The Big Picture

It's beyond argument now that the 2006 Red Sox season is over, in baseball terms.  But Sox fans need to root harder than ever now.  Now, we're simply rooting for the health of two of our most beloved players, heart and soul of the team David Ortiz and young gun Jon Lester.

Ortiz was re-admitted to the hospital with more heart arrhythmia, and thankfully appears to be well, but put quite a scare into the Fenway Faithful.  As we've learned in the past, these things are tricky, and we should all keep Big Papi in our thoughts, if only to thank him for the truly amazing performances he's given over the past few years.  There is no other player like him.

Lester was suffering back pain and swollen lymph nodes, and the Herald (perhaps irresponsibly) reported that he will be tested for cancer.  This story made us all catch our collective breath, I'm sure.  The kid is only 22 years old, in the prime of life with a starry career ahead of him.  We all need him to be okay, to let us continue to believe that at it's heart, baseball is a healing game, a game of life and living in all it's nuanced, small breaths, motions, and pauses.   Lymph nodes are used in fighting infection, and it's likely the swelling was due to infection: that is what I am keeping in my mind.  Rebound, Jon.

Obviously this blog features none of my usual snarking, for which I apologize (to some degree).  It is easy, especially doing this, to forget these guys are just people, just guys living their lives. In the end, I consider myself lucky to have this team, this fan family, and they and we deserve a few minutes of appreciation and hope.


Coming Soon: The trade of Fatty!  Where will he be eating next?

Sox Worst in MLB In August

We're all familiar with the old saying "missing the forest for the trees".  Those of us in the habit of breaking the game down into it's myriad components certainly seem to be guilty of this right about now.   We all know there are a lot of problems with this club, and the injuries are killing the Sox too, but they are the worst team in all of baseball this month, at 8-17. 

The worst team in all of baseball for the month of August. I mean, I don't care what happens to you, you cannot be the worst team in baseball for an entire month at $120 Million a year.  Okay, to be fair, they could possibly win the next few days and climb out, but this is truly a debacle. And it gets worse, because en route to accomplishing this feat they were swept by two of the other teams way down on the shit list in Seattle and KC. 

I really think we're talked out for 2006.  This is a likeable team, player to player, they really are.  They're just not good enough.  So I'll just ask this on behalf of these players, because if they had thought of it, or cared, they would have: Sox fans, just go out and root for these guys to play hard for pride, and let that be enough for 2006.  Maybe this year is punishment for our hubris, I don't know.  I'm going with a new fan motto for the rest of the year: Simplify.  I'm going to try to appreciate the little things that make baseball great for the rest of the season, and enjoy the game for itself.

This should last about a day since I'm going to the game tomorrow night at the Coliseum to see Kason Gabbard pitch.  Since he's really a prospect, I will use that loophole to overanalyze his performance while a well-built A's team continues to steamroll towards the playoffs.

 

GCL RED SOX WIN!  RED SOX WIN!

If you want something to feel good about, the Sox' rookie club won the GCL championship.  Story [url=http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060825&content_id=124083&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp] here [/url].  These players are light-years away, but this is great for the franchise.

TOUGH SIGN, UM, SIGNS

Lars Anderson, the sweet swinging, power hitting kid oddly named Lars, has signed.  He was really supposed to be a tough sign, but the Sox got it done.  If they come to terms with Bard, which looks likely according to reports, the 2006 Draft will be the biggest success of the season for the organization.  In terms of actual Red Sox team MLB performance this means nothing, but it's fun to root for "upside", isn't it?

Red Sox Nation: Panic Sets In

Here we are in mid-August, and the Sox are 4.5 back from their best chance at the playoffs (WC), 6.5 back of the Yankees in the East after getting gang-raped at home, and the bandwagon's wheel-less chassis is being dragged Lasndowne Street by four lame and most likely drunk Clydesdales.  If you predicted this situation then you're either a fantastic baseball prognosticator, or you've already killed yourself.

Naturally when things go to shit like they have, people start wanting to blame someone, usually someone else.  In the old days everyone would go right after the manager, because their decisions occur during games we lose, and oftentimes can be second-guessed pretty easily.  The Yankees have changed all that though, by using their fabulous wealth to solve all baseball problems.  Nowadays, if your team starts losing and doesn't fix it, the reason is because your GM didn't buy you better players over the trading window.   Affixing blame to the front office also gets folks out from under the weight of having to understand the game, since that is an important component of criticizing the manager.  Good times.

 

Our front office appears to have made some mistakes in their actions and non-actions this year, judging from the standings and heretofore performance of star acquisitions Beckett, Crisp and Mirabelli.  Nevertheless, they are adhering to a preset program, which is to put the team in a position to win 90-95 games a year and go from there. 

Now, to me, there are two heads to the FO's philosophy that they will build a club to win 90-95 wins every year and see what happens.  One is that by not putting all their eggs into one (projected)100+ win super-team filled with expensive free-agents, they will have the flexibility to perhaps make a couple of upgrades come the trade deadline and offseason. The other is plain old luck. In the AL East 90-95 wins does not guarantee a playoff spot - 95 doesn't guarantee a playoff spot.  So they're basically admitting that each year the cookie could crumble.  Certainly this year the cookie has crumbled, due to a spate of injuries, some underperforming pieces, and a couple tough breaks in a few games here and there.

So, does this philosophy make sense, and is this acceptable? I mean, is that just The Game, playing out over the course of the season? Personally, in spite of some of the more dubious decisions on their part, I can't get that worked up about the F.O. right now. I always felt that this was a team that was built well IF things went our way - maybe to a dangerously high degree, but I attributed that to this being a semi-rebuilding year. Obviously things haven't and the results are painful, but if I'm honest, we're not far deviated from what I saw to be the mean outcome looking at this roster on paper back in the spring.  Lotta old guys, lotta young guys - turns out that means a lotta "ifs".

Still, people are enraged that the FO didn't do anything at the deadline, in spite of a farily believable claim that asking prices were too high.  People are still complaining that we let Pedro and Damon walk.  I understand the sentiment, but the logic behind the belief.  Is the consensus that with $120 Million to spend luck should be more or less taken out of the equation? Or perhaps taken out just now, while we have the core players in place? I'm trying to figure out how I'll be happier. Contending every year but with an acknowledged reliance on getting good breaks? Or trying to ride the years where we're primed to take the true "win now" approach. That may mean we have really lean years where I despise watching them, but we would be really IN it for the good years.  Or that's the theory.  If the Sox have proved anything, it's that bad luck can bite you regardless of what approach you take (for reference, see Dent, Bucky).

I believe the current and future baseball environment will make it much harder simply to use $$$ to precipitate a ton of real "win now" years. The Yankees were able to help themselves to Abreu because he was a product of the free agent insanity that revenus sharing has curbed.  So I guess by default I am coming down on the more balanced and luck-reliant approach in the abstract, and the concrete question I'm really asking is - would I be okay with the team utterly sucking when Schilling, Papi and Manny are gone if we really went for it now? Are we as Red Sox fans trying to have our cake and eat it too? Are we just ignoring the fact that if we blow through our prospects we will have some shit years down the road, most likely, or are we stating that we don't care if we have shit years if we win another Championship in the near term.

It seems like this year, at least, we care if we have shit years. We're pretty pissed off, actually.  Is that because we think we should have won it all again with the core guys, or is it just because we cannot accept that a Red Sox team sucks while the Yankees are dominant? I know the second part is very hard for me, because my hatred of the Wanks is truly pathological.  Or maybe, is it because we had a strong first half, and then collapsed, engendering a Pavlovian response in those of us who remember the collapse years from days gone by. Perhaps we thought 2004 had exorcised them, and were wrong.

The fact that so many of my sentences have ended in question marks tells me one thing: the situation is pretty complex.  If I can't come down in a firm position after looking at just some of the angles, I guess it just makes me feel more foolish for attempting to judge Theo and Co. These guys have to deal with the myriad variables of a changing league, all the other shysty GMs, a semi-retarded manager and a clubhouse full of guys who oftentimes don't do what they're supposed to.

It's very possible that the Red Sox F.O. is screwing the pooch, and come 2008 we are going to be really, really bitter.  But maybe their plan is the best one, and it just hasn't been fully realized.  I think this team still has some legs, and in spite of all my experience, I am going to keep hoping they can compete for the rest of the season and come in next year feeling like they've grown.  Maybe 2006 isn't the year, but I won't throw away 2007 yet.

Testing Email Blogging

Not sure if this will work...

Since Google and Blogger merged, they have fucked a large number of bloggers, myself included.  I have not been able to login to my blog in over a week, hence the lack of posts.  If this works I will continue to email posts to the blog from here on in.

Shea

 

Sox Grab Two Left-Handed Bats

Yesterday the Sox made two moves to add some depth to the team, acquiring 1B Carlos Pena in a free-agent signing, and pulling off another waiver-wire deal for Eric Hinske. The Pena signing is interesting in a "why not" sort of way; it was just two years ago that the guy hit 27 HRs in 486 at-bats (while also striking out more than a quarter of the time) and his glovework at first is well-reputed. In light of the premature demise of Choi's career, this made some sense. Pena will report to Pawtucket.

Hinske will have an immediate impact. He can fill in at 1B, 3B and the OF, and with Mike Lowell determined to end his season by hitting balls off himself, Hinske can really help. His defense cannot sniff Lowell's defense's jock, but he is serviceable, and Mikey needs some rest. It may be that Hinske plays first and Shiny Kevin Youkilis moves back to third; who knows. Either way, Hinske's versatility will serve to give some guys a few much-needed rest days.

There is another added bonus to the Hinske signing also (two, depending on how you look at it). Hinske over the course of the past two seasons has only performing exceptionally well against two teams: Boston and the Yankees.

2006 vs. Sox: AVG .391| OBP .417| SLG .565| OPS .982
2006 vs. Yanks: AVG .368| OBP .429| SLG .737| OPS 1.165

2005 vs Sox: AVG .393| OBP .439| SLG .672| OPS 1.112
2005 vs. Yanks: AVG .314| OBP .356| SLG .510| OPS .866

Actually in 2005 he also killed KC, but I can't really count that as "performing exceptionally". The short story here is we have added a Yankee-killer to our team while simultaneously subtracting a Sox-killer from a division rival. Of course, these things sometimes have a way of not holding up over time, so right now the best way to view this is as entertainment, with a side of hope. That being said, it's nice that the deal was made right before the big Sox-Yanks series.

OBP Machines On The farm

There are currently four players in the Red Sox minor league organization with OBPs over .400. Granted, none of them is above A-Ball, but in some ways that is also encouraging.

Topping the list is Aaron Bates, who appears to be bored by the NYPL, with an OBP of .436, thanks in large part to a BA of .360. He only has 100 ABs under his belt, but he is eating up rookie-ball pitching for the Lowell Spinners.

Zach Daeges ist he true steel, with an OBP of .423 in 166 ABS, and a nearly 1:1 K:BB ratio. Daeges has nearly twice as many RBIs as the next closest player with 30 (to Still's 17), and really appears to have an advanced approach at the plate. Hard not to like this kid.

At Lowell, Zak Farkes also has an OBP above .400 at .409, but given his high-ish K rate (above 20%) and low-ish BB rate (around 8%) I don't see this continuing. He's hitting .329 right now. Still, you have to hope Farkes progresses enough to reach the majors just to give us the possibility of a Foulke-Farkes matchup during an ESPN telecast. Joe Morgan would crap himself.

Not surprisingly Jeff Natale is the only player with an OBP above .400 that isn't in rookie ball. His 1-1 with 3 BBs performance yesterday pushed him up to .406. His average and slugging are still depressed, at .256 and .333 respectively, but strike zone command is certainly not the issue. The Italian God of Walks must be bemusing Billy Beane right about now. Sadly, his defense is still an issue as he has 10 errors in just 68 games (although that is better than Renteria).

It occurs to me that if I still lived back east, I'd head to Lowell for a game while the guys we drafted this year are playing there. There will be some legitimate talent there the next couple of years (and hopefully beyond, but you know), and it's not that far from NH if you needed beer on a Sunday anyway. Why not?

Looking Ahead

I think it's becoming evident by now that the coin has landed on the "rebuilding" side. All in all, I think the FO did a decent job of putting together a 2006 team that could have been extremely competitive had they been extremely lucky health-wise, had some over-performers, and maybe caught lightning in a bottle. This team did not pan out that way; that's baseball. Technically they're still right there in the mix, but it's pretty clear given their current performance level that come September they will not be in the catbird seat.

Previously I focused on the offense's poor situational hitting, not really as a means of explaining the losing, but as a contributor to it due to their leaving a lot of runs on the table. I thought it was interesting in light of the fact that when you just look at run production the team still performs versus the rest, at #4 in the AL since the break. The issue is that they weren't performing to potential situationally. Still, you can't complain when your team averages more than five runs a game. The pitching, of course, is what is killing this team.

Since the All-Star Break here's how our pitching has fared against the rest of the AL:

Record: 15-16 (speaks for itself)
ERA: 4.99 (only TB, Balt. and KC are worse, and yes, we just went 4-6 against them)
R/ER: 175/154 = 22 Un-Earned runs (worst in AL)
WHIP: 1.50 = avg. of 13.5 baserunners per 9 (only Seattle, Balt, TB and KC are worse)
OBP Against: .352 (tied with Seattle and Balt. TB and KC are worse)
SLG Against: .451 (CWS, Balt, TB and KC are worse)
CS/SB: 23/4 (only CWS at 25/4 are worse)

I don't think there is anyone in RSN, myself included, who would have predicted this situation looking at the roster in the spring. Injuries and some unexpectedly poor performances have put us behind the eight-ball. We probably aren't going to get there this year, so let's look ahead.

The question of course, now that the free agent market has become a pit fight beyond anything we have previously known, is who from within the system will contribute in the near future? I like to follow the young guys because it's fun to do so - they're young, living the dream, having the occasional big night - but the reality is that most of these guys will not become big leaguers.

Here are some players, by league, that might contribute in the 2007-2008 seasons:

AAA: Pawtucket's much-heralded spark plug/fire hydrant Dustin Pedroia is the only player who looks like he's ready for the bigs. David Murphy has the draft pedigree, but hasn't performed well enough to be expected to contribute. There are no pitchers in AAA who will help the big-league club much.

AA: Ellsbury is the cream of the crop here, and probably in the system. He was recently named Eastern League Player of the Week. He is insanely fast, has a bit of gap power, and is plus defensively. It would be fantastic if he were ready for 2007 but it's likely we see him late 2007/for 2008. The fact that he has two last names guarantees us something.

There is some hope hard-throwing converted catcher Edgar Martinez might help out of the bullpen. He was an All-Star this year, and can bring the heat with a couple of balance pitches in his repertoire. Having Rich Garces as your MLB comparison kind of leaves one with mixed feelings though, doesn't it? (Note: I linked to Martinez's Sox Prospects page not to make you click-through to get his stats, but so you could see that he is chubby - like El Guapo.)

Brandon Moss is still languishing in AA but remains on Sox Prospect's top ten list at #10. This is hard to swallow, but if accurate doesn't bode well. I just can't see how it's accurate. He's nearly 23 and middling-to-good in AA. Chad Spann is his doppleganger, although has hit for more power in AA with a .472 SLG this year. Spann surprised people, so might still be on the upswing. If I had to put money on one horse it would be Spann, but it would be money I found on the ground in a public restroom and wasn't attached to.

Luis Jimenez is the x-factor. Knicknamed "Little Papi" due to his immense size and somewhat considerable power, Jimenez has hit 15 HRs in AA in just 329 ABs, but also managed to amass just a .465 SLG - lower than Spann's. Strikes out almost 20% of the time, but also walks a bit. He seems to get injured a lot recently, so the book is still out on LP.


Single-A: It's always a stretch to consider anyone from A-ball contributing at the major league level in two years. Hansen is sort of "contributing" now, but he was deemed nearly major-league ready right out of college (turns out that may have been a rose-tinted assessment).

In Wilmington, there are a few guys that could contribute in the short term. First is Bryce Cox, the fireballing reliever drafted after dominating for Rice in the CWS. His stuff is supposed to be electric, but then, so was Hansen's. Nevertheless, he has moved through the system quickly already.

Jed Lowrie has battled injuries, but comes with a pedigree. He has stalled this year in overcoming his setbacks, but there is the chance that he could come back strong and move quickly next year. He showed some surprising power in college, putting up an OPS over 1.100 his junior and senior year. He has to be considered a longshot, but we'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Mark Wagner (picture link included for laughs) has just been promoted to Wilmington after tearing up low-A in Greenville. At this point he has to be considered the top Catcher prospect in the system, due to... well, there being no others to speak of. He shows good strike-zone command at the plate, and has hit for average and (some) power this year.

Another recent promotee is Clay Buchholz. He has a live arm, and apparently drew some interest over the trade deadline. It might be a stretch to see him make the bigs for the Sox, but if he's ready in 2008 the timing would be pretty sweet.

In Greenville still, Michael Bowden has put together some strong performances, and if he continues to perform at his current level he could move quickly could make the jump. He is big boy with a pitcher's body, and has got excellent peripherals thus far into his career.

That's pretty much it. Positionally, only Pedroia and Ellsbury look sure to help the team over the next couple of years. This year's draft was a good one but there is noone who will be close to ready by 2008, barring a miracle (okay, maybe Masterson). Cox and Martinez will probably end up in the bullpen, maybe as soon as later next year, and we can hope we see Buchholz and/or Bowden making some spot starts in 2008.

The short version is this: it's going to be another exciting off-season. Now, back to your regularly scheduling Red Sox supporting. As I like to say" 'Probability's got nothing to do with it".

Swing Low, Sweet Chariot

Comin' for to carry me home.

The Sox have just endured what is the worst road trip in recent memory, having just lost 5 of 6 to the two (arguably) worst franchises in the majors. The split against Cleveland, thanks to our old pal Fausto, netted the team a final record of 3-7 for the trip, and when they arrive at Fenway today they will be fortunate not to be pronounced DOA.

There is nothing left to say right now. The pitching is incredibly poor, and the offense is not producing runs unless one of the Big Three goes yard. Poor starts and execrable relief outings have engendered a vicious circle that is killing the team. In spite of the ultimate outcome last night, Schilling's (near)8-inning effort last night was the best thing to happen to these guys in a while.

I'm just repeating myself at this point, but it is what it is. We're at the point where the players play and the managers manage, and it's time for them to get to it. In Wily Mo's case this might be hard - he is batting seventh, protected in the lineup by sarcasm-inspiring white-hot bat javy Lopez. Oh, Tito, why?

On to brighter pastures...

Signings

Two high-upside high school prospects signed with the Sox, Ryan Kalish and Tyler Weeden. Both were considered longshots at the time of the draft, so this is good news, tempered by the fact that it could indicate the Sox are missing out on a couple other coveted draftees.

Ryan Kalish: 6' 1" 200lbs - L/L Kalish was a three sport athlete for Red Bank Catholic High School. The Virginia sports page had this to say:

"Kalish is ranked No. 76 by Baseball America. He's four-year starter for Red Bank Catholic having led the team in hitting the past three seasons. He owns a .466 career batting average having produced 100 hits in his first three seasons for the Red Bank Catholic. On the mound, Kalish has recorded 190 career strikeouts. He led the conference in stolen bases. Kalish has garnered all-parochial, all-conference and all-division team honors in baseball. He is a three-sport athlete (baseball, football, basketball) and has led Red Bank Catholic to its first division championship since 1989 as the starting quarterback. As a sophomore, he hit .507 and drove in 21 runs and posted a 6-1 record with a 1.60 ERA."

Moreover according to the Sox's Jason McLeod, Bosox scouts claim he didn't swing and miss at a pitch the entire season. That is pretty impressive. Kalish hasn't hit for HR power yet but had a .578 SLG in high school, and is pretty much the definition of "projectible" at this point. Comparisons are being made to Trot Nixon, and that's pretty good, although it would help if Kalish could hit lefties.

Tyler Weeden: 6' 2" 200lbs - R/R Rumor had that Weeden was a no-sign some time ago, so this came as a surprise to me, albeit a pleasant one. Tyler was also a state-level quarterback in high school. On some level I guess this makes he and Kalish annoying, since they obviously got much more tail than I ever did in high school, but whatever. Moving on.

Baseball America had this to say about Ty:

"Though Ty can throw 90-92 mph off the mound, he won't follow in his brother's footsteps as a pitcher. Scouts still talk about the batting-practice show he put on at the Area Code Games last summer, displaying tremendous power to all fields. If scouts believed he could play catcher, he'd go in the first two rounds. But they're skeptical because he doesn't have the agility or receiving skills to match his arm strength. He's probably destined for first base, where much more offense is required, because he may lack the athleticism to handle an outfield corner. Nevertheless, his righthanded power is a valuable commodity, and he'll be a decent draft pick if he's considered signable away from Arkansas."

Weeden will not play this season due to his signing a 2007 contract, but as we are learning to our disgust now, having more power in the organization never hurts. Good signs, both.

Sure, the pitching sucks, but...

Since my quiet (yet enraged) acceptance that our pitching would suck nearly every appearance, I have spent my time watching games with the hope that the Sox would score ten runs every outing. They never do, and this puzzles me because they always seem to be threatening. The Sox are excellent threateners, but do not seem to follow up with action. It occurred to me that perhaps I was just catching them during off nights - I can't watch all the games - so I decided to look at how the team is performing on offense situationally.

You probably won't be surprised to learn that I was not pleased with what I found out. Let's take a quick look at the team OPS by team in the AL, for the season. I have broken them out by situation (double-click to open larger image):



A couple things jump right out, don't they? First off, the Sox are the only team to get progressively worse at the plate until they are in a 2-out RISP position. Now, they're starting pretty high with that .828 OPS with nobody on, but the pattern is not what you want to see. Cleveland is a good example of a team that succeeds regardless of the situation.

Next, the fact that the Sox absolutely suck ass with the bases loaded is pretty disappointing isn't it? They do lead the league in bases-juiced sac flys, which is nice. This might be due to their also league-leading .70 GB:FB ratio in that situation (this hasnt stopped them from being right up there in DPs, don't worry). Another strange factoid from the bases-loaded stats page - the Spanks lead the league in HBP with the bags full, at SIX. They are not afraid to lean into one.

The story is pretty clear, although there are no doubt several reasons for it. In spite of being second in the league in runs scored, the Sox are leaving a ton of runs on the table. It would appear they are averaging 8.38 men LOB per game (see the Triumphant Red Sox Fan Forum). That's really just not very good. I mean, it's good that their high-OBP mantra has paid off because with their total inability to consistently drive guys in (Papi and Manny excluded) that is how they're scoring runs - attrition. My point is that with more consistent situational production the awful, awful, just awful pitching might be more easily weathered.

As I mentioned earlier there are probably a lot of reasons for this situation. One of them, however, has to the be this: the Sox get the worst production out of the #5 spot in the lineup of any team in the AL. In all of MLB, only Florida's OPS is lower (.682 to Boston's .695). How is that possible? Here are some figures:

SLG: .354 (worst in MLB)
Total Bases: 149 (worst in MLB)
RBIs: 51 (tied for 3rd worst in MLB)
BBs: 68 (tied for 2nd to top in MLB)

The walks might be an indicator that the hitter isn't seeing a ton of good pitches to hit, but the #1 BB count at the five-spot belongs to the Yankees who are producing at a .966 OPS with a .549 SLG in the position. So it's hard to argue that with any conviction. Rather, it looks like the approach is the one I used in second grade: "a walk's as good as a hit - maybe better!"

I think at this point most of us would like to see Lowell or WMP in the five-hole, with Youks leading off and Crisp hitting down in the order. Youks doesn't have speed but is getting on base in front of the guys who consistently drive in runs. Crisp's speed would be best used in creating runs for the bottom of the order guys. Or so it seems to us in our armchairs. But, really, when all is said and done, we're just nitpicking. If it gets right down to it, we'd simply like to see a win and the lineup be damned.

Sox vs. D-rays: Diary of a Train Wreck

What is there to say? A loss to the Strip Club is never acceptable, but it's generally best even while losing, as a rule of thumb, not to be confused with a drunken softball team. And I'm not even singling Wells out here.

Are we familiar with Casey Fossum? I think we are. Do we believe that Casey is a skilled major league starter? Umm, no; historically, no. We think Casey is a guy with a career 5.12 ERA, a .275 BAA, and in general, no staggering ability. We acknowledge that Casey's last start against Detroit was a gem, but also note that in his previous outing he gave up 5 ER and 7 R in 1.1 IP versus Anaheim.

In retrospect, I both have no idea who the aforementioned "we" are, and (and this is much more unfortunate) I guess I also don't know how Fossum differs from Beckett, outside of the price tag. That is a pretty sad admission. But look:

Beckett:





Fossum:






Fossum is a 27-year old left-hander making $2 million dollars a year. No one is expecting him to be an ace, and generally speaking, he isn't - except against the much-vaunted Red Sox lineup of course. But, at least so far in 2006, he's as much an ace as Josh Beckett. Maybe someone needs to explain to Joshie that strikeouts are fun, but keeping the goddamn ball in the park is maybe more fun. Other than this, I have no point.

Oh, wait, I have one point. Thus far, Javy Lopez is 0-for-9 with two pretty brutal double-plays and in general looks lost at the plate. It's early, but I'm thinking to myself, how much bounce-back did I have at 35? I mean, without the anti-aging properties of PBR. He really (no, really) needs to perform. It might be time for an inspirational speech from Wily Mo, along the lines of "if you don't start hitting, I will crush your puny head in my fist like a grape". In my mental clubhouse, that is how Wily Mo rolls. Yes, he is a Super Genius, but sometimes he doesn't need the big brain.

Tomorrow it appears we'll get another look at Jason Johnson, and I know we're all silently mulling over the possibility of using the term "re-invigorated". Or, for some of us, perhaps the term "less sucky" would be more appropriate. Either way, JJ needs to keep us in the game, and we need to score more than a single run against another Tampa Bay "ace".

Lopez On Board; Stern Overboard

According to Sean McAdam in the Projo, Adam Stern will go to the Orioles via waivers in exchange for Javy Lopez. This is a classic overpay, although the consensus is that Stern probably didn't have a home on the Sox barring another injury (and those almost never happen!). I for one am sad to see Stern go; our outfield defense is nightmarish, and will be no better in 2007. I had hoped to see Stern on the bench next year, although perhaps Ellsbury is expected to be ready by the second half.

McAdam also covers the correlative drama around the transaction, which is that the Devil rays may claim Stern out of spite in retribution for the Sox speaking to Lugo's agent during the trading window. For the umpteenth time the same question arises - is the front office in Tampa actually just a bunch of crack-addicted strippers? Maybe. Do they need another outfielder? No.

The net effect of their claim would be that Baltimore would have to wait until next year to get Stern, so tampa Bay would in fact be revenging themselves against Baltimore, who apparently have insulted them by either a) trading with Boston or b) getting too frisky in the VIP room.

Gumptastic

There has been a lot of hand-wringing over Tito's mismanagement of last night's game against the Tribe. Essentially people are disturbed that:

1. He left Beckett in to give up 7 consecutive hits, including two home runs.
2. He did not pinch hit for Ken Huckaby, the batting equivalent of Ray Charles, with the bases loaded and nobody out shortly thereafter.
3. He did not pinch hit for Mirabelli with a one-run deficit and two-out in the 9th.

Let me explain these decisions in such a fashion that no one is confused. It's important as fans that we understand how our manager's mind works so we can get on the same page. Tito's reasons are below, for each respesctive decision.

1. He had called the bullpen after Hafner's homer, but no one answered the phone, so he assumed no one was there.
2. He thought Huckaby was "due" so he consulted the Magic 8-Ball, and although he worded his question ambiguously he got a confirming response.
   
3. He had bet Dougie ten bucks that Dougie would get a grooved fastball and miss it, and he wanted to win that bet.

As you can see, he had perfectly good reasons for his non-moves in each case. Do not doubt Tito. He has a 17-man roster and he is using it to near perfection.

The Bad News

Yesterday I alluded to the fact that the Sox are now underdogs. I wasn't necessarily referring to the fact that the Yankees are in first place and will likely remain there for the rest of the season. I was actually referring to the fact that BP's projections have the Sox with just a 59% chance of making the post-season. The PECOTA projection sim has them at 62% but the PECOTA numbers assumed a healthy Wakefield and Varitek. Let's round off and say sixty percent.

The question that I keep asking myself is, "is that okay"? I mean for most teams if you told them they had a 60% shot at the beginning of the season they'd be pretty psyched up, but of course, they wouldn't be spending the money the Sox are spending. If like me you think for $130 million or so bucks you should be looking at a figure closer to 80%, you have to wonder what went wrong. Why is this team struggling to make the postseason?

Let's see:

1. Starters Clement, Fatty McFatfat, and Wake go down with injury. The team brings up Lester, who performs admirably, but Johson and Snyder don't get it done.
2. Second "ace" Josh Beckett has an ERA of 5.00 and cannot keep the ball in the park. I've talked about this before, and maybe it's just me, but he has to throw inside or has to throw fewer fastballs. Every hitter is sitting dead-red on him, every at-bat. You can't blow it by them all.
   
3. Julian Taverez and Rudy Seanez combine to hasten the apocalypse in nearly every appearance. Their combined WPA for the season? Negative 222. Only Andy Sisco and Elmer Dessens for the Royals can best (worst?) that number, and they had to combine for nine losses and eight blown saves to do so.
   
4. Varitek's offense goes into the toilet. Did the WBC wear him down prematurely, or has he been battling the knee all along? Upon arriving in the septic tank Tek's offense says hello to Mirabelli's, which has been squatting there for some time.
5. Crisp breaks his finger and misses a third of the season, and struggles to regain his form. It should be noted that for the Damon years it ws frequently noted that "As Johnny goes, so go the Red Sox" - Crisp was supposed to fill that void. Youks has done an impressive job but is not as disruptive as a healthy Crisp who could actually bat leadoff would be. I am reserving judgement on whether or not there is a leadoff hitter still living inside Coco's body, yearning to be free. However, I suspect not.

These are all pretty obvious, and are certainly contributors. The things is this. The Yankees lost Sheffield and Matsui nearly for the season and replaced them with Melky Cabrera, Bernie Williams, Bubba Crosby, and Aaron Guiel. Damon spent time on the DL, Posada spent time on the DL - they never slowed down. To some extent, this is due to the fact that weak teams roll over for them. But marginal players seem to play above themselves in the pinstripes (for reference see Small, Aaron; Chacon, Shawn) when the Spankees need help.

The Sox have not seen that happen, obviously. Doug Mirabelli has been Doug Mirabelli, only worse. Jason Johnson has been Jason Johnson, only worse. Kyle Snyder has been Kyle Snyder, but not really worse, so I guess I have no point with him. We're now to the stage in the season where for this team to seriously contend, one of these guys needs to step up and say "I'm better than this". I think Torre is good at getting guys to do that; I don't think Tito is.

The Good News

There is still a bright and shiny core driving this team. This is undeniable. Theo, for all the shit he's taking now for getting nothing done for the deadline, has done a pretty admirable job of getting professional ballplayers who are self-motivated and come to ballpark ready to win. This mitigates what in my mind is Tito's major weakness - he does not inspire (it should be noted that he also does not combust, and in Boston that is a plus). There is not a single member of the team assembled to start this season that doesn't know how to get the job done every day. Even Wells, in his own drunken, morbidly obese way, is a gamer.

That is why this team is still in the race despite the hurdles. They are not getting significant contributions from the fillers, but the core players are finding ways to win. Ortiz is performing at a simply heroic level right now. Manny is hitting for power with consistency. Lowell turned his career around and is a key performer for the Sox. Youks and Loretta have fought their way through slumps to continue to contribute in key situations. Gonzalez had adjusted to hitting in the AL and is outperforming his best projections. And Crisp, who has struggled at the plate and in the field, has stayed positive throughout, and might be breaking through, having raised his batting average 17 points in the past 10 days.

Of course, this leaves the pitching staff. If the bats are keeping the team afloat, the pitching is punching holes in the boat. Still, at 39 Schilling is having a fantastic season. Beckett for all his disappointing outings has shown flashes of brilliance. Lester appears to be the real deal although it is just his first time through the league. Papelbon has been a force of nature, and MDC and Hansen are getting better as they gain experience. Nevertheless, let's face facts: there are some shiny areas here, but it's going to be a white-knuckle flight coming in.

I'll say it again; it will all probably fall to Wake and Wells to get us to the postseason if we do indeed make it. I think Snyder has some real potential, but isn't there yet mentally. Johnson is a mystery, but doesn't appear to have the stuff right now, in spite of his improved recent start. And that's it - realistically, there are no other starters who can contribute this year.

So pick your horse, because at some point we're all going to be riding him in a big game, trying to get home. Maybe it will be Wake, and the knuckler will flutter and hitters will flail and all will be well. Maybe it will be Wells, and he'll gut his way through another game, one step ahead of the Big Inning. Or, maybe not. Maybe it will in fact be Snyder, or maybe Johnson. If so, just pray they step up, sack up, and Believe.

Red Sox Now Underdogs: Will Guts Be Enough In 2006?

The fallout from the trading window has arrived, and it is radioactive. Ken Rosenthal is particularly harsh in his criticism, but then Ken's entire niche is reporting on trades, so I could imagine he's pretty pissed whenever any team a) doesn't do a deal and b) doesn't leak information. Nevertheless, he has a point. The FO did not improve the team for one reason or another, and it's going to be a long tough road home.

We can all agree that it's important to adhere to your long-term plan and keep your top prospects in the current MLB environment, which is starting to move towards parity. One wonders how long the window to win with the current stars is open though. Schilling may be gone next year, Manny will probably slow down a bit more, and it's nearly impossible to imagine Ortiz continuing to perform at this level. More problematically, there is nothing here to replace their production. Beckett will probably not be Schilling. The Super Genius, much as I love him, will never be Big Papi. And Coco will most certainly never be Manny.

2007 will be a watershed year for Theo Epstein and his team - if this is the "stand pat" year, next year has to be the "Series or Bust" year, or people may simply lose faith in their architecture of the team.

The acquisition of Javy Lopez via a waiver-wire trade for a PTBNL, if/when finalized, hopefully addresses the Varitek injury from the offensive side. Although Lopez is 35 and hasn't been playing regularly he's certainly capable of getting hot for a couple months while trying to earn a contract for 2007 somewhere. His defense is remarkably bad, literally; whenever he is mentioned, his poor defense is remarked upon. As we saw tonight though, it just won't do to have a $135 Million dollar payroll and a starting catcher hitting .180.

However, the Cleveland series had some high notes, and the Sox showed the same never-say-die character we loved about the 2004 team. Two walk-off wins in three days is huge, and shows that this team has some fight in it yet. The pitching simply has to improve, though; there is no way around it.

So say a prayer to Fausto Carmina - but for him we would have been swept by Cleveland. And while you're down there, you might want to take a minute to speak up on behalf of Fatty McFatFat. His back needs to start carrying some weight.

No Cavalry This Year: Sox Stand Pat

A snoozer of a trade deadline has come and gone, and with the exception of journeyman mediocrity Bryan Corey, the Red Sox did not acquire any new faces. We heard rumors of massive multi-player deals that were in the works, ever in the works, but nothing reached consummation. Except, perhaps, the growing feeling among the other GMs that Theo and Co. were yanking them around (if you believe illegitimate Steinbrenner offspring Buster Olney).

The initial reaction to this of course is one of disappointment. It's fun to get new shiny things, and there are so many glaring holes on this team that we all assumed that would be exactly what happened. It is painful, but we will continue to see the Anti-Christ take the mound. We will continue to watch 90% of all ground balls to the second base area turn into base hits. And we will continue to wonder "will we ever win a game behind a #5 starter again"? It's tough.

However, this front office values the future and in today's baseball where parity is becoming the norm, that means keeping your young prospects. GMs around baseball know the pressure Theo and co. are under playing against the Yankees in the East. The asking prices for mediocre players are inflated and the asking prices for quality players are sky-high. Maybe this scenario demands they get creative and put together multi-team blockbusters, or perhaps they feel that is the best way to get value regardless of the market. Whatever the reasons, these complicated deals are notoriously difficult to close, and when the smoke cleared this afternoon, there was no fire.

The Yankees improved their team in the short-term with the additions of Abeu and Lidle. While Lidle is not dominant, it's safe to say he's better than Chacon, and certainly better than Kyle Snyder. He is insurance. Abreu gives them a run creator, and a solid all-around ballplayer. He he has an OBP of .427 and has some spped with 25 SBs, which in the Yankee lineup is going to translate into runs, and runs have a way of translating into wins.

The short version at this point appears to be that the Sox will once again be fighting for the wild card in the AL East. Nothing is over, but they are playing three wins above their pythag wins right now, and their schedule gets tougher in the second half. The Yankees rotation is solid from 1-5, and they are going to score more runs from here on in. It is what it is. Nothing is easy in the AL East.

Still, let me reiterate: nothing is over. The Sox don't have a #4 or #5 starter, but perhaps that will change. Wells' outing tonight is...well, awful... but he's thrown five innings and hasn't collapsed in a pile of fat and BBQ sauce yet, so there's hope. Wake should be able to rehab in time for the playoffs. Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius will be in the lineup every day and due to his magical powers anything can happen. The last point is probably the one you want to hold on to. Remember the magic.

Edit: Fuck the magic, Varitek has apparently left the game with a knee injury. As I've noted before Doug Mirabelli's understanding of game calling consists of the phrase "I call it a game because that's what it is." If the injury is serious we're pretty much screwed.

Huh?

Today's interesting tidbit from the farm is this: Greenville is being no-hit through six innings by a pitcher whose last name is "Outman". He is a very literal person.

Sox Forfeit, Yanks Cheat Again, Bosoxwest rants

Alert: ranting below.

In a piece of shocking misfortune, I spent a considerable sum of money purchasing tickets to a game that Tito Francona forfeited. Sadly, I didn't realize Tito had done this until I arrived to understand that he had supported Kyle Snyder, our fragile 5th "starter", by granting him the peculiar game-calling skills (and bat, of course) of idiot non-savant Doug Mirabelli. Dougie was wise enough to insure that the only truly dangerous bat in Oakland's lineup (Frank Thomas) saw a grooved fastball whenever he wanted one. He somehow seemed to be unaware that Kyle doesn't throw his fastball with any control and in fact is more comfortable with his curve.

Dougie was also skillful enough to swing at every off-speed offering from Dan Haren, then head back to the dugout marvelling at Haren's "not that fast fastball". Basically, watching Dougie today was like repeatedly punching ones-self in the crotch. As it turns out, the Oakland folks don't even bat an eye when crotches are self-punched, so that worked out well in an unfortunate way.

Short story is Snyder looked like a dog who'd been kicked by his master (he had) and performed in a fairly uninspired and self-defeating fashion. I think it's safe to say he lacked passion today. I'm just basing this on the 12 minutes it took him to walk from the mound to the dugout after each half-inning, and the fact that his chin never left his skeletal upper chest. Maybe I read too much into the body language - look how wrong I was about Derek Lowe and Clement....errr....nevermind.

Meanwhile, hours later, the Yanks take yet another game from the Texas Rangers on a ninth-inning dinger by baseball's longest-running cheater Jason Giambi. Over several days of beers and chatter the west coast Red Sox fans have come to two conclusions:

1. Jason Giambi has put on a physically impossible amount of muscle in the past 18 months and will soon be dead from the abuse, but will continue to help the Yankees win and will ultimately be without legal recourse, per his contract with George Steinbrenner.
2. The Texas Rangers have been paid to drop games to the Yankees as part of the A-Rod trade. In 2006 alone they are 2-8 against a PEDestrian Yankee team, and today's loss was a bona fide work of art. Only Tampa Bay and Kansas City have rolled over with such girlish alacrity, but of course that was to be expected.

There isn't much to be done about number one, and it's pretty difficult to prove number two given how truly incompetent the Hart/Showalter combo is, so essentially we're left hoping a streaky and sometimes unimpressive Red Sox team can somehow outlast a Yankee squad riding an ungodly streak of pure luck, clutch performance, and the latest in performance enhancing drugs.

Notes from the Coliseum

Here are a couple things I noted from watching the Sox - As series in Oakland...

• A's fans are even worse than I remember. On Monday there was an 80/20 Sox fans to A'sfans split, which really bummed me out, because the Giants have great attendance and a baseball team that is far less impressive than the A's. However during today's day game the ratio normalized, due to (as I learned to my distress) the ability of the A's senior citizen set to attend. It was like watching the Sox game on the TV in the living room while the kitchen TV was blaring Happy Days in the background. Unnerving, quite frankly.
• Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius is a behemoth. He is gigantic, is freakishly fast, and threw so hard in a between-inning catch with Van Buren that JVB had to start loading up and firing his throws back to avoid being shown up. If he is traded by the Sox I will be very very disappointed, unless it's to the Pats.
• Mark Loretta is a statue. I cannot stress this enough. His lateral movement is that of a fully-retrofitted multi-story tower during a mild breeze. Several times we all got very excited to watch important ground-ball basehits roll up the middle on the second base side only to discover to our dismay that with Ellis at second they were routine outs. We had just been fooled because they were hits for the A's. Pedroia must be licking his chops.

Trade Talk

Everything I have heard thus far has struck me as absolute hooey. I'm not just saying this just to use the term "hooey" either. One of the stories has the FO in the mix for Lugo, which I have to think is just a smokescreen to up Toronto's output for the 30-year old rental. If it were actually in their plans to move to a more offensively talented SS I would hope they target 26-year old Wilson Betemit in Atlanta, who put up an OPS near .800 in limited time last season and is at .844 thus far this year in just under 200 ABs. Rumor has it the Yankees have already done so. In the long term, I think allowing them to acquire Betemit would be a far worse outcome than if the Jays acquired Lugo for two months. He would provide the Yankees with a three-position utility man off the bench with some pedigree, or allow them to move Cano for pitching.

In spite of Snyder's tough outing today I am pretty sure the rumored Lieber/Burrell acquisition will not happen. Lieber is not good enough to warrant taking Burrell's albatross contract. Actually, to me, Lieber is not good enough to trade for. I'd question signing him as a free agent. He hasn't impressed in the NL, and that speaks for itself. He is known for pounding the strike zone (although not recently), and would benefit from the Sox defense when pitching to contact, but he's just not worth anything in the way of young talent.

Burrell is a decent hitter with some power and a good batting eye, but is a poor situational hitter and his defense is poor due to his injury woes. He is owed 9.5 Million next year, 13 Million the following and has a team option for 14 Million in 2008. No thanks.

This of course still leaves us in the unenviable position of waiting on the return of Wells, and/or Wakefield, and hoping whatever patchwork measures are taken in the interim work out. The dealing deadline looms in 4 days and from all accounts the sellers are gouging. I'd prefer we don't bite. But then, I'd also prefer we keep winning. This probably explains why I'm not a GM.

Red Sox Draftee Update

I thought I'd compile some basic stats for the guys we drafted this year, as a quick follow-up for those of you who care. I find it entertaining to follow them from the beginning, so if you only care about the big club, indulge me.

Note on the images: I know they are godawful, but I cannot spend another second figuring them out. Hopefully they enlarge OK.

Position players first:


Obviously the guys who stand out (good) here are Bates, Daeges, and Chambers, who I think has surprised a few people in a Jeff Natale sort of way. The thing to note about Chambers, apart from his stellar strike-zone knowledge, is that he's hitting .275 with a .288 BABIP - just below average, and so he's not getting a lot of luck. Conversely, Bates's BABIP is at a freakish and unsustainable .434. Given that Bates is also controlling the strike zone extremely well and hitting for power it's hard to argue that he's getting by on luck - I'm just saying if Chambers had a few seeing-eye hits, he'd likely be up over .300 in BA. In order to be supportive of Bates since his promotion, I am refraining from inserting a joke about his motel or the creepy deaths occurring therein.

Place is the guy we want to watch of course, as he was the number one pick overall. He's just 18, which if you think about it is almost scary. He's started a little slow but it's very, very early for him. He suffers from having a very dull name, and therefore is difficult to poke fun at, but if he can overcome this handicap I think he'll have a long and productive career.

A lot of the other guys are not adjusting particularly well, as one can see. For some that is not much of a surprise but there are a couple who were probably expected to do better out of the gate. My guy is Khoury; he struck me as a Pedroia-type gamer and I still expect him to pick his game up and make the next step. I think he has a lot more than he's shown thus far, although to be fair he's not quite in the tank or anything. Nevertheless, I predict he starts to improve steadily. Otherwise I will be dumping his ass and adopting slightly odd My Space character Kris Negron.

On to the pitchers:


Cox, Johnson and Masterson are the class of the group, but you might have guessed that already due to Sox Prospects having them listed as the 11th, 12th and 15th top prospects in the system. Again, Sox was moved to Wilmington with surprising alacrity, prompting some pundits to wonder if there was a chance the FO wanted to see him in Boston in September. I struggle with this theory given how much he was used in the College World Series. I think the feeling is that he is simply too advanced for Greenville.

Richardson and Beazley are intriguing. Richardson evidences good control and the ability to strike guys out, but also seems to get ripped on occasion. Beazley's line is solid, but at this level you kind of need a little more than that, and he needs to keep the ball in the park. Still, there is time, and given his college (granted, it was Randolph-Macon) line of 108 Ks to 18 BBs in 88 innings, I think he'll be given full opportunity to show what he can do.

Lawson cannot find the plate. With Clay and Craft waiting in the wings he will need to do better. Actually, even if Don Rickles (may he rest in peace) were all that was waiting in the wings, he'd need to do better.

The interesting and sort of heart-warming line in the table is, naturally, Josh Papelbon's. I won't pull the announcer jinx on him like Orsillo did on Delcarmen yesterday (because Don is a tool), I'll just say that I like it. It seems like it's hard to know what you're going to get with a submariner (for reference see Bradford, Chad) but Josh can compete at this level, that's for sure.

More On Natale

Jeff Natale continues to be one of the more fascinating prospects in the system. Since his promotion to Wilmington his batting average has suffered (he's at around .250) but otherwise he is still pretty astounding at the plate. His OBP is still .417, he is walking 20% of the time, and his IsoD, at .169, is the best of any player in the entire organization, Red Sox included. His Secondary Average is .346, top five in the Sox minor league organization. One has to assume the BA and SLG will come around - it's almost like he's just studying high-A pitching right now. Anyway, somehow this kid has to work up enough defense to find a way into the lineup everyday as a position player. Really fun prospect to follow, regardless.

Red Sox Stats

I am plugging this site because it is sweet. It's as simple as that. Try http://www.redsoxstats.com. Not your average stats site.

Didn't See That One Coming

What to say? Seattle came in hitting like their body parts were falling off during swings, and turned it right around, finishing with a .340 BA and a stunning .424 OBP as a team over the course of the series. The Sox for their part hit .245, although they got on base per usual at .367. Seattle outslugged us .471 to .424. Essentially, looking at those numbers your first thought has to be "well, that explains how we dropped 2 of 3".

The thing is, if you left Friday afternoon at 5pm to fly around the world and came back to find out the Sox dropped two of three, your first thought would probably be "Snyder and the rookie dropped the ball". But of course, nothing could be further from the truth, unless you said "Tito would never prefer Gabe Kapler's bat to Wily Mo's". .

Both Snyder and Gabbard held up well, making the Mariners look like, well, the Mariners - a mediocre offensive team that can be controlled. Certainly, they did not dominate but they gave the team a chance to win, which the relief corps did not. So as not to harp on anyone in particular, since noone performed well in both games, I'll just point out that the collective ERA of the Sox relievers was 7.44 for the series, and then I'll comment that that blows dog. I would rather see Kyle Snyder on the mound every five days until the day they bury my pasty, bloated, seaweed-wrapped ass (I'm just guessing on that last part) than see Julian Tavarez take the mound ever again. I think I've actually said this before, and while sober.

The good part about tonight's game was that they kept fighting. Sort of like Randall "Tex" Cobb did against Larry Holmes. Okay, that metaphor has no real basis but Tex was in Raising Arizona, and I love that movie, and that is the real silver lining today.

It's hard to pinpoint where today's fiasco derailed. Obviously, in the final analysis, you hate to say things like "well, we got beat by Adrian Beltre, Eduardo Perez and Richie Sexson, what're you gonna do?" To me, Adrian Beltre's cartoonish inside-the-parker was just an unnecessary, insulting chapter in a game that disappointed me so many times I actually turned it off to go pull carpet staples from my recently unearthed hardwood floor. That's right; I turned to manual labor instead.

Tomorrow night I won't have that option as I'll be at the Oakland Coliseum watching the team live and wondering between innings how the hell any stadium could suck so badly. I hope I only have to wonder that about the stadium. Looking at the bright side, there's this: A's fans never go to games, and so there are always more rabid Sox fans there acting like monkeys and generally making a drunken nuisance of themselves. I enjoy this, and I think the team does too. Last year Mike Timlin orchestrated the removal of some poor drunken A's fan, an act performed while Timlin simply stood with his arms crossed on the dugout roof taunting the poor hick mercilessly. It was a work of art, and was extremely well received by Sox Nation west-coast.

Oh, yeah, that...

In AA ball today the Portland Sea Dogs were no-hit. Pitcher Miguel Pinango took a perfect game into the 9th when an error ruined it for him. Miguel is not the second coming of Nolan Ryan, so the Sea Dogs are probably not feeling real good about this (like they would if it were Nolan v.2). Still, as DLowe proved, some nights guys put it all together.

My point here is that as tough as the Sox loss was tonight, there were worse outings. It's not much, I know.

Lowell On The Block?

Rumors are abounding that first-half favorite Mike Lowell is being shopped around for starting pitching. Initial rumors, as usual, focused on San Diego, although if they ever had any validity reports are that the talks are stalled, perhaps pending a third team's involvement (per Jayson Stark's ESPN chat). It's hard to know how much of this is just smoke thrown up to influence the Jays in dealing Hillenbrand, but one thing seems apparent: Lowell is in fact on the block.

I count myself one of the number of Lowell's fans. Largely, this is an emotional state where I like that Lowell bounced back from a career-worst year. He's a professional, a good clubhouse guy, a gold-glover at third, and has hit beyond anyone's expectations thus far. I think, just maybe, it's the "thus far", coupled with his $9Mil price tag, that has him being shopped.

Historically Lowell is not a good second-half player. In each of the years 2002-2004 his OPS dropped around 200 points after the All-Star break, which is kind of a collapse. Last year it actually improved, but that was because during the first half of the season he was possessed by Rondell White. His OPS this year dropped from .986 in May to .701 in June, so Theo and co. probably went "uh-oh" and are trying to sell reasonably high, since for July he's back up to .844 (despite being under .600 over the past week like nearly everyone else).

The feeling may be that the writing is on the wall for a poor second half. It's pretty hard to argue with the statistics - Mike has a career second hald OPS of maybe .750, and it's hard to justify paying a guy $9Mil a year for that (or I suppose, $4.5Mil). I am guessing the logic here is that you move Youks over to third, where his .750-.800 OPS will cost far less, and then go get Ryan Shealy using one of the blue-chippers. It's a stretch for me though. I'm not sure that I understand exactly how Lowell gets moved unless you are paying a ton of the freight, and I'm not sure that it makes the team better even if he falls off in the second half since the IF defense gets worse. I would say that I am dubious at best that the FO finalizes a trade I like with him in it.

Won't You Come Home Jeff Bailey, Won't You Come Home?

The other day I talked a little bit about almost-prospect Jeff Bailey. He has intrigued me a little bit, largely because he has no home in the organization, but keeps performing for Pawtucket. He does play a couple positions (mostly 1B and some catcher, looks like) but has DHed for the PawSox. As I noted before the guy can hit. The thing is, he's 27 years old.

It struck me that he reminded me of someone, and that someone was Brian "Cementhead" Daubach. Both guys bounced around a while then figured it out late. Dauber really figured it out at age 26, so he was ahead of Bailey, and his year in AAA was really immense, but Bailey is putting up some decent numbers. Who knows, maybe he can find his way into the bigs yet. Christ, he has to hit better than Doug Miagentsfhhcytucoz, right?


At least, Tito thinks so: ''What Jeff Bailey is," Francona said, ''is a guy I think can hit. I think Jeff Bailey can hit good pitching. I don't want to see him get lost in the shuffle because of what he went through as a catcher. He can hit."

He probably won't hit for the Sox, barring some really bizarre circumstances, but hopefully he'll hit somewhere. Good luck Jeff.

Winning....somehow

The Sox just keep getting it done this week, although they are going to have a tough time of it in Seattle. Snyder pitches tomorrow, which obviously doesn't give one a warm, fuzzy feeling, and Saturday and Sunday they face King Felix and Jarrod Washburn.

Felix has not been lights out in his last few outings, and his season ERA is near five, but he excellent control, misses bats, and as we know the Sox have a history of, ahh, struggling against guys the first time they face them. To add a little flavor to the game it appears that AA Seadogs starter Kason Gabbard will be called up to pitch since Timmeh's rib injury landed him on the DL. This will be a fun game to watch.

Washburn has an ERA of 1.86 in his last three starts, and held the Spanks to just a single run in 6 innings in his last outing. He'll be going against Lester whom as we know is coming of an impressive start against KC.

Seattle, blessedly, is hitting for shit in July, so that gives one hope. They have a team OPS of .661, which is just brutal. Ichiro is basically the only guy on that team to fear, although Betancourt is a promising young IF.

Speaking of hitting for shit, check out these impressive stats, representing the past 30 days:



The words "not good" spring to mind don't they? The K/BB rate is what immeditately jumps out at you, and is plenty troubling. Youks having an OBP under .300 is obviously pretty crappy, and having Crisp, at .307, as your other option to lead off essentially means you're fucked. Papa Jack has some work to do, looks like.

Minor Movement

Down on the farm there was some juggling, as hot bat Aaron Bates was promoted from Lowell to Greenville. Bryce Cox, who has been in pro ball about 4 minutes, was promoted to Wilmington, in spite of not really impressing in a couple outings (1.41 WHIP). He appears to be on the fast track due to his filthy stuff. It's a curious move, I'll be interested to see how he adapts. Lastly (of note anyway) SS Manny Arambarris was promoted to Lowell from the GCL where he was hitting .333 with no pop (.427 SLG). He's a corner IF now so really needs to show some pop to stay there, but at 21 he has a chance to fill out and grow power, I suppose. I'll follow his progress, mostly because I enjoy saying "Arambarris".

Welcome to Boston, KC Royals!

Realistically, a couple wins against Kansas City shouldn't do too much to erase the memory of the Sox being outplayed on nearly every level for 3 of the 4 Oakland games, but it's hard to bitch after Lester and Papelbon combine for a one-hitter. Sure, the Sox bats remained meek, allowing Brandon Duckworth his best outing of the season by far, but I'm content to focus on the positives. It's a win, a great outing by the productively wild Lester, and I saw neither Seanez nor The Jeep. If I were to write a movie script about the game I would entitle it "The Night Without An Anti-Christ". It would be a feel-good comedy, and Jon Lester would be played by Brandon Routh, still wearing the Superman costume.

Right now, we all know where the Sox are. Hanging onto first place in the AL East by a fingernail, down to three starters, and scuffling at the plate. If they were my college rugby team, the clubhouse would have a prominently displayed giant handwritten sign that reads "Sack Up". The sign would most likely have little pieces of hurl on it, but the message would be undiluted.

The short story is these guys simply have to tough it out. There are no deadline deals in today's MLB. There are nearly 20 teams out there with a shot at the playoffs, and the teams who are out of it will be charging a king's ransom for an impact player. Carlos Zambrano is not walking through that door, people.

However, shockingly, there is still a chance Fatty McFatFat will be back in the rotation soon. He is scheduled to throw a simulated game tomorrow, barring a setback in his kitchen tonight, and I can't believe I'm writing this, but his chubby ass might indeed be the cavalry if he can approximate his numbers from last year. With Wake suffering from back problems, and Snyder and Johnson suffering from being Snyder and Johnson, Wells will be warmly welcomed back to the fold. Clement, not so much.

Meantime, the team has to continue to find ways to win. We can hope the Oakland debacle will serve as a reminder of the cost of sloppy, uninspired baseball, especially in light of the rematch next week. Until then we've got to get through some tough games against Texas and Seattle. My assumption is that the return of cartoonish utility man Wily Mo Pena Super Genius will prove to be just the tonic the team needs to catch fire again.

Minor League Notes

Like his fellow first-round pick David Murphy, Jacoby Ellsbury seems to be adjusting to the rarified air of his promotion without issue. Thus far Ellsbury is hitting .400 with 4 SBs in his first 25 ABs.

Murphy himself has improved in every offensive category since his promotion to AAA Pawtucket, and seems determined to shake his projection as a fourth outfielder (although Chip Ambres says "hi"). Thus far in Pawtucket he has an OPS of over .900, but more importantly has cut his K/BB rate way down, walking 24 times to 34 Ks, versus 11/29 in AA.

Favored son Dustin Pedroia has fully recovered from his injury and after a slow start to the season is now htting above.300 and has an OBP of .384. The power is not great, as one might expect from a guy of his size, but he continues to impress with his batting eye, and has walked 35 times to just 24 strikeouts.

Interestingly the only comparable K/BB rate on the team belongs to Alex Machado who has walked 35 times to 27 Ks. When we talk about a lack of power, however, Machado's name comes up pretty quickly, as his SLG is .337.

The other name down in Pawtucket is the little discussed Jeff Bailey. Bailey is a pretty non-defensive 1B/DH, but he can hit. He strikes out 25% of the time, but given his .514 SLG and .383 OBP, it's perfectly acceptable. In fact, his numbers compare quite favorably to Roberto Petagine's 2005 AAA numbers, but he has the misfortune of being blocked by crowd favorite Youks instead of fat miscreant Millar. Essentially he's a back-up bat, and nothing more, but he's a good back-up bat.

The rookies are starting to flatten out down in Lowell and the GCL, I'll take a look at them again in a week or so. Also, there are a couple of possible signees still under construction (notably Giardino and Kalish), so hopefully something will work out there. I'll post as soon as I find anything out.

Red Sox Prove Murphy's Law (Again), Lose To A's

Wow. Last night was a head-shaker, wasn't it? You have Lester, a guy who is going pretty well in spite of his bizarre on-again off-again relationship with the strike zone, versus Esteban Loioza, a guy who has a pretty steady relationship going with Suck. You have a two-run lead going into the 7th in spite of leaving eleven baserunners stranded through that time. Then it all unravels.

Stranding guys is not at all out of the ordinary for this team. Historically it's one of their strengths, and getting a lot of guys on base means you'll strand some guys. It's disappointing that as a team they're hitting just .266 with RISP thus far into the season, but what can you do?

However, two-run errors by Loretta are certainly surprising. Having Willie Harris, whose only reason for being is baserunning, picked off first with nobody out is a little unnerving. Allowing Ronald McDonald to steal his first base of the season in a one-run game sort of bothers one a bit, doesn't it? I mean, that is just sloppy baseball.

I'm going to chalk it up to rust after the break, but when you're playing the A's and you're looking at Loioza, Zito, Haren, Blanton you kind of need to beat Loioza, don't you? At least, you should try.

The bright spot in the game was Varitek: two hits, two BBs and an RBI. Outside of he and Ortiz, guys did not look sharp. Manny in particular was missing the exact pitches he wanted, which doesn't warm the heart. Still, it's one game.

Looking further afield, a growing concern in my mind is Youks' slump. He is 5 for 39 and hitting .128 in July, and looks to be moving his front foot all over the place before he swings. In this lineup he needs to do two things up top - get on base, and drive in runs. He is not driving the ball right now, and this is hurting us. He is still trying to get on base through the walk but pitchers aren't afraid to throw him strikes so it's more difficult. We know he's a student of hitting though; he'll come around.

Breslow Promoted

The Sox brought LHP Craig Breslow up for a cup of coffee today. Craig has been doing a good job in relief for the PawSox, and is 5-1 thus far. In 45IP he's got a 50/17 BB/K figure, and overall has pitched very consistently throughout the season. He doesn't have a significant split against lefties, except perhaps that he likes to walk them, so I'm not sure how he'll be used if it all. Still, I'm glad he's getting a chance; he's got some ability and he'll get his feet wet.

It should also be noted that Craig is a pointy-headed former Yale student who loves to talk bonds and valences in the dugout, which makes him a teammate and crowd favorite. He was selected for the IL All-Star team, and although he did not make an appearance, he was able to successfully impart an understanding of Van der Waal's Forces to Andy Marte by using as metaphor Andy's easily severed relationship with the Red Sox organization.

Barry "U.S" Bonds

As a Red Sox fan living in San Francisco I have a somewhat unique perspective on the entire Barry Bonds fiasco so I am going to take ten minutes here and chip in. Not because I am not sick and tired of the entire affair, but because there is one particular aspect of it that is driving me crazy.

First off, let me be clear: I think Barry is a tool. He is a megalomanic, an enfant terrible, a deranged psychopath. Take your pick. Second, I think he knowingly used performance enhancing drugs. I think that because there is no other conclusion to come to unless you are willfully deceiving yourself. Third, I think when healthy Barry can hit a baseball, as well as anyone playing today.

So Barry will likely be indicted for perjury and/or tax evasion, and that's probably okay. In fact, in the grand scheme of things, it seems like that's a pretty decent deal for ol' Barry.

Here's the thing that bothers me. If one stipulates that my three points are true, and one agrees that Barry deserves his punishment, then how in hell is Jason Giambi getting a free pass? He absolutely qualifies for point #2, and that's the only one that's proscribed anywhere! This is the guy that kept the Bosox out of the 2003 World Series while at the very height of his PED abuse, and nobody says jack! He gained 40 pounds of muscle in three months, and nobody says jack! He is single-handedly keeping the Yankees in the AL East race, and nodoby says jack. I can only assume this is because of his heartfelt non-apology for using steroids.

Basically, Giambi IS Barry Bonds, except that he doesn't abrade the press. He doesn't qualify for point #1, and that seems to be getting him off the hook. So, logically, Barry is really being persecuted for being a douche, which, in a vacuum, I'm fine with. Unfortunately we are not in said vacuum.

Now, I'm glad that people are trying to clean up baseball, and certainly I cannot defend Barry Bonds, but I'll say this - the Giants are not going anywhere, with or without their 42-year old problem. If the Yankees somehow sneak into the playoffs because they were carried by a guy who is a paramount poster child for the abuse of performance-enhancing drugs, there should be a lot of pissed off fans in the town that gets bumped. I just hope it ain't us.