Tonight the Sox travel to the Toilet to take on Ichabod Crane and the Spankees in one of the more hyped-up games of the year. Sometimes-ace, sometimes-whippingboy Josh Beckett takes the mound for the Sox, so the Johnson-Beckett matchup has fans and media on both sides of the field salivating and taking their medication. As I posted at ArmchairGM, this game is going to be an even more savage hate-fest than usual.
It boils down to this, and I won't spend much time on it. Randy Johnson, whom I affectionately call Ichabod Crane, is a complete and utter douchebag. Everyone hates him, but Sox fans really hate him, because he wears the pinstripes. Josh Beckett is a punk, and is kind of annoying even to me. Yankees fans despise him due to a certain game 6 shutout in the 2003 World Series. Essentially, what we have here is the makings of the complete overthrow of civilization at Yankee Stadium tonight. Given that on any given night the citizenry of that hallowed ground are about as evolved as Lucan, this could be really frightening.
As far as the actual baseball is concerned, it's hard to predict how either of these power pitchers will perform. Both have had mixed results thus far this season, and both would probably care to forget their last start.
Beckett has had control issues all season, and is pretty steadily averaging a 60%-40% strike to ball ratio with his pitches. Overall his K/BB totals are 23/16 - not ace numbers. In back to back April games against Cleveland and Toronto he was bitten by the homerun bug and gave up 3 taters in each outing. After having three stellar starts in his first three games, this was troubling. His last effort against Toronto was plebeian (4 ER in 5 innings) but at least was devoid of the long ball. This will be a defining start for the young turk. The Sox paid too much to get him for him to wither in games such as these. His pedigree is the gem from the 2003 Series in this very stadium, so he should have the background to come up big, but we'll see. I'm starting to wonder if he isn't bothered by something physically.
Johnson has been more erratic than Beckett. He's basically had three solid outings followed by a shellacking followed by a gem followed by two poor games. it should be noted that two of the "gems" came against KC and Baltimore, so they should be taken with a grain of salt. Most recently Tampa Bay took him for 5 runs in 6 2/3 innings. Despite his Southern disfigurement and his ability to make small children cry RJ is still capable of beating any team on the planet, and has proven that over the course of too many years. Also, Loretta, Ramirez, Lowell, Varitek, and Pena are hitting a collective .213 versus LHP in 2006, with an aggregate OPS of .664. No bueno.
Both pitchers are susceptible to poor first innings, so the key for the Sox will be forcing Johnson to throw strikes and make pitches early, and for guys to get on base an keep Ichabod out of his rhythm. Ditto for the Yanks though, as Beckett has shown a tendency to be wild out of the gate. As always in this series (or any other, really; but these are two teams who see a lot of pitches as a tactic), free passes can be the difference between a win and a loss. The guy who keeps the ball around the plate will be the last man standing.
The Sox do have one clear advantage and that is defensively. The Sox are superior at every infield position, and if rumors are true, the Yanks' centerfielder throws like a girl. If Beckett can keep the ball in the park, this will help him out. That's a pretty big if, granted, but still worth mentioning.
I think the Sox will struggle in this game, and I will frankly be surprised if Beckett gets out of this with fewer than 4 ER under his belt, but if Boston can get to NY's middle relief (I do not buy the Farnsworth hype) I think they have a chance. Either way, it will be a rager to watch. Have beer close by, and try to send the kids to their rooms. Better yet, go to a bar or someone's basement to watch this game. It's tailor made to engender behavior that will make your significant other question your relationship, and scar your children for life. By now we Sox fans don't care about silly things like "maturity" and "sportsmanship", but nobody wants to listen to the grief, do we?
Tuesday, May 09, 2006
Thursday, May 04, 2006
The pain, the terrible pain.
A tale of two games.
Monday night's defeat of the Silver Spoons was a perfect example of how this team can win games - stay in it, take pitches, and get on base for Papi and Manny. Mirabelli showed why he is beloved by the fans by completing a cross-country odyssey in the nick of time to catch Timmeh, and do it well. The bottom of the lineup chipped in. Tito didn't do anything terribly stupid. When this team does what it should do, what it needs to do, it will beat anyone. On paper they are not overmatched.
Last night's debacle was the flip side of the coin, a failure of Homeric proportions. The Sox did everything wrong. Beckett (again) could not throw strikes. They let the bottom of the Jays order beat them. They sucked in some very creative and unbelievable ways. Tito made some bad decisions. And most importantly, Ortiz and Papelbon had a bad day. Watching the game, they kept battling back, but it almost seemed like they were trying to lose, that's how bad they were in key situations late in the game. It was painful.
There is a crucial difference between this team and the 2004 WC team. This team is not tough from 1-9 in the lineup. I am sticking with my assumption that Loretta is just slumping here, so really I'm talking about Gonzalez, who in the 9-hole is killing innings with regularity. The more generic issue offensively is that despite some decent skills and even some good numbers at face value, there is an inability for a lot of these guys to do good things in the right situations.
The new hot thing in baseball's statistical hemisphere is WPA or Win Probability Added. The short definition is that this statistic measures whether a player contributed to a win (positive WPA) or didn't (negative WPA). Each game has a net value of zero - the winning team gets +.5 and the losers get negative .5. There is a good layman's overview here at Hardball Times.
Fangraphs.com has been kind enough to graph the WPA values for every game, which is interesting. But the games also come with season totals, where some things really stand out. The Jays game and season stats (tabbed page) are here. The horrifying number that punches you in the nuts is Gonzalez's -89.4% total. That is simply astounding. To give you a benchmark, Kansas City, with only 5 wins all year, has two position playing starters in the -50s, and that's as low as they go. I haven't seen anywhere where WPA translates neatly into wins or even runs (although THT has AGon's Runs Created value at TWO for the season), but it is fair to say that he is offensively abysmal. On the plus side, he can't bunt either.
The other shocker (and it was worse before his key hit last night) is Lowell at -16.9%. On the face of it he's having a great season, and to be fair WPA doesn't account for all dependencies, but it is pretty obvious that Mike has been taking advantage of low-pressure situations to produce. Hopefully last night's success marks the beginning of a new age. Loretta is exactly the opposite at +35.1%. He sucks, we all know he sucks, but he has come up with some keys hits, including the walk-off shot against Seattle, and the big hit Monday against the Spanks, and they have bolstered his WPA for the season. When it boils right down to winning and losing, Loretta has found a way to mitigate his suckage. Does that prevent me from wanting to gouge his eyeballs out with a salad fork every time he hits into an inning-ending DP? No.
Just to keep things real, I should note that Gonzalez and Loretta currently have identical VORPs (Value Over Replacement Player) of -5.2. If you're not familiar with VORP, just stick with what you know of book-keeping: you don't want to be in the negative. The short story is neither of them wants to see Pedroia playing well in AAA.
One final note on WPA. Pitchers get a lot of credit for wins and losses, and rightly so, and WPA reflects this. The interesting thing to see in the Sox chart is that Timmeh, despite having a team-worst 1-4 record, looks better than Clement at 2-2. I point this out to show that how the team did is not ultimately reflected by WPA - it denotes what the player did to impact the odds that the team would win. This explains how the Sox can have a winning record in spite of AGon's -89.4%, and his sucking all light into his body at short.
So. Stats are fun, they're interesting, and they help to confirm or deny what we manage to see (or think we see) with our own eyes, but as a fan we have other considerations. For example, how do we FEEL about our team? At this point in the season it's hard to know. I know this much - currently this team is not as good as I thought they'd be. Yeah, it's early, but I don't have confidence that this team will win the games they need to. All teams have bad days, but when they need to win they find a way to do so, and thus far this team hasn't shown that, Monday's victory aside. So color me hopeful, but not confident.
When I go into that bar to watch the Sox play (as I am in SF and have no DirecTV) I want to order my first beer aggressively, not tentatively and like I'm Johnny Damon trying to hit the cutoff. Here, let me expound on how the Sox can impact that first transaction.
Scenario 1: Sox are winning more often that not. Papi and Manny are locked in, we're getting quality starts, and I know if it's close they have a good chance of drumming up some late inning heroics.
I enter the bar. I give my friends the Manny finger point, stride up to the bartender and say "I'll take a Sam Adams, and put the Sox game on that TV please. Nice shirt/haircut/cans."
Scenario 2: Sox are playing just under .500 ball. We're seeing a lot of long relief, and look to be trying to break our own single-season LOB record. Close games are an exercise in masochism, and I begin to wonder if Tito hasn't grown an extra chromosome.
I enter the bar. My friends all shake their heads - why do I do it to myself? I apologize to the bartender beforehand: "I'm gonna try it again. You can put the game on in the corner if you want. I'll take a Sam Adams please, and try to look over every so often - I might need you to turn the game off suddenly before I ram my head through the jukebox."
As you can see that is a pretty big difference. There are three big things that need to happen for the team to reach Scenario 1, and for me to appear normal in public.
First, Beckett has to be automatic. He can't be nibbling around the corners, walking guys and giving up run-scoring doubles to the #9 batter. When Schill and Beckett pitch, we should win, end of story. Clement can be a 50/50 guy if this happens, I'll just hate him.
Second, Loretta has to hit. This should be happening already, but it appears as if he may have gone crazy. Hopefully this is temporary. Maybe when Coco comes back he'll perk up again.
Third, Alex Gonzalez needs to adjust his batting stance so that the upper half of his body is horizontal across the plate. Our best chance to keep innings alive is for him to start getting pelted like an adulteress in the Old Testament.
Ok, I was kidding there. Number three of course is that everyone's favorite dynamo Coco Crisp makes his way back into the lineup. Like Damon before him, as Coco goes, so go the Sox. Of course then we have the problem of keeping WMPSG in the lineup. Wile E. is looking very good at the plate and needs to see more at-bats. Good problem to have I suppose.
There is still plenty of time for the Sox to turn this into a magical season. This team was built well. I am predicting that if the current struggles continue we will see Varitek step up and do some tough-love captaining. I look forward to that. Sometimes everyone needs a kick in the ass.
Monday night's defeat of the Silver Spoons was a perfect example of how this team can win games - stay in it, take pitches, and get on base for Papi and Manny. Mirabelli showed why he is beloved by the fans by completing a cross-country odyssey in the nick of time to catch Timmeh, and do it well. The bottom of the lineup chipped in. Tito didn't do anything terribly stupid. When this team does what it should do, what it needs to do, it will beat anyone. On paper they are not overmatched.
Last night's debacle was the flip side of the coin, a failure of Homeric proportions. The Sox did everything wrong. Beckett (again) could not throw strikes. They let the bottom of the Jays order beat them. They sucked in some very creative and unbelievable ways. Tito made some bad decisions. And most importantly, Ortiz and Papelbon had a bad day. Watching the game, they kept battling back, but it almost seemed like they were trying to lose, that's how bad they were in key situations late in the game. It was painful.
There is a crucial difference between this team and the 2004 WC team. This team is not tough from 1-9 in the lineup. I am sticking with my assumption that Loretta is just slumping here, so really I'm talking about Gonzalez, who in the 9-hole is killing innings with regularity. The more generic issue offensively is that despite some decent skills and even some good numbers at face value, there is an inability for a lot of these guys to do good things in the right situations.
The new hot thing in baseball's statistical hemisphere is WPA or Win Probability Added. The short definition is that this statistic measures whether a player contributed to a win (positive WPA) or didn't (negative WPA). Each game has a net value of zero - the winning team gets +.5 and the losers get negative .5. There is a good layman's overview here at Hardball Times.
Fangraphs.com has been kind enough to graph the WPA values for every game, which is interesting. But the games also come with season totals, where some things really stand out. The Jays game and season stats (tabbed page) are here. The horrifying number that punches you in the nuts is Gonzalez's -89.4% total. That is simply astounding. To give you a benchmark, Kansas City, with only 5 wins all year, has two position playing starters in the -50s, and that's as low as they go. I haven't seen anywhere where WPA translates neatly into wins or even runs (although THT has AGon's Runs Created value at TWO for the season), but it is fair to say that he is offensively abysmal. On the plus side, he can't bunt either.
The other shocker (and it was worse before his key hit last night) is Lowell at -16.9%. On the face of it he's having a great season, and to be fair WPA doesn't account for all dependencies, but it is pretty obvious that Mike has been taking advantage of low-pressure situations to produce. Hopefully last night's success marks the beginning of a new age. Loretta is exactly the opposite at +35.1%. He sucks, we all know he sucks, but he has come up with some keys hits, including the walk-off shot against Seattle, and the big hit Monday against the Spanks, and they have bolstered his WPA for the season. When it boils right down to winning and losing, Loretta has found a way to mitigate his suckage. Does that prevent me from wanting to gouge his eyeballs out with a salad fork every time he hits into an inning-ending DP? No.
Just to keep things real, I should note that Gonzalez and Loretta currently have identical VORPs (Value Over Replacement Player) of -5.2. If you're not familiar with VORP, just stick with what you know of book-keeping: you don't want to be in the negative. The short story is neither of them wants to see Pedroia playing well in AAA.
One final note on WPA. Pitchers get a lot of credit for wins and losses, and rightly so, and WPA reflects this. The interesting thing to see in the Sox chart is that Timmeh, despite having a team-worst 1-4 record, looks better than Clement at 2-2. I point this out to show that how the team did is not ultimately reflected by WPA - it denotes what the player did to impact the odds that the team would win. This explains how the Sox can have a winning record in spite of AGon's -89.4%, and his sucking all light into his body at short.
So. Stats are fun, they're interesting, and they help to confirm or deny what we manage to see (or think we see) with our own eyes, but as a fan we have other considerations. For example, how do we FEEL about our team? At this point in the season it's hard to know. I know this much - currently this team is not as good as I thought they'd be. Yeah, it's early, but I don't have confidence that this team will win the games they need to. All teams have bad days, but when they need to win they find a way to do so, and thus far this team hasn't shown that, Monday's victory aside. So color me hopeful, but not confident.
When I go into that bar to watch the Sox play (as I am in SF and have no DirecTV) I want to order my first beer aggressively, not tentatively and like I'm Johnny Damon trying to hit the cutoff. Here, let me expound on how the Sox can impact that first transaction.
Scenario 1: Sox are winning more often that not. Papi and Manny are locked in, we're getting quality starts, and I know if it's close they have a good chance of drumming up some late inning heroics.
I enter the bar. I give my friends the Manny finger point, stride up to the bartender and say "I'll take a Sam Adams, and put the Sox game on that TV please. Nice shirt/haircut/cans."
Scenario 2: Sox are playing just under .500 ball. We're seeing a lot of long relief, and look to be trying to break our own single-season LOB record. Close games are an exercise in masochism, and I begin to wonder if Tito hasn't grown an extra chromosome.
I enter the bar. My friends all shake their heads - why do I do it to myself? I apologize to the bartender beforehand: "I'm gonna try it again. You can put the game on in the corner if you want. I'll take a Sam Adams please, and try to look over every so often - I might need you to turn the game off suddenly before I ram my head through the jukebox."
As you can see that is a pretty big difference. There are three big things that need to happen for the team to reach Scenario 1, and for me to appear normal in public.
First, Beckett has to be automatic. He can't be nibbling around the corners, walking guys and giving up run-scoring doubles to the #9 batter. When Schill and Beckett pitch, we should win, end of story. Clement can be a 50/50 guy if this happens, I'll just hate him.
Second, Loretta has to hit. This should be happening already, but it appears as if he may have gone crazy. Hopefully this is temporary. Maybe when Coco comes back he'll perk up again.
Third, Alex Gonzalez needs to adjust his batting stance so that the upper half of his body is horizontal across the plate. Our best chance to keep innings alive is for him to start getting pelted like an adulteress in the Old Testament.
Ok, I was kidding there. Number three of course is that everyone's favorite dynamo Coco Crisp makes his way back into the lineup. Like Damon before him, as Coco goes, so go the Sox. Of course then we have the problem of keeping WMPSG in the lineup. Wile E. is looking very good at the plate and needs to see more at-bats. Good problem to have I suppose.
There is still plenty of time for the Sox to turn this into a magical season. This team was built well. I am predicting that if the current struggles continue we will see Varitek step up and do some tough-love captaining. I look forward to that. Sometimes everyone needs a kick in the ass.
Monday, May 01, 2006
Mirabelli Returns - The North End Rejoices.
Link to ESPN story here.
Well, as I mentioned yesterday, the problem needed to be solved. I am not sure it needed to be solved in such a lopsided fashion, but the Sox were dealing with a gun to their heads, and this is what happens.
Mirabelli is a guy who does one thing well at this point - he catches the knuckler. Now, given that he has been complaining of a bad back all season, he may not even be able to do that much longer, in which case this is an extreme screwing by SD. But as it stands, the Sox get a known quantity and they overpay for it.
San Diego will receive Josh Bard, a back-up catcher, to replace their back-up catcher. Bard is younger, does not have back problems, and still has some upside. Bard plus cash for Mirabelli is probably a fair trade from a value perspective. But San Diego will also receive Cla Meredith, the 22-year old side-armer who may actually have a major league career in front of him. Shit, in Petco Park I might have a major league career as a pitcher in front of me. That being said, Meredith has shown signs of brilliance, and at the very least he throws strikes and is tough on righties.
At the end of the day this is what a deal looks like when you are dealing from need and everyone knows it - there are not a lot of catchers out there with knuckleball experience. The Sox obviously needed to do this deal. To be honest, if Theo and Towers didn't have such a good relationship, this might have looked worse. Who can say?
So, welcome back Dougie. Dougie can't hit anymore, and he has a bad back, and he's just in awful, awful shape, but Timmeh loves to throw to him. And not to jinx anyone, but if Wells is done, we are short a fat guy on the team, and this team needs a fat guy.
FOULKED UP:
Keith's latest attempt to get traded or killed by Sox fans is this quote from an article in the Courant...
>> "I think he's probably going to get a heavy booing," Keith Foulke said. "You go from Red Sox Nation to a big Yankee. I'm sure there will be a lot people who will cheer him, but I think you'll hear pretty loud boos. That's just how the fans are."
Damon turned down a four-year, $40 million offer from the Red Sox and got $52 million from the Yankees.
"No one ever leaves their job for a job that pays more money," Foulke said, his words dripping with sarcasm. "Why would [fans] understand? We're just overpaid, spoiled kids." <<
Seriously, how stupid is this man? I'm the first person to admit that many Red Sox fans are mean-spirited, asinine drunks, but how about a little dignity? You get paid millions of dollars to throw a ball for 15 minutes every other night. Would it kill you to recognize that you are not getting the shaft out there?
I really try to give these guys the benefit of the doubt, because it's gotta be tough to deal with the boo-birds, maybe blow a game, and then have to talk to hacks like Shaughnessy and Buckley. But Foulke is just a belligerent douche. At some point someone out there is going to need a closer and I would not be surprised to see him dealt. In fact, I would be almost pleased, despite his abilities. I want to like my players. I doubt I'm alone in that.
Well, as I mentioned yesterday, the problem needed to be solved. I am not sure it needed to be solved in such a lopsided fashion, but the Sox were dealing with a gun to their heads, and this is what happens.
Mirabelli is a guy who does one thing well at this point - he catches the knuckler. Now, given that he has been complaining of a bad back all season, he may not even be able to do that much longer, in which case this is an extreme screwing by SD. But as it stands, the Sox get a known quantity and they overpay for it.
San Diego will receive Josh Bard, a back-up catcher, to replace their back-up catcher. Bard is younger, does not have back problems, and still has some upside. Bard plus cash for Mirabelli is probably a fair trade from a value perspective. But San Diego will also receive Cla Meredith, the 22-year old side-armer who may actually have a major league career in front of him. Shit, in Petco Park I might have a major league career as a pitcher in front of me. That being said, Meredith has shown signs of brilliance, and at the very least he throws strikes and is tough on righties.
At the end of the day this is what a deal looks like when you are dealing from need and everyone knows it - there are not a lot of catchers out there with knuckleball experience. The Sox obviously needed to do this deal. To be honest, if Theo and Towers didn't have such a good relationship, this might have looked worse. Who can say?
So, welcome back Dougie. Dougie can't hit anymore, and he has a bad back, and he's just in awful, awful shape, but Timmeh loves to throw to him. And not to jinx anyone, but if Wells is done, we are short a fat guy on the team, and this team needs a fat guy.
FOULKED UP:
Keith's latest attempt to get traded or killed by Sox fans is this quote from an article in the Courant...
>> "I think he's probably going to get a heavy booing," Keith Foulke said. "You go from Red Sox Nation to a big Yankee. I'm sure there will be a lot people who will cheer him, but I think you'll hear pretty loud boos. That's just how the fans are."
Damon turned down a four-year, $40 million offer from the Red Sox and got $52 million from the Yankees.
"No one ever leaves their job for a job that pays more money," Foulke said, his words dripping with sarcasm. "Why would [fans] understand? We're just overpaid, spoiled kids." <<
Seriously, how stupid is this man? I'm the first person to admit that many Red Sox fans are mean-spirited, asinine drunks, but how about a little dignity? You get paid millions of dollars to throw a ball for 15 minutes every other night. Would it kill you to recognize that you are not getting the shaft out there?
I really try to give these guys the benefit of the doubt, because it's gotta be tough to deal with the boo-birds, maybe blow a game, and then have to talk to hacks like Shaughnessy and Buckley. But Foulke is just a belligerent douche. At some point someone out there is going to need a closer and I would not be surprised to see him dealt. In fact, I would be almost pleased, despite his abilities. I want to like my players. I doubt I'm alone in that.
Sunday, April 30, 2006
Jesus.
What the....? I leave the country for two weeks and the team goes to shit?!? I am displeased. If this behavior continues I may have to begin referring to myself in the third person. You don't want Shea doing that. Shea will annoy the fuck out of you.
First, let's state the obvious. This is the worst possible time for the team to be slumping, if they are in fact slumping, with the Yanks and Jays coming to town. Regardless of what's happening, they have some important games upcoming, and they need to be better than they are.
They have lost 7 of their last 10 games. Toronto handled them easily, taking Beckett down and pounding on the unsuspecting Lenny Dinardo. Cleveland also took 2 of 3 and embarrassed Beckett in a 15-3 blowout. Worst of all, the Sox dropped 2 of 3 to Tampa Bay, including today's headscratcher in which Rudy Seanez was allowed to pitch in a one-run game (why? why?!?!?). This doesn't paint a pretty picture but if Tito doesn't throw this one away by bringing in Rudy, they are riding a two-game winning streak and nearly played .500 ball on the road, and all is not lost. It's early, and I am not going to call this a full-on slump, but the Sox are not playing to potential.
The most obvious issue is Crisp's finger injury, which has kept him out far longer than expected. It looks like he'll miss 33 games all told, which for those of you who struggled in maths, is over 20% of the regular season. That hurts. Stern projects to be the closest thing to Crisp as a player but it appears the Sox don't think he's ready for primetime (.190 in 20 ABs doesn't feel like Christmas, but it's only 20 ABs) and this gives the FO the opportunity to see what Wile E Mo Pena, Super Genius can do. Crisp brings a lot of energy and ability to the team, and while statistically Youks has performed, the top of the lineup is not the same without Coco.
The top of the lineup is also not the same without Mark Loretta. Loretta's average has dropped nearly 50 points since his walk-off HR on April 17th against Seattle, and while at this point in the season that doesn't spell disaster, it's a little disturbing, isn't it? You have to wonder if Papi or Wily Mo pounded him a little too hard on the helmet during the walk-off celebration. With Crisp out and Youks riding the Lark 2000 around the bases, he needs to show a bit of the gap power he advertised in SD. I was high on Loretta coming into the season and I think he'll turn it around, but this week would be a good time to start.
Manny obviously had a slow start, possibly due to his not realizing the season had started. A couple weeks back Johnny Pesky pulled him aside and using hand-puppets explained that it was time for Manny to play for real, and since then he's picked it up and his OPS is now around .900. Ortiz is doing what Ortiz does, but when Loretta and Manny are hitting it makes his job much easier.
Overall, this team is just not getting it done offensively. Let me shock everyone for a second. As of today, the Boston Red Sox have scored the fewest runs in the AL East. They have scored 117 runs to New York's 144. The Rays have 120, second-to-last. As a benchmark, Cleveland (largely thanks to the Sox) have scored 154 runs to lead the majors.
When you sign Alex Gonzalez, your runs scored figure is going to drop. He cannot hit - at all. When Coco returns, Loretta normalizes, and Manny gets hot this team will score runs, although fewer than last year because they have AGon in the nine-hole, and Dustan Mohr is getting PAs. Still, they will score runs. The idea of course is that their run differential stays the same or improves, and this is accomplished through, you guessed it, pitching and defense. Here is where we are seeing some disappointing figures.
Defense is not a pressing concern in the infield. Lowell's D has not been as advertised, as he has three errors already, and a starting-team-lowest .952 fielding percentage. Since he's hitting well it's a wash but this illustrates the unfortunate theme that Sox players are not playing to potential. Cora also has 3 errors, and he's only been in 6 games (he's a....ahhh....late inning defensive replacement). Still, Gonzalez has been stellar at short, and Loretta and Youks are capable.
Defense in the outfield is troubling right now, since Manny is Manny; Wile E Mo is, well, wow; and Trot is old and slow. Still, if it's cost us more than one game I'd be surprised.
Defense behind the plate is solid as usual when Tek is catching, but is apocalyptically bad when Josh Bard settles in. I am pretty sure there is an entire betting room in Vegas specializing in Knuckleball Keno (a new game every five seconds!) where you take odds on every pitch that Bard commits a passed ball. It is nearly impossible for the Sox to win when he is behind the plate. If guys aren't taking free bases on the 10 passed balls, they're swiping one of their 12 bags thus far - in only 7 games. Short story, Wake is 1-4. This needs to be addressed, or this team does not make the post-season, end of story.
Starting pitching is the thing that concerns me thus far. Pitching stats for 2006 are below:
What jumps out? With the exception of Schilling, the starters are not controlling the strike zone, and giving up far too many walks. In the cases of Beckett and Dinardo, mistakes are turning into home runs. Wake is giving up runs since Bard can't catch him (his WHIP and HRR are normal for him), and Clement simply sucks no matter how you slice it. With Fatty McFatFat on the DL, this is not a bedtime story for Sox fans. The much-vaunted Red Sox pitching staff is not off to a strong start (well, except for Arroyo). I know what some of you may be thinking, and before you ask, Jon Lester is not off to a strong start either - he is 0-4 with a 6.94 ERA in Pawtucket, and needs some more seasoning. It goes without saying, I mean really, it does, but these guys have got to throw strikes and get ahead in the count. This team cannot win without quality starts.
The bullpen looks good - Papelbon is a beast and Foulke is coming back - with the exception of the aforementioned Rudy Seanez who quite frankly is the anti-christ. He should be DFA'd very shortly. I will take anyone from Pawtucket, or Portland, or the Stop & Shop over Rudy. I would prefer to see Mad Jeep pitch a couple innings then leap into the stands to sucker-punch a toddler than see Rudy Seanez pitch in a Red Sox uniform ever again. That is all I will say about that.
So this is a big week for your 2006 Red Sox. In the division they are currently 8-7, and as of today are in second place behind the hated Spanks who have gone 7-3 over the past 10 games. The MFYs come in for a quick 2-game kiss, then the Jays (who are 4-2 vs. the Sox this year) come in and Halladay goes against Clement for the Rolaids Spring Classic. Then Baltimore, and our nemesis the otherwise-crappy Rodrigo Lopez, comes in for a visit. There are no easy games for this team. If the Sox do not step up in several key areas, it could be a long, hard spring.
God, I missed baseball.
First, let's state the obvious. This is the worst possible time for the team to be slumping, if they are in fact slumping, with the Yanks and Jays coming to town. Regardless of what's happening, they have some important games upcoming, and they need to be better than they are.
They have lost 7 of their last 10 games. Toronto handled them easily, taking Beckett down and pounding on the unsuspecting Lenny Dinardo. Cleveland also took 2 of 3 and embarrassed Beckett in a 15-3 blowout. Worst of all, the Sox dropped 2 of 3 to Tampa Bay, including today's headscratcher in which Rudy Seanez was allowed to pitch in a one-run game (why? why?!?!?). This doesn't paint a pretty picture but if Tito doesn't throw this one away by bringing in Rudy, they are riding a two-game winning streak and nearly played .500 ball on the road, and all is not lost. It's early, and I am not going to call this a full-on slump, but the Sox are not playing to potential.
The most obvious issue is Crisp's finger injury, which has kept him out far longer than expected. It looks like he'll miss 33 games all told, which for those of you who struggled in maths, is over 20% of the regular season. That hurts. Stern projects to be the closest thing to Crisp as a player but it appears the Sox don't think he's ready for primetime (.190 in 20 ABs doesn't feel like Christmas, but it's only 20 ABs) and this gives the FO the opportunity to see what Wile E Mo Pena, Super Genius can do. Crisp brings a lot of energy and ability to the team, and while statistically Youks has performed, the top of the lineup is not the same without Coco.
The top of the lineup is also not the same without Mark Loretta. Loretta's average has dropped nearly 50 points since his walk-off HR on April 17th against Seattle, and while at this point in the season that doesn't spell disaster, it's a little disturbing, isn't it? You have to wonder if Papi or Wily Mo pounded him a little too hard on the helmet during the walk-off celebration. With Crisp out and Youks riding the Lark 2000 around the bases, he needs to show a bit of the gap power he advertised in SD. I was high on Loretta coming into the season and I think he'll turn it around, but this week would be a good time to start.
Manny obviously had a slow start, possibly due to his not realizing the season had started. A couple weeks back Johnny Pesky pulled him aside and using hand-puppets explained that it was time for Manny to play for real, and since then he's picked it up and his OPS is now around .900. Ortiz is doing what Ortiz does, but when Loretta and Manny are hitting it makes his job much easier.
Overall, this team is just not getting it done offensively. Let me shock everyone for a second. As of today, the Boston Red Sox have scored the fewest runs in the AL East. They have scored 117 runs to New York's 144. The Rays have 120, second-to-last. As a benchmark, Cleveland (largely thanks to the Sox) have scored 154 runs to lead the majors.
When you sign Alex Gonzalez, your runs scored figure is going to drop. He cannot hit - at all. When Coco returns, Loretta normalizes, and Manny gets hot this team will score runs, although fewer than last year because they have AGon in the nine-hole, and Dustan Mohr is getting PAs. Still, they will score runs. The idea of course is that their run differential stays the same or improves, and this is accomplished through, you guessed it, pitching and defense. Here is where we are seeing some disappointing figures.
Defense is not a pressing concern in the infield. Lowell's D has not been as advertised, as he has three errors already, and a starting-team-lowest .952 fielding percentage. Since he's hitting well it's a wash but this illustrates the unfortunate theme that Sox players are not playing to potential. Cora also has 3 errors, and he's only been in 6 games (he's a....ahhh....late inning defensive replacement). Still, Gonzalez has been stellar at short, and Loretta and Youks are capable.
Defense in the outfield is troubling right now, since Manny is Manny; Wile E Mo is, well, wow; and Trot is old and slow. Still, if it's cost us more than one game I'd be surprised.
Defense behind the plate is solid as usual when Tek is catching, but is apocalyptically bad when Josh Bard settles in. I am pretty sure there is an entire betting room in Vegas specializing in Knuckleball Keno (a new game every five seconds!) where you take odds on every pitch that Bard commits a passed ball. It is nearly impossible for the Sox to win when he is behind the plate. If guys aren't taking free bases on the 10 passed balls, they're swiping one of their 12 bags thus far - in only 7 games. Short story, Wake is 1-4. This needs to be addressed, or this team does not make the post-season, end of story.
Starting pitching is the thing that concerns me thus far. Pitching stats for 2006 are below:
| Player | W | L | ERA | G | IP | H | WHIP | BB | SO | HRR |
| C Schilling | 4 | 1 | 2.88 | 6 | 40.2 | 32 | 0.97 | 7 | 40 | 0.90 |
| T Wakefield | 1 | 4 | 3.90 | 5 | 32.1 | 30 | 1.28 | 11 | 18 | 0.84 |
| J Beckett | 3 | 1 | 4.50 | 5 | 32 | 27 | 1.25 | 13 | 21 | 1.69 |
| M Clement | 2 | 2 | 6.14 | 5 | 29.1 | 37 | 1.79 | 15 | 22 | 0.93 |
| L DiNardo | 0 | 1 | 7.36 | 5 | 18.1 | 31 | 1.99 | 5 | 8 | 1.99 |
| K Foulke | 2 | 1 | 3.71 | 13 | 17 | 11 | 0.76 | 2 | 16 | 0.53 |
| J Papelbon | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 13 | 14.1 | 7 | 0.64 | 2 | 14 | 0.00 |
| R Seanez | 0 | 0 | 8.68 | 9 | 9.1 | 12 | 1.98 | 6 | 14 | 2.97 |
| M Timlin | 2 | 0 | 1.93 | 11 | 9.1 | 11 | 1.76 | 5 | 6 | 0.99 |
| J Tavarez | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 8 | 8.1 | 9 | 1.36 | 2 | 6 | 2.22 |
| D Wells | 0 | 1 | 15.75 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 2.75 | 1 | 1 | 6.75 |
| J Van Buren | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 |
| M Delcarmen | 0 | 0 | 13.50 | 3 | 2.2 | 8 | 4.09 | 1 | 2 | 0.00 |
| D Riske | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 |
What jumps out? With the exception of Schilling, the starters are not controlling the strike zone, and giving up far too many walks. In the cases of Beckett and Dinardo, mistakes are turning into home runs. Wake is giving up runs since Bard can't catch him (his WHIP and HRR are normal for him), and Clement simply sucks no matter how you slice it. With Fatty McFatFat on the DL, this is not a bedtime story for Sox fans. The much-vaunted Red Sox pitching staff is not off to a strong start (well, except for Arroyo). I know what some of you may be thinking, and before you ask, Jon Lester is not off to a strong start either - he is 0-4 with a 6.94 ERA in Pawtucket, and needs some more seasoning. It goes without saying, I mean really, it does, but these guys have got to throw strikes and get ahead in the count. This team cannot win without quality starts.
The bullpen looks good - Papelbon is a beast and Foulke is coming back - with the exception of the aforementioned Rudy Seanez who quite frankly is the anti-christ. He should be DFA'd very shortly. I will take anyone from Pawtucket, or Portland, or the Stop & Shop over Rudy. I would prefer to see Mad Jeep pitch a couple innings then leap into the stands to sucker-punch a toddler than see Rudy Seanez pitch in a Red Sox uniform ever again. That is all I will say about that.
So this is a big week for your 2006 Red Sox. In the division they are currently 8-7, and as of today are in second place behind the hated Spanks who have gone 7-3 over the past 10 games. The MFYs come in for a quick 2-game kiss, then the Jays (who are 4-2 vs. the Sox this year) come in and Halladay goes against Clement for the Rolaids Spring Classic. Then Baltimore, and our nemesis the otherwise-crappy Rodrigo Lopez, comes in for a visit. There are no easy games for this team. If the Sox do not step up in several key areas, it could be a long, hard spring.
God, I missed baseball.
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
ta-DAAAAHHH!!!
Wow. I hope everyone is enjoying April 11th, 2006, know from this day forward as Baseball Clown Car Day. It's not over yet, but we've had all sorts of good things happening!
First off, mere seconds after Joe Soxfan pronounces Mike Lowell dead by pointing at him and yelling "yah dead Lowell!" Mike goes 4-4 against Toronto with three doubles. Not only that, but he hits to all fields. Apparently rumors of his demise are premature.
Later in that same game Tito does me a personal favor and inserts Wily Mo Pena Super Genius into right field to replace the - gasp! - hamstrung Trot Nixon. Using his superior intellect WMPSG waits until Foulkie gives up his signature 340-ft. fly ball out, but turns the tables on everyone by pushing it into the bullpen for a homer. This move, which WMPSG also styled on last season as a Red, is now known simply as the Super Genius. Again, Wily Mo is the gift that keeps on giving. If he did not have the same name as a beloved cartoon character, he'd be dead now.
After the game is long over, the hits keep coming. Adam Stern played his second game today in place of the injured Crisp, going 1-4 and knocking in two runs with a double while also stealing third. It's only two games but he's doing pretty well and one would think this is a somewhat notable MLB story. Not John Kruk though - during the primetime baseball segment of ESPNNews he calls Stern " Adam Stein". Adam, call your mom, she'll be so proud!
Meanwhile, down in New York, Andy Sisco delivers a pitch to Derek Jeter that is such an unbelievable gift that during the slo-mo replay you can actually see Jeter's eyes widening in shock. A high cutter with absolutely nothing on it, moving right up into the eyes - Derek's absolute favorite pitch. His facial expression as he hitches in shock, then deposits it into the left-field stands, is priceless. The pitch is so pathetic that you can feel Jeter pitying the poor bastard even as he strokes it out. Kansas City is just sad. At least they're not owned by Jeffrey Loria, I guess.
Lastly, my personal favorite. Bronson Arroyo hits his second home run in the past week against Glendon Rusch, the same guy that he hit his first career home run against a mere six days ago. Not only does he go yard on Rusch, he goes STREET! Somewhere in Wrigleyville a drunk is explaining to disbelieving onlookers that he was brained by Bronson Arroyo's second dinger of the week. Not good times, great times!
I'm giddy. With Nixon injured I think we're going to get to see more of the Super Genius, and more of Stern, my personal prospect. Two great tastes that go great together. Bring it on.
First off, mere seconds after Joe Soxfan pronounces Mike Lowell dead by pointing at him and yelling "yah dead Lowell!" Mike goes 4-4 against Toronto with three doubles. Not only that, but he hits to all fields. Apparently rumors of his demise are premature.
Later in that same game Tito does me a personal favor and inserts Wily Mo Pena Super Genius into right field to replace the - gasp! - hamstrung Trot Nixon. Using his superior intellect WMPSG waits until Foulkie gives up his signature 340-ft. fly ball out, but turns the tables on everyone by pushing it into the bullpen for a homer. This move, which WMPSG also styled on last season as a Red, is now known simply as the Super Genius. Again, Wily Mo is the gift that keeps on giving. If he did not have the same name as a beloved cartoon character, he'd be dead now.
After the game is long over, the hits keep coming. Adam Stern played his second game today in place of the injured Crisp, going 1-4 and knocking in two runs with a double while also stealing third. It's only two games but he's doing pretty well and one would think this is a somewhat notable MLB story. Not John Kruk though - during the primetime baseball segment of ESPNNews he calls Stern " Adam Stein". Adam, call your mom, she'll be so proud!
Meanwhile, down in New York, Andy Sisco delivers a pitch to Derek Jeter that is such an unbelievable gift that during the slo-mo replay you can actually see Jeter's eyes widening in shock. A high cutter with absolutely nothing on it, moving right up into the eyes - Derek's absolute favorite pitch. His facial expression as he hitches in shock, then deposits it into the left-field stands, is priceless. The pitch is so pathetic that you can feel Jeter pitying the poor bastard even as he strokes it out. Kansas City is just sad. At least they're not owned by Jeffrey Loria, I guess.
Lastly, my personal favorite. Bronson Arroyo hits his second home run in the past week against Glendon Rusch, the same guy that he hit his first career home run against a mere six days ago. Not only does he go yard on Rusch, he goes STREET! Somewhere in Wrigleyville a drunk is explaining to disbelieving onlookers that he was brained by Bronson Arroyo's second dinger of the week. Not good times, great times!
I'm giddy. With Nixon injured I think we're going to get to see more of the Super Genius, and more of Stern, my personal prospect. Two great tastes that go great together. Bring it on.
Coco, we hardly knew ye.
This is today's 10-minute post. I am in a hurry to drive an hour in a monsoon, because I like that sort of thing.
As everyone knows by now, Crisp has broken a finger while sliding awkwardly into third base. He'll be out anywhere from two weeks to a month or so. Some of you will recall the incredible animosity Manny generated when he pulled the exact same stunt a couple years back. Crisp is getting a flyer here, for a few reasons:
You hate to lose Crisp at this point because he just came out of the gate on fire, but if Stern performs the Sox are in an solid position for 2007. Nixon's ticket is up and Stern has a cannon arm if he has to play RF. Unless he shows more power than I think he has though, I see him more as a trading chip, since the Sox are historically not a team to build around multiple players of that type, and coming up you've got a lot of those (Ellsbury, Lowrie, Pedroia, Corsaletti). If Stern is ready for primetime, I suspect we won't keep him long. I could be wrong though; the guys at ST have been saying that like Ichiro he puts on a long ball show every batting practice.
I am a big fan of Stern, obviously. I'd love to see him mature into a 20/80/30 (HR/RBI/STL) guy and patrol Fenway's outfield for a few years. We need more Canadians - I am always saying that. Ask anyone.
NOTICE:
As most of you who have known me some time will attest, I controll all sports, by forcing players and teams to do the exact opposite of whatever I predict. Please note how my earlier posts have turned Zito and the As around, heated Youkilis' bat up, and in general made all readers wonder if I am not a total idiot. As it turns out, I am a total idiot, it's just that that post is not an indicator of my idiocy, it's just a sampling of a gift I have.
As everyone knows by now, Crisp has broken a finger while sliding awkwardly into third base. He'll be out anywhere from two weeks to a month or so. Some of you will recall the incredible animosity Manny generated when he pulled the exact same stunt a couple years back. Crisp is getting a flyer here, for a few reasons:
- He is generally athletic. When not hitting Manny looks like the type of guy that if you saw him running with scissors, you would simply assume he'd be dead inside 3 minutes. Crisp is getting the benefit of the doubt here in that people are assuming it was simply a fluke play.
- It's extremely early in the season, and the Sox have been winning. This makes everything a little easier to take.
- Now people can indulge in the guilty pleasure of seeing what Adam Stern has without cheating on Coco. I dare not even hope the unhope-able, that we could see one-man circus Wily Mo Pena Super Genius roaming center field like the Sasquatch. I would pay almost any price for that ticket ("Sometimes, when they hit the ball hard, I don't know where it is going").
You hate to lose Crisp at this point because he just came out of the gate on fire, but if Stern performs the Sox are in an solid position for 2007. Nixon's ticket is up and Stern has a cannon arm if he has to play RF. Unless he shows more power than I think he has though, I see him more as a trading chip, since the Sox are historically not a team to build around multiple players of that type, and coming up you've got a lot of those (Ellsbury, Lowrie, Pedroia, Corsaletti). If Stern is ready for primetime, I suspect we won't keep him long. I could be wrong though; the guys at ST have been saying that like Ichiro he puts on a long ball show every batting practice.
I am a big fan of Stern, obviously. I'd love to see him mature into a 20/80/30 (HR/RBI/STL) guy and patrol Fenway's outfield for a few years. We need more Canadians - I am always saying that. Ask anyone.
NOTICE:
As most of you who have known me some time will attest, I controll all sports, by forcing players and teams to do the exact opposite of whatever I predict. Please note how my earlier posts have turned Zito and the As around, heated Youkilis' bat up, and in general made all readers wonder if I am not a total idiot. As it turns out, I am a total idiot, it's just that that post is not an indicator of my idiocy, it's just a sampling of a gift I have.
Thursday, April 06, 2006
Giddy Up!
First off, is there any better feeling in the world than being wrong about something you really wanted to be wrong about, even temporarily? Props to the A's for taking two of three from the Spanks! Granted, they had more help than anyone could possibly imagine, but still. Sometimes a little luck is all a team needs to start feeling good about their chances.
On to the barn-burner at Texas last night. This is a game that you have to feel pretty pumped about winning, because while you watched it you were repeatedly punching yourself in the nuts. Beckett threw about 70 (68?) pitches through the first 4 innings, and could not locate his curveball to save his life. Watching every at-bat go to 3-2 was nerve-wracking, and I was certain Texas was going to open it up every inning until Beckett got pissed and started mowing people down. His thing seems to be that he needs to be pissed to pitch well, which is fine. In fact, in the historically Irish-dominated hearts of Red Sox nation, anger is the only acceptable emotion - he's going to be a fan favorite in no time.
The real story of the game last night was the bats - or lack thereof. Given Beckett's propensity towards pitching out of trouble, you sort of figured he'd be able to keep us close after the first few escapes. The ongoing issue was - would the Sox ever get on the board? The Rangers had their much-heralded ace that noone's ever heard of Kameron Loe on the mound, and all he did was induce ground balls. Of his 23 outs, 19 came via the ground ball, including two double-plays by Big Papi, who had one of his worst days as a professional hitter (and maybe ever). His final line? 0-4, 2 DPs, 1K, 4 LOB. No bueno.
In the end of course, good things happened. Nixon was able to solve Loe for a dinger on a mistake pitch, and it was enough. Manny had another assist from left field on a Sveum-esque put-out at home plate on Teixeira, who is quite frankly appallingly, embarrassingly slow of foot. Loretta continues to prove his worth, and was the only guy who was consistently on base. Snow hit the ball on the nuts three times, albeit in the end had nothing to show for it. Beckett settled down, and he and Tek seemingly got on the same page, to finish the 6th and 7th innings strong. While Timlin looked pretty damn awful (shocker!) Paps came in to close the game out with a 1-2-3 9th including two Ks.
Anytime you take two of three on the road you can be pretty pleased, even if it is the Rangers. Still, there are some questions remaining at this point. First off, Manny looks terrible. He is hitting .100. He's taking his pitches and getting on base, but he just looks lost on his cuts. One has to assume he'll figure it out, but if he's not hitting things get decidedly easier for other teams. Ditto Youkilis, who is below the Mendoza line still. Tito is a guy who likes to stick with his guys so Youks will get his at-bats, but with Snow making great contact this is something to watch. Let me say this again: as much as I like Youks, Snow has plenty left and I have no problem with him at first nearly every day. The KB, less so.
On the pitching side of things, there are some same-old same-olds. Foulke was passed up for Paps last night, which is indicative of his current situation at less than 100%. This is something that hopefully works itself out over a ration of low-lev situations, but we'll see. Timlin looks like, well, Timlin - too many balls in play, too many base-runners. Eventually his rate of return will fall below what is acceptable for a set-up man in close games. Hopefully that happens next year, but the off-season acquisitions point towards the FO hedging their bets on that. He's on a short leash. Luckily we do now have the simply abysmal David Riske, and of course The Jeep, currently serving time in baseball's Crazy Jail. If Foulke is healthy, and Paps remains in the bullpen, the writing is on the wall for at least one of these guys come summer.
Lastly, but most importantly, will Wake and Bard be able to get on the same page? Bard looked handicapped in game two of the series. and Wake seems to be a guy who needs to know that his pitches aren't going to skate to the backstop. One unsubstantiated rumor mentioned on SOSH has a scout for one MLB club stating that the Sox will have a new backup catcher in the next few weeks. I'm not sure I buy this - how can it help to bring in someone with a completely new learning curve? I would prefer to give Bard some time to settle in before I shoot him, but it may well be that Wakefield can tell whether a guys has the hands necessary to catch the knuckler and has already pulled the plug. Who knows?
If Bard goes and Riske continues to suck like there's no tomorrow, Crisp becomes a very expensive centerfielder. Fortunately, if he continues to play like he has, I doubt you'll hear too many complaints, even from me.
WHERE ARE THEY NOW?
Let's see how our dearly departed are doing, shall we?
Hmm. The Small Sample Size sign is on, but these guys seem to be enjoying their new homes. I'm sure everyone is well aware of Bronson's big game yesterday (win and HR to help his cause), so thus far in 2006, it's a good year to have left Boston. Good. I for one wish them well.
Much more baseball to be played, many more stories to watch, many questions to be answered. It's April, and life is good. Giddy up.
On to the barn-burner at Texas last night. This is a game that you have to feel pretty pumped about winning, because while you watched it you were repeatedly punching yourself in the nuts. Beckett threw about 70 (68?) pitches through the first 4 innings, and could not locate his curveball to save his life. Watching every at-bat go to 3-2 was nerve-wracking, and I was certain Texas was going to open it up every inning until Beckett got pissed and started mowing people down. His thing seems to be that he needs to be pissed to pitch well, which is fine. In fact, in the historically Irish-dominated hearts of Red Sox nation, anger is the only acceptable emotion - he's going to be a fan favorite in no time.
The real story of the game last night was the bats - or lack thereof. Given Beckett's propensity towards pitching out of trouble, you sort of figured he'd be able to keep us close after the first few escapes. The ongoing issue was - would the Sox ever get on the board? The Rangers had their much-heralded ace that noone's ever heard of Kameron Loe on the mound, and all he did was induce ground balls. Of his 23 outs, 19 came via the ground ball, including two double-plays by Big Papi, who had one of his worst days as a professional hitter (and maybe ever). His final line? 0-4, 2 DPs, 1K, 4 LOB. No bueno.
In the end of course, good things happened. Nixon was able to solve Loe for a dinger on a mistake pitch, and it was enough. Manny had another assist from left field on a Sveum-esque put-out at home plate on Teixeira, who is quite frankly appallingly, embarrassingly slow of foot. Loretta continues to prove his worth, and was the only guy who was consistently on base. Snow hit the ball on the nuts three times, albeit in the end had nothing to show for it. Beckett settled down, and he and Tek seemingly got on the same page, to finish the 6th and 7th innings strong. While Timlin looked pretty damn awful (shocker!) Paps came in to close the game out with a 1-2-3 9th including two Ks.
Anytime you take two of three on the road you can be pretty pleased, even if it is the Rangers. Still, there are some questions remaining at this point. First off, Manny looks terrible. He is hitting .100. He's taking his pitches and getting on base, but he just looks lost on his cuts. One has to assume he'll figure it out, but if he's not hitting things get decidedly easier for other teams. Ditto Youkilis, who is below the Mendoza line still. Tito is a guy who likes to stick with his guys so Youks will get his at-bats, but with Snow making great contact this is something to watch. Let me say this again: as much as I like Youks, Snow has plenty left and I have no problem with him at first nearly every day. The KB, less so.
On the pitching side of things, there are some same-old same-olds. Foulke was passed up for Paps last night, which is indicative of his current situation at less than 100%. This is something that hopefully works itself out over a ration of low-lev situations, but we'll see. Timlin looks like, well, Timlin - too many balls in play, too many base-runners. Eventually his rate of return will fall below what is acceptable for a set-up man in close games. Hopefully that happens next year, but the off-season acquisitions point towards the FO hedging their bets on that. He's on a short leash. Luckily we do now have the simply abysmal David Riske, and of course The Jeep, currently serving time in baseball's Crazy Jail. If Foulke is healthy, and Paps remains in the bullpen, the writing is on the wall for at least one of these guys come summer.
Lastly, but most importantly, will Wake and Bard be able to get on the same page? Bard looked handicapped in game two of the series. and Wake seems to be a guy who needs to know that his pitches aren't going to skate to the backstop. One unsubstantiated rumor mentioned on SOSH has a scout for one MLB club stating that the Sox will have a new backup catcher in the next few weeks. I'm not sure I buy this - how can it help to bring in someone with a completely new learning curve? I would prefer to give Bard some time to settle in before I shoot him, but it may well be that Wakefield can tell whether a guys has the hands necessary to catch the knuckler and has already pulled the plug. Who knows?
If Bard goes and Riske continues to suck like there's no tomorrow, Crisp becomes a very expensive centerfielder. Fortunately, if he continues to play like he has, I doubt you'll hear too many complaints, even from me.
WHERE ARE THEY NOW?
Let's see how our dearly departed are doing, shall we?
| AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | OBP | SLG | AVG | |
| J Damon | 15 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.438 | 0.600 | 0.400 |
| Hanley | 13 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.500 | 0.692 | 0.462 |
| Millar | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.556 | 0.625 | 0.500 |
| Mueller | 11 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.571 | 0.545 | 0.545 |
Hmm. The Small Sample Size sign is on, but these guys seem to be enjoying their new homes. I'm sure everyone is well aware of Bronson's big game yesterday (win and HR to help his cause), so thus far in 2006, it's a good year to have left Boston. Good. I for one wish them well.
Much more baseball to be played, many more stories to watch, many questions to be answered. It's April, and life is good. Giddy up.
Tuesday, April 04, 2006
Won, and Oh...
The Sox came out of the gate strong yesterday, breaking an unfortunate streak of five consecutive opening day losses with a sold win against a Texas Rangers team that simply cannot pitch. A team that plays in a ballpark that was designed for only two things:
1) Proximity to maximum possible number of strip clubs
2) Hitters
One game is obviously far too early to make a judgment, but it smells a little bit like those pundits who argued that Kevin Millwood wasn't the answer may have been right. At least he's not Chan Ho Park.
On the other hand, the once-and-future-king Curt Schilling looked really tough on the mound in his first real start since fully rehabbing his much-storied Frankenankle. He showed good velocity (depending on who you listen to, he was in the mid-90s on the heater) and location, and refrained from striking anyone in the skull. You have to be pleased.
The Red Sox internet community is agog with wonder at the one-two combination of Crisp and Loretta. Crisp continues to impress with his speed, if not his mathematics, and Loretta is proving that last year's downturn was simply injury-related. By the time pitchers get to Big Papi and Manny they'll have already had a pretty rough time of it. Coco also has shown flashes of brilliance in the field, although it's too early to assess his long term performance there. I suppose one could make the argument that it's far easier to play center when you know that you have to get to every single ball you possibly can. I am certain it never crosses his mind that either Nixon or Manny will be tracking down balls to the gap, or even in many cases to right or left field.
Offensive question mark (in the movie of his life he was to be played by Frank Gorshin until Frank's untimely death) Mike Lowell went yard yesterday and appears to be gaining confidence at the plate. Count me among those who think he can regain some semblance of his former hitting ability. I don't think we'll see him in his prime, or producing at a $9M a year clip, but he will produce. I like him on this team; I think it's a good fit.
Youks continues to refuse to hit, and has vowed that he will not hit again until people stop referring to him as the "Greek God of Walks". He has stated on numerous occasions that he does not like the moniker, partly because he is not Greek, but more importantly because it hurts his feelings and sometimes makes him cry. Nevertheless, with a (in my opinion) perfectly capable JT Snow behind him and a Korean behemoth waiting in the wings to eat Fenway Park, he needs to step it up.
AGon was a pleasant surprise yesterday, going the other way for a couple of hits. I assume this approach is the brainchild of Papa Jack in an effort to help him see the ball a bit better, and prevent him from winning his "pulled balls" contest with Lowell. If it continues I think we'll see his performance at the plate improve overall (not saying much). His defense continues to sparkle, although his baserunning leaves a wee bit to be desired, per yesterday's gaffe.
Foulke did not look good but was quoted as saying he was working on his fastball given the comfortable lead, and just wasn't spotting it well. The jury is still out on Foulke, but thus far its still looking like "12 Angry Men". Papelbon mowed through his inning in 13 pitches, and has the make-up of a guy who will breathe down Foulkie's neck as the season gets warm.
For the most part the team performed as designed, and that is a great sign. The pieces have looked pretty good in the abstract, but we want to see how they fit together, and the early returns are encouraging. Time will tell, but this team looks to be built to contend.
AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT....
Leaving the Sox for a bit, I will share some thoughts on the debacle that was the Yanks - Os game last night. First off, no one should be surprised. Zito's ERA was 6.60 last April and 6.83 the April before that. Those numbers are so staggeringly bad I don't even have to look any deeper. His ERA against the MFYs for 2005 was 7.59, for 2004 it was 5.79 (in an odd juxtaposition). As a team the Spanks are hitting over .300 against Barry over the past two seasons. There is, in fact, not one shred of evidence available to mankind that states that Barry Zito would not get annihiliated last night. And lo! He got annihilated.
In spite of the utter lack of surprise with which I greeted this outcome, this was still a brutal game to watch. Oakland's recent history of rolling over against the Yankees is really starting to piss me off. They were 2-7 against the MFYs last season. This trend continues. The worst part of it is you can actually see them losing the game while they're playing it, in their body language and facial expressions. With Tejada gone the team lacks an offensive leader. I think they're hoping Frank Thomas will be that guy, and he made some strides last night by taking Johnson deep, but this is why you simply cannot bet on the As to win anything. They have no fire at the plate.
Pitching and defense wins championships is all well and good, but that assumes you can score runs against good teams, and they don't; not consistently. They averaged fewer than 4 runs per game last year against the Yanks, Angels, and Cleveland, and exactly 4 runs a game against Minnesota. They averaged 5.7 runs per game agains the Sox, but scored 35 of their 58 runs in two games (of 10) in which the Sox pitching went in the crapper. The aberration last year was against Chicago AL, where they went 7-2 and averaged almost 6 runs per game. Overall, I would describe that as a "nice to have". Maybe Billy feels they can keep other teams to three runs a game with shocking consistency. I'm not a believer.
On the other side of the diamond you have the most hate-able Yankee team in my lifetime. Let's take a look at this roster full of gems:
At any rate, one of the reasons I'm happy with the 2006 Sox is that this squad's focus on professionalism over Idiocy. Even I was sick of the Idiots and their media presence. I want this team to play baseball. I want them to win, but mostly I want them to play good baseball, and represent Boston in a manner I can be proud of. I think this team (Wells scares me a little) will focus on those things, and I think this is a team that Boston fans will remember fondly, World Championship or not. It's a little easier to enjoy the games now, isn't it? For that I will always thank the Idiots. I just won't miss them.
1) Proximity to maximum possible number of strip clubs
2) Hitters
One game is obviously far too early to make a judgment, but it smells a little bit like those pundits who argued that Kevin Millwood wasn't the answer may have been right. At least he's not Chan Ho Park.
On the other hand, the once-and-future-king Curt Schilling looked really tough on the mound in his first real start since fully rehabbing his much-storied Frankenankle. He showed good velocity (depending on who you listen to, he was in the mid-90s on the heater) and location, and refrained from striking anyone in the skull. You have to be pleased.
The Red Sox internet community is agog with wonder at the one-two combination of Crisp and Loretta. Crisp continues to impress with his speed, if not his mathematics, and Loretta is proving that last year's downturn was simply injury-related. By the time pitchers get to Big Papi and Manny they'll have already had a pretty rough time of it. Coco also has shown flashes of brilliance in the field, although it's too early to assess his long term performance there. I suppose one could make the argument that it's far easier to play center when you know that you have to get to every single ball you possibly can. I am certain it never crosses his mind that either Nixon or Manny will be tracking down balls to the gap, or even in many cases to right or left field.
Offensive question mark (in the movie of his life he was to be played by Frank Gorshin until Frank's untimely death) Mike Lowell went yard yesterday and appears to be gaining confidence at the plate. Count me among those who think he can regain some semblance of his former hitting ability. I don't think we'll see him in his prime, or producing at a $9M a year clip, but he will produce. I like him on this team; I think it's a good fit.
Youks continues to refuse to hit, and has vowed that he will not hit again until people stop referring to him as the "Greek God of Walks". He has stated on numerous occasions that he does not like the moniker, partly because he is not Greek, but more importantly because it hurts his feelings and sometimes makes him cry. Nevertheless, with a (in my opinion) perfectly capable JT Snow behind him and a Korean behemoth waiting in the wings to eat Fenway Park, he needs to step it up.
AGon was a pleasant surprise yesterday, going the other way for a couple of hits. I assume this approach is the brainchild of Papa Jack in an effort to help him see the ball a bit better, and prevent him from winning his "pulled balls" contest with Lowell. If it continues I think we'll see his performance at the plate improve overall (not saying much). His defense continues to sparkle, although his baserunning leaves a wee bit to be desired, per yesterday's gaffe.
Foulke did not look good but was quoted as saying he was working on his fastball given the comfortable lead, and just wasn't spotting it well. The jury is still out on Foulke, but thus far its still looking like "12 Angry Men". Papelbon mowed through his inning in 13 pitches, and has the make-up of a guy who will breathe down Foulkie's neck as the season gets warm.
For the most part the team performed as designed, and that is a great sign. The pieces have looked pretty good in the abstract, but we want to see how they fit together, and the early returns are encouraging. Time will tell, but this team looks to be built to contend.
AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT....
Leaving the Sox for a bit, I will share some thoughts on the debacle that was the Yanks - Os game last night. First off, no one should be surprised. Zito's ERA was 6.60 last April and 6.83 the April before that. Those numbers are so staggeringly bad I don't even have to look any deeper. His ERA against the MFYs for 2005 was 7.59, for 2004 it was 5.79 (in an odd juxtaposition). As a team the Spanks are hitting over .300 against Barry over the past two seasons. There is, in fact, not one shred of evidence available to mankind that states that Barry Zito would not get annihiliated last night. And lo! He got annihilated.
In spite of the utter lack of surprise with which I greeted this outcome, this was still a brutal game to watch. Oakland's recent history of rolling over against the Yankees is really starting to piss me off. They were 2-7 against the MFYs last season. This trend continues. The worst part of it is you can actually see them losing the game while they're playing it, in their body language and facial expressions. With Tejada gone the team lacks an offensive leader. I think they're hoping Frank Thomas will be that guy, and he made some strides last night by taking Johnson deep, but this is why you simply cannot bet on the As to win anything. They have no fire at the plate.
Pitching and defense wins championships is all well and good, but that assumes you can score runs against good teams, and they don't; not consistently. They averaged fewer than 4 runs per game last year against the Yanks, Angels, and Cleveland, and exactly 4 runs a game against Minnesota. They averaged 5.7 runs per game agains the Sox, but scored 35 of their 58 runs in two games (of 10) in which the Sox pitching went in the crapper. The aberration last year was against Chicago AL, where they went 7-2 and averaged almost 6 runs per game. Overall, I would describe that as a "nice to have". Maybe Billy feels they can keep other teams to three runs a game with shocking consistency. I'm not a believer.
On the other side of the diamond you have the most hate-able Yankee team in my lifetime. Let's take a look at this roster full of gems:
- Randy Johnson: An absolute piece of shit, probably the worst human being in the Bigs.
- Gary Sheffield: Well, he's a proven cheater, holds his own front office hostage by refusing to hustle when he wants a trade or refusing to hustle if he is traded, and hates everyone, even his own teammates. Oh, yeah, and he assaults fans. A career criminal.
- Jason Giambi: More pathetic than hate-able, but a proven cheater whose every MLB accomplishment is tainted. Has never taken an at-bat naturally.
- A-Rod: No one on earth likes this guy. Cheated on national television, got caught, and was unrepentent, because he's better than you. Just ask him - he's better than you.
- Indian Name "Throws Like Girl": Johnny Damon has earned his turncoat stripes, and people frown on that. They start frowning about 2 seconds after you claim that you were being "disrespected" for $10 Mil a year. According to that math, 99.9999% of all Americans are living in a constant state of disrespect.
- Jorge Posada: This is probably just me, because he looks like an effeminate dashboard troll. Still, that is not that likeable.
At any rate, one of the reasons I'm happy with the 2006 Sox is that this squad's focus on professionalism over Idiocy. Even I was sick of the Idiots and their media presence. I want this team to play baseball. I want them to win, but mostly I want them to play good baseball, and represent Boston in a manner I can be proud of. I think this team (Wells scares me a little) will focus on those things, and I think this is a team that Boston fans will remember fondly, World Championship or not. It's a little easier to enjoy the games now, isn't it? For that I will always thank the Idiots. I just won't miss them.
Wednesday, March 29, 2006
Ladies and Gentlemen, Your 2006 Red Sox! Probably.
Today we get right down to it. You can view the mostly complete active roster here. These are the guys who will be wearing the shirts we root for in 2006.
Obviously there will be a change or two; almost certainly there will be with respect to Stern once he satisfies the Rule 5 requirements and gets sent down to AAA to play everyday. Wells will start the season on the DL, and will replace Dinardo when he returns. If Mohr accepts assignment to Pawtucket he could be called back up when Stern is demoted, although he probably would not play barring injury. Harris is a better bet in my mind with his speed - he could be this year's Dave Roberts - and because his contract allows him to leave the team if he has not spent any ML time in April.
In terms of the non-roster guys optioned to AAA you have to be pretty pleased. Durrington has shown tremendous versatility and is an Aussie, so you know he can booze. Enrique Wilson is a friend of Manny's and that always has entertainment value, not to mention he has some mentoring aspects that could benefit the Sox' young infielders. There is some appeal to shysty Mike Holtz as a LOOGY; he has looked fairly good in ST, with 13 Ks in 9.2 innings and a 1.33 WHIP. Of course, there are no more damning words in the sports lexicon than "looked good in spring training", but still.
Overall, and I've said this before, this team looks good on paper. This has been an exciting few weeks in getting to this team though. In typical 2006 offseason fashion, there had to be some drama.
The first shoe to drop was the trade for Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius, as we have covered already. This hurt Mohr, and of course we all feel badly for him, but he is not a super genius, nor does he hit the ball far away. At least, not by WMPSG's standards. I suppose a lot of people would argue this hurt Arroyo too, but I feel this move helps his career (his baseball career). As I have stated before, from a pure entertainment value perspective, Wily Mo is the greatest acquisition of the decade.
The second shoe to drop was the waiver claim of Korean behemoth Hee Seop-Choi, a name which in Korean means "behemoth". Choi is a hulking first baseman with some power whose best isolated skill is his batting eye, as evidenced by his career .349 OBP. Despite this, he also strikes out a ton, a weakness that according to the Korean national coach (read the article in Donga - that's right, the Donga need food - here) can be attributed to Choi's resistance to making adjustments to counter holes in his swing. This doesn't make me feel good, but the kid is just 27 and there is time for him to come to the table. Given his treatment by the Dodgers and LA media, I would think he has to understand this could be his last chance.
Walking barefoot out the door was embittered second baseman Tony Graffanino. I have to be honest, I think Graff was ill-used to some degree by the Sox in the whole arbitration play, and is just a guy who, overall, probably hasn't gotten a fair shake in the bigs. He came over to the Sox in the middle of a pennant race in Boston, and put up the following line while playing very solid defense:
I've heard people say that Graffanino is a utility guy only who isn't starter material, and last year was a career year that's an aberration, but I think that's bullshit. Last year was the most at-bats the guy's ever seen. He moves from Kansas City, baseball's burial above ground, to Boston, where every fan should be medicated, and ups his game to a new level. All this guy does is bring a professional attitude to the field, to the batter's box, and to the team, and perform. He should be starting for a half-dozen teams in the bigs on opening day, IMO. I suppose I should be thankful the Sox are not one of them though, as Loretta has the ability to tear it up if he's healthy this year.
One of the stories to watch over the course of the first half of the season will be the supposedly much-upgraded bullpen. I say supposedly because the word "supposedly" means "pertaining to things that I have doubts about". Foulke looks good so far but knees always worry me. Timlin at some point has to realize he's old. Riske has more or less...no, just more, actually...sucked thus far, against guys he should be getting out. And Tavarez is crazy as a shithouse rat.
All the other stuff will work itself out, in my opinion, so let's look at Taverez. First of all, his last name is Tavarez, not Tavares. Tavares was a 1970's disco band, best known for their inspired - but not at all relevent to crazy Julian - single "Heaven Must Be Missing An Angel". Butch, Chubby, Pooch, Ralph and Tiny would be horrified to learn that they were being lumped together with a sociopath who has the added burden of looking like the "Jeep" from the Popeye cartoon:
One has to wonder if we are looking at another Jay Payton situation in which a player's douchy personality outweighs the things he can do on the field. Now, granted, given that the Jeep is a much more highly leveraged player than Payton, he will have to be a much bigger douche (it's hard to believe I am typing this) to reach that tipping point, but given what he's shown us thus far, I don't think it's out of reach. Standing at home plate punching people as they arrive is not a subtle message that you are unwell, it is the Citgo sign of unwell messages.
So, the 2006 Boston Red Sox. If I had to pick one word to describe this team so far it would be "bemusing". I am always looking at them, thinking about all the possible outcomes. Bemusing is better than ambivalent, for sure, so we're making progress. I mean, I can't think about this team without worrying a little bit and chuckling a little bit at the same time. Of course, that behaviour would fit the description "ambivalent" pretty aptly, so I suppose really I have no point here.
What I think I'm trying to get at is that the 2006 Red Sox are a bit like a puzzle right now, a puzzle with many solutions, some more elegant that others. I'm reminded of the triangular peg solitaire Howard Johnson's used to place on the booth tables (I think Cracker Barrel had them as well). If you solve the puzzle with only one peg remaining you are a genius, with two remaining you are very very smart, and so on down to like seven remaining, at which point you are Julian Tavarez. I am eager to see how many pegs are remaining on Theo's puzzle come August, and I honestly have no idea what that number will be. But here's hoping it's one.
Obviously there will be a change or two; almost certainly there will be with respect to Stern once he satisfies the Rule 5 requirements and gets sent down to AAA to play everyday. Wells will start the season on the DL, and will replace Dinardo when he returns. If Mohr accepts assignment to Pawtucket he could be called back up when Stern is demoted, although he probably would not play barring injury. Harris is a better bet in my mind with his speed - he could be this year's Dave Roberts - and because his contract allows him to leave the team if he has not spent any ML time in April.
In terms of the non-roster guys optioned to AAA you have to be pretty pleased. Durrington has shown tremendous versatility and is an Aussie, so you know he can booze. Enrique Wilson is a friend of Manny's and that always has entertainment value, not to mention he has some mentoring aspects that could benefit the Sox' young infielders. There is some appeal to shysty Mike Holtz as a LOOGY; he has looked fairly good in ST, with 13 Ks in 9.2 innings and a 1.33 WHIP. Of course, there are no more damning words in the sports lexicon than "looked good in spring training", but still.
Overall, and I've said this before, this team looks good on paper. This has been an exciting few weeks in getting to this team though. In typical 2006 offseason fashion, there had to be some drama.
The first shoe to drop was the trade for Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius, as we have covered already. This hurt Mohr, and of course we all feel badly for him, but he is not a super genius, nor does he hit the ball far away. At least, not by WMPSG's standards. I suppose a lot of people would argue this hurt Arroyo too, but I feel this move helps his career (his baseball career). As I have stated before, from a pure entertainment value perspective, Wily Mo is the greatest acquisition of the decade.
The second shoe to drop was the waiver claim of Korean behemoth Hee Seop-Choi, a name which in Korean means "behemoth". Choi is a hulking first baseman with some power whose best isolated skill is his batting eye, as evidenced by his career .349 OBP. Despite this, he also strikes out a ton, a weakness that according to the Korean national coach (read the article in Donga - that's right, the Donga need food - here) can be attributed to Choi's resistance to making adjustments to counter holes in his swing. This doesn't make me feel good, but the kid is just 27 and there is time for him to come to the table. Given his treatment by the Dodgers and LA media, I would think he has to understand this could be his last chance.
Walking barefoot out the door was embittered second baseman Tony Graffanino. I have to be honest, I think Graff was ill-used to some degree by the Sox in the whole arbitration play, and is just a guy who, overall, probably hasn't gotten a fair shake in the bigs. He came over to the Sox in the middle of a pennant race in Boston, and put up the following line while playing very solid defense:
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | TB | OBP | SLG | AVG |
| 51 | 188 | 39 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 86 | 0.355 | 0.457 | 0.319 |
I've heard people say that Graffanino is a utility guy only who isn't starter material, and last year was a career year that's an aberration, but I think that's bullshit. Last year was the most at-bats the guy's ever seen. He moves from Kansas City, baseball's burial above ground, to Boston, where every fan should be medicated, and ups his game to a new level. All this guy does is bring a professional attitude to the field, to the batter's box, and to the team, and perform. He should be starting for a half-dozen teams in the bigs on opening day, IMO. I suppose I should be thankful the Sox are not one of them though, as Loretta has the ability to tear it up if he's healthy this year.
One of the stories to watch over the course of the first half of the season will be the supposedly much-upgraded bullpen. I say supposedly because the word "supposedly" means "pertaining to things that I have doubts about". Foulke looks good so far but knees always worry me. Timlin at some point has to realize he's old. Riske has more or less...no, just more, actually...sucked thus far, against guys he should be getting out. And Tavarez is crazy as a shithouse rat.
All the other stuff will work itself out, in my opinion, so let's look at Taverez. First of all, his last name is Tavarez, not Tavares. Tavares was a 1970's disco band, best known for their inspired - but not at all relevent to crazy Julian - single "Heaven Must Be Missing An Angel". Butch, Chubby, Pooch, Ralph and Tiny would be horrified to learn that they were being lumped together with a sociopath who has the added burden of looking like the "Jeep" from the Popeye cartoon:
One has to wonder if we are looking at another Jay Payton situation in which a player's douchy personality outweighs the things he can do on the field. Now, granted, given that the Jeep is a much more highly leveraged player than Payton, he will have to be a much bigger douche (it's hard to believe I am typing this) to reach that tipping point, but given what he's shown us thus far, I don't think it's out of reach. Standing at home plate punching people as they arrive is not a subtle message that you are unwell, it is the Citgo sign of unwell messages.
So, the 2006 Boston Red Sox. If I had to pick one word to describe this team so far it would be "bemusing". I am always looking at them, thinking about all the possible outcomes. Bemusing is better than ambivalent, for sure, so we're making progress. I mean, I can't think about this team without worrying a little bit and chuckling a little bit at the same time. Of course, that behaviour would fit the description "ambivalent" pretty aptly, so I suppose really I have no point here.
What I think I'm trying to get at is that the 2006 Red Sox are a bit like a puzzle right now, a puzzle with many solutions, some more elegant that others. I'm reminded of the triangular peg solitaire Howard Johnson's used to place on the booth tables (I think Cracker Barrel had them as well). If you solve the puzzle with only one peg remaining you are a genius, with two remaining you are very very smart, and so on down to like seven remaining, at which point you are Julian Tavarez. I am eager to see how many pegs are remaining on Theo's puzzle come August, and I honestly have no idea what that number will be. But here's hoping it's one.
Friday, March 24, 2006
Just for fun!
I swear to you, I am not doing this to rile anyone up, or because I am bitter. I am just happy for these guys whom I adopted as my own while we had them. Granted, in Marte's case, this was an incredibly short time, but still. I have a lot of love to give.
Here are the ST lines for Hanley, Marte and Petagine. Pay special attention to Petagine. This guy will probably STILL not get a spot on an ML club this year (hello - Kansas City?).
We all know that spring training doesn't count for crap (for reference, see Cesar Crespo). Nevertheless, it's great to see these guys succeed, right up until the day they come to Fenway and succeed their way past the Sox. Then, they suck.
Here are the ST lines for Hanley, Marte and Petagine. Pay special attention to Petagine. This guy will probably STILL not get a spot on an ML club this year (hello - Kansas City?).
| AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | TB | BB | SO | OBP | SLG | AVG | |
| Hanley | 48 | 13 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 0.420 | 0.750 | 0.396 |
| Marte | 35 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 0.368 | 0.571 | 0.343 |
| Petagine | 31 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 0.528 | 0.645 | 0.452 |
We all know that spring training doesn't count for crap (for reference, see Cesar Crespo). Nevertheless, it's great to see these guys succeed, right up until the day they come to Fenway and succeed their way past the Sox. Then, they suck.
Wednesday, March 22, 2006
A Gift.
I can't help it. I am getting more and more excited about the Wily Mo Pena acquisition each day. He is a gift, a gift that (I hope) keeps on giving. He's only been here two days - two days! - and look what we've got already:
1.) Every at-bat is a white-knuckle flight! Take today for example. In his first at-bat he was so badly embarrassed swinging at strike three he actually flung his bat into the stands. On his next at-bat, he went yard.
2.) He is eminently quotable. His first gem, and one for the ages: "Sometimes, when I hit a ball hard, I can hit it far away." Seriously. It is perfection its egomaniacal naivete, and also its, um, kind of scary hilarity.
3.) He already has a moniker, and it is all things good, and funny:
Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius.
I mean, we've all thought it, reading the box scores for Cincy or perusing the player stat pages, but he is now a Red Sox, and that means that one of MY players goes by the nickname Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius. This makes me happy beyond my ability to describe and if you're not getting it, well, I don't know what I can do for you. Just trust me; this is good.
1.) Every at-bat is a white-knuckle flight! Take today for example. In his first at-bat he was so badly embarrassed swinging at strike three he actually flung his bat into the stands. On his next at-bat, he went yard.
2.) He is eminently quotable. His first gem, and one for the ages: "Sometimes, when I hit a ball hard, I can hit it far away." Seriously. It is perfection its egomaniacal naivete, and also its, um, kind of scary hilarity.
3.) He already has a moniker, and it is all things good, and funny:
Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius.
I mean, we've all thought it, reading the box scores for Cincy or perusing the player stat pages, but he is now a Red Sox, and that means that one of MY players goes by the nickname Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius. This makes me happy beyond my ability to describe and if you're not getting it, well, I don't know what I can do for you. Just trust me; this is good.
Monday, March 20, 2006
Bit of a surprise for a Monday morning. I mean, I certainly knew that there was an excellent chance Arroyo would be dealt, but it always surprises me when things happen early on a Monday. Why aren't these people just drinking coffee and relating uninteresting tales from their early-to-mid-30s weekends?
I like the deal. In fact, I like it a lot. In my opinion, Arroyo was as good as he would ever get, and Pena has a ton of potential. In fact, looking at highlights of Wily Mo, one could argue that he IS a ton of potential. I am not trying to bag on Saturn Balls; I like him. The thing is, he couldn't get lefties out (at all - three year splits against him by LHH are .275/.338/.455), and he was getting killed every other start. His K/9 rate had dropped alarmingly from 2004 - 2005; guys were just figuring him out. If his curveball wasn't locating, it was over.
Pena on the other hand has some problems of his own, notably that for much of his MLB career he has never seen a pitch he didn't like. His astronimical (read: Cliff Johnson-esque) K rates support this crazy assertation. The thing is, and Theo alluded to this in today's report, he has had extremely poor developmental support in his career. He was signed to a major-league contract at 16 and had to be kept on the Reds' roster by age 20 since he was out of options, so he didn't really get a chance to develop as a player in his maturation years. Still, he seems to be improving, and despite his high K rates, his HR rates are very nearly the same as those of Big Papi and Manny over the last full season. He could very well be an utter monster by 2007. He played in the winter league in the DR, and his numbers were much much better: over 1.000 OPS and a 15:27 BB/K ratio. Granted, the sample size alert is going off all over the place, and the DR winter league is not the big leagues, but the kid seems to be confident that he can get better at taking pitches, and understands how that approach can help him. From the Dayton Daily News article (here):
"Pena said he can't wait for fans to witness the new, improved Wily Mo Pena, the one that developed this winter in the Dominican Republic Winter League.
'You'll see,' he said. 'Much different, much better. My swing is better. If I take the same approach I had in the D.R., everybody is going to see. More home runs. I was taking a lot of pitches, not swinging at bad pitches, getting my pitches to hit. And I was hitting balls all over the field.' "
Maybe I'm being a little too optimistic with Wily Mo, but c'mon. He spells his name with one "L". He spells it "wily", and that means cunning, and crafty, and according to one of my oldest postulates, kids always turn into their names. So I think he's going to get it.
The crappy part, kind of, is Arroyo's "hometown discount" deal. The Sox are going to get killed in the press for trading him after they said they probably wouldn't. As it actually turns out, Arroyo would have been the long man in the pen this year since Paps and Wells are most likely better. This means that in 2007 he'd have gone to arb and would probably have gotten less money than the current deal guarantees him for the next three. thanks to the trade he's in Cincy, sure, but at least he starts. Heck, in Cincy he's the #2. And even if he totally gags, he's making money for the next few years. So I'm not going to lose too much sleep over the "back-stabbing" angle, but I'm betting Shaughnessy goes ballistic, just because he can.
One last comment on this point. Ask yourself this: if you went in to sign the contract to buy a house and asked "does the foundation need repairs?" and the response was "probably not", would you sign? On some level, there has to be accountability on both sides.
Back to the deal...
The biggest detractors on this trade will hearken back to the old adage "you can never have too much pitching", and they have a point. The crux of this deal, in my opinion, hinges on two premises:
1) Dinardo gives you similar performance as your #6 starter / long-reliever (and can get lefties out, which Bronson could simply never do) until Lester is ready
2) Nixon is more likely to go down than the other players at risk in the deal(Schilling, Wells, Beckett) and once he does your market leverage is nil
Take that for what you will. Sitting here, analyzing this, I feel saddened that I am coming at it with such a business-like approach, because I think Arroyo is a good guy with class who loves the city of Boston, and that should count for something. Moreover, it bothers me that so few of the guys from 2004 are still around. The things is, what can you do? These guys are the 2006 Boston Red Sox, and we just have to embrace them. I just have to remember, we root for the laundry. Meet the new Sox; same as the old Sox.
I like the deal. In fact, I like it a lot. In my opinion, Arroyo was as good as he would ever get, and Pena has a ton of potential. In fact, looking at highlights of Wily Mo, one could argue that he IS a ton of potential. I am not trying to bag on Saturn Balls; I like him. The thing is, he couldn't get lefties out (at all - three year splits against him by LHH are .275/.338/.455), and he was getting killed every other start. His K/9 rate had dropped alarmingly from 2004 - 2005; guys were just figuring him out. If his curveball wasn't locating, it was over.
Pena on the other hand has some problems of his own, notably that for much of his MLB career he has never seen a pitch he didn't like. His astronimical (read: Cliff Johnson-esque) K rates support this crazy assertation. The thing is, and Theo alluded to this in today's report, he has had extremely poor developmental support in his career. He was signed to a major-league contract at 16 and had to be kept on the Reds' roster by age 20 since he was out of options, so he didn't really get a chance to develop as a player in his maturation years. Still, he seems to be improving, and despite his high K rates, his HR rates are very nearly the same as those of Big Papi and Manny over the last full season. He could very well be an utter monster by 2007. He played in the winter league in the DR, and his numbers were much much better: over 1.000 OPS and a 15:27 BB/K ratio. Granted, the sample size alert is going off all over the place, and the DR winter league is not the big leagues, but the kid seems to be confident that he can get better at taking pitches, and understands how that approach can help him. From the Dayton Daily News article (here):
"Pena said he can't wait for fans to witness the new, improved Wily Mo Pena, the one that developed this winter in the Dominican Republic Winter League.
'You'll see,' he said. 'Much different, much better. My swing is better. If I take the same approach I had in the D.R., everybody is going to see. More home runs. I was taking a lot of pitches, not swinging at bad pitches, getting my pitches to hit. And I was hitting balls all over the field.' "
Maybe I'm being a little too optimistic with Wily Mo, but c'mon. He spells his name with one "L". He spells it "wily", and that means cunning, and crafty, and according to one of my oldest postulates, kids always turn into their names. So I think he's going to get it.
The crappy part, kind of, is Arroyo's "hometown discount" deal. The Sox are going to get killed in the press for trading him after they said they probably wouldn't. As it actually turns out, Arroyo would have been the long man in the pen this year since Paps and Wells are most likely better. This means that in 2007 he'd have gone to arb and would probably have gotten less money than the current deal guarantees him for the next three. thanks to the trade he's in Cincy, sure, but at least he starts. Heck, in Cincy he's the #2. And even if he totally gags, he's making money for the next few years. So I'm not going to lose too much sleep over the "back-stabbing" angle, but I'm betting Shaughnessy goes ballistic, just because he can.
One last comment on this point. Ask yourself this: if you went in to sign the contract to buy a house and asked "does the foundation need repairs?" and the response was "probably not", would you sign? On some level, there has to be accountability on both sides.
Back to the deal...
The biggest detractors on this trade will hearken back to the old adage "you can never have too much pitching", and they have a point. The crux of this deal, in my opinion, hinges on two premises:
1) Dinardo gives you similar performance as your #6 starter / long-reliever (and can get lefties out, which Bronson could simply never do) until Lester is ready
2) Nixon is more likely to go down than the other players at risk in the deal(Schilling, Wells, Beckett) and once he does your market leverage is nil
Take that for what you will. Sitting here, analyzing this, I feel saddened that I am coming at it with such a business-like approach, because I think Arroyo is a good guy with class who loves the city of Boston, and that should count for something. Moreover, it bothers me that so few of the guys from 2004 are still around. The things is, what can you do? These guys are the 2006 Boston Red Sox, and we just have to embrace them. I just have to remember, we root for the laundry. Meet the new Sox; same as the old Sox.
Wednesday, March 15, 2006
The Cool of the Grass (Man)
Well, we're getting down to it, and typically, there are lots of fun spring training subplots taking shape. Seriously, what is not to love about the baseball season starting anew? New players to root for, underdog young guys playing their hearts out trying to make the squad, Canucks lighting the world on fire beating Team USA and still getting demoted to Pawtucket in 18 days - it's all beautiful.
I'll cover off on some of the highlights thus far in ST...
1) The "Put It On My Tab In Hell Feel-Good Story" of the spring of course is Captain Cavechrist's shoulder problem. I love Johnny, and I will forever appreciate his heroics in 2004, but he plays for the Douchebags now. Plus, he pulled the "direspected me" card. I hate that card. It is complete and utter bullshit. What I would like to hear is an athlete come out once and say "In hindsight, I suppose I could have signed that deal that only paid me $10 Million freaking dollars a year, because I don't really have a problem living on that kind of money, and I loved that town. I guess I over-respected myself."
2) Fatty McFatFat is staying, and he's happy to be staying and finishing his career with a championship-caliber team, but he's pissed. Color me surprised. When is Wells not pissed? Honestly, every time I read a quote from him in the paper, and he sounds happy, I look around to see if I'm being filmed. The upside here is that in a couple days Selig will do something to take his mind off his spot in the rotation.
3) This is probably related to #2 above, but we will almost certainly unload a starter at some point. Reports are that it will be Arroyo, Clement, or Wells (in alpha order).
I am actually pleased that Clement is the least likely to go, because I think he is going to have a good year. It is physically impossible to perform worse than he did in the ALCS last year. I could go out and put up the line he put up. So I think psychologically he's hit bottom, and can start dealing with his fear.
Arroyo is young, cheap, and healthy, but has been teed off on in every appearance thus far. Teed off on by AA, AAA, and AAAA players, mind you. At this point we might, MIGHT be able to get Chip Ambres back for him. Huzzah. I assume he'll get back on track, and will probably fetch the most in return.
Wells, historically speaking, will get the most play. He throws down a bunch of innings, is a lefty, and is a crafty veteran who knows how to win. He also hides ribs and tater tots in his glove during games so he can stay in shape (round) and is coming off a knee injury. Bad knees don't like supporting giant piles of fat, so there is a small question mark there.
I myself am for keeping these guys until June to see what pans out. Hopefully one or all have made headway, and we can assume that every Cubs and Yankees starter will be on the DL by then.
3) What do we do with the Italian Scullion, Tony Graffanino? He deserves to play everyday somewhere, just not here. The problem is, noone needs a 2B. Hell, Jim Bowden has two of them in the starting lineup. Tony deserves better than his current situation but the Sox need to get some value for him, and it will be tough to do so, given that noone would give up a draft pick to sign him as an FA.
4) We seem to have a small issue at third. Who will play there - Mike Lowell, or the white chalk outline of Mike Lowell's corpse? When Ken Rosenthal is saying things like you've lost your "body quickness", it's not good. He sits behind a desk for a living, so I'm guessing he's not playing ping pong for China in the next Olympics either. If he's saying you're slow, you might just be slow. Looking on the bright side here, at least this loss of quickness hasn't impacted Lowell's mind or spirit yet. That would be tragic.
5) Related to #4; if in fact Lowell is done, and assuming Youks has no problem stepping on the outline of his corpse all day, can JT Snow play first everyday? According to the aforementioned Rosenthal, JT, a professional athlete, "lacks athleticism"! You can clearly see how this would be a problem. It would be like me unearthing the dire news that Ken Rosenthal lacked "reportercism". How do they do their jobs? What I would do if I were Theo in this case would be to trade a pitcher for Soriano, then act outraged when Alfonso wouldn't switch to first base. That's how I would do it.
6) Keith Foulke is getting injections in his knees to prepare him for the season. If Foulke return to 2004 form (and his knees look like Lisa Rinna) that is huge for the Sox. If he accomplishes this without angering every Sox fan in the northeast, it will be even better. Boston players who hate Boston is sort of becoming a trouble spot. Boston players and fans who hate the Boston media, also a small problem.
Those are my key points for discussion at this point. Some people seem to be spending a lot of time worrying about who our back-up catcher will be, but I'm here to tell you, it's Josh Bard. Look around the league - there is no group of people on earth as homogeneous as the back-up catcher. They are like the security guards (also known as "red shirts") on Star Trek. They serve one purpose: that's what they do. When they go away, you don't care. Dougie was an extreme aberration here because he had one big year in 2004 that will remain an outlier in his statistical dossier forever. Also, there was the perception that he scored a lot of tail. Once we traded him, we were in the realm of the Bardhuckerty, and at that point it no longer matters.
I'm winded. Let's get to April!
I'll cover off on some of the highlights thus far in ST...
1) The "Put It On My Tab In Hell Feel-Good Story" of the spring of course is Captain Cavechrist's shoulder problem. I love Johnny, and I will forever appreciate his heroics in 2004, but he plays for the Douchebags now. Plus, he pulled the "direspected me" card. I hate that card. It is complete and utter bullshit. What I would like to hear is an athlete come out once and say "In hindsight, I suppose I could have signed that deal that only paid me $10 Million freaking dollars a year, because I don't really have a problem living on that kind of money, and I loved that town. I guess I over-respected myself."
2) Fatty McFatFat is staying, and he's happy to be staying and finishing his career with a championship-caliber team, but he's pissed. Color me surprised. When is Wells not pissed? Honestly, every time I read a quote from him in the paper, and he sounds happy, I look around to see if I'm being filmed. The upside here is that in a couple days Selig will do something to take his mind off his spot in the rotation.
3) This is probably related to #2 above, but we will almost certainly unload a starter at some point. Reports are that it will be Arroyo, Clement, or Wells (in alpha order).
I am actually pleased that Clement is the least likely to go, because I think he is going to have a good year. It is physically impossible to perform worse than he did in the ALCS last year. I could go out and put up the line he put up. So I think psychologically he's hit bottom, and can start dealing with his fear.
Arroyo is young, cheap, and healthy, but has been teed off on in every appearance thus far. Teed off on by AA, AAA, and AAAA players, mind you. At this point we might, MIGHT be able to get Chip Ambres back for him. Huzzah. I assume he'll get back on track, and will probably fetch the most in return.
Wells, historically speaking, will get the most play. He throws down a bunch of innings, is a lefty, and is a crafty veteran who knows how to win. He also hides ribs and tater tots in his glove during games so he can stay in shape (round) and is coming off a knee injury. Bad knees don't like supporting giant piles of fat, so there is a small question mark there.
I myself am for keeping these guys until June to see what pans out. Hopefully one or all have made headway, and we can assume that every Cubs and Yankees starter will be on the DL by then.
3) What do we do with the Italian Scullion, Tony Graffanino? He deserves to play everyday somewhere, just not here. The problem is, noone needs a 2B. Hell, Jim Bowden has two of them in the starting lineup. Tony deserves better than his current situation but the Sox need to get some value for him, and it will be tough to do so, given that noone would give up a draft pick to sign him as an FA.
4) We seem to have a small issue at third. Who will play there - Mike Lowell, or the white chalk outline of Mike Lowell's corpse? When Ken Rosenthal is saying things like you've lost your "body quickness", it's not good. He sits behind a desk for a living, so I'm guessing he's not playing ping pong for China in the next Olympics either. If he's saying you're slow, you might just be slow. Looking on the bright side here, at least this loss of quickness hasn't impacted Lowell's mind or spirit yet. That would be tragic.
5) Related to #4; if in fact Lowell is done, and assuming Youks has no problem stepping on the outline of his corpse all day, can JT Snow play first everyday? According to the aforementioned Rosenthal, JT, a professional athlete, "lacks athleticism"! You can clearly see how this would be a problem. It would be like me unearthing the dire news that Ken Rosenthal lacked "reportercism". How do they do their jobs? What I would do if I were Theo in this case would be to trade a pitcher for Soriano, then act outraged when Alfonso wouldn't switch to first base. That's how I would do it.
6) Keith Foulke is getting injections in his knees to prepare him for the season. If Foulke return to 2004 form (and his knees look like Lisa Rinna) that is huge for the Sox. If he accomplishes this without angering every Sox fan in the northeast, it will be even better. Boston players who hate Boston is sort of becoming a trouble spot. Boston players and fans who hate the Boston media, also a small problem.
Those are my key points for discussion at this point. Some people seem to be spending a lot of time worrying about who our back-up catcher will be, but I'm here to tell you, it's Josh Bard. Look around the league - there is no group of people on earth as homogeneous as the back-up catcher. They are like the security guards (also known as "red shirts") on Star Trek. They serve one purpose: that's what they do. When they go away, you don't care. Dougie was an extreme aberration here because he had one big year in 2004 that will remain an outlier in his statistical dossier forever. Also, there was the perception that he scored a lot of tail. Once we traded him, we were in the realm of the Bardhuckerty, and at that point it no longer matters.
I'm winded. Let's get to April!
Tuesday, March 07, 2006
And a-waaay we go!
I have arbitrarily determined that today is the day I will celebrate the return of the boys of summer. It probably goes without saying that I have been relentlessly reading, researching, and conjuring fantasies about all aspects of the off-season and spring training, but I was waiting for that ineluctable internal spark to spur me to return to the blogging venue. Rudy Seanez finally pissed me off enough to drive me back. Let's begin.
I think I speak for many of us when I say I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop, somewhere. Wells, certainly; Graf, certainly; Arroyo and Clement maybe. We have guys that want out, and we still need a solid 4th OF, unless you have more faith than I do that Dustan Mohr is the answer (which is not to say I'm anti-Mohr, I just think we can do better, and get younger). The shoe is not dropping. Wells came around this week, and made a sensible decision in my mind. Hell, he's about done, he's on a great team in the very heart of all that is baseball - what better way to go out? Next year he can get anonymously loaded all he wants. This year is the year to go for it.
That's not really important, though, in my mind. At this point I don't advocate making a trade. We have pitching depth, and that's excellent. We have some old pitchers, some older even than me. They could snap like twigs, at any moment. We have infield depth, and veteran leadership, and I think that's great for a playoff run too. We're a little light in the outfield, but if the Archangel Gabriel returns from injury, Mohr plays up to par, and we find a spot for Willie Harris on the roseter I think we're fine.
The thing to remember about this team is that as of right now this is a great "paper team". If you take everyone's best year, they are phenomenal. Even taking PECOTA averages this team projects to score a lot of runs. They've upgraded the rotation and the bullpen. From a front office perspective the 2006 Boston Red Sox are a solid contender. But there are a lot of Ifs on this squad, and we've heard them all. Will Lowell rebound, has Loretta's injury sapped him, can Gonzalez hit at all, will Youks adapt to playing everyday, can Crisp hit leadoff and play CF, will Foulke and Schilling regain their healthy form, etc., etc. In the end I think the roster's flexibility, and the quality of the guys they have on the squad in those positions in question, will be the difference if this team hits obstacles. In baseball they usually do.
The benefit of all this flux, from the fans' perspective, is that we will get to enjoy (hopefully) watching each of these sub-plots play out as the season progresses. We have a chance to root for several smaller but meaningful victories over the course of the season, each of which can contribute to the greater goal of a world championship. Plus, our high-level prospects are starting to flourish, and that will add some spice to the campaign. Finally, we still have some core members remaining to hold up 2004 as an example of what could be, and to take us back to the days when anything was possible.
It's too difficult to predict how the season will end in terms of the standings and playoff berths, but after some careful thinking, and some positive adjustments, I've come to one conclusion: this should be a very exciting year to be a Sox fan. Now that the Curse Monkey's off our backs, we can just focus on watching a great group of players try to catch a falling star again. And these guys have a chance, they really do.
I think I speak for many of us when I say I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop, somewhere. Wells, certainly; Graf, certainly; Arroyo and Clement maybe. We have guys that want out, and we still need a solid 4th OF, unless you have more faith than I do that Dustan Mohr is the answer (which is not to say I'm anti-Mohr, I just think we can do better, and get younger). The shoe is not dropping. Wells came around this week, and made a sensible decision in my mind. Hell, he's about done, he's on a great team in the very heart of all that is baseball - what better way to go out? Next year he can get anonymously loaded all he wants. This year is the year to go for it.
That's not really important, though, in my mind. At this point I don't advocate making a trade. We have pitching depth, and that's excellent. We have some old pitchers, some older even than me. They could snap like twigs, at any moment. We have infield depth, and veteran leadership, and I think that's great for a playoff run too. We're a little light in the outfield, but if the Archangel Gabriel returns from injury, Mohr plays up to par, and we find a spot for Willie Harris on the roseter I think we're fine.
The thing to remember about this team is that as of right now this is a great "paper team". If you take everyone's best year, they are phenomenal. Even taking PECOTA averages this team projects to score a lot of runs. They've upgraded the rotation and the bullpen. From a front office perspective the 2006 Boston Red Sox are a solid contender. But there are a lot of Ifs on this squad, and we've heard them all. Will Lowell rebound, has Loretta's injury sapped him, can Gonzalez hit at all, will Youks adapt to playing everyday, can Crisp hit leadoff and play CF, will Foulke and Schilling regain their healthy form, etc., etc. In the end I think the roster's flexibility, and the quality of the guys they have on the squad in those positions in question, will be the difference if this team hits obstacles. In baseball they usually do.
The benefit of all this flux, from the fans' perspective, is that we will get to enjoy (hopefully) watching each of these sub-plots play out as the season progresses. We have a chance to root for several smaller but meaningful victories over the course of the season, each of which can contribute to the greater goal of a world championship. Plus, our high-level prospects are starting to flourish, and that will add some spice to the campaign. Finally, we still have some core members remaining to hold up 2004 as an example of what could be, and to take us back to the days when anything was possible.
It's too difficult to predict how the season will end in terms of the standings and playoff berths, but after some careful thinking, and some positive adjustments, I've come to one conclusion: this should be a very exciting year to be a Sox fan. Now that the Curse Monkey's off our backs, we can just focus on watching a great group of players try to catch a falling star again. And these guys have a chance, they really do.
Sunday, January 29, 2006
Onward.
In the clear light of day, I am sitting and looking at the 2006 Red Sox, and I have to be pretty pleased. They are a contender, still, and have gotten younger in the process. They've acquired a young ace-quality starter, dumped an albatross contract at short, and have two guys in Crisp and Youks who are entering the supposed prime of their careers getting a shot at being core contributors. While I am not sold on either player's defensive abilities at their new positions, you have to be a little excited to watch them hit.
Meanwhile they have a strong core of experienced players to provide leadership and stability. Varitek, Ortiz, Schilling, Nixon and the newly acquired Snow (I am a huge fan of this signing) know how to win, and create a clubhouse culture that fosters winning.
There will probably still be a deal with Alex Gonzalez, and it's pretty hard for me to believe Dustan Mohr is the answer for a Nixon platoon-mate, but if this was the group we went to war with in April, I wouldn't complain. We still have a surplus of pitching to carry us through injuries or get us a missing piece come July. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2006 Red Sox have a chance. Regardless of what happens now, I'm going to sit back and enjoy the ride.
Meanwhile they have a strong core of experienced players to provide leadership and stability. Varitek, Ortiz, Schilling, Nixon and the newly acquired Snow (I am a huge fan of this signing) know how to win, and create a clubhouse culture that fosters winning.
There will probably still be a deal with Alex Gonzalez, and it's pretty hard for me to believe Dustan Mohr is the answer for a Nixon platoon-mate, but if this was the group we went to war with in April, I wouldn't complain. We still have a surplus of pitching to carry us through injuries or get us a missing piece come July. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2006 Red Sox have a chance. Regardless of what happens now, I'm going to sit back and enjoy the ride.
Friday, January 27, 2006
Crisped
Well, it's done. In retrospect, I always assumed Theo-gate would be the biggest operatic theme of the off-season, but I think the Crisp Saga tops it. After all the ballyhoo, an "acceptable" deal was reached.
According to ESPN tonight "Along with Crisp, Cleveland sent reliever David Riske and backup catcher Josh Bard to Boston for Mota, third base prospect Andy Marte, catcher Kelly Shoppach, a player to be named and cash." Needless to say I am ecstatic Manny Delcarmen was not added to the bounty, so I am not out-and-out complaining.
At this point the deal looks good for both teams, with Crisp's and to a much lesser extent Riske's big league performances very nearly balancing Marte and Shoppach's upside and Mota's talent. The Sox are desperate for a CF and are buying into Crisp's PECOTA projections, so this plus the Red Sox's obvious weak bargaining position explains the cash/PTBNL and the inclusion of the barely alive form of Josh "The Somewhat Undead" Bard. OK, I am kidding, I understand Pawtucket needs a decent backstop.
Everyone is nervous about this deal, Indian and Sox fans alike, and I guess that more than anything else says it's probably fair. I in my most insane moments imagined Crisp getting freaked out by playing in Boston, hitting lead-off, playing CF, and playing Boston (not a typo) and completely shitting the bed, while Marte fulfilled all expectations, Shoppach put it all together, Mota pitched all year, etc. This is the worst-case scenario, and quite frankly from a risk-only perspective the Sox have the worst of it because all of our eggs are in one basket. If Crisp fails, the trade immediately deteriorates into the Chernobyl realm from the Sox perspective.
Fortunately Crisp does in fact appear to be a solid player and projects well for 2006, although as I have mentioned too many times already, his CF defense is at best a work in progress. Still, when the alternative is Adam Stern, much as I root for his success, I have to look at what Covelli has accomplished, suck it up, and say it: welcome Coco, and cowboy up. From here on in, I am behind you, to the point of excess.
Note: As I write this, my wife is bordering on criminal annoyance by counting down the seconds until I have to stop thinking about the Red Sox. Case in point.
According to ESPN tonight "Along with Crisp, Cleveland sent reliever David Riske and backup catcher Josh Bard to Boston for Mota, third base prospect Andy Marte, catcher Kelly Shoppach, a player to be named and cash." Needless to say I am ecstatic Manny Delcarmen was not added to the bounty, so I am not out-and-out complaining.
At this point the deal looks good for both teams, with Crisp's and to a much lesser extent Riske's big league performances very nearly balancing Marte and Shoppach's upside and Mota's talent. The Sox are desperate for a CF and are buying into Crisp's PECOTA projections, so this plus the Red Sox's obvious weak bargaining position explains the cash/PTBNL and the inclusion of the barely alive form of Josh "The Somewhat Undead" Bard. OK, I am kidding, I understand Pawtucket needs a decent backstop.
Everyone is nervous about this deal, Indian and Sox fans alike, and I guess that more than anything else says it's probably fair. I in my most insane moments imagined Crisp getting freaked out by playing in Boston, hitting lead-off, playing CF, and playing Boston (not a typo) and completely shitting the bed, while Marte fulfilled all expectations, Shoppach put it all together, Mota pitched all year, etc. This is the worst-case scenario, and quite frankly from a risk-only perspective the Sox have the worst of it because all of our eggs are in one basket. If Crisp fails, the trade immediately deteriorates into the Chernobyl realm from the Sox perspective.
Fortunately Crisp does in fact appear to be a solid player and projects well for 2006, although as I have mentioned too many times already, his CF defense is at best a work in progress. Still, when the alternative is Adam Stern, much as I root for his success, I have to look at what Covelli has accomplished, suck it up, and say it: welcome Coco, and cowboy up. From here on in, I am behind you, to the point of excess.
Note: As I write this, my wife is bordering on criminal annoyance by counting down the seconds until I have to stop thinking about the Red Sox. Case in point.
Thursday, January 26, 2006
This Just In: Shapiro A Total Douche
I blame myself to some extent. I just assumed that Shapiro was going for Delcarmen INSTEAD of Mota, since, you know, Mota "failed" his physical. But no, Shapiro is requesting that the Sox send Delcarmen in ADDITION to Marte, Shoppach, Mota, and one of Jed Hoyer's first two children. Again, I am using all caps for emphasis.
In return he will send over Coco Crisp, David Riske, and Josh Bard (maybe). One, has anyone ever gone from well-rated to hideously over-rated faster than Crisp? Christ, with Marte everything written is over-rating; he's never done anything. Crisp in three days has gone from a young, somewhat cost-controlled left-fielder who may or may not be able to play center and bat lead-off to a phenomenal defensive center-fielder and a better hitter than Johnny Damon any day of the week.
Riske is a set-up man with good peripherals (lately) who eats a lot of innings as a set-up guy but doesn't appear to thrive in the fire (hence Gammons reportedly referring to him has a 6th inning guy - woo hoo!). Bard is completely, utterly useless. He could perhaps be an extra character in The Drew Carey Show. That's the role I see him in.
I always felt that the press surrounding the Mota physical always reeked of a set-up, and that media-wise in general Shapiro was stoking the fire under the Boston FO to force a deal with the leak his FO later complained about. By getting the Sox' ultra-rabid fanbase fired up about a new centerfielder he put incredible pressure on the Sox to get the deal done somehow, some way, and then tried to bait-and-switch his way into Delcarmen. Or so I thought. I would have given him some credit for gamesmanship there, especially in light of his underestimating his own fanbase's averse reaction to the deal, but this is just wretched, stinking, avarice.
I hope the Sox stay far, far away from Shapiro unless he comes back to earth. This whole thing has left a very sour taste in my mouth, and I will not be looking favorably on the Indians this season. In the past I barely looked upon them at all, but now I will focus the stink-eye on them - that's right, the stink-eye - and delight in their demise, or worst-case scenario be disgusted with their wild-card scramblings. Hopefully the former.
Yes, I am taking it too personally. I'm a Red Sox fan. It's what we do.
In return he will send over Coco Crisp, David Riske, and Josh Bard (maybe). One, has anyone ever gone from well-rated to hideously over-rated faster than Crisp? Christ, with Marte everything written is over-rating; he's never done anything. Crisp in three days has gone from a young, somewhat cost-controlled left-fielder who may or may not be able to play center and bat lead-off to a phenomenal defensive center-fielder and a better hitter than Johnny Damon any day of the week.
Riske is a set-up man with good peripherals (lately) who eats a lot of innings as a set-up guy but doesn't appear to thrive in the fire (hence Gammons reportedly referring to him has a 6th inning guy - woo hoo!). Bard is completely, utterly useless. He could perhaps be an extra character in The Drew Carey Show. That's the role I see him in.
I always felt that the press surrounding the Mota physical always reeked of a set-up, and that media-wise in general Shapiro was stoking the fire under the Boston FO to force a deal with the leak his FO later complained about. By getting the Sox' ultra-rabid fanbase fired up about a new centerfielder he put incredible pressure on the Sox to get the deal done somehow, some way, and then tried to bait-and-switch his way into Delcarmen. Or so I thought. I would have given him some credit for gamesmanship there, especially in light of his underestimating his own fanbase's averse reaction to the deal, but this is just wretched, stinking, avarice.
I hope the Sox stay far, far away from Shapiro unless he comes back to earth. This whole thing has left a very sour taste in my mouth, and I will not be looking favorably on the Indians this season. In the past I barely looked upon them at all, but now I will focus the stink-eye on them - that's right, the stink-eye - and delight in their demise, or worst-case scenario be disgusted with their wild-card scramblings. Hopefully the former.
Yes, I am taking it too personally. I'm a Red Sox fan. It's what we do.
Cirque du So Lame (like my puns)
I am annoyed now. Following the Red Sox offseason has begun to resemble working in far too many aspects. The endless communications (via messageboard, but still), the grandiose plans and expectations, the false hope, and then the poor execution and politically based roadblocks that ensure failure.
Some of the stories are success stories (at least in my mind) like the Theo Epstein saga. Theo signs! No, he's pissed! Theo leaves! Theo is working behind the curtains like the Wizard of Oz, but will never come back! Wait, there he is! He's back! No, he was just delivering lunch. Wait again, he really is back?! Yay! But Dan Shaughnessy is throwing his feces at him! Is that really necessary? Why Dan, why?!?
I'm ecstatic Theo is back. Everyone who wants the Red Sox to win World Series' (plural) should be pleased by this outcome. But wouldn't it have been nice if he didn't leave? Wouldn't it have been nice if he was here and had the sack to say "You know what, we don't value Christ as much as Christ does, or that douche in New York does. Let's get a centerfielder now, and not waste time and energy pretending we did everything we could to keep Christ. I know he's the Son of God and all, but in the end winning is better than looking nice, and we won't win with a shitbum in center." That would put me in the position of liking the current Red Sox General Manager without being annoyed. That would be good.
That would also put me in the position of being pleased with the 2006 Red Sox center fielder. I'll say this - I am higher on Adam Stern than most people are. I think he has a shot at being a major leaguer. He has decent tools, works hard, and has put up some decent numbers in the past. He doesn't have much pop, but that has hardly been a prerequisite for success at the centerfield position. I think he'll turn into a decent 4th outfielder. Still, when your payroll is hovering around $120 million, he is probably not your starting CF when there are better to be had.
In fact, your starting centerfielder should be someone like Coco Crisp. In fact, except for the deal getting leaked to a Cleveland fanbase who went apeshit (it should be noted that much of the Sox fanbase, and most baseball analysts, also went apeshit) Coco Crisp IS the Red Sox centerfielder now. I firmly believe that Mota went through the physical just fine, but Shapiro told his doctors to kill the deal...either because of the fan backlash, or because he wanted a free pass to go after Delcarmen. There isn't a single pitcher in the bigs who would pass a physical whose outcome had to be the statement "he will pitch every day you need him for the rest of the year". It just wouldn't happen.
Currently we are in the middle of a rumor firestorm involving like 10 centerfielders. Seriously. People are just making shit up. It's fun, for about 15 minutes, and then you start to get a little annoyed that we still have no centerfielder, none of the proposed trades make any sense when you put yourself in the other team's shoes unless the Sox give up somebody that makes you uneasy, and the only thing actually HAPPENING is that we signed Dustan Mohr. I live in San Francisco. I have seen Dustan Mohr. This is no bueno.
I'm glad the front office is not making stupid deals (while I wasn't really on the Marte for Crisp bandwagon, I could understand the logic in spite of Coco's never really succeeding defensively in CF). I don't want Shapiro to get Manny Delcarmen in a stupid stunt like the "failed" physical. I don't want to overpay in any way shape or form right now, not for the likes of Luis Matos or Austin Kearns. But what I'd really like is to stop hearing about it. The way this off-season is shaping up, everyone is going to hold out until it's obvious they make a win-win or go with what they have until July. We don't need to speculate on 9-player trades that will never happen. We don't need sportswriters making up trade rumors to sell newspapers and insert themselves into the story. And apparently, if deals are in the works, we don't need leaks. Amen.
Some of the stories are success stories (at least in my mind) like the Theo Epstein saga. Theo signs! No, he's pissed! Theo leaves! Theo is working behind the curtains like the Wizard of Oz, but will never come back! Wait, there he is! He's back! No, he was just delivering lunch. Wait again, he really is back?! Yay! But Dan Shaughnessy is throwing his feces at him! Is that really necessary? Why Dan, why?!?
I'm ecstatic Theo is back. Everyone who wants the Red Sox to win World Series' (plural) should be pleased by this outcome. But wouldn't it have been nice if he didn't leave? Wouldn't it have been nice if he was here and had the sack to say "You know what, we don't value Christ as much as Christ does, or that douche in New York does. Let's get a centerfielder now, and not waste time and energy pretending we did everything we could to keep Christ. I know he's the Son of God and all, but in the end winning is better than looking nice, and we won't win with a shitbum in center." That would put me in the position of liking the current Red Sox General Manager without being annoyed. That would be good.
That would also put me in the position of being pleased with the 2006 Red Sox center fielder. I'll say this - I am higher on Adam Stern than most people are. I think he has a shot at being a major leaguer. He has decent tools, works hard, and has put up some decent numbers in the past. He doesn't have much pop, but that has hardly been a prerequisite for success at the centerfield position. I think he'll turn into a decent 4th outfielder. Still, when your payroll is hovering around $120 million, he is probably not your starting CF when there are better to be had.
In fact, your starting centerfielder should be someone like Coco Crisp. In fact, except for the deal getting leaked to a Cleveland fanbase who went apeshit (it should be noted that much of the Sox fanbase, and most baseball analysts, also went apeshit) Coco Crisp IS the Red Sox centerfielder now. I firmly believe that Mota went through the physical just fine, but Shapiro told his doctors to kill the deal...either because of the fan backlash, or because he wanted a free pass to go after Delcarmen. There isn't a single pitcher in the bigs who would pass a physical whose outcome had to be the statement "he will pitch every day you need him for the rest of the year". It just wouldn't happen.
Currently we are in the middle of a rumor firestorm involving like 10 centerfielders. Seriously. People are just making shit up. It's fun, for about 15 minutes, and then you start to get a little annoyed that we still have no centerfielder, none of the proposed trades make any sense when you put yourself in the other team's shoes unless the Sox give up somebody that makes you uneasy, and the only thing actually HAPPENING is that we signed Dustan Mohr. I live in San Francisco. I have seen Dustan Mohr. This is no bueno.
I'm glad the front office is not making stupid deals (while I wasn't really on the Marte for Crisp bandwagon, I could understand the logic in spite of Coco's never really succeeding defensively in CF). I don't want Shapiro to get Manny Delcarmen in a stupid stunt like the "failed" physical. I don't want to overpay in any way shape or form right now, not for the likes of Luis Matos or Austin Kearns. But what I'd really like is to stop hearing about it. The way this off-season is shaping up, everyone is going to hold out until it's obvious they make a win-win or go with what they have until July. We don't need to speculate on 9-player trades that will never happen. We don't need sportswriters making up trade rumors to sell newspapers and insert themselves into the story. And apparently, if deals are in the works, we don't need leaks. Amen.
Thursday, January 19, 2006
Junior
The latest rumor, per Boston Dirt Dogs is that Ken Griffey Jr. will be coming aboard in a deal involving the newly-signed Bronson Arroyo. I suspect most people's first reaction, as mine was, is "NO! They call him Mr. Glass!" This is a very valid sentiment.
Moreover, the Arroyo signing is a good one for the Sox. Bronson, in spite of some glaring meltdowns in big games, is an underrated player. He is obviously the most tradeable commodity the Sox have. He is young, eats up innings, and is, declining K/9 rates be damned, not a bad pitcher. He's never been on the DL. He is cheap. He plays guitar, and makes bad hair decisions. There is nothing not to like.
Even assuming Griffey holds up for 500 ABs and produces like he's capable of, he is 36 years old (exactly the age we, certainly I, have been citing as the crap years of Captain Caveman's fat contract with the MFYs)and would serve only as a bridge to Ellsbury. Is that fair market value for Arroyo? Probably not, but we could be in a position where we simply cannot get fair market value in any deal for a CF.
If Griffey holds up to the numbers he put up last year, even with some regression, for another two years, I like this deal. His OPS last season was .942. He hit 35 dings in under 500 ABs. In Fenway that number is likely to increase, which hopefully means other guys will see better pitches. He helps the team if he stays on the field, although not IN the field, where his defense is careening into Bernie Williams territory. Fortunately we have defensive whiz Adam Stern to bring into blowouts.
If he "pulls a Griffey" and is on the DL by May (in Vegas the odds on this can't be good, probably like 8/5) then we've given Arroyo away for no reason, and people are skulking down Yawkey Way carrying tire irons. It's possible that given the disparity in the contracts, and the value of the players, that the Sox would get a prospect back too. We'll see how it plays out. Once again, the 2006 offseason can be described with one word: ambivalent.
Moreover, the Arroyo signing is a good one for the Sox. Bronson, in spite of some glaring meltdowns in big games, is an underrated player. He is obviously the most tradeable commodity the Sox have. He is young, eats up innings, and is, declining K/9 rates be damned, not a bad pitcher. He's never been on the DL. He is cheap. He plays guitar, and makes bad hair decisions. There is nothing not to like.
Even assuming Griffey holds up for 500 ABs and produces like he's capable of, he is 36 years old (exactly the age we, certainly I, have been citing as the crap years of Captain Caveman's fat contract with the MFYs)and would serve only as a bridge to Ellsbury. Is that fair market value for Arroyo? Probably not, but we could be in a position where we simply cannot get fair market value in any deal for a CF.
If Griffey holds up to the numbers he put up last year, even with some regression, for another two years, I like this deal. His OPS last season was .942. He hit 35 dings in under 500 ABs. In Fenway that number is likely to increase, which hopefully means other guys will see better pitches. He helps the team if he stays on the field, although not IN the field, where his defense is careening into Bernie Williams territory. Fortunately we have defensive whiz Adam Stern to bring into blowouts.
If he "pulls a Griffey" and is on the DL by May (in Vegas the odds on this can't be good, probably like 8/5) then we've given Arroyo away for no reason, and people are skulking down Yawkey Way carrying tire irons. It's possible that given the disparity in the contracts, and the value of the players, that the Sox would get a prospect back too. We'll see how it plays out. Once again, the 2006 offseason can be described with one word: ambivalent.
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
Wait for it...
Happy New Year loyal Red Sox fans and obsessives. It didn't take long for 2006 see a flurry of activity in the completely unfounded trade rumormill. The actual trading front of course remains wholly inactive, and quite frankly the wheels are starting to come off the bandwagon as we are still without an all-star SS and CF, and have a (gasp) platoon situation at one, possibly both corners.
I will be the first to acknowledge that the hole in CF is glaring. That's right, glaring. Even now, I can feel it focusing it's eerily angry gaze on me, bathing me in it's bitter and unnecessary glow. The outstanding question remains: there was absolutely no way in hell Christ was coming back - if you wanted Reed why not pull the trigger when you had some leverage? At this point he's quite a bit more expensive - and quite a bit more agreeable - than Michaels given their difference in age. Crisp is really out of the question in spite of the bizarre fantasies of some of our more delusional compatriots. Of course, one of them has to materialize, because as nifty as it would be to have the league's only Canadian Jew patrolling center, it sounds like Stern needs a little more seasoning to be at all productive in the bigs.
Otherwise, I am content with our current position. Given the available options, I am perfectly happy with Cora at SS for a season (or half-season). As I dedicated far too much effort to earlier in this blog I believe he will mirror Renteria's offensive performance (with the exception of one staggering weekend against the Evil Empire) while giving us more leather at short, for far shorter money.
I live in San Francisco and love the Snow acquisition. He hit .313 with runners in scoring position in 2006, and .373 with RISP after the all-star break, and watching him that was the outcome you expected when he stepped into the box. His glove is impeccable, and he is a great clubhouse guy (which to me means preserving an atmosphere where you believe you will win). He can only help Youks and the other rookies. Plus, he saved Dusty Baker's son; that has to count for something.
At third, I think Lowell will produce, and I think Youks will make the most of his opportunities there, or will bring something valuable back via trade. If not, Marte is ready to step in. We are stocked there, and no, I don't perceive that it's a problem.
With Manny sticking around, and the relative ease with which we should be able to pick up a serviceable platoon-mate for Nixon, the offense will provide runs for a pitching staff that is (on paper at least) much improved from last year. At the end of the game, it's about sscoring more runs than you let in. Until this team proves it cannot do that with regularity, why worry? Remember, this team was .500 at the all-star break for the past two seasons.
Right now you can bet that every conversation includes one or more of the names Marte, Lester, Papelbon, and Pedroia. As bored as I am right now, I am sticking to the "no news is good news" position until that changes.
I will be the first to acknowledge that the hole in CF is glaring. That's right, glaring. Even now, I can feel it focusing it's eerily angry gaze on me, bathing me in it's bitter and unnecessary glow. The outstanding question remains: there was absolutely no way in hell Christ was coming back - if you wanted Reed why not pull the trigger when you had some leverage? At this point he's quite a bit more expensive - and quite a bit more agreeable - than Michaels given their difference in age. Crisp is really out of the question in spite of the bizarre fantasies of some of our more delusional compatriots. Of course, one of them has to materialize, because as nifty as it would be to have the league's only Canadian Jew patrolling center, it sounds like Stern needs a little more seasoning to be at all productive in the bigs.
Otherwise, I am content with our current position. Given the available options, I am perfectly happy with Cora at SS for a season (or half-season). As I dedicated far too much effort to earlier in this blog I believe he will mirror Renteria's offensive performance (with the exception of one staggering weekend against the Evil Empire) while giving us more leather at short, for far shorter money.
I live in San Francisco and love the Snow acquisition. He hit .313 with runners in scoring position in 2006, and .373 with RISP after the all-star break, and watching him that was the outcome you expected when he stepped into the box. His glove is impeccable, and he is a great clubhouse guy (which to me means preserving an atmosphere where you believe you will win). He can only help Youks and the other rookies. Plus, he saved Dusty Baker's son; that has to count for something.
At third, I think Lowell will produce, and I think Youks will make the most of his opportunities there, or will bring something valuable back via trade. If not, Marte is ready to step in. We are stocked there, and no, I don't perceive that it's a problem.
With Manny sticking around, and the relative ease with which we should be able to pick up a serviceable platoon-mate for Nixon, the offense will provide runs for a pitching staff that is (on paper at least) much improved from last year. At the end of the game, it's about sscoring more runs than you let in. Until this team proves it cannot do that with regularity, why worry? Remember, this team was .500 at the all-star break for the past two seasons.
Right now you can bet that every conversation includes one or more of the names Marte, Lester, Papelbon, and Pedroia. As bored as I am right now, I am sticking to the "no news is good news" position until that changes.
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