Well, that was crap.

Is Daisuke Matsuzaka being hazed?
You could make the argument. Maybe he was too successful in his first start and his teammates decided to cut him down a notch. Let's see...

Against Seattle the Sox managed one hit versus the very talented - and morbidly obese - Felix Hernandez. Watching the game, one noted that King Felix was a very good pitcher, and one also noted that the Red Sox, as a team, were utterly incapable of doing anything with very hittable pitches, straight fastballs, on the inner half of the plate. This was easily explained away on Sportscenter by the pundits, who - using ESPN's cartoonishly juiced velocity gun (I mean, really people) - argued that his fastballs were consistently 99 MPH and his sliders consistently 93 and 94, and certainly unhittable. It should be noted that on various highlights the gun showed Hernandez's change-up to be clocked at 89-91 MPH. Credible? No. Nevertheless, one cannot argue that the kid has great stuff, and if his having the body and fortitude of a hippopotamus pinata doesn't cut his career short (say hello to your cousins, Colon and Sabathia!), he could really be one to reckon with. I'm betting he chunks out, though. He's only 21, and already one of the fattest non-comedians I have ever seen on live TV.

In the Seattle game, there was a weird dynamic on the Dice-K side. I only saw the innings 5-9, but I was absolutely shocked by the pitch selection I was seeing. When any pitcher gives up a hit to Adrian Beltre, it should be cause for concern. When someone of Dice-K's ability does, you know there is a specific reason (and you suspect Vegas is involved). And there was. Beltre sat on the very same pitch he had watched Dice-K throw as the last three consecutive offerings in the Ichiro at-bat. Change-up; low in the zone (Beltre's favorite). With Beltre on second, Jose "I Really, Really Prefer Fastballs" Vidro got a fastball up around the chest. To me, watching with the game on mute, this was plenty of information to have me indict Varitek, but I have since read that Matsuzaka was shaking him off. So the jury's out there.

Nevertheless, that game was just awful. Matsuzaka pitched well enough to win despite not having great stuff, and the bats were not there. Overmatched, maybe, but at that point there were doubts lingering from watching certain key at-bats. Was the offense overly concerned with going the other way? Why?

Cut to tonight. Matsuzaka again pitches more than well enought to win, but this time he's pitted against poorly respected shitbum Gustavo Chacin. So when he loses, and moreover, the Sox again appear to have a contagion the symptoms of which are attempting to take inside fastballs to right field - but instead miss them or pop them up - I become suspicious.

"Where have I seen this before?" I think. "Was it that episode of Kojak where he posed as a chubby bald lefty for a Canadian baseball team?" I queried. "No, that's not it, you idiot!" I then cruelly rejoindered, like a douche. But wait..."Of course!! They were missing fastballs middle inside last week too, as if they would be fined if they pulled a pitch down the left field line! especially that chubby bald righty, Youjak!"

Of course, I am being somewhat facetious, however, the fact remains - prior to the seventh inning, two balls were hit to left: a double by Crisp and a single by WMPK. Chacin operates in the low-90s at best, so I struggle to understand the desire to go the other way. All in all, the only logical conclusion I can come up with is that the guys are hazing Dice-K by losing him a couple of games they could have one. In the end, I think this will make a better guy, and will help him network for a sales job after baseball. So I guess I'm behind it, in a condescending sort of way.

Shhhh...here comes Hansack..

Sure, he looked great in Spring Training. Easy, repeatable delivery. Throws three pitches for strikes, apparently at will. No emotion to speak of. In short, he is the Anti-Tavarez. But what do a few spring training outings mean?

Well, at this point, Devern Hansack has pitched 10.2 innings in AAA. His strike to ball ratio is at nearly 70%. He has struck out 2o batters. He has allowed only one earned run. He is, in short, at this point ridiculous. Now, this is the smallest of sample sizes, possibly ever. But if like me you really like what the former Nicaraguan lobsterman looks like on the mound, buy your bandwagon seats now.

2007 Red Sox Pitching Staff

A tardy closing to my look at the 25-man roster for 2007. It was helpful to have a few games I could watch to see the pitchers in game situations.

Starters:

Curt Schilling: 2007 ZiPS Projection 15-7 W-L | 3.98 ERA

This is a pretty standard projection for Schill, matching his three-year (2004-2006) averages very closely. At this point I think we all know what we can expect from a healthy Curt Schilling. The wrinkles this year are his advancing age (again), his attempt to work in a new change-up, and of course any stress that might result from the 2008 contract situation.

Curt's first start was an inmitigated disaster. He couldn't locate the fastball, which is absolutely necessary, and the experimental change was tattooed. The rumor based on the announcers was that he was tipping the change, and certainly that makes some sense. He looked much better tonight, obviously, and in spite of the dinger by Red Sox killer Frank Catalanotto (Catalanotto must have his hookers wear Sox gear before coming to bed, I swear to you, his OPS against us is 1.2 and change). the change over the course of the game looked useful. Still, it's not vintage.

The short story is this - Curt needs to win 15 for this team to have a chance. Even Joe Morgan recognizes this, which means it's a very simple thing.

Josh Beckett: 2007 ZiPS Projection 14-10 W-L | 4.55 ERA

Well, it probably goes without saying that if we get two years like this from Beckett, he is not worth Ramirez and Sanchez. I think we're going to see better than this from Beckett this year. He has had a year to adjust, should be a little more mature, and I think new pitching coach Farrell will be a benefit to him.

Beckett looked very good in his first start, keeping his mid-90s fastball down in the zone and complementing it with a hook that was just nasty at times. Beckett doesn't need to be as much of a "pitcher" as Schilling is, but he has to locate the fastball. That will be the key for him this year. That, and Archie comics.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 2007 ZiPS Projection 15-8 W-L | 3.44 ERA

At this point it's not surprising that Dice-K projects to have the best numbers on the team. He is the real deal. Sit back and enjoy the maestro.

Timmeh:2007 ZiPS Projection 11-12 W-L | 5.16 ERA

Are these crappy numbers? Hells yeah. Might this be just what Timmeh puts together this year? Yup. A healthy Wake should go about .500, mid-to-high 4s ERA. Knuckleballers shouldn't regress as other pitchers do as they age, and I suspect that regression is built into this projection, so I'm expecting a bit better. That being said, we are all familiar with Timmeh's Jekyll and Hyde act. It's a crapshoot.

Essentially you get a decent #4 at a good price with Timmeh, but of course you also get Doug Mirabelli, who is just awful in every way. I love Wake, and he is the consummate Boston guy, but if Snyder comes around, Lester comes back, and Hansack looks like he looks, it might be getting a little cramped for a pitcher who makes you waste a roster spot for his chubby binky.

Julian Tavarez: 2007 ZiPs...ahh, I'm not even gonna bother

Tavarez has no business being our #5 while Snyder and Hansack are available. He doesn't strike guys out, and just cannot consistently throw strikes. Unless the idea was to let him carry over his lucky streak from last year in order to trade him, I am insulted that he's in this position. Hansack throws three pitches for strikes regularly, has a smooth repeatable delivery, and looks pretty much unflappable. We should be watching him pitch every fifth day. Also, the guy was catching lobsters in Nicaragua like two years ago. "Yeah, hi, Disney?..."

(Note: I don't want people to think I'm anti-Tavarez. Sure, last year I referred to him as the Anti-Christ for several months, and repeatedly compare him to Popeye's dog-like creature The Jeep, but I can never turn my back on the man who punched a guy out at home plate just for scoring on him. Genius.)

Bullpen:

Let's work back from the top...

Jon Papelbon: 2007 Shea Projection 30 S | 2.10 ERA

It would be truly remarkable for Paps to duplicate his rookie season, but I think he clearly gives us what we need in the back of the bullpen - a reliable, intimidating closer. I think we probably see him in fewer games, and I think the league adjusts to him, and that (plus beer) is what is generating the line above.

Joel Pineiro: 2007 Shea Projections 4 S | 3.97 ERA

I am pulling this out of my ass. Basically, I think Pineiro sees a few low-lev save opportunities to see if he can bump up his trade value, or provide a safety option if Paps' shoulder twinges. He is a complete mystery right now. he has had a couple good outings where his stuff looked pretty good, and then of course sucked so badly tonight that the temperature dropped 5 degrees in the stadium while he was on the mound. Jury still out, but... I'm leaning towards shitbum. So I guess, really, he's not so much a complete mystery.

Mike Timlin (currently rehabbing): 2007 ZiPS Projection 6-4 W-L | 4.55 ERA

Like many of you, I am disturbed by the image of Timlin standing on the mound, staring into Varitek's crotch to get the call, unaware that there is a bony seven-foot figure in a dark cowl holding a giant scythe standing directly behind him. At some point a guy who makes his living in the upper half of the strike zone will run out of time, and you have to wonder if age 41 might be Mike's last call. This would really suck for us, because one thing is certain - Tito will be the last to know.

Brendan Donnelly: 2007 ZiPS Projection 4-4 W-L | 4.34 ERA

Donnelly is a classic case of getting a guy on the downslope and hoping he plateaus for a year or two while he's still pretty good (yes, this happens enough for there to be classic cases). And Donnelly was pretty good last year, despite having most of his peripherals drop. When you look at his delivery, it's difficult to understand why he hasn't exploded at some point, but he's been pretty healthy for the last few years. If Tito isn't a complete imbecile, Donnelly gets most of the 8th inning opportunities. Righties hit him pretty good (.861 OPS) last year, so that will be something to watch, but you'd rather see him out there than Timlin at this point.

J.C Romero: 2007 ZiPS Projection 4-3 W-L | 4.43 ERA

Romero is a reclamation project. Really, I guess he's a LOOGY, especially if you look at his 2006 splits (RHH went for a .1029 OPS against last year, so basically every righty was an all-star), although they were more severe than his historicals. Still, he is the absolute last guy you want pitching to a right-handed power hitter named Sammy Sosa. He was very good in 2004 and the Sox are hoping he figures out how to replicate that performance. With Lopez pitching as well as he has been, Romero is going to have to show improvement (caviat is that Lopez has a minor-league option left, but the Sox are still without a defensive OF which probably won't last).

Javier Lopez: 2007 ZiPS Projection 2-2 W-L | 4.82 ERA

Lopez was acquired as a LOOGY but has shown the ability to pitch to both sides of the plate with his underarm delivery. He doesn't get hit hard, but has command issues. If he can figure out how to throw strikes consistently he's a valuable bullpen piece with his pitch movement. Bottom line; he's another guy who is on the tightrope to stick. I tend to think unless Romero really collapses, Lopez will see one more stop in AAA.

Kyle Snyder: 2007 ZiPS Projection 7-6 W-L | 4.86 ERA

I believe this projection is for Snyder as a spot starter. Snyder is a compelling guy, a former first-rounder who has struggled with health issues for his career. As we saw in flashes last year, he can pitch, with a decent fastball and exceptional curve. He appears to struggle mentally at times, which working with Farrell and Tek can only help. I like Snyder but as the swing-man in the bullpen, if we see him coming in it means the game has gone sideways, in most cases. I find it an interesting side story to the season, watching his progression (or not).

Note: by all accounts new pitching coach John Farrell is doing a great job. I think we will look back at that decision with gratitude a few years from now. His methodologies are used throughout the organization, so when prospects get to the big league club they are already in synch. I really like the way he has gone about his business.

2007 Red Sox Infield

I'll start with these guys since I'm predicting the least amount of flux in the infield throughout spring training, and I don't want to have to keep going back and forth with updates based on who's looking like the closer, or the 4th outfielder, or the Fat Elvis Presley, etc.

Catcher
Arguably the most important defensive position on the field when one takes game-calling into the picture.

Varitek: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .266 | OBP .357 | SLG .456

The Captain's offensive productivity dropped off last year, possibly as a result of injury, but he has come back this year stating he feels better than he has in years. Still, he's 35 years old playing a position that often correlates with steep performance declines for players older than 30. Varitek is not a normal athlete though, in terms of training and preparation. Until proven otherwise there is no reason to believe he cannot have a bounce-back year offensively.

Defensively, he remains the benchmark for game preparation and pitch-calling in the major leagues. With Matsuzaka coming on board for his first year in MLB, there can be no other catcher you would rather have behind the plate.

Good Herald article/puff piece on Varitek here. As one would expect he doesn't use the injuries last year as an excuse for the offensive struggles, and as usual he sounds like the kind of guy you just have absolute faith in. And, as usual, he doesn't seem like the guy you'd want with you in Vegas at 2am, unless of course you had attracted the unwanted attention of the security crew.

My personal prediction is that 'Tek ends up around where ZiPS has him. The swing is a little long, and the high inside heat will burn him a little more, but he will get on base, and when it's all said and done he is the Captain, and as long as he plays this team has a chance.

Doug Mirabelli: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .214 | OBP .304 | SLG .377

Doug Mirabelli is the long-snapper of MLB. He does exactly one thing, catch the knuckleball, and apparently he does it well enough that he makes 3/4 of a million dollars to do only that while causing people to suffer cerebral edema just watching him hit. I personally find it hard to believe that catching the knuckler is so difficult that no other catcher can learn to do it (since Varitek did it just fine before Dougie came along), but evidently there is some "comfort" level that helps Timmeh here, so we get another year of Mr. Chubs. If we only get Dougie once every 5 or 6 days it's a manageable hit, but anything beyond that is just brutal.

George Kottaras: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .241 | OBP .331 | SLG .374

Yes, the kid who's never been higher than AA is projected to hit better than Mirabelli. Shocking? No. My mom is projected to hit better than Dougie and she hasn't stepped into the batter's box since I bruised her ribs with an errant heater in 6th grade.

Kottaras is the heir-apparent to Varitek unless some odd things happen with Wagner, Weeden, Egan or Otness. That said, he does not project to approach Varitek's abilities defensively, at least at this point. The Sox obviously hope 'Tek can work with him to instill some of those traits, hence his invite to S.T. Kottaras is a cerebral hitter, though, and may be able to transform himself defensively through hard work and tutelage. It's something to watch this year. He'll play every day in Pawtucket. The interesting thing to note about Kottaras is that he does have some experience catching the knuckler (caught Steve Sparks for a bit in the minors) so if Dougie has an "incident" at the Pizzeria Regina, he might be able to caddy for Wake.

When all is said and done, we got Kottaras for a month of Fatty McFatfat. It's hard not to like that deal.

First Base
Typically an offensive position, the Sox do not have a typical solution in place.

Youks: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .276 | OBP .383 | SLG .428

Yes, Youks is not your prototpyical masher at first. His IsoP of .149 ranks 21st out of all MLB first basemen. But his Runs Created, which to some extent might be considered the "bottom line", is 12th in all MLB. Given what we're paying him, that is not a bad return. Nevertheless, the Sox are unusual for a big market club in that the two corner IF positions do not contribute a ton of slugging to the lineup. Ideally, we'd have Youks at 3rd and a Teixeira (or Papi, if his knees weren't the Caine Mutiny) at first. As discussed, however, it may be easier to upgrade at third.

Looking deeper on the bright side, Youks is a very mediocre defender according to the available metrics. So there's that. I'm kidding, of course, but I think it's important to recognize that while Youks is a very likeable, hard-working guy who maximized his talent, he is not a long-term solution at first for this club, in all likelihood. Still, I expect he puts up slightly improved numbers from last years', and is a solid all-around contributor to the 2007 effort.

Eric Hinske: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .256 | OBP .332 | SLG .406

Looking at the horrific mediocrity of these numbers, it is hard to understand why we would be paying Hinske $2.8M next year. The reason is that he hits right-handed pitching (OPS of .896 vs RHP last year), will take a lot of pitches, and can play 1B, 3B and OF (none particularly well, although the stats point to OF as his strongest). He is the uber-platoon player. Also, as previously mentioned in this space, he has a giant Rasputin head, and in tough times that can be used to instill fear into your opponent, or small children, as the situation dictates.

Second Base:
The red-headed stepchild of the infield. As Mark Loretta proved last year, you can get by with a gargoyle or lawn-gnome at second if they can turn the DP.

Dustin Pedroia 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .274 | OBP .347 | SLG .394

After being baptized by a 2005 that was characterized by injury and bad luck at the plate (his oft-harped upon - by me - .188 BABIP after his call-up), Pedroia dedicated himself to training in the offseason and revamped his body in preparation for his first year starting in the bigs. Frankly put, there are vastly differing opinions on what to expect out of Pedroia out there, but personally I think his glove is just fine for 2B, and I think he'll hit well. He's simply never not hit. Even when he struggled last year after the call-up he had the lowest K% on the entire team. The only real impact was that he became less selective and made poor contact on pitches he should have taken. I think he'll correct that this year, and hit a lot of line drives. This kid should be solid, and fun to root for.

Alex Cora 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .250 | OBP .333 | SLG .344

The most overpaid player on the team in terms of WARP-1 valuation is also the person most likely to become a solid coach in the organization (or worse, someone else's). This chat wrap excerpt from Gammons pretty much says it all:

Chris_2:	This Alex Cora for Kaz Matsui rumor sounds bogus to me. Is there any truth and/or logic to this rumor?
PeterGammons:	The Mets would love to do it but the Red Sox love Alex Cora, the manager agrees with Paul Lo Duca that he is the smartest player in the game. Matsui is a huge question mark. The Mets throw everything out there, so I'm sure they tried.

Cora is below average at two positions, but does the little things. He is a bench player and a good guy to have in the clubhouse. Not a problem.

Shortstop
The debate over defense vs. offense will rage on every time Lugo bobbles a ball, but no matter what side of the fence you're on SS is a lynchpin position.

Julio Lugo: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .292 | OBP .355 | SLG .407

Lugo is gonna be the guy to watch this year. His ZiPS projections are nice, nothing to write home about, but Eric Van over at SOSH (thread here) has put a lot more time into Lugo's projections and came up with .319 / .382 / .482 as his adjusted projection. That would obviously be a pleasant surprise to most of us, but there can be no question that Lugo is a gifted athlete who will fare better in Fenway (he always has) than at the Trop. If he stays healthy his production could well be the difference-maker for the team this season.

Lugo adds another dimension to the offense. He is a true lead-off hitter, having put up much better numbers in that role (career he's .291 / .352 / .434 leading off an inning and .271 / .335 / .391 otherwise), and even if he doesn't steal has the speed to make an impact on the basepaths. He also allows Crisp to move lower in the order, which may benefit the newly-fro'd one by allowing him to see more fastballs, and perhaps run more.

Cora is supposedly the back-up at SS but I can hardly credit that plan for any real length of time. I think it more likely Pedroia moves over and we deal for a Graffanino-type journeyman or may-have-missed prospect. At last glance our own Jed Lowrie was nowhere near ready for prime-time.

Third Base
The hot corner is another offensively minded position where the Sox are a little lacking with Lowell. However, Lowell's glove cannot be criticized.

Mike Lowell: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .277 | OBP .342 | SLG .465

Lowell is kind of a cottage speculation industry. Much about him is known: he's a great teammate, plays gold glove defense, is a hot 1st half-player, and sports an inexplicable John Waters moustache as part of his van dyke. However, ever since his mid-boggingly awful 2005, the vultures have been circling. He fell off a cliff in the second half of last year, as per usual, dropping 136 points in OPS after the All-Star break. Everyone is wondering - when will the slump become the norm (for reference see Millar, Kevin), or when will he figure out how to hit for a full season? Given his age, more of us are wondering the former.

Nevertheless, Lowell will be the third baseman until further notice, and frankly if he is not traded by the end of S.T. he probably won't be. You want him for the first part of the year, not the second. It's fun to conjecture that he might be better off with more days of rest earlier in the year, but what manager wants to sit a guy who's tearing it up? Ride the hot hand - that's the rule of thumb. Nevertheless, Hinske may see some action against LHPs to spell Youks and/or Lowell, and once again we will watch Mikey play with our fingers crossed, and play the conjecture game.

As an aside, there is no one in the minors who projects to be even close to matching Lowell's production. Top 3B prospect Chad Spann struck out in nearly 25% of his ABs in AA last year and was lackluster against AFL talent. Basically, root for Mikey.

Next....the outfield.