The news came in yesterday: Clemens heads back to the Toilet. I was a little surprised, but only in that I thought it would be a few weeks until he made his decision. One thing I can say with certainty: I knew he would not be pitching for the Boston Red Sox in 2007.
It was always between the Yankees and Houston, and what they could offer the game's greatest (or most mercenary) arm-for-hire. And when I say offer, do not cloud the issue with things like "history" or "Championships" or "fans" - this was a retail decision. The Yankees would outbid everyone, that was a mortal lock. But Houston is in Clemens' back yard, and there was a convenience factor there. Unfortunately, they could not pony up the cash, and they suck. In the end, Roger went for the cash, as always.
The Sox were never really in the bidding - we didn't need him enough to mortgage the farm like New York did, we are inconveniently located, Dan Shaughnessy works in Boston, and Clemens hates Boston like Bush hates education. Sure, Clemens' uttered a few trite sentimental phrases, but at this point one can almost believe that was just to get the more gullible fans' hopes up so he could shatter them. Is it possible he was still exacting revenge on the Hub, after so much time?
The question I would ask is: why wouldn't he? The key tenet in understanding the mind of a top-level professional athlete is this - they are the center of the universe. Some people, especially in Boston, seem to feel that since they buy the tickets, memorabilia, and overpriced vittles that pay the athlete, this engenders a synchronous relationship between the player and the fans. And sometimes, like in the case of a Trot Nixon or Tim Wakefield, the player has enough moral fiber to make this true.
In the case of a Roger Clemens, this is not true. The fan perspective, rather finely put by Bill Simmons on numerous occasions, just doesn't seem to resonate with Roger. To Red Sox Nation, Clemens essentially tanked his last few years in Boston, boozing and whoring (according to many anecdotal references) his way through the season before moving on to Toronto and suddenly working his ass off to win Cy Youngs, and then committing the ultimate betrayal by going to New York. It was inexcusable, a shockingly vengeant "fuck you" to the fans who brought him into this world as a young rookie in 1984 at the tender age of 21, and lavished love and support on the pitcher through his 13 years in the organization.
To be fair to Clemens, there is a third person in the equation - our beloved, departed Dan Duquette, who after badly misjudging Clemens in the negotiations that allowed him to move to Toronto said that he would not give out long contracts to players in "the twilight" of their career. The bad blood between Duquette and Clemens probably eased the latter's transition to the Evil Empire. After his move to Toronto Clemens said of Duquette "He wanted his team and he wanted some other guys he brought in for Mo [Vaughn] and everybody. It was an easy decision. It wasn't a hard decision at all for me."
We all know the Duke could be a dick, and in the best of times came across as a robot invented to destroy the earth. But Clemens' sentiment points out to the average fan that in Clemens' mind there were only two factors involved in his decision - money, and Duquette. The fans were not at all an issue - they are not even mentioned here. Even if he thought the fans were a distant, distant third in the equation, he could have said "in spite of the way the negotiations panned out, I do have some regret for the fans of Boston" or something. But no - nothing. This is what galls us, years later. And having been called on it, many times in fact, a competitive, me-first guy like Clemens would be sure to take an aggressive stance against Boston as a whole. Which he appears to have done.
Make no mistake, if Theo and John Henry had opened the purse wide enough, ol' Roger would have come back, and in his cagier old age would be saying all the right things. But it would have been a stunning outlay of money; one that the current pitching staff simply does not warrant. In any case, you can be certain of this: even if Clemens were to have come back and pitched his final game as a member of the Boston Red Sox, you and I, the trusting fan, would not have factored into the decision.
Ellsbury Quickens
Jacoby Ellsbury was promoted to Pawtucker last week, after just destroying AA ball. He hit .452, with a .518 OBP, and .644 SLG in 17 games. In 3 games in AAA he is hitting .333 with a .467 OBP due to collecting 3 walks in 15 PAs. This probably spells r-e-l-e-a-s-e for Alex Ochoa, and a move to a corner OF position for Murphy. Also, Coco Crisp may see a sign posted in his locker shortly that reads "Objects in rear view mirror are closer than they appear".
Moss Rolls
Nearly forgotten man Brandon Moss has apparently made the decision to stand up. Through just over 100 ABs Moss's bat has shone. His 1.034 OPS leads the team by more than 100 pts. His 7 HRs are 4 more than the next highest total. Better yet, his 19/25 BB/K rate is balanced and reflective of the organization's principles of approach. A hundred-twenty plate appearances is not a buttload of data, but it's significant enough to surmise that Moss might be maturing into a real asset. He turns 24 in September, and could see the bigs late next year if this continues. The question is: will it be with the Sox?
Buchholz Who?
When Clay Buchholz was promoted to Portland, his rotation partner Michael Bowden was left to move to a hitter's dream park as a Lancaster Jethawk. The average ERA of the Jethawks' pitchers, not including that of Michael Bowden, is 5.57. Michael Bowden's ERA is 1.62 (4th best in the league), with a WHIP of 1.05 (5th best). His 9.1 K/9 is tied for third among the league's starters.
But Bowden is at a serious disadvantage.
The term "park factor" is used to indicate how a particular ballpark affects certain activities, with a 1.0 being average. Lancaster's run factor is 1.25, it's HR factor is 1.56, and the K factor is .81. It jacks up runs scored and HRs (obviously this is causal to the Runs factor), while depressing Ks. To put this in perspective, the Jethawks have 5 players with an OPS above 1.000, and 7 with an OPS above .950.
I probably would not argue that Buchholz has a higher ceiling than Bowden, based on his build and athleticism, but I might argue that Bowden has been more impressive this year given his situation in Lancaster. He really seems to understand how to pitch. I think we'll be seeing him in Portland shortly, and probably in Bostong ere long.
Monday, May 07, 2007
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Well, that was crap.
Is Daisuke Matsuzaka being hazed?
You could make the argument. Maybe he was too successful in his first start and his teammates decided to cut him down a notch. Let's see...
Against Seattle the Sox managed one hit versus the very talented - and morbidly obese - Felix Hernandez. Watching the game, one noted that King Felix was a very good pitcher, and one also noted that the Red Sox, as a team, were utterly incapable of doing anything with very hittable pitches, straight fastballs, on the inner half of the plate. This was easily explained away on Sportscenter by the pundits, who - using ESPN's cartoonishly juiced velocity gun (I mean, really people) - argued that his fastballs were consistently 99 MPH and his sliders consistently 93 and 94, and certainly unhittable. It should be noted that on various highlights the gun showed Hernandez's change-up to be clocked at 89-91 MPH. Credible? No. Nevertheless, one cannot argue that the kid has great stuff, and if his having the body and fortitude of a hippopotamus pinata doesn't cut his career short (say hello to your cousins, Colon and Sabathia!), he could really be one to reckon with. I'm betting he chunks out, though. He's only 21, and already one of the fattest non-comedians I have ever seen on live TV.
In the Seattle game, there was a weird dynamic on the Dice-K side. I only saw the innings 5-9, but I was absolutely shocked by the pitch selection I was seeing. When any pitcher gives up a hit to Adrian Beltre, it should be cause for concern. When someone of Dice-K's ability does, you know there is a specific reason (and you suspect Vegas is involved). And there was. Beltre sat on the very same pitch he had watched Dice-K throw as the last three consecutive offerings in the Ichiro at-bat. Change-up; low in the zone (Beltre's favorite). With Beltre on second, Jose "I Really, Really Prefer Fastballs" Vidro got a fastball up around the chest. To me, watching with the game on mute, this was plenty of information to have me indict Varitek, but I have since read that Matsuzaka was shaking him off. So the jury's out there.
Nevertheless, that game was just awful. Matsuzaka pitched well enough to win despite not having great stuff, and the bats were not there. Overmatched, maybe, but at that point there were doubts lingering from watching certain key at-bats. Was the offense overly concerned with going the other way? Why?
Cut to tonight. Matsuzaka again pitches more than well enought to win, but this time he's pitted against poorly respected shitbum Gustavo Chacin. So when he loses, and moreover, the Sox again appear to have a contagion the symptoms of which are attempting to take inside fastballs to right field - but instead miss them or pop them up - I become suspicious.
"Where have I seen this before?" I think. "Was it that episode of Kojak where he posed as a chubby bald lefty for a Canadian baseball team?" I queried. "No, that's not it, you idiot!" I then cruelly rejoindered, like a douche. But wait..."Of course!! They were missing fastballs middle inside last week too, as if they would be fined if they pulled a pitch down the left field line! especially that chubby bald righty, Youjak!"
Of course, I am being somewhat facetious, however, the fact remains - prior to the seventh inning, two balls were hit to left: a double by Crisp and a single by WMPK. Chacin operates in the low-90s at best, so I struggle to understand the desire to go the other way. All in all, the only logical conclusion I can come up with is that the guys are hazing Dice-K by losing him a couple of games they could have one. In the end, I think this will make a better guy, and will help him network for a sales job after baseball. So I guess I'm behind it, in a condescending sort of way.
Shhhh...here comes Hansack..
Sure, he looked great in Spring Training. Easy, repeatable delivery. Throws three pitches for strikes, apparently at will. No emotion to speak of. In short, he is the Anti-Tavarez. But what do a few spring training outings mean?
Well, at this point, Devern Hansack has pitched 10.2 innings in AAA. His strike to ball ratio is at nearly 70%. He has struck out 2o batters. He has allowed only one earned run. He is, in short, at this point ridiculous. Now, this is the smallest of sample sizes, possibly ever. But if like me you really like what the former Nicaraguan lobsterman looks like on the mound, buy your bandwagon seats now.
You could make the argument. Maybe he was too successful in his first start and his teammates decided to cut him down a notch. Let's see...
Against Seattle the Sox managed one hit versus the very talented - and morbidly obese - Felix Hernandez. Watching the game, one noted that King Felix was a very good pitcher, and one also noted that the Red Sox, as a team, were utterly incapable of doing anything with very hittable pitches, straight fastballs, on the inner half of the plate. This was easily explained away on Sportscenter by the pundits, who - using ESPN's cartoonishly juiced velocity gun (I mean, really people) - argued that his fastballs were consistently 99 MPH and his sliders consistently 93 and 94, and certainly unhittable. It should be noted that on various highlights the gun showed Hernandez's change-up to be clocked at 89-91 MPH. Credible? No. Nevertheless, one cannot argue that the kid has great stuff, and if his having the body and fortitude of a hippopotamus pinata doesn't cut his career short (say hello to your cousins, Colon and Sabathia!), he could really be one to reckon with. I'm betting he chunks out, though. He's only 21, and already one of the fattest non-comedians I have ever seen on live TV.
In the Seattle game, there was a weird dynamic on the Dice-K side. I only saw the innings 5-9, but I was absolutely shocked by the pitch selection I was seeing. When any pitcher gives up a hit to Adrian Beltre, it should be cause for concern. When someone of Dice-K's ability does, you know there is a specific reason (and you suspect Vegas is involved). And there was. Beltre sat on the very same pitch he had watched Dice-K throw as the last three consecutive offerings in the Ichiro at-bat. Change-up; low in the zone (Beltre's favorite). With Beltre on second, Jose "I Really, Really Prefer Fastballs" Vidro got a fastball up around the chest. To me, watching with the game on mute, this was plenty of information to have me indict Varitek, but I have since read that Matsuzaka was shaking him off. So the jury's out there.
Nevertheless, that game was just awful. Matsuzaka pitched well enough to win despite not having great stuff, and the bats were not there. Overmatched, maybe, but at that point there were doubts lingering from watching certain key at-bats. Was the offense overly concerned with going the other way? Why?
Cut to tonight. Matsuzaka again pitches more than well enought to win, but this time he's pitted against poorly respected shitbum Gustavo Chacin. So when he loses, and moreover, the Sox again appear to have a contagion the symptoms of which are attempting to take inside fastballs to right field - but instead miss them or pop them up - I become suspicious.
"Where have I seen this before?" I think. "Was it that episode of Kojak where he posed as a chubby bald lefty for a Canadian baseball team?" I queried. "No, that's not it, you idiot!" I then cruelly rejoindered, like a douche. But wait..."Of course!! They were missing fastballs middle inside last week too, as if they would be fined if they pulled a pitch down the left field line! especially that chubby bald righty, Youjak!"
Of course, I am being somewhat facetious, however, the fact remains - prior to the seventh inning, two balls were hit to left: a double by Crisp and a single by WMPK. Chacin operates in the low-90s at best, so I struggle to understand the desire to go the other way. All in all, the only logical conclusion I can come up with is that the guys are hazing Dice-K by losing him a couple of games they could have one. In the end, I think this will make a better guy, and will help him network for a sales job after baseball. So I guess I'm behind it, in a condescending sort of way.
Shhhh...here comes Hansack..
Sure, he looked great in Spring Training. Easy, repeatable delivery. Throws three pitches for strikes, apparently at will. No emotion to speak of. In short, he is the Anti-Tavarez. But what do a few spring training outings mean?
Well, at this point, Devern Hansack has pitched 10.2 innings in AAA. His strike to ball ratio is at nearly 70%. He has struck out 2o batters. He has allowed only one earned run. He is, in short, at this point ridiculous. Now, this is the smallest of sample sizes, possibly ever. But if like me you really like what the former Nicaraguan lobsterman looks like on the mound, buy your bandwagon seats now.
Sunday, April 08, 2007
2007 Red Sox Pitching Staff
A tardy closing to my look at the 25-man roster for 2007. It was helpful to have a few games I could watch to see the pitchers in game situations.
Starters:
Curt Schilling: 2007 ZiPS Projection 15-7 W-L | 3.98 ERA
This is a pretty standard projection for Schill, matching his three-year (2004-2006) averages very closely. At this point I think we all know what we can expect from a healthy Curt Schilling. The wrinkles this year are his advancing age (again), his attempt to work in a new change-up, and of course any stress that might result from the 2008 contract situation.
Curt's first start was an inmitigated disaster. He couldn't locate the fastball, which is absolutely necessary, and the experimental change was tattooed. The rumor based on the announcers was that he was tipping the change, and certainly that makes some sense. He looked much better tonight, obviously, and in spite of the dinger by Red Sox killer Frank Catalanotto (Catalanotto must have his hookers wear Sox gear before coming to bed, I swear to you, his OPS against us is 1.2 and change). the change over the course of the game looked useful. Still, it's not vintage.
The short story is this - Curt needs to win 15 for this team to have a chance. Even Joe Morgan recognizes this, which means it's a very simple thing.
Josh Beckett: 2007 ZiPS Projection 14-10 W-L | 4.55 ERA
Well, it probably goes without saying that if we get two years like this from Beckett, he is not worth Ramirez and Sanchez. I think we're going to see better than this from Beckett this year. He has had a year to adjust, should be a little more mature, and I think new pitching coach Farrell will be a benefit to him.
Beckett looked very good in his first start, keeping his mid-90s fastball down in the zone and complementing it with a hook that was just nasty at times. Beckett doesn't need to be as much of a "pitcher" as Schilling is, but he has to locate the fastball. That will be the key for him this year. That, and Archie comics.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 2007 ZiPS Projection 15-8 W-L | 3.44 ERA
At this point it's not surprising that Dice-K projects to have the best numbers on the team. He is the real deal. Sit back and enjoy the maestro.
Timmeh:2007 ZiPS Projection 11-12 W-L | 5.16 ERA
Are these crappy numbers? Hells yeah. Might this be just what Timmeh puts together this year? Yup. A healthy Wake should go about .500, mid-to-high 4s ERA. Knuckleballers shouldn't regress as other pitchers do as they age, and I suspect that regression is built into this projection, so I'm expecting a bit better. That being said, we are all familiar with Timmeh's Jekyll and Hyde act. It's a crapshoot.
Essentially you get a decent #4 at a good price with Timmeh, but of course you also get Doug Mirabelli, who is just awful in every way. I love Wake, and he is the consummate Boston guy, but if Snyder comes around, Lester comes back, and Hansack looks like he looks, it might be getting a little cramped for a pitcher who makes you waste a roster spot for his chubby binky.
Julian Tavarez: 2007 ZiPs...ahh, I'm not even gonna bother
Tavarez has no business being our #5 while Snyder and Hansack are available. He doesn't strike guys out, and just cannot consistently throw strikes. Unless the idea was to let him carry over his lucky streak from last year in order to trade him, I am insulted that he's in this position. Hansack throws three pitches for strikes regularly, has a smooth repeatable delivery, and looks pretty much unflappable. We should be watching him pitch every fifth day. Also, the guy was catching lobsters in Nicaragua like two years ago. "Yeah, hi, Disney?..."
(Note: I don't want people to think I'm anti-Tavarez. Sure, last year I referred to him as the Anti-Christ for several months, and repeatedly compare him to Popeye's dog-like creature The Jeep, but I can never turn my back on the man who punched a guy out at home plate just for scoring on him. Genius.)
Bullpen:
Let's work back from the top...
Jon Papelbon: 2007 Shea Projection 30 S | 2.10 ERA
It would be truly remarkable for Paps to duplicate his rookie season, but I think he clearly gives us what we need in the back of the bullpen - a reliable, intimidating closer. I think we probably see him in fewer games, and I think the league adjusts to him, and that (plus beer) is what is generating the line above.
Joel Pineiro: 2007 Shea Projections 4 S | 3.97 ERA
I am pulling this out of my ass. Basically, I think Pineiro sees a few low-lev save opportunities to see if he can bump up his trade value, or provide a safety option if Paps' shoulder twinges. He is a complete mystery right now. he has had a couple good outings where his stuff looked pretty good, and then of course sucked so badly tonight that the temperature dropped 5 degrees in the stadium while he was on the mound. Jury still out, but... I'm leaning towards shitbum. So I guess, really, he's not so much a complete mystery.
Mike Timlin (currently rehabbing): 2007 ZiPS Projection 6-4 W-L | 4.55 ERA
Like many of you, I am disturbed by the image of Timlin standing on the mound, staring into Varitek's crotch to get the call, unaware that there is a bony seven-foot figure in a dark cowl holding a giant scythe standing directly behind him. At some point a guy who makes his living in the upper half of the strike zone will run out of time, and you have to wonder if age 41 might be Mike's last call. This would really suck for us, because one thing is certain - Tito will be the last to know.
Brendan Donnelly: 2007 ZiPS Projection 4-4 W-L | 4.34 ERA
Donnelly is a classic case of getting a guy on the downslope and hoping he plateaus for a year or two while he's still pretty good (yes, this happens enough for there to be classic cases). And Donnelly was pretty good last year, despite having most of his peripherals drop. When you look at his delivery, it's difficult to understand why he hasn't exploded at some point, but he's been pretty healthy for the last few years. If Tito isn't a complete imbecile, Donnelly gets most of the 8th inning opportunities. Righties hit him pretty good (.861 OPS) last year, so that will be something to watch, but you'd rather see him out there than Timlin at this point.
J.C Romero: 2007 ZiPS Projection 4-3 W-L | 4.43 ERA
Romero is a reclamation project. Really, I guess he's a LOOGY, especially if you look at his 2006 splits (RHH went for a .1029 OPS against last year, so basically every righty was an all-star), although they were more severe than his historicals. Still, he is the absolute last guy you want pitching to a right-handed power hitter named Sammy Sosa. He was very good in 2004 and the Sox are hoping he figures out how to replicate that performance. With Lopez pitching as well as he has been, Romero is going to have to show improvement (caviat is that Lopez has a minor-league option left, but the Sox are still without a defensive OF which probably won't last).
Javier Lopez: 2007 ZiPS Projection 2-2 W-L | 4.82 ERA
Lopez was acquired as a LOOGY but has shown the ability to pitch to both sides of the plate with his underarm delivery. He doesn't get hit hard, but has command issues. If he can figure out how to throw strikes consistently he's a valuable bullpen piece with his pitch movement. Bottom line; he's another guy who is on the tightrope to stick. I tend to think unless Romero really collapses, Lopez will see one more stop in AAA.
Kyle Snyder: 2007 ZiPS Projection 7-6 W-L | 4.86 ERA
I believe this projection is for Snyder as a spot starter. Snyder is a compelling guy, a former first-rounder who has struggled with health issues for his career. As we saw in flashes last year, he can pitch, with a decent fastball and exceptional curve. He appears to struggle mentally at times, which working with Farrell and Tek can only help. I like Snyder but as the swing-man in the bullpen, if we see him coming in it means the game has gone sideways, in most cases. I find it an interesting side story to the season, watching his progression (or not).
Note: by all accounts new pitching coach John Farrell is doing a great job. I think we will look back at that decision with gratitude a few years from now. His methodologies are used throughout the organization, so when prospects get to the big league club they are already in synch. I really like the way he has gone about his business.
Starters:
Curt Schilling: 2007 ZiPS Projection 15-7 W-L | 3.98 ERA
This is a pretty standard projection for Schill, matching his three-year (2004-2006) averages very closely. At this point I think we all know what we can expect from a healthy Curt Schilling. The wrinkles this year are his advancing age (again), his attempt to work in a new change-up, and of course any stress that might result from the 2008 contract situation.
Curt's first start was an inmitigated disaster. He couldn't locate the fastball, which is absolutely necessary, and the experimental change was tattooed. The rumor based on the announcers was that he was tipping the change, and certainly that makes some sense. He looked much better tonight, obviously, and in spite of the dinger by Red Sox killer Frank Catalanotto (Catalanotto must have his hookers wear Sox gear before coming to bed, I swear to you, his OPS against us is 1.2 and change). the change over the course of the game looked useful. Still, it's not vintage.
The short story is this - Curt needs to win 15 for this team to have a chance. Even Joe Morgan recognizes this, which means it's a very simple thing.
Josh Beckett: 2007 ZiPS Projection 14-10 W-L | 4.55 ERA
Well, it probably goes without saying that if we get two years like this from Beckett, he is not worth Ramirez and Sanchez. I think we're going to see better than this from Beckett this year. He has had a year to adjust, should be a little more mature, and I think new pitching coach Farrell will be a benefit to him.
Beckett looked very good in his first start, keeping his mid-90s fastball down in the zone and complementing it with a hook that was just nasty at times. Beckett doesn't need to be as much of a "pitcher" as Schilling is, but he has to locate the fastball. That will be the key for him this year. That, and Archie comics.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 2007 ZiPS Projection 15-8 W-L | 3.44 ERA
At this point it's not surprising that Dice-K projects to have the best numbers on the team. He is the real deal. Sit back and enjoy the maestro.
Timmeh:2007 ZiPS Projection 11-12 W-L | 5.16 ERA
Are these crappy numbers? Hells yeah. Might this be just what Timmeh puts together this year? Yup. A healthy Wake should go about .500, mid-to-high 4s ERA. Knuckleballers shouldn't regress as other pitchers do as they age, and I suspect that regression is built into this projection, so I'm expecting a bit better. That being said, we are all familiar with Timmeh's Jekyll and Hyde act. It's a crapshoot.
Essentially you get a decent #4 at a good price with Timmeh, but of course you also get Doug Mirabelli, who is just awful in every way. I love Wake, and he is the consummate Boston guy, but if Snyder comes around, Lester comes back, and Hansack looks like he looks, it might be getting a little cramped for a pitcher who makes you waste a roster spot for his chubby binky.
Julian Tavarez: 2007 ZiPs...ahh, I'm not even gonna bother
Tavarez has no business being our #5 while Snyder and Hansack are available. He doesn't strike guys out, and just cannot consistently throw strikes. Unless the idea was to let him carry over his lucky streak from last year in order to trade him, I am insulted that he's in this position. Hansack throws three pitches for strikes regularly, has a smooth repeatable delivery, and looks pretty much unflappable. We should be watching him pitch every fifth day. Also, the guy was catching lobsters in Nicaragua like two years ago. "Yeah, hi, Disney?..."
(Note: I don't want people to think I'm anti-Tavarez. Sure, last year I referred to him as the Anti-Christ for several months, and repeatedly compare him to Popeye's dog-like creature The Jeep, but I can never turn my back on the man who punched a guy out at home plate just for scoring on him. Genius.)
Bullpen:
Let's work back from the top...
Jon Papelbon: 2007 Shea Projection 30 S | 2.10 ERA
It would be truly remarkable for Paps to duplicate his rookie season, but I think he clearly gives us what we need in the back of the bullpen - a reliable, intimidating closer. I think we probably see him in fewer games, and I think the league adjusts to him, and that (plus beer) is what is generating the line above.
Joel Pineiro: 2007 Shea Projections 4 S | 3.97 ERA
I am pulling this out of my ass. Basically, I think Pineiro sees a few low-lev save opportunities to see if he can bump up his trade value, or provide a safety option if Paps' shoulder twinges. He is a complete mystery right now. he has had a couple good outings where his stuff looked pretty good, and then of course sucked so badly tonight that the temperature dropped 5 degrees in the stadium while he was on the mound. Jury still out, but... I'm leaning towards shitbum. So I guess, really, he's not so much a complete mystery.
Mike Timlin (currently rehabbing): 2007 ZiPS Projection 6-4 W-L | 4.55 ERA
Like many of you, I am disturbed by the image of Timlin standing on the mound, staring into Varitek's crotch to get the call, unaware that there is a bony seven-foot figure in a dark cowl holding a giant scythe standing directly behind him. At some point a guy who makes his living in the upper half of the strike zone will run out of time, and you have to wonder if age 41 might be Mike's last call. This would really suck for us, because one thing is certain - Tito will be the last to know.
Brendan Donnelly: 2007 ZiPS Projection 4-4 W-L | 4.34 ERA
Donnelly is a classic case of getting a guy on the downslope and hoping he plateaus for a year or two while he's still pretty good (yes, this happens enough for there to be classic cases). And Donnelly was pretty good last year, despite having most of his peripherals drop. When you look at his delivery, it's difficult to understand why he hasn't exploded at some point, but he's been pretty healthy for the last few years. If Tito isn't a complete imbecile, Donnelly gets most of the 8th inning opportunities. Righties hit him pretty good (.861 OPS) last year, so that will be something to watch, but you'd rather see him out there than Timlin at this point.
J.C Romero: 2007 ZiPS Projection 4-3 W-L | 4.43 ERA
Romero is a reclamation project. Really, I guess he's a LOOGY, especially if you look at his 2006 splits (RHH went for a .1029 OPS against last year, so basically every righty was an all-star), although they were more severe than his historicals. Still, he is the absolute last guy you want pitching to a right-handed power hitter named Sammy Sosa. He was very good in 2004 and the Sox are hoping he figures out how to replicate that performance. With Lopez pitching as well as he has been, Romero is going to have to show improvement (caviat is that Lopez has a minor-league option left, but the Sox are still without a defensive OF which probably won't last).
Javier Lopez: 2007 ZiPS Projection 2-2 W-L | 4.82 ERA
Lopez was acquired as a LOOGY but has shown the ability to pitch to both sides of the plate with his underarm delivery. He doesn't get hit hard, but has command issues. If he can figure out how to throw strikes consistently he's a valuable bullpen piece with his pitch movement. Bottom line; he's another guy who is on the tightrope to stick. I tend to think unless Romero really collapses, Lopez will see one more stop in AAA.
Kyle Snyder: 2007 ZiPS Projection 7-6 W-L | 4.86 ERA
I believe this projection is for Snyder as a spot starter. Snyder is a compelling guy, a former first-rounder who has struggled with health issues for his career. As we saw in flashes last year, he can pitch, with a decent fastball and exceptional curve. He appears to struggle mentally at times, which working with Farrell and Tek can only help. I like Snyder but as the swing-man in the bullpen, if we see him coming in it means the game has gone sideways, in most cases. I find it an interesting side story to the season, watching his progression (or not).
Note: by all accounts new pitching coach John Farrell is doing a great job. I think we will look back at that decision with gratitude a few years from now. His methodologies are used throughout the organization, so when prospects get to the big league club they are already in synch. I really like the way he has gone about his business.
Thursday, March 29, 2007
2007 Red Sox Outfield
So we now know that the Sox have decided to go with another arm instead of a bench OF who can actually field a position. I think this is a temporary situation, and I think Alex Ochoa agrees with me. I expect the Sox will look to move either (or both) Romero or Pineiro at some point in the coming months, although to be honest I would expect Lopez to draw the most interest based on his contract and effectiveness. If Pineiro pitches lights-out in April, then, well, his contract looks pretty good too, and he might move. Ironically, if Putz's arm is gone, Seattle would be a team who needs a closer. Reitsma is not that guy, IMO.
So, what are we looking at?
J.D. Drew: 2007 ZiPS Projection BA .266 | OBP .383 | SLG .452
Here's where projections can be insane. Varitek projects to hit as well as Drew, and I think we all know that is about as likely as Varitek changing his haircut/goatee combo. I liked the Drew signing when we made it, and I really like it now. It goes without saying that he could blow his testicles out in a freak ferris wheel accident and be gone all season, but he is a true talent that is exactly what this ballclub needed. I personally think his line will look more like .290 | .390 | .510.
Coco Crisp: 2007 ZiPS Projection BA .299 | OBP .352 | SLG .456
So, naturally, when you look at Crisp's projection, you think "huh?" but this was the guy they signed (at a pretty reasonable rate I might add). I mean, we all loved the idea of Andy Marte hitting 84 dingers a year, but regardless of your feelings about the trade, it was never in question that Crisp was a young athletic kid who was trending the right way (also, Marte can't hit off-speed stuff yet, which can be a problem). I think his batting eye needs to improve for him to reach this level, but there is no reason a healthy Crisp doesn't have the above line by the end of 2007. Of course, the phrase "healthy Crisp" seems oxymoronic at this point doesn't it?
Still, I know we will all be rooting for Coco, if only to force piece of shit non-journalist Dan Shaughnessy to eat crow after his latest hatchet job, which was focused on Coco. What is the common thread of the Shaughnessy hatchet job? The player won't talk to him. What a ginger clam.
Manny Ramirez: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .299 | OBP .408 | SLG .600
Well, there are few players as easy to project as Manny. This is Manny with a more or less normalized BABIP, I suspect. The guy just hits. Defensively, the debate rages on - is Manny the worst fielder of all time, worth negative 20-plus runs over the course of a season? Is the Fenway Park left-field so twisted that all defensive metrics are crap with regard to playing it? Does it matter at all, as long as Manny shags extra flies during warmup and takes the occasional mid-game leak in the scoreboard? No.
Manny is Manny, and his flailing around the outfield allows Papi's knees to hold up as the DH, and this pretty much makes the whole thing work. Is he kind of nut-job? Sure, but he is a pretty lovable kook, and when his career is done, and CHB is putting the axe to someone ese, and some real journalist takes us back over Manny's career here, we will miss that crinkly-haired genius. If WMP (now known as WMPK) can't put it together, or we don't somehow acquire a Cabrera, an A-Rod, or a Pedro Alvarez in the draft, a Manny departure will be a crippler.
Wily Mo Pena: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .276 | OBP .331 | SLG .483
Well, the great debate rages on. I am in the camp that the Arroyo for Pena trade was a fair risk-reward deal. We have no power in the system right now, none, that has played a full year of ball (well, maybe Mike James). Arroyo is a fine NL pitcher, and can eat innings, but was a pretty damn craptacular AL East pitcher. Based on what the FO knew then, I think it made sense.
Whatever, it's done. As a quick glance at the names above will tell you, we have a very injury-prone outfield, still, so Wily Mo should get his cuts in. I think we're going to see a drop in his BA, simply because his .411 BABIP (41% of the balls he made contact with were hits!) is just unsustainable for his level of ability. That's Ruthian territory. If Wily Mo gets his 400 ABs, and makes some improvements - and that is the thing I like about the Super Genius, he truly seems to be able to make adjustments - we'll consider 2007 a success.
Good article on projecting Wily Mo here at Baseball Prospectus. It's never good to be compared to Pete Incaviglia, especially now, but still; interesting reading.
5th Outfielder TBD:
One wants to believe Murphy and Moss are in their plans for the near future, but I think Ochoa takes the spot until the late summer. Those two kids are guys that can still benefit from some AAA seasoning. They know there is no immediate spot for them on this roster, and that tearing it up in Pawtucket is their best chance to get a ticket to somewhere they can start (like Florida or Colorado). Ochoa is a good defensive outfielder with a cannon for an arm, and given the Ziegfeld-ian talents we have out there in WMP(K) and Manny, that will be much appreciated in some close games.
So, what are we looking at?
J.D. Drew: 2007 ZiPS Projection BA .266 | OBP .383 | SLG .452
Here's where projections can be insane. Varitek projects to hit as well as Drew, and I think we all know that is about as likely as Varitek changing his haircut/goatee combo. I liked the Drew signing when we made it, and I really like it now. It goes without saying that he could blow his testicles out in a freak ferris wheel accident and be gone all season, but he is a true talent that is exactly what this ballclub needed. I personally think his line will look more like .290 | .390 | .510.
Coco Crisp: 2007 ZiPS Projection BA .299 | OBP .352 | SLG .456
So, naturally, when you look at Crisp's projection, you think "huh?" but this was the guy they signed (at a pretty reasonable rate I might add). I mean, we all loved the idea of Andy Marte hitting 84 dingers a year, but regardless of your feelings about the trade, it was never in question that Crisp was a young athletic kid who was trending the right way (also, Marte can't hit off-speed stuff yet, which can be a problem). I think his batting eye needs to improve for him to reach this level, but there is no reason a healthy Crisp doesn't have the above line by the end of 2007. Of course, the phrase "healthy Crisp" seems oxymoronic at this point doesn't it?
Still, I know we will all be rooting for Coco, if only to force piece of shit non-journalist Dan Shaughnessy to eat crow after his latest hatchet job, which was focused on Coco. What is the common thread of the Shaughnessy hatchet job? The player won't talk to him. What a ginger clam.
Manny Ramirez: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .299 | OBP .408 | SLG .600
Well, there are few players as easy to project as Manny. This is Manny with a more or less normalized BABIP, I suspect. The guy just hits. Defensively, the debate rages on - is Manny the worst fielder of all time, worth negative 20-plus runs over the course of a season? Is the Fenway Park left-field so twisted that all defensive metrics are crap with regard to playing it? Does it matter at all, as long as Manny shags extra flies during warmup and takes the occasional mid-game leak in the scoreboard? No.
Manny is Manny, and his flailing around the outfield allows Papi's knees to hold up as the DH, and this pretty much makes the whole thing work. Is he kind of nut-job? Sure, but he is a pretty lovable kook, and when his career is done, and CHB is putting the axe to someone ese, and some real journalist takes us back over Manny's career here, we will miss that crinkly-haired genius. If WMP (now known as WMPK) can't put it together, or we don't somehow acquire a Cabrera, an A-Rod, or a Pedro Alvarez in the draft, a Manny departure will be a crippler.
Wily Mo Pena: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .276 | OBP .331 | SLG .483
Well, the great debate rages on. I am in the camp that the Arroyo for Pena trade was a fair risk-reward deal. We have no power in the system right now, none, that has played a full year of ball (well, maybe Mike James). Arroyo is a fine NL pitcher, and can eat innings, but was a pretty damn craptacular AL East pitcher. Based on what the FO knew then, I think it made sense.
Whatever, it's done. As a quick glance at the names above will tell you, we have a very injury-prone outfield, still, so Wily Mo should get his cuts in. I think we're going to see a drop in his BA, simply because his .411 BABIP (41% of the balls he made contact with were hits!) is just unsustainable for his level of ability. That's Ruthian territory. If Wily Mo gets his 400 ABs, and makes some improvements - and that is the thing I like about the Super Genius, he truly seems to be able to make adjustments - we'll consider 2007 a success.
Good article on projecting Wily Mo here at Baseball Prospectus. It's never good to be compared to Pete Incaviglia, especially now, but still; interesting reading.
5th Outfielder TBD:
One wants to believe Murphy and Moss are in their plans for the near future, but I think Ochoa takes the spot until the late summer. Those two kids are guys that can still benefit from some AAA seasoning. They know there is no immediate spot for them on this roster, and that tearing it up in Pawtucket is their best chance to get a ticket to somewhere they can start (like Florida or Colorado). Ochoa is a good defensive outfielder with a cannon for an arm, and given the Ziegfeld-ian talents we have out there in WMP(K) and Manny, that will be much appreciated in some close games.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
2007 Red Sox Infield
I'll start with these guys since I'm predicting the least amount of flux in the infield throughout spring training, and I don't want to have to keep going back and forth with updates based on who's looking like the closer, or the 4th outfielder, or the Fat Elvis Presley, etc.
Catcher
Arguably the most important defensive position on the field when one takes game-calling into the picture.
Varitek: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .266 | OBP .357 | SLG .456
The Captain's offensive productivity dropped off last year, possibly as a result of injury, but he has come back this year stating he feels better than he has in years. Still, he's 35 years old playing a position that often correlates with steep performance declines for players older than 30. Varitek is not a normal athlete though, in terms of training and preparation. Until proven otherwise there is no reason to believe he cannot have a bounce-back year offensively.
Defensively, he remains the benchmark for game preparation and pitch-calling in the major leagues. With Matsuzaka coming on board for his first year in MLB, there can be no other catcher you would rather have behind the plate.
Good Herald article/puff piece on Varitek here. As one would expect he doesn't use the injuries last year as an excuse for the offensive struggles, and as usual he sounds like the kind of guy you just have absolute faith in. And, as usual, he doesn't seem like the guy you'd want with you in Vegas at 2am, unless of course you had attracted the unwanted attention of the security crew.
My personal prediction is that 'Tek ends up around where ZiPS has him. The swing is a little long, and the high inside heat will burn him a little more, but he will get on base, and when it's all said and done he is the Captain, and as long as he plays this team has a chance.
Doug Mirabelli: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .214 | OBP .304 | SLG .377
Doug Mirabelli is the long-snapper of MLB. He does exactly one thing, catch the knuckleball, and apparently he does it well enough that he makes 3/4 of a million dollars to do only that while causing people to suffer cerebral edema just watching him hit. I personally find it hard to believe that catching the knuckler is so difficult that no other catcher can learn to do it (since Varitek did it just fine before Dougie came along), but evidently there is some "comfort" level that helps Timmeh here, so we get another year of Mr. Chubs. If we only get Dougie once every 5 or 6 days it's a manageable hit, but anything beyond that is just brutal.
George Kottaras: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .241 | OBP .331 | SLG .374
Yes, the kid who's never been higher than AA is projected to hit better than Mirabelli. Shocking? No. My mom is projected to hit better than Dougie and she hasn't stepped into the batter's box since I bruised her ribs with an errant heater in 6th grade.
Kottaras is the heir-apparent to Varitek unless some odd things happen with Wagner, Weeden, Egan or Otness. That said, he does not project to approach Varitek's abilities defensively, at least at this point. The Sox obviously hope 'Tek can work with him to instill some of those traits, hence his invite to S.T. Kottaras is a cerebral hitter, though, and may be able to transform himself defensively through hard work and tutelage. It's something to watch this year. He'll play every day in Pawtucket. The interesting thing to note about Kottaras is that he does have some experience catching the knuckler (caught Steve Sparks for a bit in the minors) so if Dougie has an "incident" at the Pizzeria Regina, he might be able to caddy for Wake.
When all is said and done, we got Kottaras for a month of Fatty McFatfat. It's hard not to like that deal.
First Base
Typically an offensive position, the Sox do not have a typical solution in place.
Youks: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .276 | OBP .383 | SLG .428
Yes, Youks is not your prototpyical masher at first. His IsoP of .149 ranks 21st out of all MLB first basemen. But his Runs Created, which to some extent might be considered the "bottom line", is 12th in all MLB. Given what we're paying him, that is not a bad return. Nevertheless, the Sox are unusual for a big market club in that the two corner IF positions do not contribute a ton of slugging to the lineup. Ideally, we'd have Youks at 3rd and a Teixeira (or Papi, if his knees weren't the Caine Mutiny) at first. As discussed, however, it may be easier to upgrade at third.
Looking deeper on the bright side, Youks is a very mediocre defender according to the available metrics. So there's that. I'm kidding, of course, but I think it's important to recognize that while Youks is a very likeable, hard-working guy who maximized his talent, he is not a long-term solution at first for this club, in all likelihood. Still, I expect he puts up slightly improved numbers from last years', and is a solid all-around contributor to the 2007 effort.
Eric Hinske: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .256 | OBP .332 | SLG .406
Looking at the horrific mediocrity of these numbers, it is hard to understand why we would be paying Hinske $2.8M next year. The reason is that he hits right-handed pitching (OPS of .896 vs RHP last year), will take a lot of pitches, and can play 1B, 3B and OF (none particularly well, although the stats point to OF as his strongest). He is the uber-platoon player. Also, as previously mentioned in this space, he has a giant Rasputin head, and in tough times that can be used to instill fear into your opponent, or small children, as the situation dictates.
Second Base:
The red-headed stepchild of the infield. As Mark Loretta proved last year, you can get by with a gargoyle or lawn-gnome at second if they can turn the DP.
Dustin Pedroia 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .274 | OBP .347 | SLG .394
After being baptized by a 2005 that was characterized by injury and bad luck at the plate (his oft-harped upon - by me - .188 BABIP after his call-up), Pedroia dedicated himself to training in the offseason and revamped his body in preparation for his first year starting in the bigs. Frankly put, there are vastly differing opinions on what to expect out of Pedroia out there, but personally I think his glove is just fine for 2B, and I think he'll hit well. He's simply never not hit. Even when he struggled last year after the call-up he had the lowest K% on the entire team. The only real impact was that he became less selective and made poor contact on pitches he should have taken. I think he'll correct that this year, and hit a lot of line drives. This kid should be solid, and fun to root for.
Alex Cora 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .250 | OBP .333 | SLG .344
The most overpaid player on the team in terms of WARP-1 valuation is also the person most likely to become a solid coach in the organization (or worse, someone else's). This chat wrap excerpt from Gammons pretty much says it all:
Cora is below average at two positions, but does the little things. He is a bench player and a good guy to have in the clubhouse. Not a problem.
Shortstop
The debate over defense vs. offense will rage on every time Lugo bobbles a ball, but no matter what side of the fence you're on SS is a lynchpin position.
Julio Lugo: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .292 | OBP .355 | SLG .407
Lugo is gonna be the guy to watch this year. His ZiPS projections are nice, nothing to write home about, but Eric Van over at SOSH (thread here) has put a lot more time into Lugo's projections and came up with .319 / .382 / .482 as his adjusted projection. That would obviously be a pleasant surprise to most of us, but there can be no question that Lugo is a gifted athlete who will fare better in Fenway (he always has) than at the Trop. If he stays healthy his production could well be the difference-maker for the team this season.
Lugo adds another dimension to the offense. He is a true lead-off hitter, having put up much better numbers in that role (career he's .291 / .352 / .434 leading off an inning and .271 / .335 / .391 otherwise), and even if he doesn't steal has the speed to make an impact on the basepaths. He also allows Crisp to move lower in the order, which may benefit the newly-fro'd one by allowing him to see more fastballs, and perhaps run more.
Cora is supposedly the back-up at SS but I can hardly credit that plan for any real length of time. I think it more likely Pedroia moves over and we deal for a Graffanino-type journeyman or may-have-missed prospect. At last glance our own Jed Lowrie was nowhere near ready for prime-time.
Third Base
The hot corner is another offensively minded position where the Sox are a little lacking with Lowell. However, Lowell's glove cannot be criticized.
Mike Lowell: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .277 | OBP .342 | SLG .465
Lowell is kind of a cottage speculation industry. Much about him is known: he's a great teammate, plays gold glove defense, is a hot 1st half-player, and sports an inexplicable John Waters moustache as part of his van dyke. However, ever since his mid-boggingly awful 2005, the vultures have been circling. He fell off a cliff in the second half of last year, as per usual, dropping 136 points in OPS after the All-Star break. Everyone is wondering - when will the slump become the norm (for reference see Millar, Kevin), or when will he figure out how to hit for a full season? Given his age, more of us are wondering the former.
Nevertheless, Lowell will be the third baseman until further notice, and frankly if he is not traded by the end of S.T. he probably won't be. You want him for the first part of the year, not the second. It's fun to conjecture that he might be better off with more days of rest earlier in the year, but what manager wants to sit a guy who's tearing it up? Ride the hot hand - that's the rule of thumb. Nevertheless, Hinske may see some action against LHPs to spell Youks and/or Lowell, and once again we will watch Mikey play with our fingers crossed, and play the conjecture game.
As an aside, there is no one in the minors who projects to be even close to matching Lowell's production. Top 3B prospect Chad Spann struck out in nearly 25% of his ABs in AA last year and was lackluster against AFL talent. Basically, root for Mikey.
Next....the outfield.
Catcher
Arguably the most important defensive position on the field when one takes game-calling into the picture.
Varitek: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .266 | OBP .357 | SLG .456
The Captain's offensive productivity dropped off last year, possibly as a result of injury, but he has come back this year stating he feels better than he has in years. Still, he's 35 years old playing a position that often correlates with steep performance declines for players older than 30. Varitek is not a normal athlete though, in terms of training and preparation. Until proven otherwise there is no reason to believe he cannot have a bounce-back year offensively.
Defensively, he remains the benchmark for game preparation and pitch-calling in the major leagues. With Matsuzaka coming on board for his first year in MLB, there can be no other catcher you would rather have behind the plate.
Good Herald article/puff piece on Varitek here. As one would expect he doesn't use the injuries last year as an excuse for the offensive struggles, and as usual he sounds like the kind of guy you just have absolute faith in. And, as usual, he doesn't seem like the guy you'd want with you in Vegas at 2am, unless of course you had attracted the unwanted attention of the security crew.
My personal prediction is that 'Tek ends up around where ZiPS has him. The swing is a little long, and the high inside heat will burn him a little more, but he will get on base, and when it's all said and done he is the Captain, and as long as he plays this team has a chance.
Doug Mirabelli: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .214 | OBP .304 | SLG .377
Doug Mirabelli is the long-snapper of MLB. He does exactly one thing, catch the knuckleball, and apparently he does it well enough that he makes 3/4 of a million dollars to do only that while causing people to suffer cerebral edema just watching him hit. I personally find it hard to believe that catching the knuckler is so difficult that no other catcher can learn to do it (since Varitek did it just fine before Dougie came along), but evidently there is some "comfort" level that helps Timmeh here, so we get another year of Mr. Chubs. If we only get Dougie once every 5 or 6 days it's a manageable hit, but anything beyond that is just brutal.
George Kottaras: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .241 | OBP .331 | SLG .374
Yes, the kid who's never been higher than AA is projected to hit better than Mirabelli. Shocking? No. My mom is projected to hit better than Dougie and she hasn't stepped into the batter's box since I bruised her ribs with an errant heater in 6th grade.
Kottaras is the heir-apparent to Varitek unless some odd things happen with Wagner, Weeden, Egan or Otness. That said, he does not project to approach Varitek's abilities defensively, at least at this point. The Sox obviously hope 'Tek can work with him to instill some of those traits, hence his invite to S.T. Kottaras is a cerebral hitter, though, and may be able to transform himself defensively through hard work and tutelage. It's something to watch this year. He'll play every day in Pawtucket. The interesting thing to note about Kottaras is that he does have some experience catching the knuckler (caught Steve Sparks for a bit in the minors) so if Dougie has an "incident" at the Pizzeria Regina, he might be able to caddy for Wake.
When all is said and done, we got Kottaras for a month of Fatty McFatfat. It's hard not to like that deal.
First Base
Typically an offensive position, the Sox do not have a typical solution in place.
Youks: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .276 | OBP .383 | SLG .428
Yes, Youks is not your prototpyical masher at first. His IsoP of .149 ranks 21st out of all MLB first basemen. But his Runs Created, which to some extent might be considered the "bottom line", is 12th in all MLB. Given what we're paying him, that is not a bad return. Nevertheless, the Sox are unusual for a big market club in that the two corner IF positions do not contribute a ton of slugging to the lineup. Ideally, we'd have Youks at 3rd and a Teixeira (or Papi, if his knees weren't the Caine Mutiny) at first. As discussed, however, it may be easier to upgrade at third.
Looking deeper on the bright side, Youks is a very mediocre defender according to the available metrics. So there's that. I'm kidding, of course, but I think it's important to recognize that while Youks is a very likeable, hard-working guy who maximized his talent, he is not a long-term solution at first for this club, in all likelihood. Still, I expect he puts up slightly improved numbers from last years', and is a solid all-around contributor to the 2007 effort.
Eric Hinske: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .256 | OBP .332 | SLG .406
Looking at the horrific mediocrity of these numbers, it is hard to understand why we would be paying Hinske $2.8M next year. The reason is that he hits right-handed pitching (OPS of .896 vs RHP last year), will take a lot of pitches, and can play 1B, 3B and OF (none particularly well, although the stats point to OF as his strongest). He is the uber-platoon player. Also, as previously mentioned in this space, he has a giant Rasputin head, and in tough times that can be used to instill fear into your opponent, or small children, as the situation dictates.
Second Base:
The red-headed stepchild of the infield. As Mark Loretta proved last year, you can get by with a gargoyle or lawn-gnome at second if they can turn the DP.
Dustin Pedroia 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .274 | OBP .347 | SLG .394
After being baptized by a 2005 that was characterized by injury and bad luck at the plate (his oft-harped upon - by me - .188 BABIP after his call-up), Pedroia dedicated himself to training in the offseason and revamped his body in preparation for his first year starting in the bigs. Frankly put, there are vastly differing opinions on what to expect out of Pedroia out there, but personally I think his glove is just fine for 2B, and I think he'll hit well. He's simply never not hit. Even when he struggled last year after the call-up he had the lowest K% on the entire team. The only real impact was that he became less selective and made poor contact on pitches he should have taken. I think he'll correct that this year, and hit a lot of line drives. This kid should be solid, and fun to root for.
Alex Cora 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .250 | OBP .333 | SLG .344
The most overpaid player on the team in terms of WARP-1 valuation is also the person most likely to become a solid coach in the organization (or worse, someone else's). This chat wrap excerpt from Gammons pretty much says it all:
| Chris_2: | This Alex Cora for Kaz Matsui rumor sounds bogus to me. Is there any truth and/or logic to this rumor? |
| PeterGammons: | The Mets would love to do it but the Red Sox love Alex Cora, the manager agrees with Paul Lo Duca that he is the smartest player in the game. Matsui is a huge question mark. The Mets throw everything out there, so I'm sure they tried. |
Cora is below average at two positions, but does the little things. He is a bench player and a good guy to have in the clubhouse. Not a problem.
Shortstop
The debate over defense vs. offense will rage on every time Lugo bobbles a ball, but no matter what side of the fence you're on SS is a lynchpin position.
Julio Lugo: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .292 | OBP .355 | SLG .407
Lugo is gonna be the guy to watch this year. His ZiPS projections are nice, nothing to write home about, but Eric Van over at SOSH (thread here) has put a lot more time into Lugo's projections and came up with .319 / .382 / .482 as his adjusted projection. That would obviously be a pleasant surprise to most of us, but there can be no question that Lugo is a gifted athlete who will fare better in Fenway (he always has) than at the Trop. If he stays healthy his production could well be the difference-maker for the team this season.
Lugo adds another dimension to the offense. He is a true lead-off hitter, having put up much better numbers in that role (career he's .291 / .352 / .434 leading off an inning and .271 / .335 / .391 otherwise), and even if he doesn't steal has the speed to make an impact on the basepaths. He also allows Crisp to move lower in the order, which may benefit the newly-fro'd one by allowing him to see more fastballs, and perhaps run more.
Cora is supposedly the back-up at SS but I can hardly credit that plan for any real length of time. I think it more likely Pedroia moves over and we deal for a Graffanino-type journeyman or may-have-missed prospect. At last glance our own Jed Lowrie was nowhere near ready for prime-time.
Third Base
The hot corner is another offensively minded position where the Sox are a little lacking with Lowell. However, Lowell's glove cannot be criticized.
Mike Lowell: 2007 ZiPS Projections BA .277 | OBP .342 | SLG .465
Lowell is kind of a cottage speculation industry. Much about him is known: he's a great teammate, plays gold glove defense, is a hot 1st half-player, and sports an inexplicable John Waters moustache as part of his van dyke. However, ever since his mid-boggingly awful 2005, the vultures have been circling. He fell off a cliff in the second half of last year, as per usual, dropping 136 points in OPS after the All-Star break. Everyone is wondering - when will the slump become the norm (for reference see Millar, Kevin), or when will he figure out how to hit for a full season? Given his age, more of us are wondering the former.
Nevertheless, Lowell will be the third baseman until further notice, and frankly if he is not traded by the end of S.T. he probably won't be. You want him for the first part of the year, not the second. It's fun to conjecture that he might be better off with more days of rest earlier in the year, but what manager wants to sit a guy who's tearing it up? Ride the hot hand - that's the rule of thumb. Nevertheless, Hinske may see some action against LHPs to spell Youks and/or Lowell, and once again we will watch Mikey play with our fingers crossed, and play the conjecture game.
As an aside, there is no one in the minors who projects to be even close to matching Lowell's production. Top 3B prospect Chad Spann struck out in nearly 25% of his ABs in AA last year and was lackluster against AFL talent. Basically, root for Mikey.
Next....the outfield.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
The 40-Man Roster
Spring training is upon us! We will wish Lenny Dinardo well out here in the Bay Area as he leaves to make room for JD Drew. We can now look at the finalized Red Sox 40-man roster for 2007. I've compiled a quick view of the 2007 roster in the spreadsheet below, listing each player with their 2007 salary and ZiPS projection. ZiPS is a publicly shared projection methodology created by Dan Szymborski of the Baseball Think Factory. You can get them for all teams here.
You can enlarge the image by clicking on it. Obviously, this is a projection system, and as such is based on historical statistics. Therefore some of the numbers will not reflect the new reality. For example, Pineiro doesn't have enough history as a reliever to generate projections for that role, so his projections are as a starter. Szymborski knew late last season that Papelbon would go into '07 as a starter, so his numbers are a hybrid. Et cetera, et cetera, blah, blah, blah, what I'm saying is take these numbers with a grain of salt.
I'll be covering the various groups of players (SP, RP, OF, INF, UTIL)in more detail in upcoming entries. I just wanted to baseline things here, and ease into the mayhem. This has been a hectic offseason, a lot of drama, but all in all you have to feel pretty good about this team as it's built right now (did I say this in 2006?... you bet your sweet ass). At the very least, with El Guapo just up the highway in Nashua, there will be ample opportunity for amusement.
You can enlarge the image by clicking on it. Obviously, this is a projection system, and as such is based on historical statistics. Therefore some of the numbers will not reflect the new reality. For example, Pineiro doesn't have enough history as a reliever to generate projections for that role, so his projections are as a starter. Szymborski knew late last season that Papelbon would go into '07 as a starter, so his numbers are a hybrid. Et cetera, et cetera, blah, blah, blah, what I'm saying is take these numbers with a grain of salt.
I'll be covering the various groups of players (SP, RP, OF, INF, UTIL)in more detail in upcoming entries. I just wanted to baseline things here, and ease into the mayhem. This has been a hectic offseason, a lot of drama, but all in all you have to feel pretty good about this team as it's built right now (did I say this in 2006?... you bet your sweet ass). At the very least, with El Guapo just up the highway in Nashua, there will be ample opportunity for amusement.
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
FA Signings by WARP-3 (Position Players)
Quick post with some analysis of the FA signings this offseason, as promised in an earlier article. What I've done here is taken Baseball Prospectus's WARP-3 value, and weighted it 3-2-1 in favor of the most recent seasons - so 2006 has the most weight. WARP-1 is described as "The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done", but WARP-3 is adjusted for difficulty, and accounts for 162-game seasons (not really necessary since the seasons in question were 162 games). What I'm basically trying to show here is the amount of money teams paid per year (AAV = Average Annual Value) per WARP-3. This is quick and dirty, and doesn't take into account certain aspects of the player, but should serve as a baseline for analyzing some of these signings.
The graph file is pretty big, so hopefully it is readable. If you would like the original Excel email me for it at Bosoxwest@yahoo.com.
Spreadsheet here:
The interesting thing to note here for Sox fans is of course where Drew and Lugo fall in the mix. Drew is getting around $250K less per WARP-3 per year than Soriano, and about $100K more per year than Matthews Jr. In the abstract this isn't great in and of itself, except when you take into account the fact that Soriano's contract has three more years on it than Drew's and the fact that 2006 was Matthews Jr's career year almost by a factor of 2. In that upper echelon of AAV per WARP, outside of Soriano and perhaps Ramirez, there's no player I'd rather have than Drew, and given the years the contract looks pretty good. The Lee contract, as previously noted, is a fucking joke - pardon my french.
The Lugo signing, once again, looks very, very good. Look at the names above him, and it becomes pretty clear. Interestingly, the Cora signing looks absolutely ridiculous on paper. I guess they're paying for intangibles.
The best positional bargains of the offseason thus far? Kevin Millar, and Adam Kennedy. Of the guys who could play every day and help the team (Counsell and Clayton will be bench players), these guys signed for very short money in the current market. In baseball, as in all other areas of life, it does not pay to be an unathletic-looking white guy.
I'll try to take a look at pitchers in the coming weeks. It's a bit trickier, but we'll see how the trending works out.
The graph file is pretty big, so hopefully it is readable. If you would like the original Excel email me for it at Bosoxwest@yahoo.com.
Spreadsheet here:
The interesting thing to note here for Sox fans is of course where Drew and Lugo fall in the mix. Drew is getting around $250K less per WARP-3 per year than Soriano, and about $100K more per year than Matthews Jr. In the abstract this isn't great in and of itself, except when you take into account the fact that Soriano's contract has three more years on it than Drew's and the fact that 2006 was Matthews Jr's career year almost by a factor of 2. In that upper echelon of AAV per WARP, outside of Soriano and perhaps Ramirez, there's no player I'd rather have than Drew, and given the years the contract looks pretty good. The Lee contract, as previously noted, is a fucking joke - pardon my french.
The Lugo signing, once again, looks very, very good. Look at the names above him, and it becomes pretty clear. Interestingly, the Cora signing looks absolutely ridiculous on paper. I guess they're paying for intangibles.
The best positional bargains of the offseason thus far? Kevin Millar, and Adam Kennedy. Of the guys who could play every day and help the team (Counsell and Clayton will be bench players), these guys signed for very short money in the current market. In baseball, as in all other areas of life, it does not pay to be an unathletic-looking white guy.
I'll try to take a look at pitchers in the coming weeks. It's a bit trickier, but we'll see how the trending works out.
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Red Sox Select Nick Debarr in Rule 5 Draft
In today's Rule 5 Draft the Sox picked up big righty reliever Nick Debarr. Debarr was a 14th round pick by Tampa Bay in the 2002 amateur draft. Debarr is 6' 4" 220 lbs. and pitched for Visalia in the California league last year. He came back last year from Tommy John surgery, apparently very well.
Here's a quick scouting blurb on him from Rays Baseball in 2004:
"DeBarr is a hoss; 6’4, 220, 20 years-old, possess a low-90’s fastball that BA thinks could improve as DeBarr continues to add strength, a plus splitter and a decent slider. He had better results when he became more aggressive, a trait he will need to keep as he moves up to Bakersfield this year."
What do we like about Nick? A good K rate (avg. 6.8 but nearly 8 last year), has fixed the K:BB rate (up to nearly 4:1 last year after a tough previous season), and a low WHIP (1.13 last year), and of course he has the prototypical "pitcher's build". What's not to like? Well, he's only had success at high-A, so he's a longshot to stick on the 25-man roster for the season. He'd really need to surprise.
Naturally, when your bullpen features Mike Timlin, you want to amass as many options as possible, and if Debarr can locate his fastball and in fact has a plus secondary pitch, he could help this team. Under normal circumstances we could decide we like him and trade or send cash to Tampa Bay to keep him, but since Tampa Bay despises our FO that might be tough. It may well be a situation where we throw him into the fire, and it's sink or swim. Or, I guess he might be a trading chip to be used in the near term, or kicked back to TB.
At any rate, for $50K, it seems like a reasonable chance to take. As I've always maintained, nothing's more fun than rooting for the longshot, so here's to Nick.
The other positive outcome from the Rule 5 Draft is that exposed Red Sox prospect Chad Spann was not claimed by any team. This probably explains why he was left unprotected. Spann has a ways to go yet, certainly defensively, but has the potential to be a big-league contributor, so I'm happy he stays with us. Moerover, Pawtucket already has a lot of holes on that team, and I don't want them to suck. So there's that.
And a week until the Matsuzaka deadline...
Here's a quick scouting blurb on him from Rays Baseball in 2004:
"DeBarr is a hoss; 6’4, 220, 20 years-old, possess a low-90’s fastball that BA thinks could improve as DeBarr continues to add strength, a plus splitter and a decent slider. He had better results when he became more aggressive, a trait he will need to keep as he moves up to Bakersfield this year."
What do we like about Nick? A good K rate (avg. 6.8 but nearly 8 last year), has fixed the K:BB rate (up to nearly 4:1 last year after a tough previous season), and a low WHIP (1.13 last year), and of course he has the prototypical "pitcher's build". What's not to like? Well, he's only had success at high-A, so he's a longshot to stick on the 25-man roster for the season. He'd really need to surprise.
Naturally, when your bullpen features Mike Timlin, you want to amass as many options as possible, and if Debarr can locate his fastball and in fact has a plus secondary pitch, he could help this team. Under normal circumstances we could decide we like him and trade or send cash to Tampa Bay to keep him, but since Tampa Bay despises our FO that might be tough. It may well be a situation where we throw him into the fire, and it's sink or swim. Or, I guess he might be a trading chip to be used in the near term, or kicked back to TB.
At any rate, for $50K, it seems like a reasonable chance to take. As I've always maintained, nothing's more fun than rooting for the longshot, so here's to Nick.
The other positive outcome from the Rule 5 Draft is that exposed Red Sox prospect Chad Spann was not claimed by any team. This probably explains why he was left unprotected. Spann has a ways to go yet, certainly defensively, but has the potential to be a big-league contributor, so I'm happy he stays with us. Moerover, Pawtucket already has a lot of holes on that team, and I don't want them to suck. So there's that.
And a week until the Matsuzaka deadline...
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
Sox Sign Two, Get Raped By Media
It appears that Manny is staying, and Drew and Lugo are coming on board, and essentially the Sox are spending a boatload of money. Really, there should be no surprises here. They've looked at trading Manny for the past three years, and it hasn't happened, and their demands have escalated if anything, due to the absurd free agent costs in the current market. The reports on Drew and Lugo have positioned the Sox as the front-runners for weeks now. They had the biggest needs, the wherewithal, and they pulled the trigger.
First off, let me say that I haved mixed feelings about these signings but no doubt everyone does. What I am comfortable accepting is that given today's market these are not only fair, but probably good contracts. Before we start going berserk about Drew's injury history or Lugo's LA stint, which we can certainly do, we have to start with the new baseline: the contracts of Soriano and Lee.
Soriano signed an 8-year, $136 million contract. This contract is staggering, of course. Lee, who was signed to a simply terrible contract, will get $100 million for 6 years in Houston. Taking a WARP average of the last five years, those guys are getting paid roughly $2.5 Mil (Soriano) and $3.7 Mil (Lee) per WARP, or Win Above Replacement Player.
I am guessing that the average AAR per WARP at somewhere in the vicinity of $2.2 Mil, for this offseason, but I will research further. The Soriano deal makes some sense from this perspective, in that he was one of the best available players - it's really just the number of years that scare you. The Lee contract is ridiculous no matter how you slice it (and reportedly he turned down a fatter offer from SF because they completely and utterly suck). He hits. That's it.
Now, on to the Sox signings. Drew first. Drew is getting the same AAR as Soriano per WARP at $2.5 Mil per - again, using an average of his last five years. Here's the thing there - Drew's productivity was greatly hampered by injury. Taking an average of his three healthy years, he's only getting about $2.1 Mil per WARP. So, and this has also been discussed ad nauseam, if healthy Drew is a good signing, even looking at the big numbers in the contract, according to the current market cycle. Thanks to all the negative press, people are conveniently ignoring the fact that he is the closest thing to a 5-tool player to hit the market in years. If it weren't for the injury history, he simply couldn't be had. We're taking the risk. End of story.
So. The knocks on Drew of course are that he is injury-prone (which he is), and that he doesn't play with "passion". The first is a semi-legitimate beef, since he has missed a lot of time over the years. However, he's had two fluke bone breaks, and has also received praise from former managers for playing while hurt. I tend to think this is just bad luck for the most part. I mean, he's no Nomar, that's for goddamn sure. The second is just garbage. Sure, everybody loves Trot Nixon's dirty style of play (and media presence) but you'd be arguing pretty hard to convince me Manny's been "playing with passion" the past years. All we should concern ourselves with is the production. Their personalities are their own.
As an aside, the biggest complainers about Drew's lack of passion are the Dodger fans, who hail from Los Angeles, the most spiritually abject place on the planet. I mean, please. It's getting to the point where we should remove the word "irony" from the dictionary.
The Lugo signing, and I will be the first to point out that I was for keeping Gonzalez on the cheap when it was still an option, and before Soriano had destroyed the marketplace, may turn out to be a steal. He's only getting $1.9 Mil AAR per WARP, and by all accounts he will perform at a higher level in Fenway, and in this lineup, than he has historically. I don't know - I liked Gonzalez's glove a lot, but Lugo brings a lot of different facets to the team. We'll see, but again, based on his historical performance, and compared to the current market rates, he'll be underpaid! Insane.
Now, let me be clear: I've gone through this exercise just to make Sox fans feel better. Really, the Sox simply needed to sign both players since Manny was not going to bring their replacements back. We needed a right-fielder with some power and defensive ability. We needed a #5 hitter. We needed a SS. We're a big market team and we went out and bought the best we could find. That is all.
What we're seeing now in the media, and within the fanbase IMO, is a significant backlash due to the Matsuzaka posting outcome being followed by the Manny trade circus (and anti-climax) and the two big FA signings. Right now the Sox are the 800-lb. gorillas in the room at the winter meetings. The Yanks already have a massive lineup they could hardly expect to improve upon, and just needed to quietly acquire a couple of arms. Notice that the $26 Mil they shelled out to talk to future #4/#5 starter Igawa didn't cause even a ripple in the media. They'll probably sign Pettitte on a one-year deal to finish his career, and he'll be a key piece to what is looking on paper like a championship-caliber team. And nobody is saying anything because the Sox are stomping around the offseason table like Godzilla. Oh, and also, the stomping makes for good copy.
The position many of us will find ourselves in - even moreso than we do already - is that of Second Bully. For years we've defined ourselves as the Galahad of the baseball world: cursed, ever questing for the Holy Grail of a Series title while battling the Dragon from New York. Well, the grail is ours as of 2004, and with this offseason, the Sox have officially begun breathing fire in the eyes of the rest of baseball. This of course does not change our situation one bit - we are still chasing the biggest payroll in American sports in the toughest division in MLB, and we'll do what we have to do. When all is said and done, there's just one requirement: win. However, it's clear the days of sympathetic fans from other cities are long gone.
PLUGGIN'!
If you are at all interested in the future of the Red Sox roster, take a trip to the Sox Prospects Wiki: http://soxprospects.wikispaces.com/. One stop shopping.
First off, let me say that I haved mixed feelings about these signings but no doubt everyone does. What I am comfortable accepting is that given today's market these are not only fair, but probably good contracts. Before we start going berserk about Drew's injury history or Lugo's LA stint, which we can certainly do, we have to start with the new baseline: the contracts of Soriano and Lee.
Soriano signed an 8-year, $136 million contract. This contract is staggering, of course. Lee, who was signed to a simply terrible contract, will get $100 million for 6 years in Houston. Taking a WARP average of the last five years, those guys are getting paid roughly $2.5 Mil (Soriano) and $3.7 Mil (Lee) per WARP, or Win Above Replacement Player.
I am guessing that the average AAR per WARP at somewhere in the vicinity of $2.2 Mil, for this offseason, but I will research further. The Soriano deal makes some sense from this perspective, in that he was one of the best available players - it's really just the number of years that scare you. The Lee contract is ridiculous no matter how you slice it (and reportedly he turned down a fatter offer from SF because they completely and utterly suck). He hits. That's it.
Now, on to the Sox signings. Drew first. Drew is getting the same AAR as Soriano per WARP at $2.5 Mil per - again, using an average of his last five years. Here's the thing there - Drew's productivity was greatly hampered by injury. Taking an average of his three healthy years, he's only getting about $2.1 Mil per WARP. So, and this has also been discussed ad nauseam, if healthy Drew is a good signing, even looking at the big numbers in the contract, according to the current market cycle. Thanks to all the negative press, people are conveniently ignoring the fact that he is the closest thing to a 5-tool player to hit the market in years. If it weren't for the injury history, he simply couldn't be had. We're taking the risk. End of story.
So. The knocks on Drew of course are that he is injury-prone (which he is), and that he doesn't play with "passion". The first is a semi-legitimate beef, since he has missed a lot of time over the years. However, he's had two fluke bone breaks, and has also received praise from former managers for playing while hurt. I tend to think this is just bad luck for the most part. I mean, he's no Nomar, that's for goddamn sure. The second is just garbage. Sure, everybody loves Trot Nixon's dirty style of play (and media presence) but you'd be arguing pretty hard to convince me Manny's been "playing with passion" the past years. All we should concern ourselves with is the production. Their personalities are their own.
As an aside, the biggest complainers about Drew's lack of passion are the Dodger fans, who hail from Los Angeles, the most spiritually abject place on the planet. I mean, please. It's getting to the point where we should remove the word "irony" from the dictionary.
The Lugo signing, and I will be the first to point out that I was for keeping Gonzalez on the cheap when it was still an option, and before Soriano had destroyed the marketplace, may turn out to be a steal. He's only getting $1.9 Mil AAR per WARP, and by all accounts he will perform at a higher level in Fenway, and in this lineup, than he has historically. I don't know - I liked Gonzalez's glove a lot, but Lugo brings a lot of different facets to the team. We'll see, but again, based on his historical performance, and compared to the current market rates, he'll be underpaid! Insane.
Now, let me be clear: I've gone through this exercise just to make Sox fans feel better. Really, the Sox simply needed to sign both players since Manny was not going to bring their replacements back. We needed a right-fielder with some power and defensive ability. We needed a #5 hitter. We needed a SS. We're a big market team and we went out and bought the best we could find. That is all.
What we're seeing now in the media, and within the fanbase IMO, is a significant backlash due to the Matsuzaka posting outcome being followed by the Manny trade circus (and anti-climax) and the two big FA signings. Right now the Sox are the 800-lb. gorillas in the room at the winter meetings. The Yanks already have a massive lineup they could hardly expect to improve upon, and just needed to quietly acquire a couple of arms. Notice that the $26 Mil they shelled out to talk to future #4/#5 starter Igawa didn't cause even a ripple in the media. They'll probably sign Pettitte on a one-year deal to finish his career, and he'll be a key piece to what is looking on paper like a championship-caliber team. And nobody is saying anything because the Sox are stomping around the offseason table like Godzilla. Oh, and also, the stomping makes for good copy.
The position many of us will find ourselves in - even moreso than we do already - is that of Second Bully. For years we've defined ourselves as the Galahad of the baseball world: cursed, ever questing for the Holy Grail of a Series title while battling the Dragon from New York. Well, the grail is ours as of 2004, and with this offseason, the Sox have officially begun breathing fire in the eyes of the rest of baseball. This of course does not change our situation one bit - we are still chasing the biggest payroll in American sports in the toughest division in MLB, and we'll do what we have to do. When all is said and done, there's just one requirement: win. However, it's clear the days of sympathetic fans from other cities are long gone.
PLUGGIN'!
If you are at all interested in the future of the Red Sox roster, take a trip to the Sox Prospects Wiki: http://soxprospects.wikispaces.com/. One stop shopping.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Sox Hot Stove Is Cookin'
Apologies for a long absence. Work is killing me, and I'm too damn prideful to post snippets. I should be able to post consistently in a couple weeks. For now, thought I'd share some thoughts on the offseason, an a couple quick Winter Ball updates.
Rolling the Dice
First, the offseason. The big splash has already been made with the Sox paying $51.1 Million just to speak to Daisuke Masuzaka and his miasmic agent Scott Boras. The media has made a big stink about the expenditure, especially in NY, and have tried to whip up an anti-Sox frenzy by calling this a crazy over-spend. It is not. It is a perfectly sensible, market-rate to below market-rate spend in the 2007 free agent world, even with the Sox overmatching the Mets' next-best bid by $10 Mil.
There are a lot of angles to this deal. The first is the Sox's need for an ace starting pitcher. In today's free agent market, that meant they had three choices: Matsuzaka, Zito, and Schmidt. Schmidt was probably not coming East, and Zito is nowhere near "ace" quality, certainly not against the AL East, and pitching in Fenway. But those two guys were expected to get something in the vicinity of 5/$90M contracts, and that was if you were able to actually sign them. Doing so would (will for the eventual team) take some time, because they will wait until the Padillas, Lillys, and Suppans of the world sign to set the market.
This brings us to the second angle. The Sox have numerous holes to fill, not just SP. Winning the bid on Matsuzaka means they 1) have a monopoly on he negotiations, so they don't have to worry about other teams' bids (or fabricated other teams' bids) and 2) are assured of knowing one way or the other in 30 days. This streamlines their offseason efforts and allows them to spend more energies filling the other holes - RF, SS, RP, b-C, possibly trading Manny, etc..
The next item to figure into the deal is the money. There's the Japanese market itself, where the Sox are looking to gain a foothold. This presence will serve two purposes - one, it makes prospecting easier and more productive, and two, it generates new revenue streams. Averaging all the back-of-the-envelope assessments I've read out there, the Sox should realize in the vicinity of $5-10 Mil annually in ancillary benefits. There's your posting fee, coming back pretty quickly.
The other part about the money is that the posting fee doesn't count against payroll, and so will not go towards incurring luxury taxation, as other signings will. People argue that it goes against Red Sox operations, but if you're JWH, there are countless ways to account for that money.
There is no way to apologize for the fact that the Sox are able to spend $51 Million to speak to Matsuzaka, and there is no reason to either. If they spent $90 Million to sign Zito, it would just be another big market signing, and they are a big marke tteam. If they spend $100 Mil to sign Dice, but $51M is just to talk to him, suddenly they're insane? He's just 26 years old, and by all accounts is one of the best pitchers in the world! He carries the same risk as any pitcher - injury, and league/division adjustment - but if you're talking about spending in that range, get the best guy out there, especially if only half the money goes against payroll, and the other half gets recouped by ancillary market revenue! Christ! Reports from MLB scouts state that he can throw 5 different pitches for strikes. Last year righties hit ~.208 off him, and lefties ~.205 - that is ridiculous. This signing is a smart move by a team that can afford to make big signings, and did.
JD and Julio
By all accounts, the Sox are major players for both of these guys. Sadly, the Cubs are too, although why any player would sign for a team that will destroy their careers is beyond me. If ever a team were truly cursed, the Cubbies are that team.
The shortstop dilemma is very real. With A-Gon having signed with the Reds, there is a lot more pressure to get Lugo signed. We probably don't want Craig Counsell patrolling short next year. In this market Lugo will get a ridiculous amount of money, and it will be an overpay, but the Sox don't have a clear SS replacement in the system. There is still hope for Lowrie, who came on strong in his last 100+ ABs, but whose defense has yet to be proven in the position. Negron is still in A-ball and has a long road to hoe. A team like Boston should not be trotting out a C-level shortstop, so I would expect they go the distance in the Lugo negotiations.
The JD Drew situation is a little different. There is no question he is the best all-around outfielder on the FA market, but after Soriano's clown-car contract (thanks a lot Cubs) he will be looking for something absurd like 5/$75M. If he were a guy without health issues you could probably make the argument that's not too untenable in the current MLB environment, but he's not. Still, Theo has wanted him for a while, he is an instant solution for the gaping 5-hole in the lineup, and defensively he takes care of RF and/or perhaps CF until Ellsbury lands in the event of a Crisp trade. The wrinkle in the Drew negotiations is that he makes Crisp or Super-Genius a 4th outfielder (and Murphy nothing, really) or trade bait unless the Manny trade happens.
I'm thinking if they sign Drew and Lugo they trade Manny. People are rightly pointing out that replacing Manny's production in the lineup, pound for pound, is impossible, and that's true. Drew is a good enough hitter to protect Papi, however, in my opinion (and folks will argue), and the fact is that all the "keep Manny" talk is predicated on the assumption that Manny was faking his injury(s) last year. If we were to take into account the fact that his knees might actually be going, Theo and Co. will never get back the value they can right now. This offseason is a perfect storm in terms of getting value back for Manny's bat, and I think they'll take advantage of that, if they can acquire two offensively productive positional players in Drew and Lugo.
AFL, HWL Notes
In the Arizona Fall League, which recently finished up, the Sox had a number of players suited up for the Peoria Javelinas. Ellsbury and Spann played the field and Dinardo, Hertzler, Jackson and Pauley were on the mound. Team stats are here, but for the most part everybody was average, with the exception of Kyle Jackson's luck - he was 6-0 with a 6.23 ERA, and last I heard was hitchhiking to Vegas. Dinardo impressed the most on the mound, with a 1.27 WHIP and 3:1 K:BB ratio. Neither Spann nor Ellsbury shone at the plate, but the raves about Ellsbury's defense continued. One study, which you can see here at SOSH, has Ellsbury at 65 plays above average for 150 games, which, while probably impossible, highlights the simply outstanding range and instincts. Even if he doesn't hit, there are a few scenarios which see him on the 40-man by end of 2007.
Meanwhile, out in Hawaii, Jeff Corsaletti and John Otness are playing for the West Oahu Cane Fires. Ryan Phillips went out there but pitched just once and hasn't been seen since, and no one knows why. Otness has really impressed, hitting .328 with an OPS of .845, and playing decent D. Corsaletti, on the other hand, is in a crushing slump, hitting .138 with an OPS of .500. He's not K-ing a ton, so either he's not making good contact or is incredibly unlucky. Impossible to know.
Cane Fires team stats are here. That league is still ongoing. I can't understand why there is no TV market for these leagues, because I for one would watch. There's an idea for any of you young entrepreneurs out there.
Rolling the Dice
First, the offseason. The big splash has already been made with the Sox paying $51.1 Million just to speak to Daisuke Masuzaka and his miasmic agent Scott Boras. The media has made a big stink about the expenditure, especially in NY, and have tried to whip up an anti-Sox frenzy by calling this a crazy over-spend. It is not. It is a perfectly sensible, market-rate to below market-rate spend in the 2007 free agent world, even with the Sox overmatching the Mets' next-best bid by $10 Mil.
There are a lot of angles to this deal. The first is the Sox's need for an ace starting pitcher. In today's free agent market, that meant they had three choices: Matsuzaka, Zito, and Schmidt. Schmidt was probably not coming East, and Zito is nowhere near "ace" quality, certainly not against the AL East, and pitching in Fenway. But those two guys were expected to get something in the vicinity of 5/$90M contracts, and that was if you were able to actually sign them. Doing so would (will for the eventual team) take some time, because they will wait until the Padillas, Lillys, and Suppans of the world sign to set the market.
This brings us to the second angle. The Sox have numerous holes to fill, not just SP. Winning the bid on Matsuzaka means they 1) have a monopoly on he negotiations, so they don't have to worry about other teams' bids (or fabricated other teams' bids) and 2) are assured of knowing one way or the other in 30 days. This streamlines their offseason efforts and allows them to spend more energies filling the other holes - RF, SS, RP, b-C, possibly trading Manny, etc..
The next item to figure into the deal is the money. There's the Japanese market itself, where the Sox are looking to gain a foothold. This presence will serve two purposes - one, it makes prospecting easier and more productive, and two, it generates new revenue streams. Averaging all the back-of-the-envelope assessments I've read out there, the Sox should realize in the vicinity of $5-10 Mil annually in ancillary benefits. There's your posting fee, coming back pretty quickly.
The other part about the money is that the posting fee doesn't count against payroll, and so will not go towards incurring luxury taxation, as other signings will. People argue that it goes against Red Sox operations, but if you're JWH, there are countless ways to account for that money.
There is no way to apologize for the fact that the Sox are able to spend $51 Million to speak to Matsuzaka, and there is no reason to either. If they spent $90 Million to sign Zito, it would just be another big market signing, and they are a big marke tteam. If they spend $100 Mil to sign Dice, but $51M is just to talk to him, suddenly they're insane? He's just 26 years old, and by all accounts is one of the best pitchers in the world! He carries the same risk as any pitcher - injury, and league/division adjustment - but if you're talking about spending in that range, get the best guy out there, especially if only half the money goes against payroll, and the other half gets recouped by ancillary market revenue! Christ! Reports from MLB scouts state that he can throw 5 different pitches for strikes. Last year righties hit ~.208 off him, and lefties ~.205 - that is ridiculous. This signing is a smart move by a team that can afford to make big signings, and did.
JD and Julio
By all accounts, the Sox are major players for both of these guys. Sadly, the Cubs are too, although why any player would sign for a team that will destroy their careers is beyond me. If ever a team were truly cursed, the Cubbies are that team.
The shortstop dilemma is very real. With A-Gon having signed with the Reds, there is a lot more pressure to get Lugo signed. We probably don't want Craig Counsell patrolling short next year. In this market Lugo will get a ridiculous amount of money, and it will be an overpay, but the Sox don't have a clear SS replacement in the system. There is still hope for Lowrie, who came on strong in his last 100+ ABs, but whose defense has yet to be proven in the position. Negron is still in A-ball and has a long road to hoe. A team like Boston should not be trotting out a C-level shortstop, so I would expect they go the distance in the Lugo negotiations.
The JD Drew situation is a little different. There is no question he is the best all-around outfielder on the FA market, but after Soriano's clown-car contract (thanks a lot Cubs) he will be looking for something absurd like 5/$75M. If he were a guy without health issues you could probably make the argument that's not too untenable in the current MLB environment, but he's not. Still, Theo has wanted him for a while, he is an instant solution for the gaping 5-hole in the lineup, and defensively he takes care of RF and/or perhaps CF until Ellsbury lands in the event of a Crisp trade. The wrinkle in the Drew negotiations is that he makes Crisp or Super-Genius a 4th outfielder (and Murphy nothing, really) or trade bait unless the Manny trade happens.
I'm thinking if they sign Drew and Lugo they trade Manny. People are rightly pointing out that replacing Manny's production in the lineup, pound for pound, is impossible, and that's true. Drew is a good enough hitter to protect Papi, however, in my opinion (and folks will argue), and the fact is that all the "keep Manny" talk is predicated on the assumption that Manny was faking his injury(s) last year. If we were to take into account the fact that his knees might actually be going, Theo and Co. will never get back the value they can right now. This offseason is a perfect storm in terms of getting value back for Manny's bat, and I think they'll take advantage of that, if they can acquire two offensively productive positional players in Drew and Lugo.
AFL, HWL Notes
In the Arizona Fall League, which recently finished up, the Sox had a number of players suited up for the Peoria Javelinas. Ellsbury and Spann played the field and Dinardo, Hertzler, Jackson and Pauley were on the mound. Team stats are here, but for the most part everybody was average, with the exception of Kyle Jackson's luck - he was 6-0 with a 6.23 ERA, and last I heard was hitchhiking to Vegas. Dinardo impressed the most on the mound, with a 1.27 WHIP and 3:1 K:BB ratio. Neither Spann nor Ellsbury shone at the plate, but the raves about Ellsbury's defense continued. One study, which you can see here at SOSH, has Ellsbury at 65 plays above average for 150 games, which, while probably impossible, highlights the simply outstanding range and instincts. Even if he doesn't hit, there are a few scenarios which see him on the 40-man by end of 2007.
Meanwhile, out in Hawaii, Jeff Corsaletti and John Otness are playing for the West Oahu Cane Fires. Ryan Phillips went out there but pitched just once and hasn't been seen since, and no one knows why. Otness has really impressed, hitting .328 with an OPS of .845, and playing decent D. Corsaletti, on the other hand, is in a crushing slump, hitting .138 with an OPS of .500. He's not K-ing a ton, so either he's not making good contact or is incredibly unlucky. Impossible to know.
Cane Fires team stats are here. That league is still ongoing. I can't understand why there is no TV market for these leagues, because I for one would watch. There's an idea for any of you young entrepreneurs out there.
Monday, October 30, 2006
Whither Youks?
One of the biggest discussion points in the world of Red Sox geeks recently has been the future of Kevin Youkilis. Youks is not a classic corner infielder due to his lack of power, and the Sox, with their payroll, should probably be able to upgrade. That said, Youks has a very favorable price-tag, plays hard, and maybe is just cursed with crappy accountant's body. Who's to say? Well, I took a look.
First, the bad news. Youks, as a first baseman, doesn't realy match up too well against other first basemen, when looking at the usual stats:
2006 stats:
Player A: AB 569 R 100 HR 13 RBI 72 AVG .279 OPS .381 SLG .429 OPS .810
Player B: AB 430 R 64 HR 15 RBI 64 AVG .274 OPS .374 SLG .437 OPS .811
Obviously, player A is Youks. The problem is, Player B is Millar. That's right, KFC-eating, JD-drinking, hair-highlighting Kevin Millar. Notice, I didn't say "fat", or "lumpy" - that description would have no business being in a Youkilis comparison.
Youks's thing was supposed to be strike-zone command, and contact. As we saw, it was middling, as he struck out 120 times. However, he walked nearly 91, and his Line Drive percentage at nearly 25% was good. He did was he was advertised to do.
Here's the thing. Youks' OBP is good, but it's 9th among starting first basemen in the majors. You have to get down to #20 on the list before you find a guy whose OBP is under .350 (Prince Fielder), which is still respectable given the power. Meanwhile, Youks SLG is #22 of 24 (just above Todd Walker and Jeff Conine). So the guy kind of averages out in the lower part of the middle of the pack. Not too good for a $130Mil payroll.
That said, Youks has impacts that are more than the sum of his parts, statistically speaking. His RC (Runs Created) for the season puts him at #12 overall (although his RC/Game or RC/27 is #15) for first baseman. He was also #3 on the Sox in WPA for the season, although to some degree this is injury-related. Still, at 1.94 he compared favorably to Overbay and Konerko (and Soriano) who were just above 2. I use those numbers to show that while he may not produce a lot in the way of the more typical numbers, he helps the team win (he led 1Bmen with 12 sac hits, for example).
Now, the other great things about Youks is he plays both positions. When you move Youks over to third his OBP becomes much more elite - he's at #5. His SLG is still poor at #17, but his OPS is still #13. However, his RC and RC/G move up to #8, and he shoots up to #6 in WPA for 3B. At third base, the argument can easily be made he's one of the top ten offensive producers in the game. That's more like it.
I think the position of many people is that the Sox should be able to afford a corner infielder who is higher than the 12-15 range at his position. And that's fair, if you look at Youks as a first baseman. The real issue is, how do we address that? The real impact first baseman playing today are not easily acquired, so we'd need to take a flyer on a Carlos Pena, or trade for an unproven up-and-comer, or give up some major prospects and put a ton of money into a Teixeira. Unlikely.
However, again, by some more "holistic" metrics, Youks is a top-10 producer offensively at the other corner (for example, he's 20+ runs better than Inge and Blalock). Of course, his glove won't match up with Lowell's, but his contract does, so that's another angle to consider. I guess it seems to me that this is a problem of perspective - I don't like thinking about keeping Youks at first when we break down the numbers, but it may be easier to find an impact bat at third and Youks plays first reasonably well.
If someone has to be dealt to create more offense, in the end, it will come down to the moving pieces. If not, and the Sox could acquire a bat at 1B, Youks makes an elite platoon guy, but I would think that's a last resort. The facts are, Youks is valuable enough at third to play there for the Sox, or be an important piece in a deal this offseason, with Lowell winning the job by default.
The Not Too Too Distant Future?
Chad Spann, a 22-year old third baseman in the Sox organization, has put up a .918 OPS in his first 43 ABs in the Arizona Fall League. This is a small sample size, but the AFL is a who's who of up and coming prospects. Spann, at a young age, is building on a pretty impressive year at Portland (.833 OPS), and if he can keep it up the Sox may have the corner position solved for some time to come. At this point he needs to cut down on the Ks, but at his age, discipline can still come.
First, the bad news. Youks, as a first baseman, doesn't realy match up too well against other first basemen, when looking at the usual stats:
2006 stats:
Player A: AB 569 R 100 HR 13 RBI 72 AVG .279 OPS .381 SLG .429 OPS .810
Player B: AB 430 R 64 HR 15 RBI 64 AVG .274 OPS .374 SLG .437 OPS .811
Obviously, player A is Youks. The problem is, Player B is Millar. That's right, KFC-eating, JD-drinking, hair-highlighting Kevin Millar. Notice, I didn't say "fat", or "lumpy" - that description would have no business being in a Youkilis comparison.
Youks's thing was supposed to be strike-zone command, and contact. As we saw, it was middling, as he struck out 120 times. However, he walked nearly 91, and his Line Drive percentage at nearly 25% was good. He did was he was advertised to do.
Here's the thing. Youks' OBP is good, but it's 9th among starting first basemen in the majors. You have to get down to #20 on the list before you find a guy whose OBP is under .350 (Prince Fielder), which is still respectable given the power. Meanwhile, Youks SLG is #22 of 24 (just above Todd Walker and Jeff Conine). So the guy kind of averages out in the lower part of the middle of the pack. Not too good for a $130Mil payroll.
That said, Youks has impacts that are more than the sum of his parts, statistically speaking. His RC (Runs Created) for the season puts him at #12 overall (although his RC/Game or RC/27 is #15) for first baseman. He was also #3 on the Sox in WPA for the season, although to some degree this is injury-related. Still, at 1.94 he compared favorably to Overbay and Konerko (and Soriano) who were just above 2. I use those numbers to show that while he may not produce a lot in the way of the more typical numbers, he helps the team win (he led 1Bmen with 12 sac hits, for example).
Now, the other great things about Youks is he plays both positions. When you move Youks over to third his OBP becomes much more elite - he's at #5. His SLG is still poor at #17, but his OPS is still #13. However, his RC and RC/G move up to #8, and he shoots up to #6 in WPA for 3B. At third base, the argument can easily be made he's one of the top ten offensive producers in the game. That's more like it.
I think the position of many people is that the Sox should be able to afford a corner infielder who is higher than the 12-15 range at his position. And that's fair, if you look at Youks as a first baseman. The real issue is, how do we address that? The real impact first baseman playing today are not easily acquired, so we'd need to take a flyer on a Carlos Pena, or trade for an unproven up-and-comer, or give up some major prospects and put a ton of money into a Teixeira. Unlikely.
However, again, by some more "holistic" metrics, Youks is a top-10 producer offensively at the other corner (for example, he's 20+ runs better than Inge and Blalock). Of course, his glove won't match up with Lowell's, but his contract does, so that's another angle to consider. I guess it seems to me that this is a problem of perspective - I don't like thinking about keeping Youks at first when we break down the numbers, but it may be easier to find an impact bat at third and Youks plays first reasonably well.
If someone has to be dealt to create more offense, in the end, it will come down to the moving pieces. If not, and the Sox could acquire a bat at 1B, Youks makes an elite platoon guy, but I would think that's a last resort. The facts are, Youks is valuable enough at third to play there for the Sox, or be an important piece in a deal this offseason, with Lowell winning the job by default.
The Not Too Too Distant Future?
Chad Spann, a 22-year old third baseman in the Sox organization, has put up a .918 OPS in his first 43 ABs in the Arizona Fall League. This is a small sample size, but the AFL is a who's who of up and coming prospects. Spann, at a young age, is building on a pretty impressive year at Portland (.833 OPS), and if he can keep it up the Sox may have the corner position solved for some time to come. At this point he needs to cut down on the Ks, but at his age, discipline can still come.
Friday, October 06, 2006
Mannygate
2006 is over, and good riddance. Regardless of where you choose to point your finger, the story remains the same
There is only one real story in Red Sox Nation right now, and that pertains, again, to the future of Manny Ramirez. Nearly all the offseason speculation could be said to hang on the outcome of a Manny trade, or non-trade. I am personally ambivalent about trading him, because it is very hard to duplicate the production of a 1.000+ OPS hitter, but of course it's not too hard to gain back some runs by putting someone in left field who has a clue.
Let's assume that Manny is serious this time, that Tito has had enough, and that the Sox have to make a trade. Next, we have to look at the dependencies around this deal. What are the keys to keeping the team competitive without one of it's most imperative offensive components?
The first goal will be to ensure Big Papi has some protection in the lineup. They will not be able to replace Manny with equal production from a single player, but they cannot detract from Papi's production. Adding two more good bats should accomplish this. I've discussed in this space before the fact the Sox production from the five-hole in 2006 was the worst in baseball - for the season they were the only team to have a sub-.700 OPS in the five spot. That is simply incredible, and in my opinion the strongest contributor to their abysmal performance with RISP (.748). They need a solid #4 with longball power and good strikezone judgement, and a number five who either crushes mistakes or has enough gap power to drive guys in regularly (at minimum). These things may not necessarily be achieved with the Manny trade itself, but the trade can't happen without these things also happening, unless they are tanking for 2007.
The second goal will be providing a similar degree of value to the club as Manny now provides. Manny is a lot of hit, no D, no speed corner outfielder who nonetheless has the second highest WPA on the team behind Ortiz, and is rated as having the 14th-highest VORP for positional players in all of baseball (just for fun, Hanley Ramirez was #22). Manny also has some negative "intangibles" that bring his value down, and of course his age and health need to be factored in. Nevertheless, getting value on the dollar is tough, even bearing in mind that the old adage "a penny saved is a penny earned" applies here due to his cost.
Given these two things, how does the FO manage the trade potentiality? First, off they look at the overall needs of the team. As I mentioned above they need a #4 and #5 hitter, but even more desperately they need pitching - at least one starter and a reliever or two. They need defense up the middle - Crisp is not a CF and AGon is on the market. These needs exist independent of the Manny trade, but the trade would need to address at least some of them.
The pitching situation doesn't sort itself out easily. So far they've got Schilling, Beckett, Wake, Paps, Snyder, and (gulp) Tavarez. We can assume they need one more. If the Sox were even to pursue Matsuzake, they would almost certainly be outbid by the MFYs, who can throw all the cash in the world at Seibu for the negotiating rights, and then it's a done deal. That leaves them either in a bidding war for Zito, or closing early on a Padilla or Wolf. My vote would be for Padilla, who put together some strong starts last year in Texas' bandbox. I like Zito a lot, but the price is going to get crazy. With regard to the Manny trade, it's been supposed that Anaheim would do Santana-plus for Manny, but that doesn't feel right to me. I don't think they need him enough.
Of course, the FO could trade the entire farm for Dontrelle Willis and watch all the players traded away excel for Florida, who then wins the Series in 2007. I suppose that's the most likely outcome. To be honest, pitching is too much of a premium in the AL for me to see Manny bringing back enough to make the deal work, unless the arm is not close to big-league ready. That doesn't seem to fit here, so I'm thinking the deal is for a positional player(s).
If the FO decides Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius is ready to hit fifth full-time, that creates one less issue to deal with. The fact that the SG does not hit lefties well is a problem though, because spare bat Eric Hinske also does not hit lefties well, which is presumably why he is a spare bat. Ideally the Sox move Lowell and pick up a true corner infielder with some power, who slots into one of these spots. Aramis Ramirez is the free agent solution, although one would have to assume he moves into the clean-up spot. I had another idea for the Manny trade though.
In spite of reports that the firing of Buck Showalter may have put to rest the Rangers' interest in trading for Manny, the best trade I see out there for the Sox is trading Manny and a so-so arm for Michael Young and a high-ceiling prospy, and sending Texas $6-7 million a year over the next two years. If they pick up Young's option for 2008 they would still be getting him at fair market value, and he brings a lot back in return. Replacing Gonzalez's bat with Young's means you can fill in the rest of the offensive gaps more easily, because Young is such an upgrade. His defense may not be as stellar: defensive ratings have him just below Gonzalez in UZR (.863 to .836) but having better RF (4.86 to 4.36) in 2006, and he had more errors. But sewing him up at short gives the team a solid option for a number of years at a prime position.
Texas has youngster Joaquin Arias ready to go: he has played well at AAA and is often cited as one of the most athletic players in the Ranger organization. He's a gifted, Hanley-type player who's just starting to put the ability and the experience together. Manny would destroy Arlington Stadium, just destroy it, and a Teixeira, Manny, Blalock line-up is pretty fearsome. Young has made it clear he wants to win (read, fix this mess or trade me), and while the Sox probably didn't impress him that much this year they would have every opportunity to do so next year provided they do things right in the offseason. He appears to be the type of player who would relish the passion in Boston.
In my opinion this deal leaves the Sox with the most flexibility in the near term, assuming that nobody knocks their socks off with MLB-ready talent (which I am assuming). They can afford to be over the luxury tax threshold under the current CBA, and a lot of money comes off the books after next season in Schilling. They can sign a couple of the free agent names if they need to. If they ponied up for Zito and a second-tier bat, or Ramirez and Padilla in addition to Young, and grabbed a decent reliever off the heap, it would be okay by me.
Next week: my latest crazy scheme.
There is only one real story in Red Sox Nation right now, and that pertains, again, to the future of Manny Ramirez. Nearly all the offseason speculation could be said to hang on the outcome of a Manny trade, or non-trade. I am personally ambivalent about trading him, because it is very hard to duplicate the production of a 1.000+ OPS hitter, but of course it's not too hard to gain back some runs by putting someone in left field who has a clue.
Let's assume that Manny is serious this time, that Tito has had enough, and that the Sox have to make a trade. Next, we have to look at the dependencies around this deal. What are the keys to keeping the team competitive without one of it's most imperative offensive components?
The first goal will be to ensure Big Papi has some protection in the lineup. They will not be able to replace Manny with equal production from a single player, but they cannot detract from Papi's production. Adding two more good bats should accomplish this. I've discussed in this space before the fact the Sox production from the five-hole in 2006 was the worst in baseball - for the season they were the only team to have a sub-.700 OPS in the five spot. That is simply incredible, and in my opinion the strongest contributor to their abysmal performance with RISP (.748). They need a solid #4 with longball power and good strikezone judgement, and a number five who either crushes mistakes or has enough gap power to drive guys in regularly (at minimum). These things may not necessarily be achieved with the Manny trade itself, but the trade can't happen without these things also happening, unless they are tanking for 2007.
The second goal will be providing a similar degree of value to the club as Manny now provides. Manny is a lot of hit, no D, no speed corner outfielder who nonetheless has the second highest WPA on the team behind Ortiz, and is rated as having the 14th-highest VORP for positional players in all of baseball (just for fun, Hanley Ramirez was #22). Manny also has some negative "intangibles" that bring his value down, and of course his age and health need to be factored in. Nevertheless, getting value on the dollar is tough, even bearing in mind that the old adage "a penny saved is a penny earned" applies here due to his cost.
Given these two things, how does the FO manage the trade potentiality? First, off they look at the overall needs of the team. As I mentioned above they need a #4 and #5 hitter, but even more desperately they need pitching - at least one starter and a reliever or two. They need defense up the middle - Crisp is not a CF and AGon is on the market. These needs exist independent of the Manny trade, but the trade would need to address at least some of them.
The pitching situation doesn't sort itself out easily. So far they've got Schilling, Beckett, Wake, Paps, Snyder, and (gulp) Tavarez. We can assume they need one more. If the Sox were even to pursue Matsuzake, they would almost certainly be outbid by the MFYs, who can throw all the cash in the world at Seibu for the negotiating rights, and then it's a done deal. That leaves them either in a bidding war for Zito, or closing early on a Padilla or Wolf. My vote would be for Padilla, who put together some strong starts last year in Texas' bandbox. I like Zito a lot, but the price is going to get crazy. With regard to the Manny trade, it's been supposed that Anaheim would do Santana-plus for Manny, but that doesn't feel right to me. I don't think they need him enough.
Of course, the FO could trade the entire farm for Dontrelle Willis and watch all the players traded away excel for Florida, who then wins the Series in 2007. I suppose that's the most likely outcome. To be honest, pitching is too much of a premium in the AL for me to see Manny bringing back enough to make the deal work, unless the arm is not close to big-league ready. That doesn't seem to fit here, so I'm thinking the deal is for a positional player(s).
If the FO decides Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius is ready to hit fifth full-time, that creates one less issue to deal with. The fact that the SG does not hit lefties well is a problem though, because spare bat Eric Hinske also does not hit lefties well, which is presumably why he is a spare bat. Ideally the Sox move Lowell and pick up a true corner infielder with some power, who slots into one of these spots. Aramis Ramirez is the free agent solution, although one would have to assume he moves into the clean-up spot. I had another idea for the Manny trade though.
In spite of reports that the firing of Buck Showalter may have put to rest the Rangers' interest in trading for Manny, the best trade I see out there for the Sox is trading Manny and a so-so arm for Michael Young and a high-ceiling prospy, and sending Texas $6-7 million a year over the next two years. If they pick up Young's option for 2008 they would still be getting him at fair market value, and he brings a lot back in return. Replacing Gonzalez's bat with Young's means you can fill in the rest of the offensive gaps more easily, because Young is such an upgrade. His defense may not be as stellar: defensive ratings have him just below Gonzalez in UZR (.863 to .836) but having better RF (4.86 to 4.36) in 2006, and he had more errors. But sewing him up at short gives the team a solid option for a number of years at a prime position.
Texas has youngster Joaquin Arias ready to go: he has played well at AAA and is often cited as one of the most athletic players in the Ranger organization. He's a gifted, Hanley-type player who's just starting to put the ability and the experience together. Manny would destroy Arlington Stadium, just destroy it, and a Teixeira, Manny, Blalock line-up is pretty fearsome. Young has made it clear he wants to win (read, fix this mess or trade me), and while the Sox probably didn't impress him that much this year they would have every opportunity to do so next year provided they do things right in the offseason. He appears to be the type of player who would relish the passion in Boston.
In my opinion this deal leaves the Sox with the most flexibility in the near term, assuming that nobody knocks their socks off with MLB-ready talent (which I am assuming). They can afford to be over the luxury tax threshold under the current CBA, and a lot of money comes off the books after next season in Schilling. They can sign a couple of the free agent names if they need to. If they ponied up for Zito and a second-tier bat, or Ramirez and Padilla in addition to Young, and grabbed a decent reliever off the heap, it would be okay by me.
Next week: my latest crazy scheme.
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
Sox' Bloated Corpse Floats Down River Styx
When Shaun Marcum took the mound, I know what you were all thinking: "This guy will probably two-hit us". And you were right. With Shaun's pedigree, it was perfectly reasonable to expect him to put together a 10 strike-out, one walk, two-hit shutout for 8 innings. I mean, up until yesterday he had a sparkling 1.8:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and a dominant ERA of 4.92. He is clearly one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Conversely, you might have been thinking: "This Red Sox team is pretty much done". And you'd also have been right. Right now there are very few storylines worth watching on the field, and for me they all revolve around seeing the young kids perform.
We should never see Gabe Kapler on the field in place of David Murphy - this is a useful time for Murphy's development (Tito loves his veterans, though). One has to assume he will make the team next year as the 4th/5th outfielder, and it would behoove the Sox to do everything in their power to get him comfortable in the bigs. He has looked good defensively, one gaffe aside, and he does have a nice swing. Not much you can say about a guy in 19 ABs, but all his peripherals are in line with a guy who isn't yet overmatched. One early-bird reported that he has tremendous batting practice power, so there's that. Not useful, but nice.
Pedroia has made some adjustments in his swing, holding his hands higher and loading the bat better, and has come alive a little bit at the plate. He continues to have simply awful luck, with a BABIP of just .183, despite a decent line-drive percentage at 22.5% (to give an example, Loretta's LD % is 27.2 but he's hitting 100 points better). His 7% K rate is the best on the team.
McAdam has a good story on the two positional players here. The Pawtucket Times has a heartwarming article on Loretta's helping Pedroia ease into the majors. Again, Loretta shows what a professional and stand-up guy he is. If only his legs weren't made of cement, I'd keep him on this team until he retires.
Another, less happy storyline that has come up in recent weeks revolves around the Red Sox coaches. There has been a lot of message-board speculation around the various coaches recently, mostly focused on the pitching coaches. The media (well, McAdam, with the Worcester G & T commenting also) have recently unearthed some comments pointing at Papa Jack, article here. It appears Papa Jack is not, um, helpful if you aren't hitting well, which, to me, is kind of important. When you are hitting well, one would sort of think the coach's job is pretty much just to say things like "good hit", which even I can probably do fairly well (my Meyers-Briggs test be damned). Personally, I've long thought his "one size fits all" hitting approach was particularly damaging to a guy like Crisp who got here by relying on his natural abilities and "doing his thing", as it were. We'll see; he strikes me as the Lee Trevino of the Red Sox.
The complaints against the pitching coaches stem from the frankly craptacular performances by players who fans felt should have done better. Craig Hansen in particular has looked like a shadow of the kid the Sox signed out of St. Johns, and has been tinkering with his mechanics essentially his entire time as a pro. Beckett has obviously struggled until recently making a couple changes (delivery, more two-seamers) that one could argue should have been made much sooner. And recently Cla Meredith attributed his success to moving away from what the Sox staff had indicated should be his approach. Link to the Olney blog is here (reg. required), but the highlight is:
Apparently we will learn the day after the season ends who will stay and who will go. The "charges" against Papa Jack are pretty damning, and since he has about 47 hitting DVDs out there I'm sure he'll be all-right, so I'm guessing he's gone. I think I'd like to see some changes just to shake things up and add a little life. This was not an impassioned team this year, and while the White Sox have proven that even passion (or, depending on your perspective, insanity) doesn't win every year, it's kind of nice to have.
Conversely, you might have been thinking: "This Red Sox team is pretty much done". And you'd also have been right. Right now there are very few storylines worth watching on the field, and for me they all revolve around seeing the young kids perform.
We should never see Gabe Kapler on the field in place of David Murphy - this is a useful time for Murphy's development (Tito loves his veterans, though). One has to assume he will make the team next year as the 4th/5th outfielder, and it would behoove the Sox to do everything in their power to get him comfortable in the bigs. He has looked good defensively, one gaffe aside, and he does have a nice swing. Not much you can say about a guy in 19 ABs, but all his peripherals are in line with a guy who isn't yet overmatched. One early-bird reported that he has tremendous batting practice power, so there's that. Not useful, but nice.
Pedroia has made some adjustments in his swing, holding his hands higher and loading the bat better, and has come alive a little bit at the plate. He continues to have simply awful luck, with a BABIP of just .183, despite a decent line-drive percentage at 22.5% (to give an example, Loretta's LD % is 27.2 but he's hitting 100 points better). His 7% K rate is the best on the team.
McAdam has a good story on the two positional players here. The Pawtucket Times has a heartwarming article on Loretta's helping Pedroia ease into the majors. Again, Loretta shows what a professional and stand-up guy he is. If only his legs weren't made of cement, I'd keep him on this team until he retires.
Another, less happy storyline that has come up in recent weeks revolves around the Red Sox coaches. There has been a lot of message-board speculation around the various coaches recently, mostly focused on the pitching coaches. The media (well, McAdam, with the Worcester G & T commenting also) have recently unearthed some comments pointing at Papa Jack, article here. It appears Papa Jack is not, um, helpful if you aren't hitting well, which, to me, is kind of important. When you are hitting well, one would sort of think the coach's job is pretty much just to say things like "good hit", which even I can probably do fairly well (my Meyers-Briggs test be damned). Personally, I've long thought his "one size fits all" hitting approach was particularly damaging to a guy like Crisp who got here by relying on his natural abilities and "doing his thing", as it were. We'll see; he strikes me as the Lee Trevino of the Red Sox.
The complaints against the pitching coaches stem from the frankly craptacular performances by players who fans felt should have done better. Craig Hansen in particular has looked like a shadow of the kid the Sox signed out of St. Johns, and has been tinkering with his mechanics essentially his entire time as a pro. Beckett has obviously struggled until recently making a couple changes (delivery, more two-seamers) that one could argue should have been made much sooner. And recently Cla Meredith attributed his success to moving away from what the Sox staff had indicated should be his approach. Link to the Olney blog is here (reg. required), but the highlight is:
- "He decided to bag some of what the Red Sox development staff had tried to encourage him to do. Right-handed submarine pitchers often have trouble against left-handed hitters because the left-handers see the ball longer, and the Red Sox had pushed Meredith to focus on throwing the ball inside to lefties -- to jam them. After being dealt to the Padres, Meredith decided to go with his own approach: Keep the ball away from them, sinking the ball to the outside corner."
Apparently we will learn the day after the season ends who will stay and who will go. The "charges" against Papa Jack are pretty damning, and since he has about 47 hitting DVDs out there I'm sure he'll be all-right, so I'm guessing he's gone. I think I'd like to see some changes just to shake things up and add a little life. This was not an impassioned team this year, and while the White Sox have proven that even passion (or, depending on your perspective, insanity) doesn't win every year, it's kind of nice to have.
Monday, September 18, 2006
Sea Dogs clinch EL Title; Sox take two from NY
Sea Dogs Win! Sea Dogs Win!
Yesterday the Sea Dogs beat Akron in Game 5 of the Eastern League championships to win their first title, behind an eight-inning, 3 ER start from Devern Hansack. It marked the first time Hansack had gone deeper than seven innings in his career. Immediately after the game Hansack was called up to Boston and has been added to the 40. A big day for the Nicaraguan. Game story is here.
Keoni De Renne's bases-loaded triple in the third turned out to be the back-breaker. It was De Renne's first triple of the season, and in fact just his eighth extra-base hit. After the game Keoni was notified that he would not be called up to Boston. Probably ever. Still, a clutch performance by the diminutive Hawaiian.
Personally, I think this is a huge victory for the Sea Dogs and the Sox organization. This sort of playoff experience is great for the prospects on that team, and there are a few who we are hoping will make an impression with the BoSox, notably Jacoby Ellsbury, Brandon Moss, and new guy George Kotteras. Edgar Martinez and Chad Spann are also MLB hopefuls but missed the series. It's even more impressive that Portland pulled off the win without these key cogs. I wish to god NESN would televise these games, but apparently they can't, because they are retarded. Or maybe there's a more technical reason.
Sox Sweep Doubleheader
Yesterday was kind of fun, although meaningless, wasn't it? Always nice to take two at the Toilet, even though the Yanks will shortly buy another division win. The reason it's nice is because the real losers are Yankee fans, and whenever they lose, I'm happy. I know there are good Yanks fans out there, because I've met some of them, but often even those guys are apologists for Yankee spending - the sense of entitlement is in their DNA, like expansive body hair. It makes me crazy. It annoys and embarrasses me that the Sox spend $70 Million more than Oakland and KC, and all the rest. I feel that each time we lose - especially to them - it adds insult to injury to everyone involved, to all of baseball. Not Yankee fans - they believe that not only is the fiscal lopsidedness their right, they believe it is a moral imperative. They're baseball's version of the Duke brothers in Trading Places.
Anyway, off the soapbox and back to baseball, or what passes for baseball in the Bronx. We probably won't get a salary cap imposed in this space. Torre didn't play his full contingent in either game yesterday, resting his players for the upcoming playoffs. So, we didn't really take down the $200 Million machine in all it's fullness. Still, there were a few high points for the Sox to take away from the wins.
Number one, Kyle Snyder put together another good start, going five innings, striking out seven, and only giving up a couple runs. Moreover, he bailed himself out of a couple jams, including a bases-loaded nightmare that would have caused him to implode just a few weeks back. I am starting to believe this kid can be a decent #5 starter. Certainly, for the money, we have to keep him next year. There doesn't seem to be a predictive "Kyle Snyder Face"; that's good.
Number two, Pedroia had a clutch pinch-hit double for an RBI, and looks much more comfortable at the plate. He also jacked a Mussina pitch about 400 feet down the line, just missing an HR, in the second game. Let the DPed are begin.
Number three, Crisp hit the ball well and made a spectacular catch to rob Mr. Potato Head Jorge Posada ("You say potato, I say Posada") of a tater. Everyone in this organization needs him to perform well, and I think he's finally settling in. I for one will be disappointed if we pull the plug on him in the offseason. He may (will) never be a superstar but we have not yet seen what he can bring to this ballclub.
Lastly, the Sox dingers. David Murphy hit his first ML homerun in the first game, and Big Papi hit his 49th of the season. With Manny out his quest for Fifty hit a bit of a snag, but he'll pull it off somehow. He's Big Papi, and if you won't give him strikes to hit, he'll golf your weak-ass junk pitches out of the yard. He is tired of walking. I can say this because he and I talk a lot, usually with me asking him questions and taking his non-responses for affirmatives.
The Twinkies are next, and this series is going to be the tough one. We are extremely fortunate they shut Liriano down. Let's hope Wake gets some of that old magic back tonight.
Yesterday the Sea Dogs beat Akron in Game 5 of the Eastern League championships to win their first title, behind an eight-inning, 3 ER start from Devern Hansack. It marked the first time Hansack had gone deeper than seven innings in his career. Immediately after the game Hansack was called up to Boston and has been added to the 40. A big day for the Nicaraguan. Game story is here.
Keoni De Renne's bases-loaded triple in the third turned out to be the back-breaker. It was De Renne's first triple of the season, and in fact just his eighth extra-base hit. After the game Keoni was notified that he would not be called up to Boston. Probably ever. Still, a clutch performance by the diminutive Hawaiian.
Personally, I think this is a huge victory for the Sea Dogs and the Sox organization. This sort of playoff experience is great for the prospects on that team, and there are a few who we are hoping will make an impression with the BoSox, notably Jacoby Ellsbury, Brandon Moss, and new guy George Kotteras. Edgar Martinez and Chad Spann are also MLB hopefuls but missed the series. It's even more impressive that Portland pulled off the win without these key cogs. I wish to god NESN would televise these games, but apparently they can't, because they are retarded. Or maybe there's a more technical reason.
Sox Sweep Doubleheader
Yesterday was kind of fun, although meaningless, wasn't it? Always nice to take two at the Toilet, even though the Yanks will shortly buy another division win. The reason it's nice is because the real losers are Yankee fans, and whenever they lose, I'm happy. I know there are good Yanks fans out there, because I've met some of them, but often even those guys are apologists for Yankee spending - the sense of entitlement is in their DNA, like expansive body hair. It makes me crazy. It annoys and embarrasses me that the Sox spend $70 Million more than Oakland and KC, and all the rest. I feel that each time we lose - especially to them - it adds insult to injury to everyone involved, to all of baseball. Not Yankee fans - they believe that not only is the fiscal lopsidedness their right, they believe it is a moral imperative. They're baseball's version of the Duke brothers in Trading Places.
Anyway, off the soapbox and back to baseball, or what passes for baseball in the Bronx. We probably won't get a salary cap imposed in this space. Torre didn't play his full contingent in either game yesterday, resting his players for the upcoming playoffs. So, we didn't really take down the $200 Million machine in all it's fullness. Still, there were a few high points for the Sox to take away from the wins.
Number one, Kyle Snyder put together another good start, going five innings, striking out seven, and only giving up a couple runs. Moreover, he bailed himself out of a couple jams, including a bases-loaded nightmare that would have caused him to implode just a few weeks back. I am starting to believe this kid can be a decent #5 starter. Certainly, for the money, we have to keep him next year. There doesn't seem to be a predictive "Kyle Snyder Face"; that's good.
Number two, Pedroia had a clutch pinch-hit double for an RBI, and looks much more comfortable at the plate. He also jacked a Mussina pitch about 400 feet down the line, just missing an HR, in the second game. Let the DPed are begin.
Number three, Crisp hit the ball well and made a spectacular catch to rob Mr. Potato Head Jorge Posada ("You say potato, I say Posada") of a tater. Everyone in this organization needs him to perform well, and I think he's finally settling in. I for one will be disappointed if we pull the plug on him in the offseason. He may (will) never be a superstar but we have not yet seen what he can bring to this ballclub.
Lastly, the Sox dingers. David Murphy hit his first ML homerun in the first game, and Big Papi hit his 49th of the season. With Manny out his quest for Fifty hit a bit of a snag, but he'll pull it off somehow. He's Big Papi, and if you won't give him strikes to hit, he'll golf your weak-ass junk pitches out of the yard. He is tired of walking. I can say this because he and I talk a lot, usually with me asking him questions and taking his non-responses for affirmatives.
The Twinkies are next, and this series is going to be the tough one. We are extremely fortunate they shut Liriano down. Let's hope Wake gets some of that old magic back tonight.
Friday, September 15, 2006
Pedroia Not Winning Lottery
It goes without saying that when you come up and hit .122 in your first 18 games, people are going to go batshit and generally act like you molested their sister. Or, maybe that just happens around Fenway, or maybe it happens anywhere if you're ARod, regardless of your stats. At any rate, the Dustin Pedroia bandwagon has not left the carport.
Let's look at some of Pedroia's peripherals though. In point of fact, his low numbers can at least partially be attributed to simple bad luck. His BABIP (BPA), or Batting Average on Balls In Play, is just .119. Average is around .290. To some degree this can be explained by his not hitting the ball hard in some at bats - Wily Mo's BABIP is .410 for example, because even his grounders get through the infield in a hurry - but in many cases it's just bad luck, and some spectacular defensive plays. We all remember the Anaheim series.
Pedroia is only striking out once every 11 ABs, which at 9% ties him for best on the team. This is a key indicator. He's not walking as much as expected but once he settles down from this tough beginning he'll start taking more pitches and getting on base, and I think we'll all be satisfied with having him on the team. He has nothing left to prove in AAA, that much is certain.
This brings up the next question, which is what do we do with Loretta next year? Defensively he turns the double-play well but his range is atrocious. Still, he's far from the worst available. Offensively you know what you're going to get, but you'll probably get it with DP, and maybe a bit more. Loretta would really just be a back-up player next year, IMO, but would that be acceptable to him? There are probably 6-10 teams that would benefit more from having him start over their incumbent. He's a better bat than Cora, although Cora is better defensively, and they're both smart baseball guys who are great to have in the clubhouse. We'll see how it plays out.
Portland Game Three
At 6pm ET today Portland plays game three of their playoff series against Akron. The Sea Dogs lead 2-0 in the series and coule clinch the Eastern League title with a win today. Supposedly you can listen free from WBAE here.
Andrew Dobies gets the start for Portland. He was a 3rd round draft pick back in 2004 out of UVa. He's a work in progress who has a tendency to give up the big innings, but reports are he's recently added a cut fastball that has helped him mitigate this.
Sox Head Into Bronx
There isn't much to say about this mismatch. Really, the only game we should even have a chance at winning is the Tavarez start (I have stopped referring to him as the Anti-Christ after he told me it hurt his feelings and he couldn't face his kids - also after he stopped sucking). Tonight's "Tee-Ball By Beckett" start could be nigh on unwatchable. But I'll still watch it, because we repealed the Prohibition Act.
So, in absence of a win, here are a list of things you can still root for in the Sox-Spanks series:
Let's look at some of Pedroia's peripherals though. In point of fact, his low numbers can at least partially be attributed to simple bad luck. His BABIP (BPA), or Batting Average on Balls In Play, is just .119. Average is around .290. To some degree this can be explained by his not hitting the ball hard in some at bats - Wily Mo's BABIP is .410 for example, because even his grounders get through the infield in a hurry - but in many cases it's just bad luck, and some spectacular defensive plays. We all remember the Anaheim series.
Pedroia is only striking out once every 11 ABs, which at 9% ties him for best on the team. This is a key indicator. He's not walking as much as expected but once he settles down from this tough beginning he'll start taking more pitches and getting on base, and I think we'll all be satisfied with having him on the team. He has nothing left to prove in AAA, that much is certain.
This brings up the next question, which is what do we do with Loretta next year? Defensively he turns the double-play well but his range is atrocious. Still, he's far from the worst available. Offensively you know what you're going to get, but you'll probably get it with DP, and maybe a bit more. Loretta would really just be a back-up player next year, IMO, but would that be acceptable to him? There are probably 6-10 teams that would benefit more from having him start over their incumbent. He's a better bat than Cora, although Cora is better defensively, and they're both smart baseball guys who are great to have in the clubhouse. We'll see how it plays out.
Portland Game Three
At 6pm ET today Portland plays game three of their playoff series against Akron. The Sea Dogs lead 2-0 in the series and coule clinch the Eastern League title with a win today. Supposedly you can listen free from WBAE here.
Andrew Dobies gets the start for Portland. He was a 3rd round draft pick back in 2004 out of UVa. He's a work in progress who has a tendency to give up the big innings, but reports are he's recently added a cut fastball that has helped him mitigate this.
Sox Head Into Bronx
There isn't much to say about this mismatch. Really, the only game we should even have a chance at winning is the Tavarez start (I have stopped referring to him as the Anti-Christ after he told me it hurt his feelings and he couldn't face his kids - also after he stopped sucking). Tonight's "Tee-Ball By Beckett" start could be nigh on unwatchable. But I'll still watch it, because we repealed the Prohibition Act.
So, in absence of a win, here are a list of things you can still root for in the Sox-Spanks series:
- Wily Mo Pena hits a 600-foot home run into the parking lot which strikes a Yankee fan in the head, thereby stopping an in-progress mugging.
- Bobby Abreu's gigantic ass attacks and consumes Randy Johnson before it can be stopped.
- ARod strikes out 5 times in a single game and is mauled by angry Yankee fans on his way out of the stadium. He placates them with free haircare products.
- Kyle Snyder performs the Wizard of Oz number "If I Only Had A Brain" in between innings.
- During a bench-clearing melee Don Zimmer appears from nowhere and attacks Julian Tavarez - you know how this ends.
- Manny is called upon to pinch-hit and play an inning in left, and urinates against the left-field fence.
- Jason Giambi spontaneously explodes into a massive liquid spray of equal parts HGH, grease, sweat, and guilt.
- Derek Jeter comes out of the closet before the first game, saying "Some of you may think less of me now that you know I'm gay, but look at it this way - at least I don't throw like Damon."
Friday, September 08, 2006
Newsflash! Murray Chass Revealed To Be Twelve-Year Old Boy
In a stunning series of events, it has been revealed that incompetent sports "writer" Murray Chass has been dead for years, and is in fact a twelve-year old Yankees fan who managed to hack into Chass' NY Times corporate network account.
Chass, best known while he was alive for his ability to like bagels AND donuts, made the sports scene while covering the Yankees (and to a lesser degree high society badminton) in 1969 with his article "Amazing Mets Win World Series; Yankees Still Better". Chass' ability to drive circulation allowed Times editors to dispense with the laborious processes involved in fact-checking and accountability, which just increased Chass' already prolific ability to spew forth poorly constructed drivel. New Yorkers could not get enough.
It has seemed that Murray ("Shiny Murray" as he's known to Mary Tyler Moore fans) would always be there for Yankees fans and others with a low-grade education, and in voice he has, but since the recent unmasking of twelve-year old Barry L. Iterrit, there are now more questions than answers.
Thus far Barry has refused to answer the question everyone is asking: "WHEN?" We don't know how long Barry has been churning out the spurious articles, but we do know his heart was in the right place. When asked why, he responded:
"When I found out, my first thought was that my Dad might go crazy and do something stupid, so I decided to just, you know, fake one article or maybe two to buy some time. I figured the paper would replace Murray with someone else my Dad could understand, like that guy who wrote 'Everybody Poops', or Joan Rivers. I was just trying to help. We Yankee fans need Murray to feel good."
At this point, we only know that the charade has been going on at least since 2003. That's when Barry hired James Avery, best known for his role as Will Smith's father on 'Fresh Prince", to portray Chass at a ceremony to receive the 2003 J.G. Taylor Spink Award. When investigators pointed out that Avery was African-American and Chass not, Iterrit replied "he was the best I could do". Low turnout and an open bar at the awards ceremony are attributed to the success of the impersonation.
For now, the investigation goes on, but that can't succor fans, players, and former clinch George Steinbrenner, who are reeling. One Yankee player who requested anonymity stated:
"I don't know what to think. For a while I wondered about the quotes, I mean, they made no sense and I couldn't remember saying any of them, but I just figured that was Murray's way. He was always pulling for us and bashing - I mean really, savagely bashing - the other teams, so it just seemed best to go with it. I guess in retrospect it should have been obvious that the writing, and the agenda, was juvenile, but it's tough enough remembering to take the HGH without...wait....ummmm...nevermind."
The stunning news of the hoax might have caused upheaval throughout Yankee-opolis, but once again a familiar face saved the day. Boss George Steinbrenner stepped up and reassured everyone, everywhere, that the organization would go on. He made a statement yesterday afternoon from his vacation bunker outside Berlin, saying:
"We acknowledge that this is a difficult time for the Yankee family. Rest assured that Murray - er, Barry - will remain on the Yankee payroll - er, New York Times payroll - until further notice. It is the message that is important, and the message will remain."
Follow-up questions, including "what is the message?", "is that a full turtleneck or a dickie?", and "do you ever shampoo?" were met with silence, and in one case, a hired thug beating.
Note from author: This is a parody. Murray is still with us, and sadly, still writing.
Chass, best known while he was alive for his ability to like bagels AND donuts, made the sports scene while covering the Yankees (and to a lesser degree high society badminton) in 1969 with his article "Amazing Mets Win World Series; Yankees Still Better". Chass' ability to drive circulation allowed Times editors to dispense with the laborious processes involved in fact-checking and accountability, which just increased Chass' already prolific ability to spew forth poorly constructed drivel. New Yorkers could not get enough.
It has seemed that Murray ("Shiny Murray" as he's known to Mary Tyler Moore fans) would always be there for Yankees fans and others with a low-grade education, and in voice he has, but since the recent unmasking of twelve-year old Barry L. Iterrit, there are now more questions than answers.
Thus far Barry has refused to answer the question everyone is asking: "WHEN?" We don't know how long Barry has been churning out the spurious articles, but we do know his heart was in the right place. When asked why, he responded:
"When I found out, my first thought was that my Dad might go crazy and do something stupid, so I decided to just, you know, fake one article or maybe two to buy some time. I figured the paper would replace Murray with someone else my Dad could understand, like that guy who wrote 'Everybody Poops', or Joan Rivers. I was just trying to help. We Yankee fans need Murray to feel good."
At this point, we only know that the charade has been going on at least since 2003. That's when Barry hired James Avery, best known for his role as Will Smith's father on 'Fresh Prince", to portray Chass at a ceremony to receive the 2003 J.G. Taylor Spink Award. When investigators pointed out that Avery was African-American and Chass not, Iterrit replied "he was the best I could do". Low turnout and an open bar at the awards ceremony are attributed to the success of the impersonation.
For now, the investigation goes on, but that can't succor fans, players, and former clinch George Steinbrenner, who are reeling. One Yankee player who requested anonymity stated:
"I don't know what to think. For a while I wondered about the quotes, I mean, they made no sense and I couldn't remember saying any of them, but I just figured that was Murray's way. He was always pulling for us and bashing - I mean really, savagely bashing - the other teams, so it just seemed best to go with it. I guess in retrospect it should have been obvious that the writing, and the agenda, was juvenile, but it's tough enough remembering to take the HGH without...wait....ummmm...nevermind."
The stunning news of the hoax might have caused upheaval throughout Yankee-opolis, but once again a familiar face saved the day. Boss George Steinbrenner stepped up and reassured everyone, everywhere, that the organization would go on. He made a statement yesterday afternoon from his vacation bunker outside Berlin, saying:
"We acknowledge that this is a difficult time for the Yankee family. Rest assured that Murray - er, Barry - will remain on the Yankee payroll - er, New York Times payroll - until further notice. It is the message that is important, and the message will remain."
Follow-up questions, including "what is the message?", "is that a full turtleneck or a dickie?", and "do you ever shampoo?" were met with silence, and in one case, a hired thug beating.
Note from author: This is a parody. Murray is still with us, and sadly, still writing.
Thursday, September 07, 2006
Fun On The Farm
As the big league club re-enacts the Great London Fire, I hope people aren't missing the great stories we have going on in the minors. Currently Portland and Wilmington are in the playoffs with Lowell still fighting for a spot.
Tonight Portland evened up the series against Trenton by pounding the Yankee wannabees by a score of 10-3. New guy George Kottaras DHed and went 2-4 with a HR and a stolen base. Ellsbury went 2-4 with 2 RBIs, both hits coming in the 7th when Portland knocked out starter Tyler Clippard and scored six runs. Seadog starter (and resurgent semi-prospect) Tommy Hottovy pitched six innings and held the Thunder to 3 ER. The final game in the series is tomorrow.
In Wilmington, things didn't turn out so rosy. Michael Bowden pitched extremely well, but his team disappoints him as Wilmington fell to Frederick 2-1. Bowden went 5.1 IP, allowed just one hit (but gave up three walks), and struck out 5. Both runs scored were the result of errors, although Bowden was charged with the first run.
The first run scored when Mark Wagner committed a throwing error on a steal attempt by Paco "Don't Call Me Taco" Figueroa. Paco would score from third on a groundball single by the next batter. Bowden got out of the inning with a routine GB and then a swinging K.
The second run scored when a fielding error by second-baseman Iggy Suarez allowed Pete Maestrales to score from second (Iggy has been "wedgied" in punishment and may miss tomorrow's game after complaining of a "broken asscrack"). Justin Masterson, who was promoted two stops to Wilmington from Lowell, came in and induced the GDP to close out the inning, and went the next 3.2 innings without incident. He struck out 2, walked one, and allowed zero hits. If you haven't heard it elsewhere, let me be the first to say it: Masterson is the shit. I pray he can be developed into a starter, and then not traded (not necessarily in that order).
The Blue Rocks' bats were silenced by Frederick pitcher Craig Anderson, who at 5-1, 4.78 for the season wasn't supposed to pitch 7 innings and give up just 5 hits and a run, but Aussies are a crafty bunch, as we all know. Natale, Lowrie, Johnson, Wagner and Suarez all singled for Wilmington, and Suarez added a BB (not enough to save his asscrack, sadly).
Otness, Bell and Corsaletti went 0/3. Corsaletti also walked and scored. Easy Andy Pinckney took the 0/4 collar and struck out twice to earn the trip to Dairy Queen. Even as we speak, he is morosely eating his Dilly Bar and gearing up to have a huge day tomorrow.
In Lowell, the newly-enhanced Spinners team beat curious Scottish low-A team Aberdeen 6-1. Kris Johnson, Jordan Craft, Dustin Richardson and Josh Papelbon combined for the win, allowing no earned runs. Note: I linked to Johnson's Sox Prospects page instead of directly to the stats page because his picture looks like he's headed straight for Death Row.
Hot bat Mike Jones and Jonathan Still, who DHed, combined for 5 hits and 4 RBIs in the game. Manny Arambarris walked three times, which should only improve his .365 OBP. Little unusual in a #3 hitter, but at least he's showing patience.
In most cases, if we don't pay attention to these guys now we never will, since the vast majority will never make The Show. But for now, it's the perfect cure for a crappy Boston Red Sox season, and it might just be the light at the end of the tunnel.
Tonight Portland evened up the series against Trenton by pounding the Yankee wannabees by a score of 10-3. New guy George Kottaras DHed and went 2-4 with a HR and a stolen base. Ellsbury went 2-4 with 2 RBIs, both hits coming in the 7th when Portland knocked out starter Tyler Clippard and scored six runs. Seadog starter (and resurgent semi-prospect) Tommy Hottovy pitched six innings and held the Thunder to 3 ER. The final game in the series is tomorrow.
In Wilmington, things didn't turn out so rosy. Michael Bowden pitched extremely well, but his team disappoints him as Wilmington fell to Frederick 2-1. Bowden went 5.1 IP, allowed just one hit (but gave up three walks), and struck out 5. Both runs scored were the result of errors, although Bowden was charged with the first run.
The first run scored when Mark Wagner committed a throwing error on a steal attempt by Paco "Don't Call Me Taco" Figueroa. Paco would score from third on a groundball single by the next batter. Bowden got out of the inning with a routine GB and then a swinging K.
The second run scored when a fielding error by second-baseman Iggy Suarez allowed Pete Maestrales to score from second (Iggy has been "wedgied" in punishment and may miss tomorrow's game after complaining of a "broken asscrack"). Justin Masterson, who was promoted two stops to Wilmington from Lowell, came in and induced the GDP to close out the inning, and went the next 3.2 innings without incident. He struck out 2, walked one, and allowed zero hits. If you haven't heard it elsewhere, let me be the first to say it: Masterson is the shit. I pray he can be developed into a starter, and then not traded (not necessarily in that order).
The Blue Rocks' bats were silenced by Frederick pitcher Craig Anderson, who at 5-1, 4.78 for the season wasn't supposed to pitch 7 innings and give up just 5 hits and a run, but Aussies are a crafty bunch, as we all know. Natale, Lowrie, Johnson, Wagner and Suarez all singled for Wilmington, and Suarez added a BB (not enough to save his asscrack, sadly).
Otness, Bell and Corsaletti went 0/3. Corsaletti also walked and scored. Easy Andy Pinckney took the 0/4 collar and struck out twice to earn the trip to Dairy Queen. Even as we speak, he is morosely eating his Dilly Bar and gearing up to have a huge day tomorrow.
In Lowell, the newly-enhanced Spinners team beat curious Scottish low-A team Aberdeen 6-1. Kris Johnson, Jordan Craft, Dustin Richardson and Josh Papelbon combined for the win, allowing no earned runs. Note: I linked to Johnson's Sox Prospects page instead of directly to the stats page because his picture looks like he's headed straight for Death Row.
Hot bat Mike Jones and Jonathan Still, who DHed, combined for 5 hits and 4 RBIs in the game. Manny Arambarris walked three times, which should only improve his .365 OBP. Little unusual in a #3 hitter, but at least he's showing patience.
In most cases, if we don't pay attention to these guys now we never will, since the vast majority will never make The Show. But for now, it's the perfect cure for a crappy Boston Red Sox season, and it might just be the light at the end of the tunnel.
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