other teams way down on the shit list in Seattle and KC.

I really think we're talked out for 2006. This is a likeable team, player to player, they really are. They're just not good enough. So I'll just ask this on behalf of these players, because if they had thought of it, or cared, they would have: Sox fans, just go out and root for these guys to play hard for pride, and let that be enough for 2006. Maybe this year is punishment for our hubris, I don't know. I'm going with a new fan motto for the rest of the year: Simplify. I'm going to try to appreciate the little things that make baseball great for the rest of the season, and enjoy the game for itself.

This should last about a day since I'm going to the game tomorrow night at the Coliseum to see Kason Gabbard pitch. Since he's really a prospect, I will use that loophole to overanalyze his performance while a well-built A's team continues to steamroll towards the playoffs.

GCL RED SOX WIN! RED SOX WIN!

If you want something to feel good about, the Sox' rookie club won the GCL championship. Story [url=http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060825&content_id=124083&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp] here [/url]. These players are light-years away, but this is great for the franchise.

TOUGH SIGN, UM, SIGNS

Lars Anderson, the sweet swinging, power hitting kid oddly named Lars, has signed. He was really supposed to be a tough sign, but the Sox got it done. If they come to terms with Bard, which looks likely according to reports, the 2006 Draft will be the biggest success of the season for the organization. In terms of actual Red Sox team MLB performance this means nothing, but it's fun to root for "upside", isn't it?

Red Sox Nation: Panic Sets In

2006-08-24T15:35:00.000-07:00

Here we are in mid-August, and the Sox are 4.5 back from their best chance at the playoffs (WC), 6.5 back of the Yankees in the East after getting gang-raped at home, and the bandwagon's wheel-less chassis is being dragged Lasndowne Street by four lame and most likely drunk Clydesdales. If you predicted this situation then you're either a fantastic baseball prognosticator, or you've already killed yourself.

Naturally when things go to shit like they have, people start wanting to blame someone, usually someone else. In the old days everyone would go right after the manager, because their decisions occur during games we lose, and oftentimes can be second-guessed pretty easily. The Yankees have changed all that though, by using their fabulous wealth to solve all baseball problems. Nowadays, if your team starts losing and doesn't fix it, the reason is because your GM didn't buy you better players over the trading window. Affixing blame to the front office also gets folks out from under the weight of having to understand the game, since that is an important component of criticizing the manager. Good times.

Our front office appears to have made some mistakes in their actions and non-actions this year, judging from the standings and heretofore performance of star acquisitions Beckett, Crisp and Mirabelli. Nevertheless, they are adhering to a preset program, which is to put the team in a position to win 90-95 games a year and go from there.

Now, to me, there are two heads to the FO's philosophy that they will build a club to win 90-95 wins every year and see what happens. One is that by not putting all their eggs into one (projected)100+ win super-team filled with expensive free-agents, they will have the flexibility to perhaps make a couple of upgrades come the trade deadline and offseason. The other is plain old luck. In the AL East 90-95 wins does not guarantee a playoff spot - 95 doesn't guarantee a playoff spot. So they're basically admitting that each year the cookie could crumble. Certainly this year the cookie has crumbled, due to a spate of injuries, some underperforming pieces, and a couple tough breaks in a few games here and there.

So, does this philosophy make sense, and is this acceptable? I mean, is that just The Game, playing out over the course of the season? Personally, in spite of some of the more dubious decisions on their part, I can't get that worked up about the F.O. right now. I always felt that this was a team that was built well IF things went our way - maybe to a dangerously high degree, but I attributed that to this being a semi-rebuilding year. Obviously things haven't and the results are painful, but if I'm honest, we're not far deviated from what I saw to be the mean outcome looking at this roster on paper back in the spring. Lotta old guys, lotta young guys - turns out that means a lotta "ifs".

Still, people are enraged that the FO didn't do anything at the deadline, in spite of a farily believable claim that asking prices were too high. People are still complaining that we let Pedro and Damon walk. I understand the sentiment, but the logic behind the belief. Is the consensus that with $120 Million to spend luck should be more or less taken out of the equation? Or perhaps taken out just now, while we have the core players in place? I'm trying to figure out how I'll be happier. Contending every year but with an acknowledged reliance on getting good breaks? Or trying to ride the years where we're primed to take the true "win now" approach. That may mean we have really lean years where I despise watching them, but we would be really IN it for the good years. Or that's the theory. If the Sox have proved anything, it's that bad luck can bite you regardless of what approach you take (for reference, see Dent, Bucky).

I believe the current and future baseball environment will make it much harder simply to use $$$ to precipitate a ton of real "win now" years. The Yankees were able to help themselves to Abreu because he was a product of the free agent insanity that revenus sharing has curbed. So I guess by default I am coming down on the more balanced and luck-reliant approach in the abstract, and the concrete question I'm really asking is - would I be okay with the team utterly sucking when Schilling, Papi and Manny are gone if we really went for it now? Are we as Red Sox fans trying to have our cake and eat it too? Are we just ignoring the fact that if we blow through our prospects we will have some shit years down the road, most likely, or are we stating that we don't care if we have shit years if we win another Championship in the near term.

It seems like this year, at least, we care if we have shit years. We're pretty pissed off, actually. Is that because we think we should have won it all again with the core guys, or is it just because we cannot accept that a Red Sox team sucks while the Yankees are dominant? I know the second part is very hard for me, because my hatred of the Wanks is truly pathological. Or maybe, is it because we had a strong first half, and then collapsed, engendering a Pavlovian response in those of us who remember the collapse years from days gone by. Perhaps we thought 2004 had exorcised them, and were wrong.

The fact that so many of my sentences have ended in question marks tells me one thing: the situation is pretty complex. If I can't come down in a firm position after looking at just some of the angles, I guess it just makes me feel more foolish for attempting to judge Theo and Co. These guys have to deal with the myriad variables of a changing league, all the other shysty GMs, a semi-retarded manager and a clubhouse full of guys who oftentimes don't do what they're supposed to.

It's very possible that the Red Sox F.O. is screwing the pooch, and come 2008 we are going to be really, really bitter. But maybe their plan is the best one, and it just hasn't been fully realized. I think this team still has some legs, and in spite of all my experience, I am going to keep hoping they can compete for the rest of the season and come in next year feeling like they've grown. Maybe 2006 isn't the year, but I won't throw away 2007 yet.

Testing Email Blogging

2006-08-23T10:50:00.000-07:00

Not sure if this will work...

Since Google and Blogger merged, they have fucked a large number of bloggers, myself included. I have not been able to login to my blog in over a week, hence the lack of posts. If this works I will continue to email posts to the blog from here on in.

Shea

Sox Grab Two Left-Handed Bats

2006-08-17T12:24:00.000-07:00

Yesterday the Sox made two moves to add some depth to the team, acquiring 1B Carlos Pena in a free-agent signing, and pulling off another waiver-wire deal for Eric Hinske. The Pena signing is interesting in a "why not" sort of way; it was just two years ago that the guy hit 27 HRs in 486 at-bats (while also striking out more than a quarter of the time) and his glovework at first is well-reputed. In light of the premature demise of Choi's career, this made some sense. Pena will report to Pawtucket.

Hinske will have an immediate impact. He can fill in at 1B, 3B and the OF, and with Mike Lowell determined to end his season by hitting balls off himself, Hinske can really help. His defense cannot sniff Lowell's defense's jock, but he is serviceable, and Mikey needs some rest. It may be that Hinske plays first and Shiny Kevin Youkilis moves back to third; who knows. Either way, Hinske's versatility will serve to give some guys a few much-needed rest days.

There is another added bonus to the Hinske signing also (two, depending on how you look at it). Hinske over the course of the past two seasons has only performing exceptionally well against two teams: Boston and the Yankees.

2006 vs. Sox: AVG .391| OBP .417| SLG .565| OPS .982
2006 vs. Yanks: AVG .368| OBP .429| SLG .737| OPS 1.165

2005 vs Sox: AVG .393| OBP .439| SLG .672| OPS 1.112
2005 vs. Yanks: AVG .314| OBP .356| SLG .510| OPS .866

Actually in 2005 he also killed KC, but I can't really count that as "performing exceptionally". The short story here is we have added a Yankee-killer to our team while simultaneously subtracting a Sox-killer from a division rival. Of course, these things sometimes have a way of not holding up over time, so right now the best way to view this is as entertainment, with a side of hope. That being said, it's nice that the deal was made right before the big Sox-Yanks series.

OBP Machines On The farm

There are currently four players in the Red Sox minor league organization with OBPs over .400. Granted, none of them is above A-Ball, but in some ways that is also encouraging.

Topping the list is Aaron Bates, who appears to be bored by the NYPL, with an OBP of .436, thanks in large part to a BA of .360. He only has 100 ABs under his belt, but he is eating up rookie-ball pitching for the Lowell Spinners.

Zach Daeges ist he true steel, with an OBP of .423 in 166 ABS, and a nearly 1:1 K:BB ratio. Daeges has nearly twice as many RBIs as the next closest player with 30 (to Still's 17), and really appears to have an advanced approach at the plate. Hard not to like this kid.

At Lowell, Zak Farkes also has an OBP above .400 at .409, but given his high-ish K rate (above 20%) and low-ish BB rate (around 8%) I don't see this continuing. He's hitting .329 right now. Still, you have to hope Farkes progresses enough to reach the majors just to give us the possibility of a Foulke-Farkes matchup during an ESPN telecast. Joe Morgan would crap himself.

Not surprisingly Jeff Natale is the only player with an OBP above .400 that isn't in rookie ball. His 1-1 with 3 BBs performance yesterday pushed him up to .406. His average and slugging are still depressed, at .256 and .333 respectively, but strike zone command is certainly not the issue. The Italian God of Walks must be bemusing Billy Beane right about now. Sadly, his defense is still an issue as he has 10 errors in just 68 games (although that is better than Renteria).

It occurs to me that if I still lived back east, I'd head to Lowell for a game while the guys we drafted this year are playing there. There will be some legitimate talent there the next couple of years (and hopefully beyond, but you know), and it's not that far from NH if you needed beer on a Sunday anyway. Why not?

Looking Ahead

2006-08-15T14:29:00.000-07:00

I think it's becoming evident by now that the coin has landed on the "rebuilding" side. All in all, I think the FO did a decent job of putting together a 2006 team that could have been extremely competitive had they been extremely lucky health-wise, had some over-performers, and maybe caught lightning in a bottle. This team did not pan out that way; that's baseball. Technically they're still right there in the mix, but it's pretty clear given their current performance level that come September they will not be in the catbird seat.

Previously I focused on the offense's poor situational hitting, not really as a means of explaining the losing, but as a contributor to it due to their leaving a lot of runs on the table. I thought it was interesting in light of the fact that when you just look at run production the team still performs versus the rest, at #4 in the AL since the break. The issue is that they weren't performing to potential situationally. Still, you can't complain when your team averages more than five runs a game. The pitching, of course, is what is killing this team.

Since the All-Star Break here's how our pitching has fared against the rest of the AL:

Record: 15-16 (speaks for itself)
ERA: 4.99 (only TB, Balt. and KC are worse, and yes, we just went 4-6 against them)
R/ER: 175/154 = 22 Un-Earned runs (worst in AL)
WHIP: 1.50 = avg. of 13.5 baserunners per 9 (only Seattle, Balt, TB and KC are worse)
OBP Against: .352 (tied with Seattle and Balt. TB and KC are worse)
SLG Against: .451 (CWS, Balt, TB and KC are worse)
CS/SB: 23/4 (only CWS at 25/4 are worse)

I don't think there is anyone in RSN, myself included, who would have predicted this situation looking at the roster in the spring. Injuries and some unexpectedly poor performances have put us behind the eight-ball. We probably aren't going to get there this year, so let's look ahead.

The question of course, now that the free agent market has become a pit fight beyond anything we have previously known, is who from within the system will contribute in the near future? I like to follow the young guys because it's fun to do so - they're young, living the dream, having the occasional big night - but the reality is that most of these guys will not become big leaguers.

Here are some players, by league, that might contribute in the 2007-2008 seasons:

AAA: Pawtucket's much-heralded spark plug/fire hydrant Dustin Pedroia is the only player who looks like he's ready for the bigs. David Murphy has the draft pedigree, but hasn't performed well enough to be expected to contribute. There are no pitchers in AAA who will help the big-league club much.

AA: Ellsbury is the cream of the crop here, and probably in the system. He was recently named Eastern League Player of the Week. He is insanely fast, has a bit of gap power, and is plus defensively. It would be fantastic if he were ready for 2007 but it's likely we see him late 2007/for 2008. The fact that he has two last names guarantees us something.

There is some hope hard-throwing converted catcher Edgar Martinez might help out of the bullpen. He was an All-Star this year, and can bring the heat with a couple of balance pitches in his repertoire. Having Rich Garces as your MLB comparison kind of leaves one with mixed feelings though, doesn't it? (Note: I linked to Martinez's Sox Prospects page not to make you click-through to get his stats, but so you could see that he is chubby - like El Guapo.)

Brandon Moss is still languishing in AA but remains on Sox Prospect's top ten list at #10. This is hard to swallow, but if accurate doesn't bode well. I just can't see how it's accurate. He's nearly 23 and middling-to-good in AA. Chad Spann is his doppleganger, although has hit for more power in AA with a .472 SLG this year. Spann surprised people, so might still be on the upswing. If I had to put money on one horse it would be Spann, but it would be money I found on the ground in a public restroom and wasn't attached to.

Luis Jimenez is the x-factor. Knicknamed "Little Papi" due to his immense size and somewhat considerable power, Jimenez has hit 15 HRs in AA in just 329 ABs, but also managed to amass just a .465 SLG - lower than Spann's. Strikes out almost 20% of the time, but also walks a bit. He seems to get injured a lot recently, so the book is still out on LP.

Single-A: It's always a stretch to consider anyone from A-ball contributing at the major league level in two years. Hansen is sort of "contributing" now, but he was deemed nearly major-league ready right out of college (turns out that may have been a rose-tinted assessment).

In Wilmington, there are a few guys that could contribute in the short term. First is Bryce Cox, the fireballing reliever drafted after dominating for Rice in the CWS. His stuff is supposed to be electric, but then, so was Hansen's. Nevertheless, he has moved through the system quickly already.

Jed Lowrie has battled injuries, but comes with a pedigree. He has stalled this year in overcoming his setbacks, but there is the chance that he could come back strong and move quickly next year. He showed some surprising power in college, putting up an OPS over 1.100 his junior and senior year. He has to be considered a longshot, but we'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Mark Wagner (picture link included for laughs) has just been promoted to Wilmington after tearing up low-A in Greenville. At this point he has to be considered the top Catcher prospect in the system, due to... well, there being no others to speak of. He shows good strike-zone command at the plate, and has hit for average and (some) power this year.

Another recent promotee is Clay Buchholz. He has a live arm, and apparently drew some interest over the trade deadline. It might be a stretch to see him make the bigs for the Sox, but if he's ready in 2008 the timing would be pretty sweet.

In Greenville still, Michael Bowden has put together some strong performances, and if he continues to perform at his current level he could move quickly could make the jump. He is big boy with a pitcher's body, and has got excellent peripherals thus far into his career.

That's pretty much it. Positionally, only Pedroia and Ellsbury look sure to help the team over the next couple of years. This year's draft was a good one but there is noone who will be close to ready by 2008, barring a miracle (okay, maybe Masterson). Cox and Martinez will probably end up in the bullpen, maybe as soon as later next year, and we can hope we see Buchholz and/or Bowden making some spot starts in 2008.

The short version is this: it's going to be another exciting off-season. Now, back to your regularly scheduling Red Sox supporting. As I like to say" 'Probability's got nothing to do with it".

Swing Low, Sweet Chariot

2006-08-11T14:24:00.000-07:00

Comin' for to carry me home.

The Sox have just endured what is the worst road trip in recent memory, having just lost 5 of 6 to the two (arguably) worst franchises in the majors. The split against Cleveland, thanks to our old pal Fausto, netted the team a final record of 3-7 for the trip, and when they arrive at Fenway today they will be fortunate not to be pronounced DOA.

There is nothing left to say right now. The pitching is incredibly poor, and the offense is not producing runs unless one of the Big Three goes yard. Poor starts and execrable relief outings have engendered a vicious circle that is killing the team. In spite of the ultimate outcome last night, Schilling's (near)8-inning effort last night was the best thing to happen to these guys in a while.

I'm just repeating myself at this point, but it is what it is. We're at the point where the players play and the managers manage, and it's time for them to get to it. In Wily Mo's case this might be hard - he is batting seventh, protected in the lineup by sarcasm-inspiring white-hot bat javy Lopez. Oh, Tito, why?

On to brighter pastures...

Signings

Two high-upside high school prospects signed with the Sox, Ryan Kalish and Tyler Weeden. Both were considered longshots at the time of the draft, so this is good news, tempered by the fact that it could indicate the Sox are missing out on a couple other coveted draftees.

Ryan Kalish: 6' 1" 200lbs - L/L Kalish was a three sport athlete for Red Bank Catholic High School. The Virginia sports page had this to say:

"Kalish is ranked No. 76 by Baseball America. He's four-year starter for Red Bank Catholic having led the team in hitting the past three seasons. He owns a .466 career batting average having produced 100 hits in his first three seasons for the Red Bank Catholic. On the mound, Kalish has recorded 190 career strikeouts. He led the conference in stolen bases. Kalish has garnered all-parochial, all-conference and all-division team honors in baseball. He is a three-sport athlete (baseball, football, basketball) and has led Red Bank Catholic to its first division championship since 1989 as the starting quarterback. As a sophomore, he hit .507 and drove in 21 runs and posted a 6-1 record with a 1.60 ERA."

Moreover according to the Sox's Jason McLeod, Bosox scouts claim he didn't swing and miss at a pitch the entire season. That is pretty impressive. Kalish hasn't hit for HR power yet but had a .578 SLG in high school, and is pretty much the definition of "projectible" at this point. Comparisons are being made to Trot Nixon, and that's pretty good, although it would help if Kalish could hit lefties.

Tyler Weeden: 6' 2" 200lbs - R/R Rumor had that Weeden was a no-sign some time ago, so this came as a surprise to me, albeit a pleasant one. Tyler was also a state-level quarterback in high school. On some level I guess this makes he and Kalish annoying, since they obviously got much more tail than I ever did in high school, but whatever. Moving on.

Baseball America had this to say about Ty:

"Though Ty can throw 90-92 mph off the mound, he won't follow in his brother's footsteps as a pitcher. Scouts still talk about the batting-practice show he put on at the Area Code Games last summer, displaying tremendous power to all fields. If scouts believed he could play catcher, he'd go in the first two rounds. But they're skeptical because he doesn't have the agility or receiving skills to match his arm strength. He's probably destined for first base, where much more offense is required, because he may lack the athleticism to handle an outfield corner. Nevertheless, his righthanded power is a valuable commodity, and he'll be a decent draft pick if he's considered signable away from Arkansas."

Weeden will not play this season due to his signing a 2007 contract, but as we are learning to our disgust now, having more power in the organization never hurts. Good signs, both.

Sure, the pitching sucks, but...

2006-08-09T10:43:00.000-07:00

Since my quiet (yet enraged) acceptance that our pitching would suck nearly every appearance, I have spent my time watching games with the hope that the Sox would score ten runs every outing. They never do, and this puzzles me because they always seem to be threatening. The Sox are excellent threateners, but do not seem to follow up with action. It occurred to me that perhaps I was just catching them during off nights - I can't watch all the games - so I decided to look at how the team is performing on offense situationally.

You probably won't be surprised to learn that I was not pleased with what I found out. Let's take a quick look at the team OPS by team in the AL, for the season. I have broken them out by situation (double-click to open larger image):

A couple things jump right out, don't they? First off, the Sox are the only team to get progressively worse at the plate until they are in a 2-out RISP position. Now, they're starting pretty high with that .828 OPS with nobody on, but the pattern is not what you want to see. Cleveland is a good example of a team that succeeds regardless of the situation.

Next, the fact that the Sox absolutely suck ass with the bases loaded is pretty disappointing isn't it? They do lead the league in bases-juiced sac flys, which is nice. This might be due to their also league-leading .70 GB:FB ratio in that situation (this hasnt stopped them from being right up there in DPs, don't worry). Another strange factoid from the bases-loaded stats page - the Spanks lead the league in HBP with the bags full, at SIX. They are not afraid to lean into one.

The story is pretty clear, although there are no doubt several reasons for it. In spite of being second in the league in runs scored, the Sox are leaving a ton of runs on the table. It would appear they are averaging 8.38 men LOB per game (see the Triumphant Red Sox Fan Forum). That's really just not very good. I mean, it's good that their high-OBP mantra has paid off because with their total inability to consistently drive guys in (Papi and Manny excluded) that is how they're scoring runs - attrition. My point is that with more consistent situational production the awful, awful, just awful pitching might be more easily weathered.

As I mentioned earlier there are probably a lot of reasons for this situation. One of them, however, has to the be this: the Sox get the worst production out of the #5 spot in the lineup of any team in the AL. In all of MLB, only Florida's OPS is lower (.682 to Boston's .695). How is that possible? Here are some figures:

SLG: .354 (worst in MLB)
Total Bases: 149 (worst in MLB)
RBIs: 51 (tied for 3rd worst in MLB)
BBs: 68 (tied for 2nd to top in MLB)

The walks might be an indicator that the hitter isn't seeing a ton of good pitches to hit, but the #1 BB count at the five-spot belongs to the Yankees who are producing at a .966 OPS with a .549 SLG in the position. So it's hard to argue that with any conviction. Rather, it looks like the approach is the one I used in second grade: "a walk's as good as a hit - maybe better!"

I think at this point most of us would like to see Lowell or WMP in the five-hole, with Youks leading off and Crisp hitting down in the order. Youks doesn't have speed but is getting on base in front of the guys who consistently drive in runs. Crisp's speed would be best used in creating runs for the bottom of the order guys. Or so it seems to us in our armchairs. But, really, when all is said and done, we're just nitpicking. If it gets right down to it, we'd simply like to see a win and the lineup be damned.

Sox vs. D-rays: Diary of a Train Wreck

2006-08-05T21:22:00.000-07:00

What is there to say? A loss to the Strip Club is never acceptable, but it's generally best even while losing, as a rule of thumb, not to be confused with a drunken softball team. And I'm not even singling Wells out here.

Are we familiar with Casey Fossum? I think we are. Do we believe that Casey is a skilled major league starter? Umm, no; historically, no. We think Casey is a guy with a career 5.12 ERA, a .275 BAA, and in general, no staggering ability. We acknowledge that Casey's last start against Detroit was a gem, but also note that in his previous outing he gave up 5 ER and 7 R in 1.1 IP versus Anaheim.

In retrospect, I both have no idea who the aforementioned "we" are, and (and this is much more unfortunate) I guess I also don't know how Fossum differs from Beckett, outside of the price tag. That is a pretty sad admission. But look:

Beckett:

Fossum:

Fossum is a 27-year old left-hander making $2 million dollars a year. No one is expecting him to be an ace, and generally speaking, he isn't - except against the much-vaunted Red Sox lineup of course. But, at least so far in 2006, he's as much an ace as Josh Beckett. Maybe someone needs to explain to Joshie that strikeouts are fun, but keeping the goddamn ball in the park is maybe more fun. Other than this, I have no point.

Oh, wait, I have one point. Thus far, Javy Lopez is 0-for-9 with two pretty brutal double-plays and in general looks lost at the plate. It's early, but I'm thinking to myself, how much bounce-back did I have at 35? I mean, without the anti-aging properties of PBR. He really (no, really) needs to perform. It might be time for an inspirational speech from Wily Mo, along the lines of "if you don't start hitting, I will crush your puny head in my fist like a grape". In my mental clubhouse, that is how Wily Mo rolls. Yes, he is a Super Genius, but sometimes he doesn't need the big brain.

Tomorrow it appears we'll get another look at Jason Johnson, and I know we're all silently mulling over the possibility of using the term "re-invigorated". Or, for some of us, perhaps the term "less sucky" would be more appropriate. Either way, JJ needs to keep us in the game, and we need to score more than a single run against another Tampa Bay "ace".

Lopez On Board; Stern Overboard

2006-08-04T12:33:00.000-07:00

According to Sean McAdam in the Projo, Adam Stern will go to the Orioles via waivers in exchange for Javy Lopez. This is a classic overpay, although the consensus is that Stern probably didn't have a home on the Sox barring another injury (and those almost never happen!). I for one am sad to see Stern go; our outfield defense is nightmarish, and will be no better in 2007. I had hoped to see Stern on the bench next year, although perhaps Ellsbury is expected to be ready by the second half.

McAdam also covers the correlative drama around the transaction, which is that the Devil rays may claim Stern out of spite in retribution for the Sox speaking to Lugo's agent during the trading window. For the umpteenth time the same question arises - is the front office in Tampa actually just a bunch of crack-addicted strippers? Maybe. Do they need another outfielder? No.

The net effect of their claim would be that Baltimore would have to wait until next year to get Stern, so tampa Bay would in fact be revenging themselves against Baltimore, who apparently have insulted them by either a) trading with Boston or b) getting too frisky in the VIP room.

Gumptastic

There has been a lot of hand-wringing over Tito's mismanagement of last night's game against the Tribe. Essentially people are disturbed that:

He left Beckett in to give up 7 consecutive hits, including two home runs.
He did not pinch hit for Ken Huckaby, the batting equivalent of Ray Charles, with the bases loaded and nobody out shortly thereafter.
He did not pinch hit for Mirabelli with a one-run deficit and two-out in the 9th.

Let me explain these decisions in such a fashion that no one is confused. It's important as fans that we understand how our manager's mind works so we can get on the same page. Tito's reasons are below, for each respesctive decision.

He had called the bullpen after Hafner's homer, but no one answered the phone, so he assumed no one was there.
He thought Huckaby was "due" so he consulted the Magic 8-Ball, and although he worded his question ambiguously he got a confirming response.
He had bet Dougie ten bucks that Dougie would get a grooved fastball and miss it, and he wanted to win that bet.

As you can see, he had perfectly good reasons for his non-moves in each case. Do not doubt Tito. He has a 17-man roster and he is using it to near perfection.

The Bad News

Yesterday I alluded to the fact that the Sox are now underdogs. I wasn't necessarily referring to the fact that the Yankees are in first place and will likely remain there for the rest of the season. I was actually referring to the fact that BP's projections have the Sox with just a 59% chance of making the post-season. The PECOTA projection sim has them at 62% but the PECOTA numbers assumed a healthy Wakefield and Varitek. Let's round off and say sixty percent.

The question that I keep asking myself is, "is that okay"? I mean for most teams if you told them they had a 60% shot at the beginning of the season they'd be pretty psyched up, but of course, they wouldn't be spending the money the Sox are spending. If like me you think for $130 million or so bucks you should be looking at a figure closer to 80%, you have to wonder what went wrong. Why is this team struggling to make the postseason?

Let's see:

Starters Clement, Fatty McFatfat, and Wake go down with injury. The team brings up Lester, who performs admirably, but Johson and Snyder don't get it done.
Second "ace" Josh Beckett has an ERA of 5.00 and cannot keep the ball in the park. I've talked about this before, and maybe it's just me, but he has to throw inside or has to throw fewer fastballs. Every hitter is sitting dead-red on him, every at-bat. You can't blow it by them all.
Julian Taverez and Rudy Seanez combine to hasten the apocalypse in nearly every appearance. Their combined WPA for the season? Negative 222. Only Andy Sisco and Elmer Dessens for the Royals can best (worst?) that number, and they had to combine for nine losses and eight blown saves to do so.
Varitek's offense goes into the toilet. Did the WBC wear him down prematurely, or has he been battling the knee all along? Upon arriving in the septic tank Tek's offense says hello to Mirabelli's, which has been squatting there for some time.
Crisp breaks his finger and misses a third of the season, and struggles to regain his form. It should be noted that for the Damon years it ws frequently noted that "As Johnny goes, so go the Red Sox" - Crisp was supposed to fill that void. Youks has done an impressive job but is not as disruptive as a healthy Crisp who could actually bat leadoff would be. I am reserving judgement on whether or not there is a leadoff hitter still living inside Coco's body, yearning to be free. However, I suspect not.

These are all pretty obvious, and are certainly contributors. The things is this. The Yankees lost Sheffield and Matsui nearly for the season and replaced them with Melky Cabrera, Bernie Williams, Bubba Crosby, and Aaron Guiel. Damon spent time on the DL, Posada spent time on the DL - they never slowed down. To some extent, this is due to the fact that weak teams roll over for them. But marginal players seem to play above themselves in the pinstripes (for reference see Small, Aaron; Chacon, Shawn) when the Spankees need help.

The Sox have not seen that happen, obviously. Doug Mirabelli has been Doug Mirabelli, only worse. Jason Johnson has been Jason Johnson, only worse. Kyle Snyder has been Kyle Snyder, but not really worse, so I guess I have no point with him. We're now to the stage in the season where for this team to seriously contend, one of these guys needs to step up and say "I'm better than this". I think Torre is good at getting guys to do that; I don't think Tito is.

The Good News

There is still a bright and shiny core driving this team. This is undeniable. Theo, for all the shit he's taking now for getting nothing done for the deadline, has done a pretty admirable job of getting professional ballplayers who are self-motivated and come to ballpark ready to win. This mitigates what in my mind is Tito's major weakness - he does not inspire (it should be noted that he also does not combust, and in Boston that is a plus). There is not a single member of the team assembled to start this season that doesn't know how to get the job done every day. Even Wells, in his own drunken, morbidly obese way, is a gamer.

That is why this team is still in the race despite the hurdles. They are not getting significant contributions from the fillers, but the core players are finding ways to win. Ortiz is performing at a simply heroic level right now. Manny is hitting for power with consistency. Lowell turned his career around and is a key performer for the Sox. Youks and Loretta have fought their way through slumps to continue to contribute in key situations. Gonzalez had adjusted to hitting in the AL and is outperforming his best projections. And Crisp, who has struggled at the plate and in the field, has stayed positive throughout, and might be breaking through, having raised his batting average 17 points in the past 10 days.

Of course, this leaves the pitching staff. If the bats are keeping the team afloat, the pitching is punching holes in the boat. Still, at 39 Schilling is having a fantastic season. Beckett for all his disappointing outings has shown flashes of brilliance. Lester appears to be the real deal although it is just his first time through the league. Papelbon has been a force of nature, and MDC and Hansen are getting better as they gain experience. Nevertheless, let's face facts: there are some shiny areas here, but it's going to be a white-knuckle flight coming in.

I'll say it again; it will all probably fall to Wake and Wells to get us to the postseason if we do indeed make it. I think Snyder has some real potential, but isn't there yet mentally. Johnson is a mystery, but doesn't appear to have the stuff right now, in spite of his improved recent start. And that's it - realistically, there are no other starters who can contribute this year.

So pick your horse, because at some point we're all going to be riding him in a big game, trying to get home. Maybe it will be Wake, and the knuckler will flutter and hitters will flail and all will be well. Maybe it will be Wells, and he'll gut his way through another game, one step ahead of the Big Inning. Or, maybe not. Maybe it will in fact be Snyder, or maybe Johnson. If so, just pray they step up, sack up, and Believe.

Red Sox Now Underdogs: Will Guts Be Enough In 2006?

2006-08-02T10:20:00.000-07:00

The fallout from the trading window has arrived, and it is radioactive. Ken Rosenthal is particularly harsh in his criticism, but then Ken's entire niche is reporting on trades, so I could imagine he's pretty pissed whenever any team a) doesn't do a deal and b) doesn't leak information. Nevertheless, he has a point. The FO did not improve the team for one reason or another, and it's going to be a long tough road home.

We can all agree that it's important to adhere to your long-term plan and keep your top prospects in the current MLB environment, which is starting to move towards parity. One wonders how long the window to win with the current stars is open though. Schilling may be gone next year, Manny will probably slow down a bit more, and it's nearly impossible to imagine Ortiz continuing to perform at this level. More problematically, there is nothing here to replace their production. Beckett will probably not be Schilling. The Super Genius, much as I love him, will never be Big Papi. And Coco will most certainly never be Manny.

2007 will be a watershed year for Theo Epstein and his team - if this is the "stand pat" year, next year has to be the "Series or Bust" year, or people may simply lose faith in their architecture of the team.

The acquisition of Javy Lopez via a waiver-wire trade for a PTBNL, if/when finalized, hopefully addresses the Varitek injury from the offensive side. Although Lopez is 35 and hasn't been playing regularly he's certainly capable of getting hot for a couple months while trying to earn a contract for 2007 somewhere. His defense is remarkably bad, literally; whenever he is mentioned, his poor defense is remarked upon. As we saw tonight though, it just won't do to have a $135 Million dollar payroll and a starting catcher hitting .180.

However, the Cleveland series had some high notes, and the Sox showed the same never-say-die character we loved about the 2004 team. Two walk-off wins in three days is huge, and shows that this team has some fight in it yet. The pitching simply has to improve, though; there is no way around it.

So say a prayer to Fausto Carmina - but for him we would have been swept by Cleveland. And while you're down there, you might want to take a minute to speak up on behalf of Fatty McFatFat. His back needs to start carrying some weight.

No Cavalry This Year: Sox Stand Pat

2006-07-31T17:04:00.000-07:00

A snoozer of a trade deadline has come and gone, and with the exception of journeyman mediocrity Bryan Corey, the Red Sox did not acquire any new faces. We heard rumors of massive multi-player deals that were in the works, ever in the works, but nothing reached consummation. Except, perhaps, the growing feeling among the other GMs that Theo and Co. were yanking them around (if you believe illegitimate Steinbrenner offspring Buster Olney).

The initial reaction to this of course is one of disappointment. It's fun to get new shiny things, and there are so many glaring holes on this team that we all assumed that would be exactly what happened. It is painful, but we will continue to see the Anti-Christ take the mound. We will continue to watch 90% of all ground balls to the second base area turn into base hits. And we will continue to wonder "will we ever win a game behind a #5 starter again"? It's tough.

However, this front office values the future and in today's baseball where parity is becoming the norm, that means keeping your young prospects. GMs around baseball know the pressure Theo and co. are under playing against the Yankees in the East. The asking prices for mediocre players are inflated and the asking prices for quality players are sky-high. Maybe this scenario demands they get creative and put together multi-team blockbusters, or perhaps they feel that is the best way to get value regardless of the market. Whatever the reasons, these complicated deals are notoriously difficult to close, and when the smoke cleared this afternoon, there was no fire.

The Yankees improved their team in the short-term with the additions of Abeu and Lidle. While Lidle is not dominant, it's safe to say he's better than Chacon, and certainly better than Kyle Snyder. He is insurance. Abreu gives them a run creator, and a solid all-around ballplayer. He he has an OBP of .427 and has some spped with 25 SBs, which in the Yankee lineup is going to translate into runs, and runs have a way of translating into wins.

The short version at this point appears to be that the Sox will once again be fighting for the wild card in the AL East. Nothing is over, but they are playing three wins above their pythag wins right now, and their schedule gets tougher in the second half. The Yankees rotation is solid from 1-5, and they are going to score more runs from here on in. It is what it is. Nothing is easy in the AL East.

Still, let me reiterate: nothing is over. The Sox don't have a #4 or #5 starter, but perhaps that will change. Wells' outing tonight is...well, awful... but he's thrown five innings and hasn't collapsed in a pile of fat and BBQ sauce yet, so there's hope. Wake should be able to rehab in time for the playoffs. Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius will be in the lineup every day and due to his magical powers anything can happen. The last point is probably the one you want to hold on to. Remember the magic.

Edit: Fuck the magic, Varitek has apparently left the game with a knee injury. As I've noted before Doug Mirabelli's understanding of game calling consists of the phrase "I call it a game because that's what it is." If the injury is serious we're pretty much screwed.

Huh?

Today's interesting tidbit from the farm is this: Greenville is being no-hit through six innings by a pitcher whose last name is "Outman". He is a very literal person.

Sox Forfeit, Yanks Cheat Again, Bosoxwest rants

2006-07-26T20:16:00.000-07:00

Alert: ranting below.

In a piece of shocking misfortune, I spent a considerable sum of money purchasing tickets to a game that Tito Francona forfeited. Sadly, I didn't realize Tito had done this until I arrived to understand that he had supported Kyle Snyder, our fragile 5th "starter", by granting him the peculiar game-calling skills (and bat, of course) of idiot non-savant Doug Mirabelli. Dougie was wise enough to insure that the only truly dangerous bat in Oakland's lineup (Frank Thomas) saw a grooved fastball whenever he wanted one. He somehow seemed to be unaware that Kyle doesn't throw his fastball with any control and in fact is more comfortable with his curve.

Dougie was also skillful enough to swing at every off-speed offering from Dan Haren, then head back to the dugout marvelling at Haren's "not that fast fastball". Basically, watching Dougie today was like repeatedly punching ones-self in the crotch. As it turns out, the Oakland folks don't even bat an eye when crotches are self-punched, so that worked out well in an unfortunate way.

Short story is Snyder looked like a dog who'd been kicked by his master (he had) and performed in a fairly uninspired and self-defeating fashion. I think it's safe to say he lacked passion today. I'm just basing this on the 12 minutes it took him to walk from the mound to the dugout after each half-inning, and the fact that his chin never left his skeletal upper chest. Maybe I read too much into the body language - look how wrong I was about Derek Lowe and Clement....errr....nevermind.

Meanwhile, hours later, the Yanks take yet another game from the Texas Rangers on a ninth-inning dinger by baseball's longest-running cheater Jason Giambi. Over several days of beers and chatter the west coast Red Sox fans have come to two conclusions:

Jason Giambi has put on a physically impossible amount of muscle in the past 18 months and will soon be dead from the abuse, but will continue to help the Yankees win and will ultimately be without legal recourse, per his contract with George Steinbrenner.
The Texas Rangers have been paid to drop games to the Yankees as part of the A-Rod trade. In 2006 alone they are 2-8 against a PEDestrian Yankee team, and today's loss was a bona fide work of art. Only Tampa Bay and Kansas City have rolled over with such girlish alacrity, but of course that was to be expected.

There isn't much to be done about number one, and it's pretty difficult to prove number two given how truly incompetent the Hart/Showalter combo is, so essentially we're left hoping a streaky and sometimes unimpressive Red Sox team can somehow outlast a Yankee squad riding an ungodly streak of pure luck, clutch performance, and the latest in performance enhancing drugs.

Notes from the Coliseum

Here are a couple things I noted from watching the Sox - As series in Oakland...

A's fans are even worse than I remember. On Monday there was an 80/20 Sox fans to A'sfans split, which really bummed me out, because the Giants have great attendance and a baseball team that is far less impressive than the A's. However during today's day game the ratio normalized, due to (as I learned to my distress) the ability of the A's senior citizen set to attend. It was like watching the Sox game on the TV in the living room while the kitchen TV was blaring Happy Days in the background. Unnerving, quite frankly.
Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius is a behemoth. He is gigantic, is freakishly fast, and threw so hard in a between-inning catch with Van Buren that JVB had to start loading up and firing his throws back to avoid being shown up. If he is traded by the Sox I will be very very disappointed, unless it's to the Pats.
Mark Loretta is a statue. I cannot stress this enough. His lateral movement is that of a fully-retrofitted multi-story tower during a mild breeze. Several times we all got very excited to watch important ground-ball basehits roll up the middle on the second base side only to discover to our dismay that with Ellis at second they were routine outs. We had just been fooled because they were hits for the A's. Pedroia must be licking his chops.

Trade Talk

Everything I have heard thus far has struck me as absolute hooey. I'm not just saying this just to use the term "hooey" either. One of the stories has the FO in the mix for Lugo, which I have to think is just a smokescreen to up Toronto's output for the 30-year old rental. If it were actually in their plans to move to a more offensively talented SS I would hope they target 26-year old Wilson Betemit in Atlanta, who put up an OPS near .800 in limited time last season and is at .844 thus far this year in just under 200 ABs. Rumor has it the Yankees have already done so. In the long term, I think allowing them to acquire Betemit would be a far worse outcome than if the Jays acquired Lugo for two months. He would provide the Yankees with a three-position utility man off the bench with some pedigree, or allow them to move Cano for pitching.

In spite of Snyder's tough outing today I am pretty sure the rumored Lieber/Burrell acquisition will not happen. Lieber is not good enough to warrant taking Burrell's albatross contract. Actually, to me, Lieber is not good enough to trade for. I'd question signing him as a free agent. He hasn't impressed in the NL, and that speaks for itself. He is known for pounding the strike zone (although not recently), and would benefit from the Sox defense when pitching to contact, but he's just not worth anything in the way of young talent.

Burrell is a decent hitter with some power and a good batting eye, but is a poor situational hitter and his defense is poor due to his injury woes. He is owed 9.5 Million next year, 13 Million the following and has a team option for 14 Million in 2008. No thanks.

This of course still leaves us in the unenviable position of waiting on the return of Wells, and/or Wakefield, and hoping whatever patchwork measures are taken in the interim work out. The dealing deadline looms in 4 days and from all accounts the sellers are gouging. I'd prefer we don't bite. But then, I'd also prefer we keep winning. This probably explains why I'm not a GM.

Red Sox Draftee Update

2006-07-24T09:46:00.000-07:00

I thought I'd compile some basic stats for the guys we drafted this year, as a quick follow-up for those of you who care. I find it entertaining to follow them from the beginning, so if you only care about the big club, indulge me.

Note on the images: I know they are godawful, but I cannot spend another second figuring them out. Hopefully they enlarge OK.

Position players first:

Obviously the guys who stand out (good) here are Bates, Daeges, and Chambers, who I think has surprised a few people in a Jeff Natale sort of way. The thing to note about Chambers, apart from his stellar strike-zone knowledge, is that he's hitting .275 with a .288 BABIP - just below average, and so he's not getting a lot of luck. Conversely, Bates's BABIP is at a freakish and unsustainable .434. Given that Bates is also controlling the strike zone extremely well and hitting for power it's hard to argue that he's getting by on luck - I'm just saying if Chambers had a few seeing-eye hits, he'd likely be up over .300 in BA. In order to be supportive of Bates since his promotion, I am refraining from inserting a joke about his motel or the creepy deaths occurring therein.

Place is the guy we want to watch of course, as he was the number one pick overall. He's just 18, which if you think about it is almost scary. He's started a little slow but it's very, very early for him. He suffers from having a very dull name, and therefore is difficult to poke fun at, but if he can overcome this handicap I think he'll have a long and productive career.

A lot of the other guys are not adjusting particularly well, as one can see. For some that is not much of a surprise but there are a couple who were probably expected to do better out of the gate. My guy is Khoury; he struck me as a Pedroia-type gamer and I still expect him to pick his game up and make the next step. I think he has a lot more than he's shown thus far, although to be fair he's not quite in the tank or anything. Nevertheless, I predict he starts to improve steadily. Otherwise I will be dumping his ass and adopting slightly odd My Space character Kris Negron.

On to the pitchers:

Cox, Johnson and Masterson are the class of the group, but you might have guessed that already due to Sox Prospects having them listed as the 11th, 12th and 15th top prospects in the system. Again, Sox was moved to Wilmington with surprising alacrity, prompting some pundits to wonder if there was a chance the FO wanted to see him in Boston in September. I struggle with this theory given how much he was used in the College World Series. I think the feeling is that he is simply too advanced for Greenville.

Richardson and Beazley are intriguing. Richardson evidences good control and the ability to strike guys out, but also seems to get ripped on occasion. Beazley's line is solid, but at this level you kind of need a little more than that, and he needs to keep the ball in the park. Still, there is time, and given his college (granted, it was Randolph-Macon) line of 108 Ks to 18 BBs in 88 innings, I think he'll be given full opportunity to show what he can do.

Lawson cannot find the plate. With Clay and Craft waiting in the wings he will need to do better. Actually, even if Don Rickles (may he rest in peace) were all that was waiting in the wings, he'd need to do better.

The interesting and sort of heart-warming line in the table is, naturally, Josh Papelbon's. I won't pull the announcer jinx on him like Orsillo did on Delcarmen yesterday (because Don is a tool), I'll just say that I like it. It seems like it's hard to know what you're going to get with a submariner (for reference see Bradford, Chad) but Josh can compete at this level, that's for sure.

More On Natale

Jeff Natale continues to be one of the more fascinating prospects in the system. Since his promotion to Wilmington his batting average has suffered (he's at around .250) but otherwise he is still pretty astounding at the plate. His OBP is still .417, he is walking 20% of the time, and his IsoD, at .169, is the best of any player in the entire organization, Red Sox included. His Secondary Average is .346, top five in the Sox minor league organization. One has to assume the BA and SLG will come around - it's almost like he's just studying high-A pitching right now. Anyway, somehow this kid has to work up enough defense to find a way into the lineup everyday as a position player. Really fun prospect to follow, regardless.

Red Sox Stats

I am plugging this site because it is sweet. It's as simple as that. Try http://www.redsoxstats.com. Not your average stats site.

Didn't See That One Coming

2006-07-23T21:55:00.000-07:00

What to say? Seattle came in hitting like their body parts were falling off during swings, and turned it right around, finishing with a .340 BA and a stunning .424 OBP as a team over the course of the series. The Sox for their part hit .245, although they got on base per usual at .367. Seattle outslugged us .471 to .424. Essentially, looking at those numbers your first thought has to be "well, that explains how we dropped 2 of 3".

The thing is, if you left Friday afternoon at 5pm to fly around the world and came back to find out the Sox dropped two of three, your first thought would probably be "Snyder and the rookie dropped the ball". But of course, nothing could be further from the truth, unless you said "Tito would never prefer Gabe Kapler's bat to Wily Mo's". .

Both Snyder and Gabbard held up well, making the Mariners look like, well, the Mariners - a mediocre offensive team that can be controlled. Certainly, they did not dominate but they gave the team a chance to win, which the relief corps did not. So as not to harp on anyone in particular, since noone performed well in both games, I'll just point out that the collective ERA of the Sox relievers was 7.44 for the series, and then I'll comment that that blows dog. I would rather see Kyle Snyder on the mound every five days until the day they bury my pasty, bloated, seaweed-wrapped ass (I'm just guessing on that last part) than see Julian Tavarez take the mound ever again. I think I've actually said this before, and while sober.

The good part about tonight's game was that they kept fighting. Sort of like Randall "Tex" Cobb did against Larry Holmes. Okay, that metaphor has no real basis but Tex was in Raising Arizona, and I love that movie, and that is the real silver lining today.

It's hard to pinpoint where today's fiasco derailed. Obviously, in the final analysis, you hate to say things like "well, we got beat by Adrian Beltre, Eduardo Perez and Richie Sexson, what're you gonna do?" To me, Adrian Beltre's cartoonish inside-the-parker was just an unnecessary, insulting chapter in a game that disappointed me so many times I actually turned it off to go pull carpet staples from my recently unearthed hardwood floor. That's right; I turned to manual labor instead.

Tomorrow night I won't have that option as I'll be at the Oakland Coliseum watching the team live and wondering between innings how the hell any stadium could suck so badly. I hope I only have to wonder that about the stadium. Looking at the bright side, there's this: A's fans never go to games, and so there are always more rabid Sox fans there acting like monkeys and generally making a drunken nuisance of themselves. I enjoy this, and I think the team does too. Last year Mike Timlin orchestrated the removal of some poor drunken A's fan, an act performed while Timlin simply stood with his arms crossed on the dugout roof taunting the poor hick mercilessly. It was a work of art, and was extremely well received by Sox Nation west-coast.

Oh, yeah, that...

In AA ball today the Portland Sea Dogs were no-hit. Pitcher Miguel Pinango took a perfect game into the 9th when an error ruined it for him. Miguel is not the second coming of Nolan Ryan, so the Sea Dogs are probably not feeling real good about this (like they would if it were Nolan v.2). Still, as DLowe proved, some nights guys put it all together.

My point here is that as tough as the Sox loss was tonight, there were worse outings. It's not much, I know.

Lowell On The Block?

2006-07-21T09:11:00.000-07:00

Rumors are abounding that first-half favorite Mike Lowell is being shopped around for starting pitching. Initial rumors, as usual, focused on San Diego, although if they ever had any validity reports are that the talks are stalled, perhaps pending a third team's involvement (per Jayson Stark's ESPN chat). It's hard to know how much of this is just smoke thrown up to influence the Jays in dealing Hillenbrand, but one thing seems apparent: Lowell is in fact on the block.

I count myself one of the number of Lowell's fans. Largely, this is an emotional state where I like that Lowell bounced back from a career-worst year. He's a professional, a good clubhouse guy, a gold-glover at third, and has hit beyond anyone's expectations thus far. I think, just maybe, it's the "thus far", coupled with his $9Mil price tag, that has him being shopped.

Historically Lowell is not a good second-half player. In each of the years 2002-2004 his OPS dropped around 200 points after the All-Star break, which is kind of a collapse. Last year it actually improved, but that was because during the first half of the season he was possessed by Rondell White. His OPS this year dropped from .986 in May to .701 in June, so Theo and co. probably went "uh-oh" and are trying to sell reasonably high, since for July he's back up to .844 (despite being under .600 over the past week like nearly everyone else).

The feeling may be that the writing is on the wall for a poor second half. It's pretty hard to argue with the statistics - Mike has a career second hald OPS of maybe .750, and it's hard to justify paying a guy $9Mil a year for that (or I suppose, $4.5Mil). I am guessing the logic here is that you move Youks over to third, where his .750-.800 OPS will cost far less, and then go get Ryan Shealy using one of the blue-chippers. It's a stretch for me though. I'm not sure that I understand exactly how Lowell gets moved unless you are paying a ton of the freight, and I'm not sure that it makes the team better even if he falls off in the second half since the IF defense gets worse. I would say that I am dubious at best that the FO finalizes a trade I like with him in it.

Won't You Come Home Jeff Bailey, Won't You Come Home?

The other day I talked a little bit about almost-prospect Jeff Bailey. He has intrigued me a little bit, largely because he has no home in the organization, but keeps performing for Pawtucket. He does play a couple positions (mostly 1B and some catcher, looks like) but has DHed for the PawSox. As I noted before the guy can hit. The thing is, he's 27 years old.

It struck me that he reminded me of someone, and that someone was Brian "Cementhead" Daubach. Both guys bounced around a while then figured it out late. Dauber really figured it out at age 26, so he was ahead of Bailey, and his year in AAA was really immense, but Bailey is putting up some decent numbers. Who knows, maybe he can find his way into the bigs yet. Christ, he has to hit better than Doug Miagentsfhhcytucoz, right?

At least, Tito thinks so: ''What Jeff Bailey is," Francona said, ''is a guy I think can hit. I think Jeff Bailey can hit good pitching. I don't want to see him get lost in the shuffle because of what he went through as a catcher. He can hit."

He probably won't hit for the Sox, barring some really bizarre circumstances, but hopefully he'll hit somewhere. Good luck Jeff.

Winning....somehow

2006-07-20T20:48:00.000-07:00

The Sox just keep getting it done this week, although they are going to have a tough time of it in Seattle. Snyder pitches tomorrow, which obviously doesn't give one a warm, fuzzy feeling, and Saturday and Sunday they face King Felix and Jarrod Washburn.

Felix has not been lights out in his last few outings, and his season ERA is near five, but he excellent control, misses bats, and as we know the Sox have a history of, ahh, struggling against guys the first time they face them. To add a little flavor to the game it appears that AA Seadogs starter Kason Gabbard will be called up to pitch since Timmeh's rib injury landed him on the DL. This will be a fun game to watch.

Washburn has an ERA of 1.86 in his last three starts, and held the Spanks to just a single run in 6 innings in his last outing. He'll be going against Lester whom as we know is coming of an impressive start against KC.

Seattle, blessedly, is hitting for shit in July, so that gives one hope. They have a team OPS of .661, which is just brutal. Ichiro is basically the only guy on that team to fear, although Betancourt is a promising young IF.

Speaking of hitting for shit, check out these impressive stats, representing the past 30 days:

The words "not good" spring to mind don't they? The K/BB rate is what immeditately jumps out at you, and is plenty troubling. Youks having an OBP under .300 is obviously pretty crappy, and having Crisp, at .307, as your other option to lead off essentially means you're fucked. Papa Jack has some work to do, looks like.

Minor Movement

Down on the farm there was some juggling, as hot bat Aaron Bates was promoted from Lowell to Greenville. Bryce Cox, who has been in pro ball about 4 minutes, was promoted to Wilmington, in spite of not really impressing in a couple outings (1.41 WHIP). He appears to be on the fast track due to his filthy stuff. It's a curious move, I'll be interested to see how he adapts. Lastly (of note anyway) SS Manny Arambarris was promoted to Lowell from the GCL where he was hitting .333 with no pop (.427 SLG). He's a corner IF now so really needs to show some pop to stay there, but at 21 he has a chance to fill out and grow power, I suppose. I'll follow his progress, mostly because I enjoy saying "Arambarris".

Welcome to Boston, KC Royals!

2006-07-18T20:47:00.000-07:00

Realistically, a couple wins against Kansas City shouldn't do too much to erase the memory of the Sox being outplayed on nearly every level for 3 of the 4 Oakland games, but it's hard to bitch after Lester and Papelbon combine for a one-hitter. Sure, the Sox bats remained meek, allowing Brandon Duckworth his best outing of the season by far, but I'm content to focus on the positives. It's a win, a great outing by the productively wild Lester, and I saw neither Seanez nor The Jeep. If I were to write a movie script about the game I would entitle it "The Night Without An Anti-Christ". It would be a feel-good comedy, and Jon Lester would be played by Brandon Routh, still wearing the Superman costume.

Right now, we all know where the Sox are. Hanging onto first place in the AL East by a fingernail, down to three starters, and scuffling at the plate. If they were my college rugby team, the clubhouse would have a prominently displayed giant handwritten sign that reads "Sack Up". The sign would most likely have little pieces of hurl on it, but the message would be undiluted.

The short story is these guys simply have to tough it out. There are no deadline deals in today's MLB. There are nearly 20 teams out there with a shot at the playoffs, and the teams who are out of it will be charging a king's ransom for an impact player. Carlos Zambrano is not walking through that door, people.

However, shockingly, there is still a chance Fatty McFatFat will be back in the rotation soon. He is scheduled to throw a simulated game tomorrow, barring a setback in his kitchen tonight, and I can't believe I'm writing this, but his chubby ass might indeed be the cavalry if he can approximate his numbers from last year. With Wake suffering from back problems, and Snyder and Johnson suffering from being Snyder and Johnson, Wells will be warmly welcomed back to the fold. Clement, not so much.

Meantime, the team has to continue to find ways to win. We can hope the Oakland debacle will serve as a reminder of the cost of sloppy, uninspired baseball, especially in light of the rematch next week. Until then we've got to get through some tough games against Texas and Seattle. My assumption is that the return of cartoonish utility man Wily Mo Pena Super Genius will prove to be just the tonic the team needs to catch fire again.

Minor League Notes

Like his fellow first-round pick David Murphy, Jacoby Ellsbury seems to be adjusting to the rarified air of his promotion without issue. Thus far Ellsbury is hitting .400 with 4 SBs in his first 25 ABs.

Murphy himself has improved in every offensive category since his promotion to AAA Pawtucket, and seems determined to shake his projection as a fourth outfielder (although Chip Ambres says "hi"). Thus far in Pawtucket he has an OPS of over .900, but more importantly has cut his K/BB rate way down, walking 24 times to 34 Ks, versus 11/29 in AA.

Favored son Dustin Pedroia has fully recovered from his injury and after a slow start to the season is now htting above.300 and has an OBP of .384. The power is not great, as one might expect from a guy of his size, but he continues to impress with his batting eye, and has walked 35 times to just 24 strikeouts.

Interestingly the only comparable K/BB rate on the team belongs to Alex Machado who has walked 35 times to 27 Ks. When we talk about a lack of power, however, Machado's name comes up pretty quickly, as his SLG is .337.

The other name down in Pawtucket is the little discussed Jeff Bailey. Bailey is a pretty non-defensive 1B/DH, but he can hit. He strikes out 25% of the time, but given his .514 SLG and .383 OBP, it's perfectly acceptable. In fact, his numbers compare quite favorably to Roberto Petagine's 2005 AAA numbers, but he has the misfortune of being blocked by crowd favorite Youks instead of fat miscreant Millar. Essentially he's a back-up bat, and nothing more, but he's a good back-up bat.

The rookies are starting to flatten out down in Lowell and the GCL, I'll take a look at them again in a week or so. Also, there are a couple of possible signees still under construction (notably Giardino and Kalish), so hopefully something will work out there. I'll post as soon as I find anything out.

Red Sox Prove Murphy's Law (Again), Lose To A's

2006-07-14T11:19:00.000-07:00

Wow. Last night was a head-shaker, wasn't it? You have Lester, a guy who is going pretty well in spite of his bizarre on-again off-again relationship with the strike zone, versus Esteban Loioza, a guy who has a pretty steady relationship going with Suck. You have a two-run lead going into the 7th in spite of leaving eleven baserunners stranded through that time. Then it all unravels.

Stranding guys is not at all out of the ordinary for this team. Historically it's one of their strengths, and getting a lot of guys on base means you'll strand some guys. It's disappointing that as a team they're hitting just .266 with RISP thus far into the season, but what can you do?

However, two-run errors by Loretta are certainly surprising. Having Willie Harris, whose only reason for being is baserunning, picked off first with nobody out is a little unnerving. Allowing Ronald McDonald to steal his first base of the season in a one-run game sort of bothers one a bit, doesn't it? I mean, that is just sloppy baseball.

I'm going to chalk it up to rust after the break, but when you're playing the A's and you're looking at Loioza, Zito, Haren, Blanton you kind of need to beat Loioza, don't you? At least, you should try.

The bright spot in the game was Varitek: two hits, two BBs and an RBI. Outside of he and Ortiz, guys did not look sharp. Manny in particular was missing the exact pitches he wanted, which doesn't warm the heart. Still, it's one game.

Looking further afield, a growing concern in my mind is Youks' slump. He is 5 for 39 and hitting .128 in July, and looks to be moving his front foot all over the place before he swings. In this lineup he needs to do two things up top - get on base, and drive in runs. He is not driving the ball right now, and this is hurting us. He is still trying to get on base through the walk but pitchers aren't afraid to throw him strikes so it's more difficult. We know he's a student of hitting though; he'll come around.

Breslow Promoted

The Sox brought LHP Craig Breslow up for a cup of coffee today. Craig has been doing a good job in relief for the PawSox, and is 5-1 thus far. In 45IP he's got a 50/17 BB/K figure, and overall has pitched very consistently throughout the season. He doesn't have a significant split against lefties, except perhaps that he likes to walk them, so I'm not sure how he'll be used if it all. Still, I'm glad he's getting a chance; he's got some ability and he'll get his feet wet.

It should also be noted that Craig is a pointy-headed former Yale student who loves to talk bonds and valences in the dugout, which makes him a teammate and crowd favorite. He was selected for the IL All-Star team, and although he did not make an appearance, he was able to successfully impart an understanding of Van der Waal's Forces to Andy Marte by using as metaphor Andy's easily severed relationship with the Red Sox organization.

Barry "U.S" Bonds

2006-07-13T14:28:00.000-07:00

As a Red Sox fan living in San Francisco I have a somewhat unique perspective on the entire Barry Bonds fiasco so I am going to take ten minutes here and chip in. Not because I am not sick and tired of the entire affair, but because there is one particular aspect of it that is driving me crazy.

First off, let me be clear: I think Barry is a tool. He is a megalomanic, an enfant terrible, a deranged psychopath. Take your pick. Second, I think he knowingly used performance enhancing drugs. I think that because there is no other conclusion to come to unless you are willfully deceiving yourself. Third, I think when healthy Barry can hit a baseball, as well as anyone playing today.

So Barry will likely be indicted for perjury and/or tax evasion, and that's probably okay. In fact, in the grand scheme of things, it seems like that's a pretty decent deal for ol' Barry.

Here's the thing that bothers me. If one stipulates that my three points are true, and one agrees that Barry deserves his punishment, then how in hell is Jason Giambi getting a free pass? He absolutely qualifies for point #2, and that's the only one that's proscribed anywhere! This is the guy that kept the Bosox out of the 2003 World Series while at the very height of his PED abuse, and nobody says jack! He gained 40 pounds of muscle in three months, and nobody says jack! He is single-handedly keeping the Yankees in the AL East race, and nodoby says jack. I can only assume this is because of his heartfelt non-apology for using steroids.

Basically, Giambi IS Barry Bonds, except that he doesn't abrade the press. He doesn't qualify for point #1, and that seems to be getting him off the hook. So, logically, Barry is really being persecuted for being a douche, which, in a vacuum, I'm fine with. Unfortunately we are not in said vacuum.

Now, I'm glad that people are trying to clean up baseball, and certainly I cannot defend Barry Bonds, but I'll say this - the Giants are not going anywhere, with or without their 42-year old problem. If the Yankees somehow sneak into the playoffs because they were carried by a guy who is a paramount poster child for the abuse of performance-enhancing drugs, there should be a lot of pissed off fans in the town that gets bumped. I just hope it ain't us.

Sox with two new signees

2006-07-12T09:39:00.000-07:00

The Sox have signed Rice reliever Bryce Cox and Stephen F. Austin pitcher Brian Steinocher. Of the two, the Cox signing is significantly more significant, as my great uncle Chim-Chim used to say. Cox has been assigned to Lowell, but general speculation is that he will not remain there.

Cox has been described as a "success story for guys who have the yips" by John Manuel, in that at one point in time last season he simply could not find the strike zone, a la Ebby Calvin 'Nuke' LaLoosh. After his pitching coach adjusted his arm angle he became silly dominant, but due to the poor overall stats on the season, or a fear that the yips would return, he fell to the Sox in the third round, and may turn out to be one of the steals of the draft.

ESPN mentions him here and says "This year, there are a number of players who have the potential to make an immediate impact in the big leagues. Of players drafted this year, North Carolina ace Andrew Miller and Rice's Bryce Cox appear ready to make the jump. Miller, the sixth overall choice, has been a favorite of the scouts all season. Cox, who pitched 2.2 innings of relief against Miami today and came into the game throwing 97 mph, was selected in the third round by the Boston Red Sox."

Cox pitched for Rice in College World Series last year, and made three appearances. Here are the lines from those games:

Game One: 2 2/3 IP, 0 BB, 1K, 0R
Game Two: 2 2/3 IP, 0BB, 2K, 0R
Game Three: 4 2/3IP, 0BB, 6K, 0R

In the biggest games of his career he was lights out. That's a lot of usage for a young kid over the span of a week, so the Sox may be seeing how his arm is feeling by sending him to short-season ball, and they'll definitely coddle him a bit, but as long as the Anti-Christ Brothers are on the roster I think he will be one to watch.

Steinocher was a kid who basically threw a ton of innings at SFAU, put up an ERA of just over four and got no run support. It's hard to know these things but at this point one assumes he's filler, but at least he's living the dream.

Manny Being Meniscus?

The current dialogue is around Manny missing the ASG because (maybe) of a meniscus tear in his balky knee. If this is the case, or even if the knee feels like it's the case, people should cut the shit with Manny. Having been the recipient of a torn meniscus I can say that under no circumstances would I go play for a bunch of fucking Suits with no interest in baseball (the only people who actually get tickets to the game) so I could have the pleasure of waking the next day with my knee locked up. If Manny doesn't improve my guess is they'll get him an MRI then DL him when the Super Genius comes back. The surgery would only keep him out for a month or so and he'd be fresh for the stretch run.

In other injury news, David Wells remains hopelessly obese, and Matt Clement remains mysteriously broken. Both are expected to move quietly to the suburbs and golf.

Red Sox vs. White Sox: Chicago Dreaming

2006-07-11T10:51:00.000-07:00

Despite being brutalized by food poisoning the night before the flight I toughed it out and headed to Chicago this past weekend to enjoy the Sox in the city of the current World Champion White Sox. I went with two goals in mind. One, to watch the Sox play, and hopefully win, and two, to hurl insults at Ozzie Guillen until he charged the stands with a bat and started beating men, women and children to death indiscriminately until he reached my row. I achieved only goal number one, after my wily ticket shyster failed to come through with the third row seats I was promised. I had a great time, but I really had my heart set on being the straw that snapped Ozzie's fragile psyche.

The first thing you notice about some White Sox fans is that they are a bit like the geek Nouveau Riche here in the Bay Area. After years of punishment they're suddenly on top of the world, and they have no idea how to handle it. Unfortunately, in some cases their best guess seems to have been to act like Yankee fans, which makes for some uncomfortable conversations. This bad-apple subset by and large does not have much baseball knowledge. One guy said, in talking about how great it is to enjoy baseball for a world champion team, and I quote: "It's awesome sitting in the car on the way home listening to Podsednik hitting bombs". Granted, when Clement is pitching everybody has a chance, but still. There is no response to this statement that doesn't begin with the phrase "what is wrong with you?" I was unimpressed.

Nevertheless, by and large the people of Chicago are fantastic, and me and my Chitown-native friends had a blast. Especially watching the games Friday night and Saturday. Well, I had a blast; they got loaded and pretended it wasn't on.

After Lester's first couple of innings Friday night I was sure it was going to be the blowout we'd been keeping one eye open for - he had zero command of the strike zone. Zero. In fact, I've come around to thinking that he is so wild when he pitches that it is helping him. It's not like he's nibbling at the corners and hitters are waiting on one that misses just in their wheelhouse. He is missing by so much that when he throws a strike they are too stunned to hit it. By the time he settles in hitters haven't seen enough quality pitches to get a read on him, because in their first at-bat the ball was all over the place. Does this make sense? Not really, but it amuses me.

At any rate, Lester got the job done for 6 and MDC, Timlin and surprisingly Tavarez (trying to shake the Anti-Christ moniker) finished strong. The oddity of the game for me is that Brendan McCarthy, who pitched the 8th and part of the 9th for Chicago, gave up two dingers. This is the same Brendan McCarth who 3-hit the Sox last year. He was up in the zone this time, and it hurt him. I still think the kid has the stuff to be an impact pitcher if he stays healthy with his Ichabod Crane physique.

Saturday's day game, now referred to as the Burn Fest, was one of those wins where Red Sox fans were super-pissed for the first five innings, and White Sox fans were super-pissed the rest of the time. The watershed moment of the game of course was the Chisox failing to score with the bases loaded and nobody out in the 7th. Javier Lopez came in to K slugger Jim Thome and Hansen earned his socks by getting Konerko and Dye with some pretty sick pitches. This was good because it was Lopez who was traded to the Sox for David Riske, the same David Riske that took the loss for Chicago. This is one of those Muntz-ian "HAH-HAH!" moments we occasionally enjoy in life.

I missed Sunday's game while in the air (or most of it) but as everyone knows it turned into a very unnecessary 19-inning deathmatch featuring blown saves by both Papelbon and Timlin, and an eventual, predictable loss for Rudy "The Once and Former Anti-Christ" Seanez. Seanez is so unpredictable that you could use his ERA as an encryption key and feel pretty safe. On the more predictable side, Varitek went 0 for 8 in that game, bringing his two-game total in Chicago to 0-for-12. He was not singing "My Kind Of Town" on the flight home, methinks.

The Catcher position has become a bit of an issue for the Sox. Varitek is truly struggling at the plate. His numbers for the past week (small sample size, but these are shockingly bad):

AB	H	BB	K	OBP	OPS
28	3	2	12	0.167	0.488

No bueno. Naturally the strikeouts are the most appalling thing - he's striking out nearly 50% of the time. In fact, this line is positively Gorman Thomas-esque: feast or famine, and mostly famine.

Of his three hits, two were solo home runs, accounting for his two RBIs. One has to assume the guy is just gassed, but as grim as these numbers are, Tek has been in a consistent, prolonged, and pretty powerless slump for most of the season (see graph).

I'm not a professional scout, but to me it looks like his swing has just gotten insanely long, and slow. But then, it always looked a little like that. Perhaps he's just not seeing the ball well, or has suddenly aged 6 years.

On the other side of the bench we have the white spray-painted outline of Doug Mirabelli's corpse. Obviously, Dougie can't hit anything. On Saturday, apparently because he is an unconscionable tool, AJ Piersctgzinski was calling for Garcia to throw fastballs right down the gut how Dougie likes them, and Mirabelli was swinging right through them. He later singled up the middle off Riske just to piss GM Ken Williams and Ozzie Guillen off, and I respect that, but he is basically done. After the game Ozzie called him "fat, gay-looking, and a probably into tupperware", or something like that.

Also the thing with Dougie is the pitch-calling, if it can be called that. As I mentioned earlier, the reason Sox fans were pissed off through the first five innings (or maybe this was just me) was because Mirabelli was either making, or letting, Beckett throw almost nothing but fastballs for the first 5 innings. I mean nothing but fastballs. This may have been partly because it was a very hot day and Beckett is prone to blisters, but it was pretty tough to watch the White Sox sit dead-red on every pitch and get what they were looking for. He had pretty good location, but zero margin for error, especially since he didn't own the plate. For some bizarre reason they will not let him throw inside. If he is going to throw nothing but heat, there has to be some fear there. Plus, who knows, as a bonus one might get away and bean AJ Piersczhzynski.

All in all a good trip for me and the Sox, assuming noone has incurred a lasting ding from the marathon game. Going into the ASB with a couple games in the bag isn't a terrible place to be, even if you have no #5 starter, your catcher is aging faster than the average Drosophila melanogaster, and two of your bullpen relief have been called the Anti-Christ. In fact, it's good times.

Return to Red Sox Nation

2006-06-29T09:58:00.000-07:00

It began like this, at lunch, circa 1pm PST.... "This has gone on long enough. Maybe they'll lose tonight and I will be called to account as the jinx. So be it. One man can only give so much."

Since that beginning the Sox have won in spectacular fashion, twelve in a row. As I had already begun writing I will consider myself off the hook, jinx-wise. Thank you Schill, Papi, and of course Coco Crisp. If you have not seen The Catch, as it will be known for the rest of this season at least, go to mlb.com and check out the video highlights. Youngsters throughout Red Sox Nation will be out in their backyards tomorrow with their buddies, hoping to get that perfect toss so they can emulate their new favorite player, and old favorite cereal. Tonight's game was everything sport can be, and baseball in particular is at it's best: a multi-faceted contest with stories within stories, and to top it all off, a grand finale.

First off we have the pitching matchup of two of the mound's elder statesmen in Schilling versus a red-hot Tommy Glavine (sub-plot: Glavine is a Concord, Massachusetts native). Both showed why they are great; Glavine struggling with his command a little but pitching to contact brilliantly, and Schill looking a little like the power pitcher of yore, being aggressive and missing some bats (6 Ks). Glavine got his pitch count up a little high and left early, after five.

Next, we have the game within the game, as Crisp scores the go-ahead run in uncharacteristic fashion for the Sox. He bunts to get on, then steals second. AGon sac bunts him to third and he scores on a Youks sac fly. Those with more free time can check on this, but I'll wager that's the only run we score in that manner all season.

There is the sub-plot of two exciting rookies; the now-dominant closer Paps for the Sox, and the oddly-named and maybe a little nutty Lastings Milledge for the Mets. One assumes the day will come when they are on opposite sides of the All-Star diamond, but now the ride is still climbing, climbing. If Milledge keeps high-fiving the 'suits' in the box seats who don't know how to score games after he hits dingers, he could quickly become a fan favorite. Papelbon of course already is.

As counter-balance to the story of the two rookies, the Mets started Julio Franco today. Amazingly, after ruling Spain with an iron fist, Franco went on to play in the majors for 32 years. He is still catching up to the occasional fastball, and getting picked off. Good for him. Franco is one my favorite players, because he is so goddamn old that he's getting a pass on the whole performance-enhancing drugs thing. They're like "ah, leave him be, he'll be dead soon". Julio of course won't take this standing up, but he will take it wandering between second and short, wondering if he left the gas on.

Finally, we have the personal story, whereby my fantasy middle reliever Aaron Heilman comes in and takes the loss. This is why I always play my guys against the Sox: if they suck, I still like it. I am crafty.

No matter how you look at it tonight's game was a classic. Well worth the $3.75 to download from MLB.tv (no they don't give me money) and watch over and over again, while your wife makes annoying comments in the background, as if she hasn't seen every Friends episode 14 times. Ah, good times.

So...Twelve in a row. It seems like just a couple weeks ago I was wading through the nightmarish jungle of home buying, watching a Sox team that just wasn't putting it together, and writing that perhaps they weren't built to go deep this year after all. Caviat of course - they needed to replace Clement, who was clearly sucking the life out of every game he started, and causing me to hear angry voices in labrador-ese. Enter Jon Lester, who quite frankly has been better than I expected at this level. I wasn't sure he had the fire, but he looks like he has raised his game. Some guys do. Add Hansen and MDC as full-timers, and this club has an injection of energy and life. These guys have obviously put it together now, and this is as fun a ride as I've had since, oh, October 2004.

Going back a bit further, to the topic I started writing about....Last night was Pedro Martinez's not-so-long awaited, much-ballyhooed return to Fenway as a Met. There seemed to be a lot of debate over whether or not the Fenway Faithful would, or should, boo Pedro. This was a no-brainer. You cannot boo Pedro Martinez. Why not? Let's see:

He is the greatest pitcher to take the mound in a Red Sox uniform since Cy Young. Clemens will be greater, career-wise, but some of his Sox years were not his best. This can be debated, of course, but over my dead body will that fat horse's ass get more love than Petey.
He did not mail it in, ever (for reference on mailing it in, see Clemens, above).
He was entertaining, to the point of being insane (for reference, see Nelson the Good Luck Dwarf).
He considers boos to be just as good as cheers - at least we're paying attention to him.

That's the thing about Pedro; he doesn't care about anything except being on the mound, being the center of attention, and having his fans. His relationship with the FO soured because they weren't big enough Pedro fans, hence his angry description of them as "computer geeks". On the contrary though, his relationship to Sox fans will never sour, because of the heaping adulation we gave him during his tenure here. To Pedro, now, if you cheer for him, it's because you still love him, and if you boo him, it's because you are jealous he's gone, like a jilted lover. It's all good. So why not look back on all the tremendous performances he gave us, and cheer your lungs out for a slightly crazy primadonna who at least had the stuff to back it up?

Thankfully, that's exactly what Fenway did. It made me proud.

I should note here that Captain Cavechrist has some similar personality traits, and obviously was a great Sox player, and probably deserved a warmer welcome than he got. But he did two things that Pedro did not. One, he went to the Yankees. Two, he went to the Yankees scant months after stating categorically that could never play for the Yankees. That is considered bad form in polite company (although in drunken caveman company I suppose it's de rigeur).

At any rate, the Sox themselves were not quite so kind to our jheri-curled former ace, and slapped him around like a rented mule. I myself was hoping for Pedro to pitch well but lose, just for old times's sake. In the end though, I guess I'll take the rout.

Now, ome quick notes on the new guys, from the Small Sample Size Press:

Daniel Bard: Okay, he still isn't signed, but the kid pitched unbelievably in the College World Series, and was victimized by his inability to field his position and some truly retahded baserunning by his teammates. The only thing you need to know is this: he was hitting 98 MPH on the gun in the 8th inning of the game, and he threw nothing but fastballs after the 4th. That's right. Wow.

Zach Daeges: The left-handed hitter from Creighton showed up ready to play. He's hitting .300 in 30 ABs with 6 RBIs, and had his second game winning hit last night in the 12th inning. When you add to that the fact that his name is extremely awkward to spell or say, you've got to love this kid.

Aaron Bates: Another Spinner, Bates is getting on base at a .400 clip while hitting .346 to better Daeges. Amazingly, he's also struck out 9 times, a better than 25% rate. He's a tad too aggressive, but there seems to be little doubt that the kid can hit. And kill women in the shower. That's right - I'm going to beat that joke to death until he makes the Show. So suck it.

Travis Beazley: Beazley is looking very good on the mound thus far, giving up just 3 ER in 11 IP, and striking out 8. More importantly, his WHIP is 0.82. He's still waiting for a Win, of course, but he's doing it in style. It's true he was a D3 pitcher in college, but still, the kid struck out 108 guys in just 88 innings, and walked a mere 18 for a 6/1 K/BB ratio. He has some ability.

High-school pitcher Caleb Clay and JuCo shortstop Kris Negron signed this week, and reported to the GCL. Clay in particular seems to be worth watching, and I'll try to keep this site updated occasionally with his and some of the other young guns' progress.

Movin' On Up

2006-06-21T14:13:00.000-07:00

Yes, yet another double entendre! What are the odds.

This is a short post to apologize for the dearth of Sox-related mocking and pseudo-analysis but I am in the midst of moving house, and as everyone knows this process is death.

Today's news of course is the signing of Indians castoff Jason Johnson. Herald has a quick riff here. There are two things of note about Johnson, off the cuff. One, he is diabetic, which means he holds a special place in my heart as my sister is also diabetic and I have the utmost respect for people who deal with the condition. Two, he appears to have a bizarre groundball to flyball ratio this year - 2.53:1 according to fangraphs.com. That is generally a good thing. His HR/9 is right around 1.1 which is not AWFUL, so I guess I don't know how someone with those peripherals can get beaten up as much as he has in his last eight games (he's 1-7 with a 7.74 ERA).

Oh wait, maybe it's the nearly .350 BABIP opponents are enjoying against him. Granted, Cleveland's infield defense is not spectacular - Jhonny Peralta does look like he's hitting the buffet between innings - but either he's tremendously unlucky or guys are hitting the aforementioned ground balls so hard they are unplayable. I guess we'll see. Historically he looks like your run of the mill #5.

And, um, he's probably better than Snyder or Clement.

Bear with me while I move, and once the Sox lose and I cannot be blamed for jinxing them I'll return with even more caustic wit than ever. Or, failing that, the general rambling you've come to expect.

Sox Trade Riske For LOOGY

2006-06-15T11:56:00.000-07:00

It's true. Theo just traded David Riske for a giant ball of phlegm. Oh wait, no, that was an internet hoax. He traded Riske for Left-handed One-Out Guy Javier Lopez (MLB splits here).

There is some speculation that this is a knee-jerk reaction to The New and Improved Anti-Christ and Manny "Still Un-nicknamed" Delcarmen giving up grand slams to lefties in back-to-back games. There is some other speculation that they've been looking for a deal on a LOOGY for some time, and had been waiting for a reasonable deal to come along. It doesn't really matter. Riske has pitched about 9 innings this year, and it seemed like Tito didn't have much confidence in him. On the other hand, Tito seems to like same-same matchups late in the game, as we saw with unkillable psychopathic turncoat Mike Myers last year and the year before.

Despite rather unimpressive career numbers (although the lefty splits are fine) Vasquez is pitching quite well in AAA so far this year for the Charlotte Knights, with an ERA of 0.55, and 26 Ks to 6 BBs in 33 innings. Plus, just one dinger. At age 29 has he figured something out? Maybe, let's hope so, who's to say? I'm betting we'll find out soon enough as he appears to be arriving with the big club in Minnesota today.

My favorite thing about this trade thus far is that Baseball-Reference.com has listed as one of his (Vasquez's) historically similar pitchers 1950s beanpole Bunky Stewart. As if it weren't bad enough that he went by "Bunky" the guy was 6'0", 155 lbs! Apparently his career was cut short when a comebacker to the mound shattered his body into 17 pieces.

That's all the news for today, no new signings that I've seen. I did find out that Zach Daeges was an accounting major at Creighton and graduated with a 3.31 GPA, so it seems my assessment of him as too serious to mock was correct. Unfortunately for Zach, accounting majors are too freakish NOT to mock, so we are at a standoff that will probably end up leaning towards mock.

I would also like to plug the new forum at http://www.redsoxstatsguy.com (very good site). It's new and doesn't have a messageboard gestapo in place yet, so if you haven't been sharing in the online chatter due to fear of a beatdown by some loser, check this new forum out. Our beatdowns will be gentle and caring.

2006 Red Sox Draftee Update

2006-06-14T13:59:00.000-07:00

Red Sox Draftee Update:

Quick notes on the guys that have signed thus far (lotta help from Google and SOSH)...

#40: Kristofer Johnson, LHP, Wichita State

Again, he hates the Yankees. Should start in Lowell. Almost all the way back from Tommy John surgery, already hitting 93 on his fastball. Reputedly high ceiling.

#44: Caleb Clay, RHP, Cullman HS (ALA)

Probably heading to the Gulf Coast League if not extended spring training. Children of the Corn-esque name should strike fear into the hearts of opposing hitters

#71: Justin Masterson, RHP, San Diego State

When he's not keeping the wild west free of scoundrels, Masterson should be throwing 2-inning stints in Lowell soon. He's 6' 6" with a low-90s fastball and hard slider. Note: "At 6-6, 245 pounds, Masterson also is a presence on the mound. He had double-digit strikeout totals in several starts this season, and against TCU he retired 22 straight batters and took a one-hitter into the ninth inning." Expected to make the Bigs.

#83: Aaron Bates, 1B/C, NC State

Bates is a ready-to-play hitter who was listed as the #3 pure hitter in college. He won the Cape Cod HR Derby in 2005, so he brings some of the corner power the team has been criticized (by me, in some places) for lacking. Family owns a ramshackle motel chain.

#133: Jonathan Still, C, NC State [Lowell]

Winner of the 2006 MLB Draft Ironic Name Award. Catcher Still is known for his power, and his statuesque (read: monolithic) bearing. He is not fast. Nevertheless, reports are he can hit. SLG .495 at NC State.

#163: Dustin Richardson, LHP, Texas Tech

Another giant, the 6' 6" lefty can be dominant or lose his shit. He'll go to Lowell, but will he stay? The advice he was given by a Red Sox official was to "enjoy my time playing". That's some damn fine advice, should help him get guys out. Not a sure thing, apparently, but I'd say it's worth it to take a chance on a giant lefty who looks like Doph Lundgren. I look forward to these exchanges between Dustin and opposing batters:

Dustin: I must break you.
Batter: What?
Dustin: I must break you.
Batter: Dude, I'm wearing a helmet and you're like 100 feet away. I can't hear shit.

#193: Zach Daeges, 3B, Creighton

Daeges will go to Lowell and I would assume take over 3B. He should do well in rookie ball. It's speculated that he will be moved to the OF, but I guess not right away. He strikes me as too serious to mock.

#373: Ryan Khoury, SS, Utah

My current favorite draftee will go to Lowell where he will probably be moved to 2B, and will definitely be shocked by the awesome power of full-alcohol beer. Expect him to lead the league in Missed Groupie Chances as the beer dulls his senses and causes him to mistake the sexually aggressive shouting of Western Mass. women for anger.

#403: Jordan Craft, RHP, Dallas Baptist (CA)

The Craft will practice his dark magic in the GCL. He pitched relief for DB, so I would assume he'll do the same at Lowell. His 6' 3", 185 lb. frame is described as "projectible" which is a stupid term baseball people use to make themselves feel important. Really it means "might get bigger/better/stronger/bionic".

#703: Paul Smyth, OF, San Diego State

The latest signee will also start in Lowell, likely as a back-up OF. Smyth bears a disturbing resemblance to crazy person Tony Robbins (see?), but perhaps he can use that to motivate teammates during the tough times. On a more serious note, Smyth led SDSU in almost every offensive category, including smell.

#913: Donald Lawson, RHP, University of West Alabama

I'll be honest, I don't believe Donald Lawson exists. But if he does, he'll be in Lowell. Actually it appears he might go by the name "Ryne", which makes some sense, since Donald is a crappy name.

#973: Mike Chambers, 2B, Franklin Pierce

Mike is another big favorite here since he went to Franklin Pierce like my friend Mel's brother. Not only that, but he's already put a ball over the Monstah! We're all hoping he's this year's Natale. He'll have some trouble playing behind Khoury, but perhaps Khoury will get some games at SS and we'll see what Mike's got.

#1153: Travis Beazley, RHP, Randolph:Macon College [Lowell]

A two-way star at Macon College, Beazley was drafted as a pitcher after striking out 108 in 88 IP, and putting up an ERA of 1.94. He once struck out 17 in a single game. He also led the team in hitting, batting .378 for the season. Travis is an inspirational figure, too, having overcome a tough case of "Southern Mouth".

#1301: Jeff Vincent, OF, Niagara

Jeff began focusing on baseball in college after claiming an imaginary girlfriend in the "Niagara Falls vicinity" and getting busted since he was actually living there at the time. This proved to be a good move, as Jeff went on to put up some impressive numbers. Note: "The 2006 first-team All-Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference pick and MAAC All-Tournament selection hit .304 in his career with 177 hits, 125 runs, 35 doubles, 18 home runs and 117 RBIs. He holds school records for triples (12) and stolen bases (54)." Here he is practicing his patented 'awkward high five'. He'll go to Lowell and play OF as a back-up.

#1443: Josh Papelbon, RHP, North Florida

At this point Josh needs no introduction. A submarine-style pitcher who closed for North Florida, Josh doesn't have the velocity of his older brothers Jon and Jeremy, but led the family in "noogies" as well as "wedgies" and "swirlies". He was very effective in relief for NF. He held right-handed hitters to a .214 batting average in 41+ innings of work, walked just 14 hitters and allowed only two home runs. He had an 8.64/9 ratio, which is pretty solid, and had 24 saves. He's a longshot, for sure, but he's unorthodox, and a competitor.

That's all we have for now. There are a few more guys we should be signing soon, and a few more we might not (LaPorta, Anderson would be nice though). I'll try to keep this updated with new signings and mockery, so check back.

Newsdesk: Julian Tavarez Is The Anti-Christ

2006-06-13T21:03:00.000-07:00

I think we've all been eyeballing this moment for some time now. Julian Tavarez, heretofore known as The Jeep, has taken the mantle from Rudy Seanez. Tavarez is now the Anti-Christ, while Seanez is relegated to nickname purgatory, just another aging mediocre reliever we hope not to notice.

Seanez, who at the beginning of the season was so appallingly awful that I bled from eyes watching him pitch, has actually put together a 10-game stretch with an RA of 2.00 (although obviously he pimped Pauley for the Yankee loss in another game where the bats quit). Tavarez, on the other hand, has an RA of 7.36 in the same time frame, and causes the average Sox fan to self-mutilate each time he warms up. So, he is now the New and Improved Anti-Christ. See below:

The annoying thing about Tavarez's role in the debacle (and by role I mean "chief executor") is that given his craptacular performances over the past couple of weeks, wouldn't you have rather seen ANYONE ELSE on the mound to close out a one-run game? Seriously.

Looking back, there were two plateaus of knowledge in the bottom of the 12th tonight. The first occurred when The New and Improved Anti-Christ took the mound, and you knew the Sox had lost. The second occurred when he loaded the bases, and you knew the Sox had lost with great ignominy, via a rookie grand slam. This second plateau was infinitely more painful, watching and waiting for Kubel to hit it out. And there was no doubt in my mind that he would hit it out.

So, in the past 72 hours the Sox have lost a game to John "Way-Back" Wasdin (I can't decide, but I think this is less palatable; I mean at least Santana pitched tonight), and lost on a walk-off granny in a game during which they struck out 16 times. Statisticians who don't believe in the concept of "clutch" must be ecstatic right now - Manny and Papi combined for an 0-10 line with 6 Ks between them. Only Crisp's 0-6 with 2 Ks and 7 LOB compares.

The silver lining, again, was Schilling's simply massive performance on the mound for the Sox. He doesn't make batters look ridiculous like Santana can, but this was just him stepping up and saying "you know what, you guys can't hit this kid, fine - I'll keep you in it". Just amazing. he deserved better, but certainly Santana deserved the win too, so basically they're both in the same boat. Well, almost. Tomorrow Santana gets to say "at least we got the win", while Curt gets to say "I don't know what the hell is wrong with this team - they suck".

Right now, that is a very real problem. This team kind of sucks. It's getting painful, and it's unnecessary. There is more than enough talent in this lineup to score enough runs to win, even with their ofttimes terrible pitching staff. But they just don't do it. At some point Tito is going to have to kick these guys in the ass.

Regardless, unless a late-season youth movement is far more successful than anyone could predict, it appears this team just might not be prepared to go to the playoffs. New York refuses to give ground despite their injuries, Toronto is for real, Detroit and Chicago are obviously damn good, and really the Sox are a team that just doesn't win games they should. According to their expected win percentage they should be 33-29 right now instead of 36-27, and if that normalizes over the course of the year, they are looking at somewhere in the vicinity of 87 wins. That won't get it done, most likely.

Now, there is a ton of baseball left to be played, and truth be told the Red Sox teams of the past 4-5 years have limped into the All-Star break, including the 2004 team. So the sky is not exactly falling, but it's pretty safe to say there are some storm clouds on the horizon.

The fun part of the Olde Hometown Team going into a funk is all the wild imaginings about the younger guys down on the farm. Lester, Hansen, Pedroia, Murphy - at any moment one of them could ride in like young Jon Papelbon and save the day! And that would be great, and maybe it'll happen. Right now it's a sub-plot that's enjoyable to watch and on which we speculate over beers at the local watering hole. Pretty much just like everything else about baseball season.

I guess that's why even when your team loses on a rookie granny in the bottom of the 12th, with the Anti-Christ on the mound, you're still glad it's baseball season.

Couple Bites From The Sox Draft

2006-06-08T21:04:00.000-07:00

Blogger pimped me yesterday, but today we shall try again. Will I be able to recreate all my painstaking research? Probably not. But I'll make up for it with even more mockery than ever. I'm kidding of course, the mockery bar has been set so high that it cannot even be approached.

First a quick note on tonight's Sox hammering of the Yanks. It was way overdue. End of story. Well, not totally end of story. I just want to point out my favorite incident of the night, which was happy-go-lucky Coco Crisp going batshit in the dugout after grounding out with the bases jacked in the sixth. I was pretty surprised to see him get so fired up, but I am a bigger fan of his than I was before. His coming back to drive in two RBIs with two outs his next at-bat was huge, and I think that fire will serve this team well. I've been on Coco somewhat since his return because he's been finding his way a bit, but regardless of the slow restart, you have to love Coco. Coco is a ballplayer.

So, as promised, some quick hits from the Red Sox shopping day in the 2006 MLB Draft. It should go without saying that I will avoid talking about first rounders Bard and Place: that's why you have the Globe.

The next two picks are far more interesting to me anyway: pitchers Kris Johnon at #40, a lefty, and Caleb Clay at #44, a righ-hander (we got a lot of those).

Johnson is intriguing because he a) hates the Yankees and b) is not media-savvy. Just about his first quote after being drafted? "Hopefully, maybe someday I'll get to Fenway (Park) and pitch against that evil empire of the baseball world known as the Yankees," he said Tuesday outside Eck Stadium. "I've never really liked the Yankees. Not one bit. The whole money deal -- they just go out and buy All-Stars every day. That's not how baseball should be done. This just couldn't get any better right now." Haha! He already has Schilling's charm, now if he pitches half as well he'll be a fan favorite. The article is here.

Clay is a big position player turned pitcher, and has shown a great work ethic. Good article on that here. The short version is the kid is new to pitching with a fresh arm, works hard, and throws 94 mph. Bueno. His high school coach seemed to take a real shine to the kid too..."Caleb is as good a high school talent as I've seen," Bowen said. "His raw skill, his ability to hit, throw, run and of course pitch. He has all that athleticism and I think he'll go high in the draft. Three or four years from now, if it's his goal and it's something he wants to do, he has a good shot at being in the big leagues." Caleb Clay is a big league name, so here's hoping he gets it done.

Jumping up to pick #193 we grabbed one of our few positional players in Zachary Daeges, a 3B from Creighton. Daeges improved at the plate steadily throught his playing years and his senior year was something to write home about. An average of .350, OPS of 1.053 and 61 RBIs in just 214 ABs. That's pretty impressive folks. MLB has a scouting video of Daages, but this video of a single pure swing is better by far. The kid made You Tube! Like 5 times! I don't know what that means but I'm a little impressed.

Another prospect who made the internet on his own is Columnes JC Player of the Year Kris Negron - shortstop chosen at #223. He has a My Space page that he updated (he made it private after the draft; wonder why) immediately upon being drafted by the Sox with a giant Sox logo. He also refers to himself on the page by a term I assume people call him at school, "That One Brown Dude", which I thought showed a pretty healthy ability not to take himself too seriously. The kid can play some ball though - check it out. He is perhaps my favorite draftee.

My next favorite (or perhaps favorite, they're neck and neck) is another shortstop by the name of Ryan Khoury who we got at #373, the Utah Utes all-time hits leader. He is basically Dustin Pedroia, at least thats the impression he gives when he says "I've always been a small little runt kid that's running around out there trying to figure out ways to get stuff done". This is the article, and Khoury has put up some pretty impressive stats as you can see. I look forward to he and Negron battling it out in rookie ball. Good times.

Last for today is high-schooler Devin Foreman of Hales Franciscan, pick #883. Good Sun-Times article on him here. The highlight is this quote: "The way he hit the ball just stopped traffic," Thornton said. "The sound of the ball coming off his bat was just unbelievable." I haven't been able to figure out his signability, but it's easy to get excited about a kid when you read things like that. Especially at pick 883.

Next blog I'll try to take a look at some of the stretch signings, and we can follow the negotiations. The ones that got away can leave a mark of course (see Pedro Alvarez who escaped us laast year, and who is going to just be a beast), so we should identify them now to maximize our future angst.

Red Sox Draft Notes - Part One

2006-06-06T21:24:00.000-07:00

Most people, normal people, don't even know when the MLB amateur draft is. Disturbed people like me watch MLB draft tracker whenever the opportunity arises during the day, then recap it at night. Why? To some degree because Jason Schmidt is so unhittable right now that I don't have to really pay attention to the Giants, my adopted west coast team. To a larger, more accurate degree, because following the kids up the ladder is infinitely more satisfying than watching the big league club drop should-win games to lacklustre teams.

The amateur draft is one of the great crap shoots. First you gotta navigate "signability" which is an amalgam of the kid's willingess to sign a contract within reason (versus for example going to college or having Scott "Satan" Boras as an 'advisor') and Selig's office's determination of what the slot's bonus money should be for his draft position. Occasionally Bud will give you a ring if you're looking to overpay, and will whine. Good overview of how this last part plays out here. Next, the kid has to have a true major league ceiling. Most won't make it. Lastly, especially for pitchers, they have to stay healthy. I tend to believe this gambling element is what makes it so much fun. They're all underdogs.

Anyway, a quick recap of the Sox picks today with a great heaving sigh of thanks to The Boomer over at SOSH for doing the keystrokes for us:

(1st) 27. Jason Place -47
(1st) 28. Daniel Bard -15
(supp) 40. Kris Johnson -45
(supp) 44. Caleb Clay -90
(2nd) 71. Justin Masterson -24
(3rd) 83. Aaron Bates - 99
(3rd) 103. Bryce Cox
(4th) 133. Jon Still
(5th) 163. Dustin Richardson
(6th) 193. Zach Daeges
(7th) 223. Kris Negron
(8th) 253. Rafael Cabreja
(9th) 283. Ryan Kalish -95
(10th) 313. Kyle Snyder
(11th) 343. Brandon Belt -67
(12th) 373. Ryan Khoury
(13th) 403. Jordan Craft -119
(14th) 433. Matt LaPorta -38
(15th) 463. Jorge Jimenez
(16th) 493. Ty Weeden
(17th) 523. William Reddick
(18th) 553. Lars Anderson -41

The numbers adjacent to the names indicate their Baseball America ranking. These rankings are much-debated from what I've seen, but nevertheless, the Sox have 10 guys in the top 100 here. That's good. When you see a guy go in the 18th round but he was ranked #41, it's a pretty good indicator there is a signability issue - this is the case with Lars Anderson, a well-liked high school bat. Ditto with LaPorta at overall pick #433. These are guys that most teams feel they won't be able to sign, so they fall to the uber-rich teams who can afford to take fliers on them, like the Sox. Still, in most cases these guys will be elsewhere than rookie or A-ball next year.

There are a lot of interesting draftees to look at, and I'll cover a few of the ones that interested me tomorrow or the next day. Meanwhile, take a look at the MLB Draft Tracker and enjoy! You can go to the Teams tab and select the Red Sox via their icon links and get a good listing and some commentary on each pick. Good times for the whole family.

Steinbrenner Calls In Favor From Anti-Christ

2006-06-06T21:04:00.000-07:00

Well, I think we all learned a valuable lesson tonight - the two wrongs don't make a right lesson I've been ducking all these years. I thought perhaps that on 6.6.06 The Anti-Christ might be able to use his powers for good, but this was not the case. Rudy Seanez was seen talking to an elderly horned gentleman who smelled of bryl-cream and tapioca and was sporting an oudated turtleneck, and shortly thereafter he coughed up the ballgame by walking famed cheater Jason "HGH" Giambi.

Say what you will about DJ Juicy G, but he's got the best eye in baseball. The Anti-Christ kind of needed to throw strikes there. Of course, if in fact the conspiracy theory is accurate, maybe he didn't. So hard to know the inner workings of the anti-christ.

All we Sox fans know is there goes another disheartening loss against a team that we know in our hearts and minds is inferior. When will it stop? I honestly can't say. I keep waiting for this team to show some sack, and it keeps chucking me. This might be a simple mid-season identity crisis, though. We could still be waiting for the right catalyst to energize this new group of Bosox. The Arod bitch-slap has been used, but it's a classic, so who knows?

I'll briefly address the most glaring incongruity we're seeing right now - Youks batting eighth while a mis-firing Crisp hits leadoff. Tito likes to go optimist, but Crisp just isn't seeing the ball that well right now and the added pressure doesn't seem to be helping. Given that he's a reasonable guy and a team player, I think you have to look at moving Coco down in the lineup. Youks has earned the right to hit up top: until he loses that right it seems the smart move is to keep him there and let Crisp work his way back into hitting shape.

Coming soon: Some Red Sox draft notes from a pretty good day.

Yankee Farm Team Crushes Red Sox Ace

2006-06-06T09:06:00.001-07:00

If I actually wrote a newspaper column that would be my headline. Only the good lord, and maybe Dave Wallace, know what the hell is wrong with Josh Beckett, but when you have his stuff and you give up a home run to Andy "I Must Swing As Hard As I Can At Every Pitch Or I'm Not Satisfied" Phillips, you are 'teh suck'.

Every Yankee and sub-Yankee got a hit last night. This list includes the aforementioned Phillips but also such superstars as Miguel Cairo, Melky Cabrera, and the taxidermied body of Bernie Williams, operated by strings from the mezzanine. Almost all of these hits occurred before the 4th inning no less - the tin lining is that Riske, the Jeep, and MDC only allowed three hits between them.

Beckett sucking is pretty tough but last night's loss is a killer in a lot of ways beyond that.

First off, we had a perfect opportunity to put a shiv in the side of our arch-rivals last night. Ace on the mound, Mussina not looking great this year, and the Yankees trotting out as crappy a team as we've seen in the Bronx in a decade. Even Captain Intangibles, "Brokeback" Jeter was out. The Sox should have been the ones pounding on the Spanks, not the other way around. They just haven't shown the killer instinct yet this year, and it's troubling.

Then, the 'pen. Van Buren, who has actually pitched pretty well when not utterly pimped as he was last night, is now done, and will probably be sent down. We also blew through three other relievers the night before our AA stalwart Dave Pauley has to take the mound for his first trip to the Toilet. I'm thinking this means the call-up to replace Van Buren will need to be capable of throwing a few innings, but it terrifies me to think of Alvarez pitching to the Spanks. Maybe we will see Breslow or Hertzler, who have both pitched well. Still, no matter how you slice it, Wednesday's game does not shape up well on the pitching front. Foulke and Papelbon are available, if we get that far.

Next: Ortiz and Varitek continue to struggle and the hits aren't coming in bursts for the team as a whole. Papi is now hitting .257 for the season, and looks positively disgruntled at the plate. I don't know how else to describe it. As much as he's walking already, I tend to think he is perhaps too eager to swing, to get in the game. Varitek hit into two murderous double-plays last night, and then got shamie-shamed by Mirabelli who went yard! Overall, we saw a lot of tentative at-bats last night. Mussina was not throwing hard, was missing spots, and guys were not hitting pitches they should have - in short, an exact replica of the Sox' last game against Moose. For some reason, hitters seem to give him credit for being better than he now is, and guys are not teeing off on his just-better-than-mediocre stuff the way they should.

You have to believe this team is playing hard, and we know this team wants to win. The pitching is suspect, and there have been some unfortunate injuries, but the Sox have got to beat a poor Yankee team like the one that suited up last night. They have to. Tonight's game is going to be an uphill battle, as Pauley will undoubtedly struggle, and the Sox don't tend to score bunches of runs against Wang (he just bought some property at the Great Wall of China - on the good side), but somehow they need to find a way to get it done.

Here's what I'm thinking: today is 6/6/06. If there were ever a night Rudy Seanez, here known as the Anti-Christ, should be strong, tonight is the night. If push comes to shove, and he has to cause Yankee batters to burst into flame, so be it. We need the win.

Dave Pauley, okay!

2006-06-01T09:47:00.000-07:00

The stat line wasn't impressive, but you have to feel pretty good about Pauley's start last night. He got in and out of trouble a couple times, and had some trouble throwing strikes, but a lot of it was nerves. Even the terrible final inning could have been avoided if Loretta doesn't bobble the double-play ball, and Manny makes any kind of attempt to catch the pop fly ball. All things being equal, for a kid to make the jump from AA and pitch against a Jays lineup that is impressive even without Red Sox cannibal Vern Wells, and keep the team in the game for 5 innings - shit, I'll take that. I'd rather have Pauley on the mound instead of Clement anyday.

The big story of last night: Dougie Mirabelli gets a hit! An extra base hit, no less. Since the "big" trade, Doug Mirabelli was hitting .130 with one extra-base hit and 2 RBIs (now .167 with two XBHs!). His slugging percentage was .174. He is still striking out 25% of the time. In short, he is the just about the worst hitter in all of MLB, with only Edgardo Alfonso and maybe Rondell White keeping him from the distinction.

Josh Bard in 46 ABs in a pitchers park has 5 HRs, 15 RBIs, and is hitting .391 with a slugging pct. of .826 (that's an OPS over 1.200). What the...?

Defensively, Josh Bard with one month's prior experience with Wakefield (53 innings, mostly Timmeh) had 10 passed balls and had to be traded. In his 46 innings (of which about a dozen were not Timmeh) Dougie has 4 passed balls, in spite of two full years catching Wake. Essentially, Dougie is about 2 passed balls better. I hope those 2 PBs have saved about 3 wins so far...cuz.....ummm....yeah.

Oh, I forgot - we also gave SD a decent relief prospect in Cla Meredith, because Mirabelli was worth it. I was all for fixing the Bard defensive issue at the time of the trade, and lord knows I wasn't too high on Bard when we got him, but this is not working out too well so far. Perhaps everyone should have been more patient?

Obviously Bard cannot keep up his hitting, but Dougie needs to get nearly 2X better to prevent this from becoming a pretty lopsided deal. We have no decent young catchers in the system either, which makes it worse, given that with Dougie's fitness/fatness level he won't last long in the bigs period. I guess on the bright side Cincy has three back-up catchers, and they must be looking forward to doing another deal with us, so there's that.

Further good news! Wily Mo is out for 6-8 weeks, and will be at less than 100% for the remainder of the year if Big Papi is to believed. Ugh. That just sucks. The Craig Wilson Brigade on SOSh is already clamoring for the acquisition of the big lug, and I have to say, it makes some sense.

These are the dog days, no doubt about it. For today I am just going to ride the win.

Note: Off to New Orleans for a wedding, so if this ends up being my last post, it's been real.

Houston, We Have A Problem

2006-05-30T20:17:00.000-07:00

For one, you appear to be stealing our #1 starter for the rest of the season. But that's not really what I mean. Today was an absolutely horrific day for the Boston Red Sox franchise, at nearly every level.

The Red Sox themselves, as everyone must know by now, were brutalized by the Jays, proving once again that they cannot hit purely mediocre lefty Gustavo Chacin. As it turns out, they really just can't hit lefties period, as the team's season average against them was at .253 going into the game, and no doubt got worse.

Vernon Wells on the other hand proved once again that if he could hit against the Sox every day of the week he would be the greatest hitter of all time bar none, and people would be saying "Barry Who?". Vern connected for 3 HRs on three awful pitches, and now has 8 dingers against the Sox for the season. He has 7 against everyone else.

If I were still paying for cellular phone time by the minute and somebody asked me what happened in this game, I'd say "Beckett couldn't hit his spots, the Sox couldn't hit Chacin, and Vernon Wells couldn't NOT hit a dinger". That pretty much sums it up. Right now, Toronto is simply a better team than the Sox.

The loss, painful as it is to a division rival, was made even more painful by the fact that Todd Jones coughed up an extra-inning loss to the MFYs by throwing DJ Juicy G a hanging curveball that he spasmed into the right-field stands. Not good, not good on any count.

So, after suffering the agony of defeat I tried to ease my pain by seeing how our young proteges in the minors had fared. This was not as soothing as I had hoped, although there were certainly more positives to take away than there were from the big-league club.

Pawtucket lost 3-2 but got three strong pitching performances from Jimmy Serrano (has yet to mention Jobu), Barry Hertzler who took the loss on an unearned run, and LH reliever Craig Breslow. Serrano's season ERA dipped down to 3.05, and while he doesn't miss a lot of bats he might have some value to someone. Hertzler was recently promoted from Portland (AA) where he had a 1.05 ERA, and seems to have transitioned well in his first two games. Breslow struck out the side, and has been getting a lot of Ks in recent outings. I'm thinking he is probably the next logical relief call-up if the 'pen continues to crumble.

Obviously in a 3-2 game the bats weren't exactly lively, Stern the biggest offender with an 0-5 collar. He is not hitting, which makes me sad since I am high on him. However, recently promoted David Murphy had two hits including a double and also walked, and Pedroia also had two hits.

In Portland things get a little depressing. Phil Seibel provides the happy place, pitching 5 one-hit innings. Phil has been pretty damn good. In 50 A and AA innings coming into tonight his ERA is well under two, and he has struck out 46 while only walking nine. Phil doesn't get a lot of press but so far I am liking his style. So the Seadogs headed into the 9th up 5-1 and all hell broke loose. Big Edgar Martinez, a hard-throwing converted catcher who appears to be in the midst of his first confidence crisis gave up 5 runs without getting a single guy out. The Sea Dogs end up losing in crushing fashion 7-5.

Way down in Greenville, the story sounds familiar with rookie starter Clay Bucholz doing fair job keeping them in the gme before embattled reliever JT Zink came in and got shellacked, giving up 6 runs in one and third. Amazingly, Matt Hancock came in and gave up another three in the same timeframe, walking SIX. They ended up losing 12-9.

Wilmington provides the sole win in the organization today, defeating Kinston 9-2 behing a solid Luis Mendoza start. Mendoza has looked pretty good. Taylor Sturge finished the game off an lowered his season ERA to 1.52 with Wilmington. CF speedster Jacoby Ellsbury had two hits and a stolen base, and continues to make the case for promotion.

By the way, Minor League Baseball's web site is pretty comprehensive, and also lists the games that are internet broadcast for audio in case you're bored one afternoon at work. Try it sometime, it's good times. If the Sox keep playing like they have the past couple games it could be the best part of the baseball season.

White-knuckle flight

2006-05-30T10:04:00.000-07:00

Well, what were we expecting, I mean really? After all is said and done, these are still the Boston Red Sox. Bizarre downturns are to be expected. Head-scratching losses are to be expected. Abysmal, coronary-inducing relief performances are to be expected. Ladies and gentleman, we are about to enter what I like to call The Dark Times.

Every year it happens, although this year could be pretty damn terrible. The Sox start losing a few games they should win, confidence gets a little shaky, then somebody or 4 people hit the DL, and it's time for the team to gut it out for a few weeks until they can right the ship. Let's see what we're up against at this point.

$9 Million per year #4 starter Matt Clement has gone batshit. Opposing hitters are going up there with this strategy: "stand there until he walks you - it should only take 4 pitches - but if he gives you that meatball down the gut, kill it". There is no easy solution here, even via trade. Either Clement figures it out or we are going to be seeing some pretty creative rotation managing.
Morbidly obese #5 starter Fatty McFatFat is also hurt after getting nailed by a line drive off the leg, hit by AAAA player Nick Green (just to add insult to injury). The downside here is that he was pitching very effectively at the time, and we don't know the extent of the injury yet. He could be out for some time. The upside is that the shock of his corpulent mass hitting the earth didn't shake down the new construction at Fenway. Best case scenario, and one that this season relies pretty heavily on, is that he medicates himself with beer and comes back strong.
The Jeep, Risky Dave and the Anti-Christ are all over the place. They need to figure out if they suck or are decent, and be that. The inconsistency is making Tito's job very difficult and is causing me to engage in homicidal thoughts that frighten my wife. (note: for new readers - hahaha! right - Taverez is The Jeep, Seanez is the Anti-Christ, and you can probably figure out the last guy)
Ditto Keith Foulke, except he's not supposed to be decent, he's supposed to be money. His ability to completely shit the bed is one of the biggest issues we have going on right now. On top of that, he's a dick. But whatever; he can be a dick if he doesn't pitch like Rolando Arrojo.
Mike Timlin is injured, although it doesn't appear to be serious. Still, Mike is 62 years old, and probably won't heal as fast as he used to. Also, if he is unwise and convinces Tito to let him go hunting while he rehabs, there is an excellent chance he could be shot in the face by a member of the White House cabinet.
Wily Mo Pena Super Genius is injured. While Manny is healthy this is more of an entertainment concern than anything else, but still, that counts - it's just fun to watch Wily Mo strike out and look puzzled in one at-bat, then single on a fluke grounder that gets stuck in the catcher's eyeball in the next at-bat and act like it's a perfectly normal occurrence .
We apparently managed to rejuvenate POS Randy Johnson in ESPN's Sucky Game of the Week last week. I guess the Sox just like the Yanks to feel good about themselves. That is the kind of warm fuzzy thinking that is great at the coffee shop and in traffic, but which pretty much blows in a pennant race. While the Sox are playing above their Pythag expected win percentage the Yanks are well below. The expected correction puts the Sox into second place by a fair bit.
Toronto is still pretty damn good. If we had to go into a three-way playoff with the MFYs and Toronto right now, I'd have to put even money on Toronto given their health.

Now, from looking at this list you might be thinking "Holy Crap! All is lost!!" and there is a good chance you could be right. But this is a good baseball team. Let's look at what the Sox have going for them:

Manny and Papi. Still the best 3-4 combination in baseball, and a delight to watch at the plate. Manny has been bothered by some dings, but he will need to step up now.
Mike Lowell's Lazarus impression. Who'd have thunk it? Of course his BABIP is well over .400 and that is pretty much impossible to maintain but still he has been a shining star. His glove at third has been impeccable also.
Coco Crisp is back. Like Wil Smith, Coco is a guy who can energize teammates, except apparently relief pitchers. I am predicting that once Coco hits his stride he is going to start winning games by himself, sometimes by rapping in center field.
Beckett and Schilling are winning games. Both pitchers are going out there with the mindset that they will win, and are not deviating from this focus. While they continue to control games the team will stay in the race.
Papelbon continues to be a revelation at closer. It's been said before but a good closer makes things easier on the rest of the staff. Correlatively, an Anti-Christ makes things harder on the rest of the staff - this is intuitive.
Youks and Loretta are really hitting well. The numbers are there, for sure, but they are each taking great at-bats, making pitchers work, and doing good things with mistake pitches. Clinical, professional hitters - fun to watch.
Defense! The Sox infield is great, and the team defense overall is the best in the bigs, at least in terms of error rates. It could be overrated, it could be underrated, but it's definitely a plus.
Everyone has to worry about injuries. Troy Glaus could shatter at any moment. Burnett might never make it back. The Unit is always one foaming tirade away from the DL. Sheffield might have an "accident" while in County Jail. It's all about staying in the race.

So. Basically, we're right back where we were on Opening Day. Lots of questions, lots of good things on the table, lots of baseball to be played. I don't know why I waste so much time looking at it, but I do. These are the Boston Red Sox, and they just sort of worm their way in there. Let's hope they do the same for the ALCS.

Teh Suck.

2006-05-24T18:14:00.000-07:00

Horrific, just a horrific couple of nights. Reminds you of old times doesn't it? A game that the Olde Towne Team should have easily won - a quick 2-0 lead against a creaky piece of shit, a hobbled Yankee lineup, home field advantage - goes inexplicably awry, almost as if the team is WILLING itself to lose, fueled by the almost impossible negativity and incompetence of Matt Clement. Ortiz's terrible 0-9 performance over the past two games has not helped, but let's talk about Clement here.

Let me be the first person to say I was wrong about Clement. I had hoped that the White Sox ALCS shellacking would be a watershed moment for Matt, that it would give him catharsis and he could start anew in 2006. I was wrong, oh, how I was wrong. Clement is a guy who is apparently cursed by what Poe described in the "Imp of the Perverse", a subconscious desire to make things worse for himself and those around him - to do wrong for wrong's sake. When he gets a bad call, he'll get wilder in ensuing pitches. If a guy gets a lucky hit on a good pitch, Clement will groove fastballs into the wheelhouse, as if giving Fate the finger (for reference see the at-bats of Williams and Long in the 4th tonight). In short, when Clement goes bad, he goes awful.

The question of course, is why the hell did Tito leave him in there? Once he starts to slide you pull him, if you care to win the game, and there are no games you can give to the Yankees, certainly not after you gift-wrapped them a game the very night before. That is exactly how teams start to slide, and it will be the true test of this team over the course of the next week. We'll see how they rebound from two embarrassing losses, where nothing went right.

If you're like me, and I pity you if this is the case, the thing that is bothering you about this game is the fact that once Clement collapsed you could feel that the Sox were not coming back. Bases-loaded, Papi at the plate, I never thought for a moment they would win this game.

Wily Mo Pena was so winded from the experience he was scared to take home plate after Farnsworth attempted to decapitate Loretta - probably thinking "this is going to bounce straight to Stinnet". AndI can't blame him. Psychologically it has got to be nearly impossible to get the equilibrium and focus you need to keep fighting back after watching a guy just go to pieces on the mound - again. If a guy has crappy stuff (hi Lenny) that night you just have to gut it out, but watching Clement mentally implode must take it out of everyone on the field. Their at-bats against the crappy Yankee relievers were just pathetic. The shots of the bench didn't look too hot either. Clement sucked the heart right out of that team.

Long story somewhat less long, Sybill has to go. He has good enough stuff to get you 10-12 wins against sub-.500 teams, and will throw the occasional surprise gem, but he cannot be a part of a playoff team. Like our beloved Nomah before him, his insanity casts a pall over every game he is in once things start to go wrong. The stat heads like to argue against "intangibles", and we all know there is a limit, but a baseball team needs to believe cohesively it can win any game, every game to go the distance. That's what I believe, and that's what every guy on the 2004 team will tell you.

I don't know if we can get anything for him, but I know this much - his time is short. If Wells come back strong and either Lester matures (a lot) or Clemens signs, I would expect to see a very one-sided deal made to be rid of his sorry, sorry ass. And I for one will be pleased. This team is good enough to go deep into the playoffs, but not with him in the rotation.

p.s. Please lord let me be wrong about him again. I promise I'll admit it even more quickly.

Some Minor League notes:

Every once in a while I will try to update "everyone" on various of our bright shining stars in the lower levels. There are some fun young guys to follow...

Jacoby Ellsbury: My favorite name in the minors, Ellsbury projects to be a Podsednik-style leadoff hitter/CF with speed to burn. Despite missing several games to injury Ellsbury is having a good season, hitting .329 with an OPS of .414, and 9 steals in 19 games. Today in his first at-bat Ellsbury singled, stole second, stole third and scored on the bad throw. He's a guy that can make things happen.

Dustin Pedroia: Everyone is waiting with bated breath for Pedroia to be ready for the bigs, and to prove he can play baseball. This is largely because Alex Gonzalez is a boil on the ass of the Red Sox offense, but also Pedroia is a dirt dog kind of player that will be loved in Boston. A bizarre shoulder injury caused him to miss all but the last few weeks, and he had a slow start afterwards, but he has been coming around as of late. A 3-for-3 day yesterday raised his average to .261 (down to .254 after 0-3 tonight), and he is still getting on base at a .356 clip. There are a lot of questions about DP's ceiling due to physical limitations, but most Sox fans would be happy to have him if he can approximate what he's done in the minors thus far.

John Lester: Everyone knows about the young left-hander. He struggled early in AAA this season but his last couple outings have been solid, and overall he's striking out a hitter per inning with decent control. My question about Lester pertains to his attitude - we know Paps has the killer instinct, but will John?

Chris Smith: Portland starter who is coming baclk from a labrum injury is throwing the ball very well, with a 2.01 ERA, 28 Ks and just 7 walks, although due to poor run support his record is just 3-3. He doesn't have a blazing fastball, but shows great control and has a repertoire of junk to pitch with. Abe Alvarez with better stuf.

David Murphy: Described by Sox Prospects as a "sweet swinging outfielder", Murphy thus far appears to be a streaky hitter who when he puts it together just catches fire. He started slow this year (again) but has done well lately. Showed what he can do in the Arizona fall League last year, but the question remains - does he become Trot Nixon, or Darren Bragg?

Tommy Hottovy: In Wilmington, Hottovy is duplicating Chris Smith's season, compiling a 4-3 record despite having a 2.17 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.00. Hottovy spent last season retooling his mechanics to throw more smoothly and preserve his arm, and while he struggled at that time, he seems to have found a rhythm now.

Jeff Natale: Another Shea favorite, the kid from Trinity just won't stop hitting. Sure, his fielding is suspect to some degree, but his batting stats thus far in 2006? An average of .336, an OBP of .475, and the kid is slugging .572 for an OPS of .1047. He's Ked 19 times and walked 34. I don't know how long they keep him down in Greenville (low-A) but I can't imagine it's long.

For the love of god.

2006-05-23T19:54:00.000-07:00

This is the boxscore from tonight's game - read it if you can. The LOB column is particularly disconcerting. This will go down as one of the great ignoble losses of the 2006 season, made particularly loathsome due to the unpalatable HR Bad Timmeh gave up to uber-douche Arod and, correspondingly bad, Big Papi's 0-4 collar.

This was just one of those games where everything went wrong. It happens. It hurts that it happened against a Yankee team that is pretty beat up and against a Yankee starter that no longer has any business being in the bigs, but there you have it. Tomorrow's another day, and we'll be looking at a nailbiter with Matt "Sybill" Clement facing off against the brittle, psychotic, disfigured hick Randy Johnson. That will be one I just might have to sneak out early to watch.

7 Little, 8 Little, 9 Little Bats That Suck...

2006-05-23T16:44:00.000-07:00

For tonight's "must-win" (in that in my mind all games against the Spanks are must-win) game against NY, the Sox trotted out Alex Cora, Doug Mirabelli, and Willie Harris to bat 7-8-9. I don't need to put a single stat down here for you to understand, thoroughly and completely, that you generally will not beat a quality team with those three albatrosses around your neck in the bottom third of the order. In fact, I bet you're thinking right now - if you haven't already turned on the game and said it out loud -"Sweet Jesus, is that all we have?!"

As it turns out, no. In spite of the fact that combined, they are not hitting over the Mendoza line, it could be worse. Alex Gonzalez could be hitting tonight, and then Cora's .242 wouldn't be there to lift the other guys up. I have always felt OK about having Cora in the lineup, but that was when I assumed he would be the worst bat in it! Mirabelli is done, he just can't hit anymore, but Willie Harris could never hit. Ever.

I joke about the Yankees having to trot Bernie out there in CF and Melky Cabrera out in RF but seriously, given a choice between Melky and Willie, I'm pretty damn sure I'd take Melky. Shit, Melky's hitting .306 and getting on base 1/3 of his at-bats. Willie is being diminutive. That's all he brings to the table, the fact that he lets me use the term "diminutive". That's it.

Meanwhile, it's the third inning and Bad Tim has knocked Good Tim unconscious and taken the reigns. The Sox are already down 3-0, Bad Tim is walking guys left and right and getting peppered by the GQ brothers Johnny and Jetes. Everything about the game is sucking, and I still have to look at Willie Harris's name on the lineup sheet. Wily Mo, heal thyself.

Now, nothing is over. If your team loses to Jaret Wright, they cannot call themselves a championship team, so there is still hope. Granted, they're playing crippled, but still, I have faith in Little Paper-Arm's ability to blow up. All I know for sure is that he won't do it in the bottom third of the order.

Note: I am lying my ass off in that last paragraph. There is no way this or any team can come back from three down with Dougie and Willie getting at-bats and Bad Timmeh on the mound. This check's been cashed. Turn on the Simpsons, pronto.

Sox far Sox good. Well, pretty good.

2006-05-15T10:21:00.000-07:00

I am thinking now is as good a time as any to take a moment and reflect on where we are in the American League. Nothing else is happening, that's for goddamn sure (when I started this beast the Sox had been rained out twice). On the plus side here in sunny California I can just read "PPD" on Yahoo! from my desk rather than hearing it on WEEI while I'm stuck in traffic with my windshield wipers firing back and forth across my road-rage filled car. Good times. (Before anyone starts bitching about the rain let me point out that it rained 19 days in a row here in March - that's right, 19)

AL EAST

The only statistic that counts shows the Sox in first place with a game on the malicious Yankees, at 23-14, for a .622 winning percentage. This is nothing to scoff at, as the AL East is a pretty tough decision to win in when you are playing the Yanks and Blue Jays every week. At present the Sox are 17-9 against their division rivals, which bodes well. Loretta is hitting very well again, and Gonzalez has raised his average 40 points in the last three weeks, so those are bright signs (although I am in no way implying that Seabass will not suck all year long). Offensively Varitek continues to struggle with a .717 OPS, and one has to wonder if the WBC was a great idea for an aging catcher, but I doubt very much that he's done. The Globe thinks perhaps he has begun rebounding.

Currently the most pressing issue the team faces offensively is deciding what to do with Crisp upon his return. With Youks sporting a .423 OBP (seriously, can we take a moment for Youks? He's getting on base 42% of his at-bats, it's unbelievable) it will be tough for Tito to make the decision to move him down in the lineup. Crisp's speed gives you some more options out there but he doesn't get on like Youks does, and while Loretta hits behind runners well, it's oftentimes just as good to have a guy sitting out there anywhere at all with Ortiz and Manny coming up. Francona's comments indicate that Crisp will bat leadoff though, so we'll see. The other head in this equation is Wily Mo Pena Super Genius who just might actually be a Super Genius. You hate to see WMP losing at-bats because he just does great things when he gets to play. He's getting nothing to hit, and is still striking out almost a third of the time, but is averaging better than an RBI every 5 at-bats, which puts him in Big Papi territory. Wily Mo is results-oriented.

Pitching continues to be solid with the exception of International Man of Annoying Mystery Matt Clement. It's possible that my prediction that Matt would have a career season jinxed him, but it's probably more likely that he's just crazy as a shithouse rat. This is a guy with absolutely no faith in his stuff. He is currently the single last person on earth you want on the mound in a must-win big game, and that, generally, is not what you're looking for in a $10Mil a year starter. Dinardo, despite a couple tough-looking scorelines, is pitching pretty well, and is absolutely a serviceable 5th starter at under $400k a year. I think Lenny has a good make-up and I think he's going to get better. So, if he now begins to suck, we can attribute it and Clement's suck to my jinx. Then we can call it the Shea Suck Jinx, and I can sell it on TV for people to use on their enemies.

Overall, the Sox look like what they are - a pretty well-built team with a core of solid veterans who know how to win ballgames. Their actual winning percentage is .622, but their Pythagorean predicted winning percentage (more or less Runs Scored squared over Runs Scored squared plus Runs Allowed squared) is a mere .569. There are a couple reasons for this. One is they are 6-3 in one-run games. The other is that they are not blowing teams out, so there is no padding in the run differential overall. So, really, I guess there is one reason for this - they're not winning by a lot. (Note: since writing this they annihilated Baltimore, when I began their pythag WP was .542 and actual was .600) We should feel good that they are capable of doing so - the White Sox were 35-19 in one-run games last season. Good teams win close ballgames.

They are also a pretty lucky team. I've talked a little bit about WPA (Win Probability Added) in this space before, and the graph here tells a pretty interesting story - namely that in terms of WPA the second-best player on the Red Sox is the other teams' crappy fielding. It's pretty hard to imagine that trend continuing at this level, but every good team knows how to take advantage of a break, and the Sox are a good baseball team. It helps that we do not give runs away - the Sox have only 12 errors as a team in 2006, and the next fewest is 18.

New York obviously caught a tough break with my fantasy left-fielder Matsui (see a trend?) breaking his wrist, but age is starting to catch up with this team too. Sheffield is on the DL with a knock, Johnson is looking a little creaky on the mound, and Posada is slower than ever. Mussina, Jeter, and Giambi's performance-enhancing drugs are carrying that team right now, and when they start to regress it could get tough for Spankee fans. One thing is certain - if you have a nearly $200 Mil payroll and Bubba Crosby and Melky Cabrera are starting games, something has definitely gone wrong. Given their vast resources don't be surprised to see a trade happen at some point, where they eat another bloated contract in exchange for one of their quality low minors prospects (of which there are a few) and loads of cash. Torii Hunter must be looking real good right about now.

Toronto hangs in there at only 2.5 games behind, despite Josh Towers going 1-7 in his first 8 games - a record that is not indicative of his quality as a pitcher. If Towers returns to some semblance of form, and Toronto keeps scoring runs at their AL East-leading rate, that one game margin probably goes away. If and when Burnett comes off the DL, there is more to worry about. The Jays are built to score runs, and if their pitchers are all healthy and pitching just to projected averages, that team is going to be very, very tough to beat. The AL East could very well be decided by teams' #4 and #5 starters, and Toronto matches up well there. On the other hand, they are located in Toronto, and that has to hurt you in some way.

Baltimore is, well, Baltimore. The more things change, the more things stay the same. Leo Mazzone has not turned around a pitching staff that continues to find ways to lose. Generally their plan is to give up more runs that they score, which they have done to excess. Their 239 Runs Against leads the majors. They were hitting the ball well, but have faltered offensively a bit too. Now, I suppose there is always the chance that they are just working through adjustments, and that the Mazzone factor will kick in and they will go on a tear, but I wouldn't run to Vegas with that idea just yet. At this point in time Daniel Cabrera has 43 Ks and 39 BBs - not usually indicative of a breakout season (he has since gone on the DL). If Miggy didn't want to be traded in the offseason, I bet he does now. Maybe he'll go play LF for the Yankees (shhhh!).

Finally, Tampa Bay. Ahh, the sweet smell of a team that lives just to be the spoiler. They don't score runs, they don't prevent runs. All they do is make unreasonable trade demands. They've given up 219 runs to put them just behind Baltimore in the Majors for letting opposing players cross the plate - wonder if having two closers with ERAs well over 6 could have contributed? They've scored just 163, due to having 5 regular or semi-regular players batting under .200 for the season, watching Joey Gathright hover at .208, and dealing with Rocco Baldelli's injured Whole Body. Looking at the team stats is an exercise in depression. On the plus side, their sure-fire, can't-miss prospect Delmon Young has been suspended for 50 games because he threw a bat at an umpire. Genius.

AL CENTRAL

The White Sox continue to tear it up, but Detroit, riding a maturing starting rotation and some power at the plate (tied for league-leading 56 HRs) , are only a half-game out in the Central.

The White Sox were a great team, and all they did was go add one the best sluggers in the game in Jim Thome. Now he is healthy, and he is killing the ball. Barring a spate of injuries, or the untimely decision to have Ozzie Guillen committed to an institution, this team goes the World Series again, end of story.

Detroit is an obvious surprise, in that they are doing so very well. It was clear that someday Bonderman and Robertson and Maroth would mature, but hard to say when. This year the Tigers team ERA is 3.27 and is the only Al team ERA under 4 - pretty impressive. Magglio Ordonez is on the field, which is a surprise unto itself, and he is on fire. Inge just keeps getting better, showing some pop this year to go with his increased plate discipline. And Curtis Granderson and Chris Shelton have emerged as future stars, at least in the early going. I think this team is for real, and they make the playoff picture all that much murkier. For my part, I am rooting for Detroit largely because they were Magnum PI's team of choice, and he was the greatest detective of this or any other era. Only Magnum got beat up every episode. That used to be the Tigers, but they're fighting back.

On the flip side of the coin is Cleveland. If you had told me that they would be under .500 and nearly 8 games out of first place at this point in the season I would have said you were crazy, and there would probably have been a swear in there. Yet that's what has happened, and this has occurred with Casey Blake having a career season that is now in Webster's next to "aberration". To some degree they don't deserve to be where they are - their Pythag winning percentage is .558, so they should be well above .500 strictly speaking in terms of run differential. But to another, more real degree, their starting pitching is just awful, and that's how you lose games. The Pythag is not a great predictor because teams like Cleveland can win games 15-1 and 15-3 with some regularity and it screws everything up. The thing is, if your team can score 15 runs in a game twice in a month, why can't they win more? These are tough questions.

Minnesota is another disappointment, just ask their beleaguered fans. How could it go so wrong? Their team ERA is 5.57. Santana is just 4-3. Radke is pitching batting practice out there, but both Lohse and Silva are worse with ERA's near 9. Their DH, acquired expressly to hit DH, is hitting .187 with an OPS of .420. FOUR-TWENTY!! There are enough good things happening, and enough good players on this team that we can't write them off completely, but the AL Central is a very difficult place to make a living these days, and their odds are not good. This is sad, because Twin Cities folk are good people and deserve better. Luckily, they have it, in the St. Paul Saints. Everybody wins at Saints games.

Let's not talk about Kansas City. Ok, a little bit. They are 2-18 on the road. If I were them I would seriously consider forfeiting all road games and just seeing if they could put all their money towards three great pitchers to win home games. I think their season would go better.

AL WEST

The West is looking pretty poor. To be honest, they look like shit.

Texas is in first place, and as we all know, Texas sucks. Case in point, just last night they blew a nine-run lead to the Yankees, and got beaten on a walk-off HR by no-talent Mr. Potato Head Jorge Posada. This game will serve two purposes. One, it will tell the Rangers and all the other teams in the division all they need to know about the Rangers. Two, and you would think there would be an inverse relationship between this and #1 but there isn't, it will add to the "Yankee mystique" that lets teams with no confidence choke away games to the Spankees and allow them to make the playoffs when they shouldn't. I'm talking to you, Oakland, Baltimore, Minnesota, Cleveland! Don't piss me off!

Short version, I don't expect Texas to be in first place for very long. Oakland's pitching is better than we have seen, although the Loioza signing was a mistake, and so is their offense. Dan Johnson is in a slump of truly apocalyptic proportions (dare I say Rondellian?) and Crosby isn't hitting yet, but they will. As they are a team that typically hits their stride in the summer, and they are a well-built team, I suspect we will see them atop the West in the next couple of weeks, now that they've gotten their roll-over for the Spanks out of the way. Moreover, As baseball television ads are the funniest ads on TV, so they get props for that.

The Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles are a bit of mystery, but it becomes slightly clearer when you realize they signed win-killing virus Jeff Weaver in the off-season. If he goes 3-4 instead of 1-6 they're just a couple games back. As it stands they're just a half-game in front of sad sacks Seattle, and their fans are wondering why in hell they're not parked on the freeway hating on each other instead. Of course those are the same fans who will claim to have been behind them the entire time when they're in the mix come August, because the team has too much talent to languish behind the goddamn Texas Rangers. In my mind, if you've got two decent starters and Vlad Guerrero, you can see the playoffs from anywhere in the AL West.

Also-rans Seattle are right on target to duplicate their .426 WP from last year. At least they're consistent. Young shortstop Yuniensky Betancourt is out-slugging both "Self-Nut-Punch Acquisition" Adrian Beltre and "Um, We Did It Again? Acquisition" Richie Sexson. Sexson by the way is below the Mendoza line. To be quite frank, neither of the two tools has an OPS over .600. Beltre has never seen a pitch he didn't like, and hasn't seen very many at all he can hit. At this point Mariners fans have only one reason to live, and that is to see King Felix reach his glorious potential, which we can assume he hasn't, sitting at 2-5 with a 5.71 ERA. For myself, I live to see Ichiro turn down a trade to the Yankees in about two weeks. But deep down I fear Shemp will convince him it's the right thing to do and then I will have to hate him. This makes me sad.

That's all for now - back to thanking Jesus that he invented the Baltimore Orioles and ruminating on what Wily Mo should call himself when he decides to become a superhero.

Here comes the yelling.

2006-05-09T10:45:00.000-07:00

Tonight the Sox travel to the Toilet to take on Ichabod Crane and the Spankees in one of the more hyped-up games of the year. Sometimes-ace, sometimes-whippingboy Josh Beckett takes the mound for the Sox, so the Johnson-Beckett matchup has fans and media on both sides of the field salivating and taking their medication. As I posted at ArmchairGM, this game is going to be an even more savage hate-fest than usual.

It boils down to this, and I won't spend much time on it. Randy Johnson, whom I affectionately call Ichabod Crane, is a complete and utter douchebag. Everyone hates him, but Sox fans really hate him, because he wears the pinstripes. Josh Beckett is a punk, and is kind of annoying even to me. Yankees fans despise him due to a certain game 6 shutout in the 2003 World Series. Essentially, what we have here is the makings of the complete overthrow of civilization at Yankee Stadium tonight. Given that on any given night the citizenry of that hallowed ground are about as evolved as Lucan, this could be really frightening.

As far as the actual baseball is concerned, it's hard to predict how either of these power pitchers will perform. Both have had mixed results thus far this season, and both would probably care to forget their last start.

Beckett has had control issues all season, and is pretty steadily averaging a 60%-40% strike to ball ratio with his pitches. Overall his K/BB totals are 23/16 - not ace numbers. In back to back April games against Cleveland and Toronto he was bitten by the homerun bug and gave up 3 taters in each outing. After having three stellar starts in his first three games, this was troubling. His last effort against Toronto was plebeian (4 ER in 5 innings) but at least was devoid of the long ball. This will be a defining start for the young turk. The Sox paid too much to get him for him to wither in games such as these. His pedigree is the gem from the 2003 Series in this very stadium, so he should have the background to come up big, but we'll see. I'm starting to wonder if he isn't bothered by something physically.

Johnson has been more erratic than Beckett. He's basically had three solid outings followed by a shellacking followed by a gem followed by two poor games. it should be noted that two of the "gems" came against KC and Baltimore, so they should be taken with a grain of salt. Most recently Tampa Bay took him for 5 runs in 6 2/3 innings. Despite his Southern disfigurement and his ability to make small children cry RJ is still capable of beating any team on the planet, and has proven that over the course of too many years. Also, Loretta, Ramirez, Lowell, Varitek, and Pena are hitting a collective .213 versus LHP in 2006, with an aggregate OPS of .664. No bueno.

Both pitchers are susceptible to poor first innings, so the key for the Sox will be forcing Johnson to throw strikes and make pitches early, and for guys to get on base an keep Ichabod out of his rhythm. Ditto for the Yanks though, as Beckett has shown a tendency to be wild out of the gate. As always in this series (or any other, really; but these are two teams who see a lot of pitches as a tactic), free passes can be the difference between a win and a loss. The guy who keeps the ball around the plate will be the last man standing.

The Sox do have one clear advantage and that is defensively. The Sox are superior at every infield position, and if rumors are true, the Yanks' centerfielder throws like a girl. If Beckett can keep the ball in the park, this will help him out. That's a pretty big if, granted, but still worth mentioning.

I think the Sox will struggle in this game, and I will frankly be surprised if Beckett gets out of this with fewer than 4 ER under his belt, but if Boston can get to NY's middle relief (I do not buy the Farnsworth hype) I think they have a chance. Either way, it will be a rager to watch. Have beer close by, and try to send the kids to their rooms. Better yet, go to a bar or someone's basement to watch this game. It's tailor made to engender behavior that will make your significant other question your relationship, and scar your children for life. By now we Sox fans don't care about silly things like "maturity" and "sportsmanship", but nobody wants to listen to the grief, do we?

The pain, the terrible pain.

2006-05-04T09:25:00.000-07:00

A tale of two games.

Monday night's defeat of the Silver Spoons was a perfect example of how this team can win games - stay in it, take pitches, and get on base for Papi and Manny. Mirabelli showed why he is beloved by the fans by completing a cross-country odyssey in the nick of time to catch Timmeh, and do it well. The bottom of the lineup chipped in. Tito didn't do anything terribly stupid. When this team does what it should do, what it needs to do, it will beat anyone. On paper they are not overmatched.

Last night's debacle was the flip side of the coin, a failure of Homeric proportions. The Sox did everything wrong. Beckett (again) could not throw strikes. They let the bottom of the Jays order beat them. They sucked in some very creative and unbelievable ways. Tito made some bad decisions. And most importantly, Ortiz and Papelbon had a bad day. Watching the game, they kept battling back, but it almost seemed like they were trying to lose, that's how bad they were in key situations late in the game. It was painful.

There is a crucial difference between this team and the 2004 WC team. This team is not tough from 1-9 in the lineup. I am sticking with my assumption that Loretta is just slumping here, so really I'm talking about Gonzalez, who in the 9-hole is killing innings with regularity. The more generic issue offensively is that despite some decent skills and even some good numbers at face value, there is an inability for a lot of these guys to do good things in the right situations.

The new hot thing in baseball's statistical hemisphere is WPA or Win Probability Added. The short definition is that this statistic measures whether a player contributed to a win (positive WPA) or didn't (negative WPA). Each game has a net value of zero - the winning team gets +.5 and the losers get negative .5. There is a good layman's overview here at Hardball Times.

Fangraphs.com has been kind enough to graph the WPA values for every game, which is interesting. But the games also come with season totals, where some things really stand out. The Jays game and season stats (tabbed page) are here. The horrifying number that punches you in the nuts is Gonzalez's -89.4% total. That is simply astounding. To give you a benchmark, Kansas City, with only 5 wins all year, has two position playing starters in the -50s, and that's as low as they go. I haven't seen anywhere where WPA translates neatly into wins or even runs (although THT has AGon's Runs Created value at TWO for the season), but it is fair to say that he is offensively abysmal. On the plus side, he can't bunt either.

The other shocker (and it was worse before his key hit last night) is Lowell at -16.9%. On the face of it he's having a great season, and to be fair WPA doesn't account for all dependencies, but it is pretty obvious that Mike has been taking advantage of low-pressure situations to produce. Hopefully last night's success marks the beginning of a new age. Loretta is exactly the opposite at +35.1%. He sucks, we all know he sucks, but he has come up with some keys hits, including the walk-off shot against Seattle, and the big hit Monday against the Spanks, and they have bolstered his WPA for the season. When it boils right down to winning and losing, Loretta has found a way to mitigate his suckage. Does that prevent me from wanting to gouge his eyeballs out with a salad fork every time he hits into an inning-ending DP? No.

Just to keep things real, I should note that Gonzalez and Loretta currently have identical VORPs (Value Over Replacement Player) of -5.2. If you're not familiar with VORP, just stick with what you know of book-keeping: you don't want to be in the negative. The short story is neither of them wants to see Pedroia playing well in AAA.

One final note on WPA. Pitchers get a lot of credit for wins and losses, and rightly so, and WPA reflects this. The interesting thing to see in the Sox chart is that Timmeh, despite having a team-worst 1-4 record, looks better than Clement at 2-2. I point this out to show that how the team did is not ultimately reflected by WPA - it denotes what the player did to impact the odds that the team would win. This explains how the Sox can have a winning record in spite of AGon's -89.4%, and his sucking all light into his body at short.

So. Stats are fun, they're interesting, and they help to confirm or deny what we manage to see (or think we see) with our own eyes, but as a fan we have other considerations. For example, how do we FEEL about our team? At this point in the season it's hard to know. I know this much - currently this team is not as good as I thought they'd be. Yeah, it's early, but I don't have confidence that this team will win the games they need to. All teams have bad days, but when they need to win they find a way to do so, and thus far this team hasn't shown that, Monday's victory aside. So color me hopeful, but not confident.

When I go into that bar to watch the Sox play (as I am in SF and have no DirecTV) I want to order my first beer aggressively, not tentatively and like I'm Johnny Damon trying to hit the cutoff. Here, let me expound on how the Sox can impact that first transaction.

Scenario 1: Sox are winning more often that not. Papi and Manny are locked in, we're getting quality starts, and I know if it's close they have a good chance of drumming up some late inning heroics.

I enter the bar. I give my friends the Manny finger point, stride up to the bartender and say "I'll take a Sam Adams, and put the Sox game on that TV please. Nice shirt/haircut/cans."

Scenario 2: Sox are playing just under .500 ball. We're seeing a lot of long relief, and look to be trying to break our own single-season LOB record. Close games are an exercise in masochism, and I begin to wonder if Tito hasn't grown an extra chromosome.

I enter the bar. My friends all shake their heads - why do I do it to myself? I apologize to the bartender beforehand: "I'm gonna try it again. You can put the game on in the corner if you want. I'll take a Sam Adams please, and try to look over every so often - I might need you to turn the game off suddenly before I ram my head through the jukebox."

As you can see that is a pretty big difference. There are three big things that need to happen for the team to reach Scenario 1, and for me to appear normal in public.

First, Beckett has to be automatic. He can't be nibbling around the corners, walking guys and giving up run-scoring doubles to the #9 batter. When Schill and Beckett pitch, we should win, end of story. Clement can be a 50/50 guy if this happens, I'll just hate him.

Second, Loretta has to hit. This should be happening already, but it appears as if he may have gone crazy. Hopefully this is temporary. Maybe when Coco comes back he'll perk up again.

Third, Alex Gonzalez needs to adjust his batting stance so that the upper half of his body is horizontal across the plate. Our best chance to keep innings alive is for him to start getting pelted like an adulteress in the Old Testament.

Ok, I was kidding there. Number three of course is that everyone's favorite dynamo Coco Crisp makes his way back into the lineup. Like Damon before him, as Coco goes, so go the Sox. Of course then we have the problem of keeping WMPSG in the lineup. Wile E. is looking very good at the plate and needs to see more at-bats. Good problem to have I suppose.

There is still plenty of time for the Sox to turn this into a magical season. This team was built well. I am predicting that if the current struggles continue we will see Varitek step up and do some tough-love captaining. I look forward to that. Sometimes everyone needs a kick in the ass.

Mirabelli Returns - The North End Rejoices.

2006-05-01T09:01:00.000-07:00

Link to ESPN story here.

Well, as I mentioned yesterday, the problem needed to be solved. I am not sure it needed to be solved in such a lopsided fashion, but the Sox were dealing with a gun to their heads, and this is what happens.

Mirabelli is a guy who does one thing well at this point - he catches the knuckler. Now, given that he has been complaining of a bad back all season, he may not even be able to do that much longer, in which case this is an extreme screwing by SD. But as it stands, the Sox get a known quantity and they overpay for it.

San Diego will receive Josh Bard, a back-up catcher, to replace their back-up catcher. Bard is younger, does not have back problems, and still has some upside. Bard plus cash for Mirabelli is probably a fair trade from a value perspective. But San Diego will also receive Cla Meredith, the 22-year old side-armer who may actually have a major league career in front of him. Shit, in Petco Park I might have a major league career as a pitcher in front of me. That being said, Meredith has shown signs of brilliance, and at the very least he throws strikes and is tough on righties.

At the end of the day this is what a deal looks like when you are dealing from need and everyone knows it - there are not a lot of catchers out there with knuckleball experience. The Sox obviously needed to do this deal. To be honest, if Theo and Towers didn't have such a good relationship, this might have looked worse. Who can say?

So, welcome back Dougie. Dougie can't hit anymore, and he has a bad back, and he's just in awful, awful shape, but Timmeh loves to throw to him. And not to jinx anyone, but if Wells is done, we are short a fat guy on the team, and this team needs a fat guy.

FOULKED UP:

Keith's latest attempt to get traded or killed by Sox fans is this quote from an article in the Courant...

>> "I think he's probably going to get a heavy booing," Keith Foulke said. "You go from Red Sox Nation to a big Yankee. I'm sure there will be a lot people who will cheer him, but I think you'll hear pretty loud boos. That's just how the fans are."

Damon turned down a four-year, $40 million offer from the Red Sox and got $52 million from the Yankees.

"No one ever leaves their job for a job that pays more money," Foulke said, his words dripping with sarcasm. "Why would [fans] understand? We're just overpaid, spoiled kids." <<

Seriously, how stupid is this man? I'm the first person to admit that many Red Sox fans are mean-spirited, asinine drunks, but how about a little dignity? You get paid millions of dollars to throw a ball for 15 minutes every other night. Would it kill you to recognize that you are not getting the shaft out there?

I really try to give these guys the benefit of the doubt, because it's gotta be tough to deal with the boo-birds, maybe blow a game, and then have to talk to hacks like Shaughnessy and Buckley. But Foulke is just a belligerent douche. At some point someone out there is going to need a closer and I would not be surprised to see him dealt. In fact, I would be almost pleased, despite his abilities. I want to like my players. I doubt I'm alone in that.

Jesus.

2006-04-30T17:57:00.000-07:00

What the....? I leave the country for two weeks and the team goes to shit?!? I am displeased. If this behavior continues I may have to begin referring to myself in the third person. You don't want Shea doing that. Shea will annoy the fuck out of you.

First, let's state the obvious. This is the worst possible time for the team to be slumping, if they are in fact slumping, with the Yanks and Jays coming to town. Regardless of what's happening, they have some important games upcoming, and they need to be better than they are.

They have lost 7 of their last 10 games. Toronto handled them easily, taking Beckett down and pounding on the unsuspecting Lenny Dinardo. Cleveland also took 2 of 3 and embarrassed Beckett in a 15-3 blowout. Worst of all, the Sox dropped 2 of 3 to Tampa Bay, including today's headscratcher in which Rudy Seanez was allowed to pitch in a one-run game (why? why?!?!?). This doesn't paint a pretty picture but if Tito doesn't throw this one away by bringing in Rudy, they are riding a two-game winning streak and nearly played .500 ball on the road, and all is not lost. It's early, and I am not going to call this a full-on slump, but the Sox are not playing to potential.

The most obvious issue is Crisp's finger injury, which has kept him out far longer than expected. It looks like he'll miss 33 games all told, which for those of you who struggled in maths, is over 20% of the regular season. That hurts. Stern projects to be the closest thing to Crisp as a player but it appears the Sox don't think he's ready for primetime (.190 in 20 ABs doesn't feel like Christmas, but it's only 20 ABs) and this gives the FO the opportunity to see what Wile E Mo Pena, Super Genius can do. Crisp brings a lot of energy and ability to the team, and while statistically Youks has performed, the top of the lineup is not the same without Coco.

The top of the lineup is also not the same without Mark Loretta. Loretta's average has dropped nearly 50 points since his walk-off HR on April 17th against Seattle, and while at this point in the season that doesn't spell disaster, it's a little disturbing, isn't it? You have to wonder if Papi or Wily Mo pounded him a little too hard on the helmet during the walk-off celebration. With Crisp out and Youks riding the Lark 2000 around the bases, he needs to show a bit of the gap power he advertised in SD. I was high on Loretta coming into the season and I think he'll turn it around, but this week would be a good time to start.

Manny obviously had a slow start, possibly due to his not realizing the season had started. A couple weeks back Johnny Pesky pulled him aside and using hand-puppets explained that it was time for Manny to play for real, and since then he's picked it up and his OPS is now around .900. Ortiz is doing what Ortiz does, but when Loretta and Manny are hitting it makes his job much easier.

Overall, this team is just not getting it done offensively. Let me shock everyone for a second. As of today, the Boston Red Sox have scored the fewest runs in the AL East. They have scored 117 runs to New York's 144. The Rays have 120, second-to-last. As a benchmark, Cleveland (largely thanks to the Sox) have scored 154 runs to lead the majors.

When you sign Alex Gonzalez, your runs scored figure is going to drop. He cannot hit - at all. When Coco returns, Loretta normalizes, and Manny gets hot this team will score runs, although fewer than last year because they have AGon in the nine-hole, and Dustan Mohr is getting PAs. Still, they will score runs. The idea of course is that their run differential stays the same or improves, and this is accomplished through, you guessed it, pitching and defense. Here is where we are seeing some disappointing figures.

Defense is not a pressing concern in the infield. Lowell's D has not been as advertised, as he has three errors already, and a starting-team-lowest .952 fielding percentage. Since he's hitting well it's a wash but this illustrates the unfortunate theme that Sox players are not playing to potential. Cora also has 3 errors, and he's only been in 6 games (he's a....ahhh....late inning defensive replacement). Still, Gonzalez has been stellar at short, and Loretta and Youks are capable.

Defense in the outfield is troubling right now, since Manny is Manny; Wile E Mo is, well, wow; and Trot is old and slow. Still, if it's cost us more than one game I'd be surprised.

Defense behind the plate is solid as usual when Tek is catching, but is apocalyptically bad when Josh Bard settles in. I am pretty sure there is an entire betting room in Vegas specializing in Knuckleball Keno (a new game every five seconds!) where you take odds on every pitch that Bard commits a passed ball. It is nearly impossible for the Sox to win when he is behind the plate. If guys aren't taking free bases on the 10 passed balls, they're swiping one of their 12 bags thus far - in only 7 games. Short story, Wake is 1-4. This needs to be addressed, or this team does not make the post-season, end of story.

Starting pitching is the thing that concerns me thus far. Pitching stats for 2006 are below:

Player	W	L	ERA	G	IP	H	WHIP	BB	SO	HRR
C Schilling	4	1	2.88	6	40.2	32	0.97	7	40	0.90
T Wakefield	1	4	3.90	5	32.1	30	1.28	11	18	0.84
J Beckett	3	1	4.50	5	32	27	1.25	13	21	1.69
M Clement	2	2	6.14	5	29.1	37	1.79	15	22	0.93
L DiNardo	0	1	7.36	5	18.1	31	1.99	5	8	1.99
K Foulke	2	1	3.71	13	17	11	0.76	2	16	0.53
J Papelbon	0	0	0.00	13	14.1	7	0.64	2	14	0.00
R Seanez	0	0	8.68	9	9.1	12	1.98	6	14	2.97
M Timlin	2	0	1.93	11	9.1	11	1.76	5	6	0.99
J Tavarez	0	0	5.40	8	8.1	9	1.36	2	6	2.22
D Wells	0	1	15.75	1	4	10	2.75	1	1	6.75
J Van Buren	0	0	3.00	1	3	2	1.00	1	1	0.00
M Delcarmen	0	0	13.50	3	2.2	8	4.09	1	2	0.00
D Riske	0	0	18.00	1	1	2	2.00	0	0	9.00

What jumps out? With the exception of Schilling, the starters are not controlling the strike zone, and giving up far too many walks. In the cases of Beckett and Dinardo, mistakes are turning into home runs. Wake is giving up runs since Bard can't catch him (his WHIP and HRR are normal for him), and Clement simply sucks no matter how you slice it. With Fatty McFatFat on the DL, this is not a bedtime story for Sox fans. The much-vaunted Red Sox pitching staff is not off to a strong start (well, except for Arroyo). I know what some of you may be thinking, and before you ask, Jon Lester is not off to a strong start either - he is 0-4 with a 6.94 ERA in Pawtucket, and needs some more seasoning. It goes without saying, I mean really, it does, but these guys have got to throw strikes and get ahead in the count. This team cannot win without quality starts.

The bullpen looks good - Papelbon is a beast and Foulke is coming back - with the exception of the aforementioned Rudy Seanez who quite frankly is the anti-christ. He should be DFA'd very shortly. I will take anyone from Pawtucket, or Portland, or the Stop & Shop over Rudy. I would prefer to see Mad Jeep pitch a couple innings then leap into the stands to sucker-punch a toddler than see Rudy Seanez pitch in a Red Sox uniform ever again. That is all I will say about that.

So this is a big week for your 2006 Red Sox. In the division they are currently 8-7, and as of today are in second place behind the hated Spanks who have gone 7-3 over the past 10 games. The MFYs come in for a quick 2-game kiss, then the Jays (who are 4-2 vs. the Sox this year) come in and Halladay goes against Clement for the Rolaids Spring Classic. Then Baltimore, and our nemesis the otherwise-crappy Rodrigo Lopez, comes in for a visit. There are no easy games for this team. If the Sox do not step up in several key areas, it could be a long, hard spring.

God, I missed baseball.

ta-DAAAAHHH!!!

2006-04-11T18:11:00.000-07:00

Wow. I hope everyone is enjoying April 11th, 2006, know from this day forward as Baseball Clown Car Day. It's not over yet, but we've had all sorts of good things happening!

First off, mere seconds after Joe Soxfan pronounces Mike Lowell dead by pointing at him and yelling "yah dead Lowell!" Mike goes 4-4 against Toronto with three doubles. Not only that, but he hits to all fields. Apparently rumors of his demise are premature.

Later in that same game Tito does me a personal favor and inserts Wily Mo Pena Super Genius into right field to replace the - gasp! - hamstrung Trot Nixon. Using his superior intellect WMPSG waits until Foulkie gives up his signature 340-ft. fly ball out, but turns the tables on everyone by pushing it into the bullpen for a homer. This move, which WMPSG also styled on last season as a Red, is now known simply as the Super Genius. Again, Wily Mo is the gift that keeps on giving. If he did not have the same name as a beloved cartoon character, he'd be dead now.

After the game is long over, the hits keep coming. Adam Stern played his second game today in place of the injured Crisp, going 1-4 and knocking in two runs with a double while also stealing third. It's only two games but he's doing pretty well and one would think this is a somewhat notable MLB story. Not John Kruk though - during the primetime baseball segment of ESPNNews he calls Stern " Adam Stein". Adam, call your mom, she'll be so proud!

Meanwhile, down in New York, Andy Sisco delivers a pitch to Derek Jeter that is such an unbelievable gift that during the slo-mo replay you can actually see Jeter's eyes widening in shock. A high cutter with absolutely nothing on it, moving right up into the eyes - Derek's absolute favorite pitch. His facial expression as he hitches in shock, then deposits it into the left-field stands, is priceless. The pitch is so pathetic that you can feel Jeter pitying the poor bastard even as he strokes it out. Kansas City is just sad. At least they're not owned by Jeffrey Loria, I guess.

Lastly, my personal favorite. Bronson Arroyo hits his second home run in the past week against Glendon Rusch, the same guy that he hit his first career home run against a mere six days ago. Not only does he go yard on Rusch, he goes STREET! Somewhere in Wrigleyville a drunk is explaining to disbelieving onlookers that he was brained by Bronson Arroyo's second dinger of the week. Not good times, great times!

I'm giddy. With Nixon injured I think we're going to get to see more of the Super Genius, and more of Stern, my personal prospect. Two great tastes that go great together. Bring it on.

Coco, we hardly knew ye.

2006-04-11T09:05:00.000-07:00

This is today's 10-minute post. I am in a hurry to drive an hour in a monsoon, because I like that sort of thing.

As everyone knows by now, Crisp has broken a finger while sliding awkwardly into third base. He'll be out anywhere from two weeks to a month or so. Some of you will recall the incredible animosity Manny generated when he pulled the exact same stunt a couple years back. Crisp is getting a flyer here, for a few reasons:

He is generally athletic. When not hitting Manny looks like the type of guy that if you saw him running with scissors, you would simply assume he'd be dead inside 3 minutes. Crisp is getting the benefit of the doubt here in that people are assuming it was simply a fluke play.
It's extremely early in the season, and the Sox have been winning. This makes everything a little easier to take.
Now people can indulge in the guilty pleasure of seeing what Adam Stern has without cheating on Coco. I dare not even hope the unhope-able, that we could see one-man circus Wily Mo Pena Super Genius roaming center field like the Sasquatch. I would pay almost any price for that ticket ("Sometimes, when they hit the ball hard, I don't know where it is going").

Now, Mohr was called up, so the general assumption is that Stern will play against RHPs and Mohr will play against lefties. I don't actually know that that is true though. Stern does not have classic splits (you'll have to trust me on this, I don't have time to look it up again) and Mohr's lifetime .261/.345/.470 against LHPs doesn't exactly give one wood, so I would not be surprised to see Stern get most of the at-bats here. I think it serves him and the team better than trotting Mohr out there because he tries hard. Just off the top of my head I'm going to say Stern's defense is going to be a couple-three runs better than Mohr's over the course of a month, and that might be good enough for a win.

You hate to lose Crisp at this point because he just came out of the gate on fire, but if Stern performs the Sox are in an solid position for 2007. Nixon's ticket is up and Stern has a cannon arm if he has to play RF. Unless he shows more power than I think he has though, I see him more as a trading chip, since the Sox are historically not a team to build around multiple players of that type, and coming up you've got a lot of those (Ellsbury, Lowrie, Pedroia, Corsaletti). If Stern is ready for primetime, I suspect we won't keep him long. I could be wrong though; the guys at ST have been saying that like Ichiro he puts on a long ball show every batting practice.

I am a big fan of Stern, obviously. I'd love to see him mature into a 20/80/30 (HR/RBI/STL) guy and patrol Fenway's outfield for a few years. We need more Canadians - I am always saying that. Ask anyone.

NOTICE:

As most of you who have known me some time will attest, I controll all sports, by forcing players and teams to do the exact opposite of whatever I predict. Please note how my earlier posts have turned Zito and the As around, heated Youkilis' bat up, and in general made all readers wonder if I am not a total idiot. As it turns out, I am a total idiot, it's just that that post is not an indicator of my idiocy, it's just a sampling of a gift I have.

Giddy Up!

2006-04-06T09:15:00.000-07:00

First off, is there any better feeling in the world than being wrong about something you really wanted to be wrong about, even temporarily? Props to the A's for taking two of three from the Spanks! Granted, they had more help than anyone could possibly imagine, but still. Sometimes a little luck is all a team needs to start feeling good about their chances.

On to the barn-burner at Texas last night. This is a game that you have to feel pretty pumped about winning, because while you watched it you were repeatedly punching yourself in the nuts. Beckett threw about 70 (68?) pitches through the first 4 innings, and could not locate his curveball to save his life. Watching every at-bat go to 3-2 was nerve-wracking, and I was certain Texas was going to open it up every inning until Beckett got pissed and started mowing people down. His thing seems to be that he needs to be pissed to pitch well, which is fine. In fact, in the historically Irish-dominated hearts of Red Sox nation, anger is the only acceptable emotion - he's going to be a fan favorite in no time.

The real story of the game last night was the bats - or lack thereof. Given Beckett's propensity towards pitching out of trouble, you sort of figured he'd be able to keep us close after the first few escapes. The ongoing issue was - would the Sox ever get on the board? The Rangers had their much-heralded ace that noone's ever heard of Kameron Loe on the mound, and all he did was induce ground balls. Of his 23 outs, 19 came via the ground ball, including two double-plays by Big Papi, who had one of his worst days as a professional hitter (and maybe ever). His final line? 0-4, 2 DPs, 1K, 4 LOB. No bueno.

In the end of course, good things happened. Nixon was able to solve Loe for a dinger on a mistake pitch, and it was enough. Manny had another assist from left field on a Sveum-esque put-out at home plate on Teixeira, who is quite frankly appallingly, embarrassingly slow of foot. Loretta continues to prove his worth, and was the only guy who was consistently on base. Snow hit the ball on the nuts three times, albeit in the end had nothing to show for it. Beckett settled down, and he and Tek seemingly got on the same page, to finish the 6th and 7th innings strong. While Timlin looked pretty damn awful (shocker!) Paps came in to close the game out with a 1-2-3 9th including two Ks.

Anytime you take two of three on the road you can be pretty pleased, even if it is the Rangers. Still, there are some questions remaining at this point. First off, Manny looks terrible. He is hitting .100. He's taking his pitches and getting on base, but he just looks lost on his cuts. One has to assume he'll figure it out, but if he's not hitting things get decidedly easier for other teams. Ditto Youkilis, who is below the Mendoza line still. Tito is a guy who likes to stick with his guys so Youks will get his at-bats, but with Snow making great contact this is something to watch. Let me say this again: as much as I like Youks, Snow has plenty left and I have no problem with him at first nearly every day. The KB, less so.

On the pitching side of things, there are some same-old same-olds. Foulke was passed up for Paps last night, which is indicative of his current situation at less than 100%. This is something that hopefully works itself out over a ration of low-lev situations, but we'll see. Timlin looks like, well, Timlin - too many balls in play, too many base-runners. Eventually his rate of return will fall below what is acceptable for a set-up man in close games. Hopefully that happens next year, but the off-season acquisitions point towards the FO hedging their bets on that. He's on a short leash. Luckily we do now have the simply abysmal David Riske, and of course The Jeep, currently serving time in baseball's Crazy Jail. If Foulke is healthy, and Paps remains in the bullpen, the writing is on the wall for at least one of these guys come summer.

Lastly, but most importantly, will Wake and Bard be able to get on the same page? Bard looked handicapped in game two of the series. and Wake seems to be a guy who needs to know that his pitches aren't going to skate to the backstop. One unsubstantiated rumor mentioned on SOSH has a scout for one MLB club stating that the Sox will have a new backup catcher in the next few weeks. I'm not sure I buy this - how can it help to bring in someone with a completely new learning curve? I would prefer to give Bard some time to settle in before I shoot him, but it may well be that Wakefield can tell whether a guys has the hands necessary to catch the knuckler and has already pulled the plug. Who knows?

If Bard goes and Riske continues to suck like there's no tomorrow, Crisp becomes a very expensive centerfielder. Fortunately, if he continues to play like he has, I doubt you'll hear too many complaints, even from me.

WHERE ARE THEY NOW?

Let's see how our dearly departed are doing, shall we?

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	AVG
J Damon	15	3	6	3	0	0	1	0.438	0.600	0.400
Hanley	13	2	6	1	1	0	3	0.500	0.692	0.462
Millar	8	4	4	1	0	0	3	0.556	0.625	0.500
Mueller	11	0	6	0	0	0	5	0.571	0.545	0.545

Hmm. The Small Sample Size sign is on, but these guys seem to be enjoying their new homes. I'm sure everyone is well aware of Bronson's big game yesterday (win and HR to help his cause), so thus far in 2006, it's a good year to have left Boston. Good. I for one wish them well.

Much more baseball to be played, many more stories to watch, many questions to be answered. It's April, and life is good. Giddy up.

Won, and Oh...

2006-04-04T10:52:00.000-07:00

The Sox came out of the gate strong yesterday, breaking an unfortunate streak of five consecutive opening day losses with a sold win against a Texas Rangers team that simply cannot pitch. A team that plays in a ballpark that was designed for only two things:

1) Proximity to maximum possible number of strip clubs
2) Hitters

One game is obviously far too early to make a judgment, but it smells a little bit like those pundits who argued that Kevin Millwood wasn't the answer may have been right. At least he's not Chan Ho Park.

On the other hand, the once-and-future-king Curt Schilling looked really tough on the mound in his first real start since fully rehabbing his much-storied Frankenankle. He showed good velocity (depending on who you listen to, he was in the mid-90s on the heater) and location, and refrained from striking anyone in the skull. You have to be pleased.

The Red Sox internet community is agog with wonder at the one-two combination of Crisp and Loretta. Crisp continues to impress with his speed, if not his mathematics, and Loretta is proving that last year's downturn was simply injury-related. By the time pitchers get to Big Papi and Manny they'll have already had a pretty rough time of it. Coco also has shown flashes of brilliance in the field, although it's too early to assess his long term performance there. I suppose one could make the argument that it's far easier to play center when you know that you have to get to every single ball you possibly can. I am certain it never crosses his mind that either Nixon or Manny will be tracking down balls to the gap, or even in many cases to right or left field.

Offensive question mark (in the movie of his life he was to be played by Frank Gorshin until Frank's untimely death) Mike Lowell went yard yesterday and appears to be gaining confidence at the plate. Count me among those who think he can regain some semblance of his former hitting ability. I don't think we'll see him in his prime, or producing at a $9M a year clip, but he will produce. I like him on this team; I think it's a good fit.

Youks continues to refuse to hit, and has vowed that he will not hit again until people stop referring to him as the "Greek God of Walks". He has stated on numerous occasions that he does not like the moniker, partly because he is not Greek, but more importantly because it hurts his feelings and sometimes makes him cry. Nevertheless, with a (in my opinion) perfectly capable JT Snow behind him and a Korean behemoth waiting in the wings to eat Fenway Park, he needs to step it up.

AGon was a pleasant surprise yesterday, going the other way for a couple of hits. I assume this approach is the brainchild of Papa Jack in an effort to help him see the ball a bit better, and prevent him from winning his "pulled balls" contest with Lowell. If it continues I think we'll see his performance at the plate improve overall (not saying much). His defense continues to sparkle, although his baserunning leaves a wee bit to be desired, per yesterday's gaffe.

Foulke did not look good but was quoted as saying he was working on his fastball given the comfortable lead, and just wasn't spotting it well. The jury is still out on Foulke, but thus far its still looking like "12 Angry Men". Papelbon mowed through his inning in 13 pitches, and has the make-up of a guy who will breathe down Foulkie's neck as the season gets warm.

For the most part the team performed as designed, and that is a great sign. The pieces have looked pretty good in the abstract, but we want to see how they fit together, and the early returns are encouraging. Time will tell, but this team looks to be built to contend.

AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT....

Leaving the Sox for a bit, I will share some thoughts on the debacle that was the Yanks - Os game last night. First off, no one should be surprised. Zito's ERA was 6.60 last April and 6.83 the April before that. Those numbers are so staggeringly bad I don't even have to look any deeper. His ERA against the MFYs for 2005 was 7.59, for 2004 it was 5.79 (in an odd juxtaposition). As a team the Spanks are hitting over .300 against Barry over the past two seasons. There is, in fact, not one shred of evidence available to mankind that states that Barry Zito would not get annihiliated last night. And lo! He got annihilated.

In spite of the utter lack of surprise with which I greeted this outcome, this was still a brutal game to watch. Oakland's recent history of rolling over against the Yankees is really starting to piss me off. They were 2-7 against the MFYs last season. This trend continues. The worst part of it is you can actually see them losing the game while they're playing it, in their body language and facial expressions. With Tejada gone the team lacks an offensive leader. I think they're hoping Frank Thomas will be that guy, and he made some strides last night by taking Johnson deep, but this is why you simply cannot bet on the As to win anything. They have no fire at the plate.

Pitching and defense wins championships is all well and good, but that assumes you can score runs against good teams, and they don't; not consistently. They averaged fewer than 4 runs per game last year against the Yanks, Angels, and Cleveland, and exactly 4 runs a game against Minnesota. They averaged 5.7 runs per game agains the Sox, but scored 35 of their 58 runs in two games (of 10) in which the Sox pitching went in the crapper. The aberration last year was against Chicago AL, where they went 7-2 and averaged almost 6 runs per game. Overall, I would describe that as a "nice to have". Maybe Billy feels they can keep other teams to three runs a game with shocking consistency. I'm not a believer.

On the other side of the diamond you have the most hate-able Yankee team in my lifetime. Let's take a look at this roster full of gems:

Randy Johnson: An absolute piece of shit, probably the worst human being in the Bigs.
Gary Sheffield: Well, he's a proven cheater, holds his own front office hostage by refusing to hustle when he wants a trade or refusing to hustle if he is traded, and hates everyone, even his own teammates. Oh, yeah, and he assaults fans. A career criminal.
Jason Giambi: More pathetic than hate-able, but a proven cheater whose every MLB accomplishment is tainted. Has never taken an at-bat naturally.
A-Rod: No one on earth likes this guy. Cheated on national television, got caught, and was unrepentent, because he's better than you. Just ask him - he's better than you.
Indian Name "Throws Like Girl": Johnny Damon has earned his turncoat stripes, and people frown on that. They start frowning about 2 seconds after you claim that you were being "disrespected" for $10 Mil a year. According to that math, 99.9999% of all Americans are living in a constant state of disrespect.
Jorge Posada: This is probably just me, because he looks like an effeminate dashboard troll. Still, that is not that likeable.

Basically Jeter and Williams are the only two guys on that team for whom it's possible to feel any empathy. Fruitbat (Rivera) seems like a decent guy but he is utterly devoid of personality. Mussina is a cypher. Cano is an unknown. The pitching staff after Johnson and Mussina are temps. When you think of the 2006 New York Yankees, you think "douchebags". The problem with this is that naturally, if you're a Yankees fan, you've gotta defend these guys. This creates an untenable situation in terms of relating to the outside world, because the message being sent to everyone is "we don't care about you, we don't care about fair play, we don't care about baseball - we just care about winning". This is not good for anybody. This is the exact same attitude the US is perceived as having to the rest of the world, and look how well we're doing!

At any rate, one of the reasons I'm happy with the 2006 Sox is that this squad's focus on professionalism over Idiocy. Even I was sick of the Idiots and their media presence. I want this team to play baseball. I want them to win, but mostly I want them to play good baseball, and represent Boston in a manner I can be proud of. I think this team (Wells scares me a little) will focus on those things, and I think this is a team that Boston fans will remember fondly, World Championship or not. It's a little easier to enjoy the games now, isn't it? For that I will always thank the Idiots. I just won't miss them.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your 2006 Red Sox! Probably.

2006-03-29T10:10:00.000-08:00

Today we get right down to it. You can view the mostly complete active roster here. These are the guys who will be wearing the shirts we root for in 2006.

Obviously there will be a change or two; almost certainly there will be with respect to Stern once he satisfies the Rule 5 requirements and gets sent down to AAA to play everyday. Wells will start the season on the DL, and will replace Dinardo when he returns. If Mohr accepts assignment to Pawtucket he could be called back up when Stern is demoted, although he probably would not play barring injury. Harris is a better bet in my mind with his speed - he could be this year's Dave Roberts - and because his contract allows him to leave the team if he has not spent any ML time in April.

In terms of the non-roster guys optioned to AAA you have to be pretty pleased. Durrington has shown tremendous versatility and is an Aussie, so you know he can booze. Enrique Wilson is a friend of Manny's and that always has entertainment value, not to mention he has some mentoring aspects that could benefit the Sox' young infielders. There is some appeal to shysty Mike Holtz as a LOOGY; he has looked fairly good in ST, with 13 Ks in 9.2 innings and a 1.33 WHIP. Of course, there are no more damning words in the sports lexicon than "looked good in spring training", but still.

Overall, and I've said this before, this team looks good on paper. This has been an exciting few weeks in getting to this team though. In typical 2006 offseason fashion, there had to be some drama.

The first shoe to drop was the trade for Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius, as we have covered already. This hurt Mohr, and of course we all feel badly for him, but he is not a super genius, nor does he hit the ball far away. At least, not by WMPSG's standards. I suppose a lot of people would argue this hurt Arroyo too, but I feel this move helps his career (his baseball career). As I have stated before, from a pure entertainment value perspective, Wily Mo is the greatest acquisition of the decade.

The second shoe to drop was the waiver claim of Korean behemoth Hee Seop-Choi, a name which in Korean means "behemoth". Choi is a hulking first baseman with some power whose best isolated skill is his batting eye, as evidenced by his career .349 OBP. Despite this, he also strikes out a ton, a weakness that according to the Korean national coach (read the article in Donga - that's right, the Donga need food - here) can be attributed to Choi's resistance to making adjustments to counter holes in his swing. This doesn't make me feel good, but the kid is just 27 and there is time for him to come to the table. Given his treatment by the Dodgers and LA media, I would think he has to understand this could be his last chance.

Walking barefoot out the door was embittered second baseman Tony Graffanino. I have to be honest, I think Graff was ill-used to some degree by the Sox in the whole arbitration play, and is just a guy who, overall, probably hasn't gotten a fair shake in the bigs. He came over to the Sox in the middle of a pennant race in Boston, and put up the following line while playing very solid defense:

G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	OBP	SLG	AVG
51	188	39	60	12	1	4	20	86	0.355	0.457	0.319

I've heard people say that Graffanino is a utility guy only who isn't starter material, and last year was a career year that's an aberration, but I think that's bullshit. Last year was the most at-bats the guy's ever seen. He moves from Kansas City, baseball's burial above ground, to Boston, where every fan should be medicated, and ups his game to a new level. All this guy does is bring a professional attitude to the field, to the batter's box, and to the team, and perform. He should be starting for a half-dozen teams in the bigs on opening day, IMO. I suppose I should be thankful the Sox are not one of them though, as Loretta has the ability to tear it up if he's healthy this year.

One of the stories to watch over the course of the first half of the season will be the supposedly much-upgraded bullpen. I say supposedly because the word "supposedly" means "pertaining to things that I have doubts about". Foulke looks good so far but knees always worry me. Timlin at some point has to realize he's old. Riske has more or less...no, just more, actually...sucked thus far, against guys he should be getting out. And Tavarez is crazy as a shithouse rat.

All the other stuff will work itself out, in my opinion, so let's look at Taverez. First of all, his last name is Tavarez, not Tavares. Tavares was a 1970's disco band, best known for their inspired - but not at all relevent to crazy Julian - single "Heaven Must Be Missing An Angel". Butch, Chubby, Pooch, Ralph and Tiny would be horrified to learn that they were being lumped together with a sociopath who has the added burden of looking like the "Jeep" from the Popeye cartoon:

One has to wonder if we are looking at another Jay Payton situation in which a player's douchy personality outweighs the things he can do on the field. Now, granted, given that the Jeep is a much more highly leveraged player than Payton, he will have to be a much bigger douche (it's hard to believe I am typing this) to reach that tipping point, but given what he's shown us thus far, I don't think it's out of reach. Standing at home plate punching people as they arrive is not a subtle message that you are unwell, it is the Citgo sign of unwell messages.

So, the 2006 Boston Red Sox. If I had to pick one word to describe this team so far it would be "bemusing". I am always looking at them, thinking about all the possible outcomes. Bemusing is better than ambivalent, for sure, so we're making progress. I mean, I can't think about this team without worrying a little bit and chuckling a little bit at the same time. Of course, that behaviour would fit the description "ambivalent" pretty aptly, so I suppose really I have no point here.

What I think I'm trying to get at is that the 2006 Red Sox are a bit like a puzzle right now, a puzzle with many solutions, some more elegant that others. I'm reminded of the triangular peg solitaire Howard Johnson's used to place on the booth tables (I think Cracker Barrel had them as well). If you solve the puzzle with only one peg remaining you are a genius, with two remaining you are very very smart, and so on down to like seven remaining, at which point you are Julian Tavarez. I am eager to see how many pegs are remaining on Theo's puzzle come August, and I honestly have no idea what that number will be. But here's hoping it's one.